NRL 2012 - Round 7

[Lahrio]

4pts Raiders +7.5pts @ 1.92 (IASBet) 3pts Raiders - Most Metres Gained @ 2.50 (IASBet) 3pts J. Hodges to score anytime @ 2.00 (IASBet) 3pts Broncos Completion Under 77.5% @ 1.90 (IASBet) 1pt Canberra - 17.5pts @ 11.00 (IASBet) OK, so quite a few bets on this game. I'll start with Peter Wallace. He has been playing exceptionally well in the opening rounds of the year, and his kick metres have really helped Brisbane get on the front foot. Ben Hunt is no slouch, and the former Toyota Cup POTY should do a good jb of filling the shoes of Wallace, but there is no substitute for experience. The Broncos will be playing with a halves pair that have very little First Grade experience between them. They will be desperate for their pack to give them plenty of room to work in. I honestly don't think Te'o being suspended will have a huge influence on the game, as the Broncos pack has more then enough quality to cover for losses like that. I have said most weeks that the Raiders do have a habit of running in points when they are in form, so I have put a sneaky point on a 10/1 shot as well. :p As for the other bets, the Raiders are ranked second in metres gained so far this season, and despite coming up against a decent pack in the Broncos, I see no reason why they should be priced out at 2.50. I find bookies tend to allocate a higher correlation between the odds of this market and the Head to Head market than is justified. The Broncos have played well but they have by no means been an error free side this year. They sit around mid-table when it comes to completions, and unless you are the Storm, completing close to 80% of sets is generally not the norm. Finally, I have gone with Justin Hodges to cross the stripe in this game. He is an extremely elusive centre and he is up against a player who is well known to have defensive deficiencies in Jarrod Croker. This seems like a real mismatch, and I would not be surprised at all to see the Broncos target this side of the Raiders defence tonight (just as the Cowboys did a couple weeks ago). 4pts Dragons -9.5pts @ 2.70 (IASBet) Well the Knights haven't lived up to expectation so far this year, and they certainly struggled badly against a shockingly bad Eels outfit last weekend. Just about any other NRL team would have put 30+ on that Eels side, but Newcastle somehow managed to only score 14. The Dragons weren't much better, but they were playing in a fiercely contested derby game against the Sharks, who are on fire at the moment. I can't see the Knight forward pack putting up such a performance, particularly as the parochial Dragons home crowd should be able to win a few quick play the balls for their side, and maybe a penalty or two as well. I personally think the Knights are still well in the competition this year, but they will need to spend a few more rounds getting used to the new structure Wayne Bennett has them playing under.

[blackcrow]

Re: NRL 2012 - Round 7 Dragons win by 1-12 margin @ 3.05 centrebet Neither side in good form, with both showing inconcistencies in their play. Dragons have lost their last two games to the Broncos and Sharks, but like them to bounce back here, as the Knights did not look that good in edging out a poor Eels side. Though Mullen played well for them, the loss of Gidley will tell, as the Dragons look to have too much for them in creating openings, especially with Hornby and Soward in the halves. The Dragons beat them in round 1 in extra time by a point and can see another close win by them here Broncos win by 1-12 margin @ 3.05 centrebet Brisbane have won 4 straight and are in good form as they are a patient side that does tend not to make too many mistakes. The Raiders have also been playing well but have two less days to prepare for this, and do not have a good record in Brisbane, having lost 6 of their last 7 games there. Also with Campese under an injury cloud, then they do struggle to create if he does not play Record: 16-27 (+0.43)

[blackcrow]

Re: NRL 2012 - Round 7

Dragons win by 1-12 margin @ 3.05 :) Broncos win by 1-12 margin @ 3.05 :(

Storm -13.5 @ 2.15 centrebet Storm are rolling and cannot be stopped at the moment. They rack up the yards down the middle and when Cronk gets the ball, Slater is always lurking around for the pass or kick into space. No team has been able to stop this, and doubt the Bulldogs can here, who are coming off a 20-10 loss to the Rabbitohs last week. The Bulldogs do not have a good record against the Storm in Melbourne, and like them the home team to be too good once again Roosters @ 2.30 centrebet Roosters have won 4 of their 6 games and are coming off two very good wins over the Titans and Warriors while the Cowboys are coming off a hiding from the Storm. Both teams have good packs and good halves pairings and with the Roosters having a very good overall record over the Cowboys, they look good here, as the Cowboys are too unpredictable for my liking. Sea Eagles -15.5 @ 2.18 centrebet Sea Eagles enjoyed being back home in the demolition of the Panthers on Monday night. Looks like they get back Stewart at fullback, as well as Foran at five-eight, so they will be even stronger for this game against a Titans side that are competitive for a half and then fall to bits after that. They do not have the backs to go with the Sea Eagles here, who should be too strong for them Record: 17-28 (+1.48)

