England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Apr 13-14

[Shipsupstreets]

[TABLE=class: couponTable]

[TR] [TH=class: firstColumn]Friday 13 April 2012[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Fleetwood Town v Lincoln City (19:30 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 4/11 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 7/2 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 15/2 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]107.32 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Saturday 14 April 2012[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Alfreton Town v Luton Town (15:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 13/5 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 12/5 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1/1 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]106.39 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Barrow v Cambridge United (15:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 9/5 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 12/5 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 7/5 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]106.45 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Darlington v Bath City (15:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1/25 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1/4 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1/25 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]272.31 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Ebbsfleet United v AFC Telford United (15:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 5/4 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 12/5 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 21/10 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]105.70 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Gateshead v Forest Green Rovers (15:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 11/8 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 23/10 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]105.74 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Hayes & Yeading v Mansfield Town (15:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 13/5 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 5/2 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 11/10 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]103.81 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Kidderminster Harriers v Kettering Town (15:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1/25 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1/4 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1/25 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]272.31 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Stockport County v Braintree Town (15:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 11/10 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 12/5 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 23/10 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]107.24 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Tamworth v Southport (15:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 7/3 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 5/2 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 5/4 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]102.66 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Wrexham v Grimsby Town (15:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 5/6 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 13/5 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 10/3 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]105.21 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] York City v Newport County (15:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 4/6 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 13/5 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 4 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]107.00 %[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[maliniok]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Apr 13-14 I like the look of evens about Mansfield at HandY. Mansfield have been in immense form recently. Out of their last 12 games they drew and lost one, both against League Two team still in the Conference Fleetwood. Apart from that they knew no remorse and with their great recent record they will look to guarantee the playoffs with two games to go. Hayes are still in the relegation zone, 4 points from safety so they won't lie down in front of the rivals and will be motivated. Looking at the remaining games though they will know that their real chance will be in the two games against Stockport and Lincoln. The only problem is that Mansfield haven't won yet in Hayes, but since there is now a nice, brand new and typically overpriced for that part of London block of flats at Church Road I think I should check Mansfield record at Woking instead. I wonder what others think about this fixture. By the way I am going to make a quick decision by tomorrow evening as I reckon the odds will be dropping.

[Darran]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Apr 13-14 Its hard to knock what you are saying. Although I do think Hayes need to get something out of this game and cant really afford to wait until the last two matches with a 4 point gap, that could get bigger. However needing and getting are two very different things of course. Goals could be an interesting angle given Hayes are capable of scoring and have to go for the win which could leave them exposed at the back. As for records against teams I think its one of the biggest mistake punters make. History for me has very little influence on what is going to happen in the game taking place and its a lazy stat journalists and pundits trot out to make them sound good. Teams change every year, especially at this level, so even what happened last season doesn't really matter as to what is going to happen a certain match. I saw someone on another forum this season say that one of the reasons he fancied Charlton to beat Halifax in the FA Cup was because of Charlton's record against them. That is a stupid statement on many levels.

[Alexc]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Apr 13-14 Thoughts on Fleetwood, Addpea? Is it that they need a point to win the league (head to head's coming in to play) or three? Been trying to find the answer. Would of seemed a Fleetwood win was surely on the cards, against an average Lincoln.

[Darran]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Apr 13-14 Strictly speaking they need to win to claim the title on Friday. A point means they will be 12 clear of Wrexham and they would have 4 games to play, although they do have a better goal difference. Lincoln have been a funny team of late as they have put the odd decent effort in, but then have looked shocking in others. Im struggling to see anything other than a fairly easy win for Fleetwood though.

[RobbieWinner]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Apr 13-14

Strictly speaking they need to win to claim the title on Friday. A point means they will be 12 clear of Wrexham and they would have 4 games to play' date=' although they do have a better goal difference. Lincoln have been a funny team of late as they have put the odd decent effort in, but then have looked shocking in others. Im struggling to see anything other than a fairly easy win for Fleetwood though.[/quote'] Easy home win, why? You thought the same Vs Wrexham, when you tipped -1. Has that not put you off? They were clearly nervous, and the occasion got to them, but not taking anything away from Wrexham, who deserved to win. Maybe Fleetwood will learn from this, and play more like themselves tomorrow night, or even bottle it again...

[Darran]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Apr 13-14

Easy home win, why? You thought the same Vs Wrexham, when you tipped -1. Has that not put you off? They were clearly nervous, and the occasion got to them, but not taking anything away from Wrexham, who deserved to win. Maybe Fleetwood will learn from this, and play more like themselves tomorrow night, or even bottle it again...

But Wrexham are 2nd in the table and played much better than they had of late. Lincoln are in a relegation battle, that tells you the difference between the two sides. I dont think the occasion got to them at all, apart from Vardy who missed some good chances and should have been sent off. I am not suggesting a bet yet, but I was just giving my view on Fleetwood when asked. It takes a big leap of faith to suggest Lincoln are going to beat a side who have not lost in the league since early October, whereas if Wrexham played like they can they were always going to be capable of giving them a game.

