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The Open Championship July 19th - 22nd


Aidymac

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Re: The Open Championship July 19th - 22nd

Even though it's Aidymac, I'm going to go on record & say that I totally agree. 20/1 is a crazy price. In fact, in this Open, I'd be going 20/1 the field. Good luck though, Edberg.
Agree? What does that mean, never heard of that word before? :lol
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Re: The Open Championship July 19th - 22nd

Good luck but I'd worry about it being 'easy money'. 4 places in a 21 runner field is never certain but then you factor in the conditions and' date=' for me, it makes the event a bit more of a level playing field. Whilst I hope Poults does well and can see him beating 1 or 2 of the big 3, there's still big challenges to come from the likes of Simon Dyson, Ross Fisher, Robert Rock et al.[/quote'] Dyson at 14's with Boyles does look tempting Russ.
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Re: The Open Championship July 19th - 22nd Yes Agreed,I should never have said easy money,but the rest of the field aint going to have the class to win a tourney of this calibre. Ross Fisher,5th fav,hes best result this season is a 6th in the Wales open.Dyson best finsh is 10th this season. Rock solitary win was in Dubai,the rest has been quite poor. I might just be dismissing the rest of the field to easily,but id taken that lot on against Poulter anytime.

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Re: The Open Championship July 19th - 22nd

Yes Agreed,I should never have said easy money,but the rest of the field aint going to have the class to win a tourney of this calibre. Ross Fisher,5th fav,hes best result this season is a 6th in the Wales open.Dyson best finsh is 10th this season. Rock solitary win was in Dubai,the rest has been quite poor. I might just be dismissing the rest of the field to easily,but id taken that lot on against Poulter anytime.
Poulter has missed the cut three times in the last six years at the open George.
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Re: The Open Championship July 19th - 22nd I actually think Harrington will go really well in this tournament but luckily he's rarely the fastest of starters so hopefully he will be a bit bigger than the current 20/1 after the opening round or two. Anyway my preview.... 2pts ew L.Westwood to win The Open 15/1 Paddy Power (1/4 1-7) 1pt ew E.Els to win The Open 40/1 Stan James (1/4 1-7)

Westwood continues to knock on the door in major championships but as yet the door hasn’t opened. Westwood missed the cut down in Kent last year but prior to that he finished second and third so we know he has the pedigree for links golf and when fairways are needed to be hit Westwood is very much your man as I don’t believe there’s a better driver of a ball in world golf these days. Els was tied for third when the tournament was last held here and the course isn’t too different this week aside from the little added length. The big South African has missed the last two cuts in this tournament but prior to that he had 8 top 10’s in 10 years so his links golf pedigree needs no questioning. Although Els has missed the last two cuts in this event, there’s no doubt in my mind he’s playing a lot better coming into this year’s tournament than he has at any stage in the last two years so I fully expect a good showing from the 2002 champion at a large looking 40/1. Full preview here:

http://www.punterslounge.com/the-open-betting--lee-westwood-can-provide-the-straight-driving-needed-to-win-his-first-major-championship

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Re: The Open Championship July 19th - 22nd

Good and valid point Ted' date='but I still think Poulter has just as good a case as any of the the other runners,Westwood and Donald apart,only time will tell.[/quote'] Let's not forget Poulter was 2nd in the Open 4 years ago, if my memory serves me correctly? This man can play links golf, and you would be a complete fool to rule him out just because he fared poorly on his last 3 Open outings. In saying that, he hasn't set the world alight in the past year or so. But for me, i couldn't rule him out, he is a cagey customer.
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Re: The Open Championship July 19th - 22nd

25/1 1st round leader you'll be on that as well Bowlesy old son.... won't you?
will post up bets tomorrow Ted but ive had the 1st rd leader a couple of times with Jimenez 10/1 and Mcilroy so will have a few on my side !!!
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Re: The Open Championship July 19th - 22nd I'm going to take 4 outrights this week - all with fairly low stakes. 1/10pts Each - Way Rickie Fowler to win - 35/1 with Paddy Power (1/4 odds 1-7) 1/10pts Each - Way Martin Kaymer to win - 40/1 with Paddy Power (1/4 odds 1-7) 0.5/10pts Each - Way Rickie Fowler to win - 55/1 with Paddy Power (1/4 odds 1-7) 0.5/10pts Each - Way Simon Dyson to win - 110/1 with Paddy Power (1/4 odds 1-7) I really fancy Rickie Fowler to go well this week and I think the price should be shorter. In the last couple of Open Championship's he has finished tied for 14th and tied for 5th and I think these are massive plus points despite this years Championship being at a different course. Why? Well he has shown that he can cope with the unpredictable weather (and it is weather he won't encounter too often in America) so to see him put in a solid showing when thousands of miles from his usual courses is impressive. He won his first tournament this year so that should settle his nerves if he is involved on the final day like last year. In total he has recorded 5 top 10 spots so far in 2012 - proof that the form is there. Martin Kaymer is another with a good record in The Open. Over the last 3 years he has posted finishes of T12, T7th and T34th and also has a major in the bag so there isn't as much pressure on his shoulders as some of his main rivals. Last time out he went well in Scotland where he was challlenging for the first 3 rounds before an average display on Sunday prevented him being further up on the leaderboard. Nevertheless, it is good that he comes here clearly in nice touch. At 40/1 I think he is well worth a dabble. Charl Schwartzel has had an ok year so far and has a solid record in majors. He has recorded a couple of top 20 finishes at The Open so clearly doesn't mind the unpredictable nature of them and he obviously knows how to compete on the final day of a major. He always strikes me as having a good temperament and that could be very important this week. 66/1 looks too big for me and he could well be the one who sneaks in under the bigger names - like at Augusta last year - to scoop another big success. Simon Dyson is the biggest price I will take and i've had him in my mind for this tournament for the last couple of weeks. He finished in the top 10 on home soil last year and has been solid enough this season to suggest he could be ready to perform here. He has had 5 top 20's so far in 2012 and last week, like Kaymer, was going well until Sunday when he let a good chance slip away. He has had a good record in British tournaments for long enough now to show a bit of wind and rain doesn't bother him and, at 125/1, I reckon he is definitely worth a small investment.