[Lahrio]

Re: NRL 2012 - Round 7 Not a great night for me last night. I was disappointed that Hodges did everything but score a try (in fact he dropped one cold while he was already over the line!). On to a better day hopefully. :) P/L Round 6: -12.30 units P/L Season: +21.32 units 5pts Storm Over 4.5 Tries @ 1.80 (IASBet) 5pts Storm HT/FT @ 1.58 (IASBet) 2.5pts Bulldogs - Most Metres Gained @ 3.40 (IASBet) Storm have been incredible in the opening six rounds, runnings in tries from all over the place. I can't see much reason why that wouldn't continue. Their lesser known forwards have been stepping up to the plate and setting up a platform, but their great form ultimately comes down the the incredible decisions making of Cameron Smith and Cooper Cronk in my opinion. The Storm are a real force at home and I can't see the Bulldogs changing that here, despite being up at the right end of the ladder at the moment. In terms of the third bet, I just think odds of 3.40 are way too high for a team that has been up there with the competition leaders in this stat.

[Lahrio]

Re: NRL 2012 - Round 7 3pts Roosters - Under 74.5% Completions @ 1.90 (IASBet) 2pts Cowboys 13+ @ 3.65 (IASBet) Betting against the Roosters completing their sets has been one of my favourite bets this year. they have rarely been above 70% all year and have regularly been floundering around the 50-60% mark! I don't see why that would change tonight. The Cowboys are coming off a bad loss to the Storm, but they have the quality to put teams to the sword. When they are on form they can outscore anyone by 13 points with players like Sims, Thurston and Bowen on their roster.

[Lahrio]

Re: NRL 2012 - Round 7

3pts Roosters - Under 74.5% Completions @ 1.90 (IASBet) :D 2pts Cowboys 13+ @ 3.65 (IASBet) :D 5pts Storm Over 4.5 Tries @ 1.80 (IASBet) :( 5pts Storm HT/FT @ 1.58 (IASBet) :( 2.5pts Bulldogs - Most Metres Gained @ 3.40 (IASBet) :D

P/L Round 6: -10.30 units P/L Season: +23.32 units

[blackcrow]

Re: NRL 2012 - Round 7

Storm -13.5 @ 2.15 :( Roosters @ 2.30 :( Sea Eagles -15.5 @ 2.18 :(

Record: 17-31 (-1.52) Warriors -5.5 @ 2.03 centrebet Like the Warriors to reverse their recent form as their big pack of forwards come more into this game withthe Rabbitohs now missing several key players for them up front. Warriors have won 7 of their last 9 games at Mt Smart Stadium and if they can limit their mistakes, can see them overwhelming the Rabbitohs in the second half Sharks -7.5 @ 2.03 centrebet Eels back to their recent poor form as they were beaten by the Knights as they looked clueless with the ball. Hard to stay them stopping an inform Sharks side that look like they are working for each other. The Sharks have won 5 of the last 7 meetings and look to be too good for them here Panthers -1.5 @ 2.85 centrebet Tigers are in disarray with plenty of talk of problems within the team. They are not playing for each other and it shows. They struggle to get yards through the forwards and hard to see them staying competitive here with the Panthers, who concede the fewest metres per game than any other side in the competition. With good field position, like them to make the most of this and win this game

[Lahrio]

Re: NRL 2012 - Round 7 Sory for the late/short write-up. 7pts Sharks - Eels Under 36pts @ 1.90 (IASBet) Every Sharks game this year has gone under this. They are an excellent defensive team, and I can't see them piling on to many points despite the Eels poor defence. I see another low-scoring game from the grinding Sharks.

[Lahrio]

Re: NRL 2012 - Round 7 Lol, they are scoring all over the place. Rebounds and all. I'll be lucy if they haven't gone over by HT. :( P/L Round 6: -17.30 units P/L Season: +16.32 units

[blackcrow]

Re: NRL 2012 - Round 7

Warriors -5.5 @ 2.03 :D Sharks -7.5 @ 2.03 :( Panthers -1.5 @ 2.85 :(

Record: 18-33 (-2.49)