[Shipsupstreets]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Apr 13-14 I agree with the thought expressed above by maliniok and addpea that Mansfield Town should do okay at Hayes & Yeading United and I'm selling the time of the 2nd Mansfield goal, 70 with Sporting Index. With Kidderminster and Wrexham to face, they are not nailed on for third place and they will see this as an opportunity to improve their goal difference. They've scored twice in five out of nine away games since the turn of the year, and those they didn't included Luton and Fleetwood, who are pretty good defensive units, and at Newport and Tamworth, who are amongst the more organised of the bottom-half sides. Paul Cox is still a touch inflexible tactically for me, but they are in-form side facing a Hayes who are getting used to going down bravely. They rarely threatened at the weekend against a couldn't-be-bothered Cambridge, and in this one they face a well-motivated side who have scored in all but a handful of their away games.

[Darran]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Apr 13-14 Barrow v Cambridge United Taking into consideration what I wrote about Barrow on Monday it will probably come as quite a shock that I am actually going to tip them up this weekend. Having really fancied Southport it was disappointing to see Barrow come back to life and finally get on the score sheet again in a 2-2 draw. Indeed they were actually rather unlucky not to pick up all three points as it was only a dodgy penalty late on which led to Southport’s equaliser. If they can play like that again then they are overpriced against a Cambridge side who are vulnerable looking still. They may have only lost once in their last six but, as I wrote last Saturday, they aren’t really playing very well. I opposed them with Hayes who were pretty lacklustre in the end but Cambridge still couldn’t defeat them. They beat Kettering on Monday but that really doesn’t say much and I just feel a trip to Barrow at this stage of the season isn’t exactly going to be a massive motivator. With Barrow finally showing some fight again on Monday I have to back them at 21/10 with BetVictor. Hayes & Yeading v Mansfield As I wrote above, Hayes were a bit disappointing last week as they struggled to create many chances during the game with Cambridge. They did follow that up by giving Luton a minor scare on Monday in what ended up a 4-2 win for the home side. Hayes have to attempt to win this game as they are still four points from safety and given they are likely to have to go on the attack I can see Mansfield getting lots of chances. Mansfield have been scoring plenty of late and the only team they have not beaten in their last 12 games is Fleetwood (drew and lost to them). They are pretty much guaranteed a play-off spot, but with two much harder games against Wrexham and Kidderminster to come, a win here will mean they can prepare for the play-offs already. For me the only possible reason Mansfield are even money (bwin) is because the bookies perceive Hayes’ need for victory to be greater. The problem is I think if Hayes go for the win it will be more likely that Mansfield will win and it looks a very good bet.

[bartonbank]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Apr 13-14 A couple of plays for me. Firstly the bookies seem to have got carried away with the idea that Luton's win against Hayes last weekend sees them back on form, together with also thinking that their loss at home to York means that Alfreton's performances since the start of the year were the blip rather than their recent loss. Possibly true, but with the home team available at 3.75 with VC I am willing to take a punt that neither view is in fact true. Luton now find themselves in a real battle and, although their destiny is in their own hands with games in hand, their saunter into the playoffs is now a real dogfight they may well struggle to win. I expect a nervy performance from them, especially with Kidderminster having a seeming drop kick for 3 points and York at home to Newport in a Trophy dry run and I will back the home win. Secondly I turn to Wrexham at home to Grimsby. Not to put to fine a point on it we have been gash in recent games, mainly through some fatigue in the ranks coupled with the suspension of two of our five available strikers. However the performance at Fleetwood on Tuesday deserved more than a draw and also showed something else: the manager is not afraid either to drop himself or to make other changes to freshen things up. It worked and we were a far more potent threat going forward, with Glenn Little rolling back the years and Speight scoring his 20th of the season. Defensively we are very sound still (even with a keeper who has his own way of doing some things) and, on Saturday, we face a Grimsby team who HAVE to win to keep their outside chance of a play off place alive. On Tuesday we cut out the long ball crap and, if that is the case again tomorrow and we play it through the midfield, I fancy us being able to soak up whatever Grimsby chuck at us and hit them on the counter if need be. 1.91 on the home win with the league sponsors or Billy Hills for me.

[bartonbank]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Apr 13-14 I should also add that, in relation to the Alfreton game, they are available at 2.5 with several firms in the DNB market and, as Luton have drawn a fair few games away, that is an alternative.

[Shipsupstreets]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Apr 13-14 Two more spread trades for me... I was torn between selling the Gateshead supremacy at 0.1, their mini performance at 21 or the time of the 2nd Forest Green goal today (each play requires a different match scenario to be successful). I've taken the riskier route of selling the time of the 2nd FGR goal at 78 with Sporting, mainly because Gateshead's defence has an uncertain feel about it - they've managed three successive clean sheets at home, but that was against Hayes, Barrow and Bath. FGR's injury list is easing at the business end of the season, and that leaves them with a much stronger bench - another attractive trade is a buy of FGR's team goal minutes because I can see them being much stronger in the last quarter of the game. I've bought the player goal minutes of Tom Elliott at 19 with Sporting. He's been in good nick for Stockport and is really the main man up front now that the excellent Danny Rowe has departed. Braintree are notorious spoilers but defensively they sometimes wilt under pressure - they were superb in the 4-0 thrashing of Barrow last month was the exception to the rule and before that they conceded in ever away match after their equally imperious 4-0 win at Southport. The reasoning is that Stockport - who can be pretty creative at home (though, to be fair, also dreadful) - will create some chances today and Elliott won't be far away.

[Shipsupstreets]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Apr 13-14 No joy for me on the spreads today, with only a small profit on Mansfield not enough to overcome the losses on the FGR and Elliott trades. Good calls by addpea on Mansfield and bartonbank on Alfreton DNB.