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Re: The Open Championship July 19th - 22nd A slightly different angle to look at. Danger at Lytham is to the right of the hole in the main, so it's wise to look at those who performed well at the Masters for the winner, as Augusta favours those hitting it right to left. Looking back at the last 3 Opens at Lytham and seeing how those top finishers fared at Augusta in the same year..... 28 players finished in the money in the last 3 Opens at Lytham (ie, Top 7 & ties) 82% (23/28) played in that year's Masters Of the ones, that played in the Masters: 87% (20/23) finished in the Top 30 at Augusta 65% (15/23) finished in the Top 20 43% (10/23) finished in the Top 10 That stat would rule out the likes of Donald, Woods, McIlroy, Johnson, Kaymer, Stricker, Schwartzel & Clarke :ok

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Re: The Open Championship July 19th - 22nd Finishing off my Open portfolio with a string of Top 10 and 1st Round Leader bets. 1st Round Leader Matthew Baldwin 1st Round Leader E/W 1/4 1-5 151 Bet365 Somebody mentioned him earlier about having an early tee time and this is a key reason. Also, he's been very prominent of late, shooting low 1st round scores in a few events and closing well last week with a 5 under 67 in Scotland John Daly 1st Round Leader E/W 1/4 1-5 126 BetVictor Daly has been playing quite well of late and also has an early tee time. I remember him holding a few 9 hole leads in recent events and was well up there mid way through his first round of the Open last year. Outrights/Top 10s Carl Petterson to win 200 Betfair Top 10 @ 14 Betfair He's been in good form this year with a pair of 2nds and a victory. His Open record isn't the best but he does have 1 Top 10 in 6 starts so statistically speaking there's value in the Top 10 betting. Mostly I noted that using Hornet's criteria for Open winners from last year Petterson actually qualifies under all key metrics, so couldn't resist including him on my team for the week. John Huh to win 350 Betfair Top 10 @ 20 Betfair From all reports the rough this week is quite brutal, which immediately makes me think of Huh. He's a tremendously talented young golfer who really excels as an accurate player from tee to green. He's also got a very good short game and not only has he won once this year but he was actually quite unlucky not to win the Texas Valero. A tournament he contended on the final day after opening his tournament with 7 bogeys through 9 holes. To come back from that shows great mental toughness that is going to be needed at a windy, weather affected event like this. Richard Finch @ 1000 Betfair Top 10 @ 65 Betfair Last year when Alex Noren won the Nordea Masters the final round was heavily wind affected. Noren himself shot 5 over on that day and every player in the field that day shot over par... except one. Richard Finch stormed to 2nd after shooting a 3 under that day that included a double bogey. This result has stayed with me and with wind anticipated to play such a huge role this weekend I can't resist having a small something on. Ben Curtis Top 10 @ 9.6 Betfair In addition to his win in the Open, he has a couple more Top 10's and looks to have returned to a similar level of play. He won the Texas Valero this year (an event that has a fair bit of wind to contend with) and has put himself at the pointy end of the leaderboard in several more events. Looks to be nice Top 10 value. Thomas Bjorn Top 10 @ 9.6 Betfair Bjorn has finished in the Top 10 5 times in the Open in 14 starts. He is also having a fairly strong season with 5 Top 10 finishes, including a 2nd last month at the Wales Open.

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Re: The Open Championship July 19th - 22nd Good Luck All Each Way on Simon Dyson @ 125-1 [Coral] Chad Campbell @ 250-1 [Coral] John Huh @ 300-1 [skybet] First two have top ten finishes in an Open,while young buck Huh looks a star in the making

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Re: The Open Championship July 19th - 22nd Will be having my usual multiple on the smaller markets; Will be betting with Bet365, bets odds in brackets; Top Eng: L.Westwood 12/5 (5/2PP): Really wanted to take one at bigger odds but just cant get away from Westwood's consistency in the big tournaments. Not sure about Donald at 5/2 either? Rose is with Tiger for two days and Poulter has is moments but not often enough for me, Robert Rock might surprise one or two. Top Ire: G.Macdowell 16/5 (10/3PP) Price driven selection, McIlroy and Harrington are around 13/8 and poor value, no reason why Gmac should be twice the price. Top Aus: G.Ogilvy 11/2 (6/1 SJ) Cant have Scott at 7/4 so its between Ogilvy and Senden, Ogilvy has more experience of the majors and the safer bet. Top Spain: P.Larrazabal 9/1 (10 Sky) Taking a chance on this one, Larrazabal is a live wire but has improved no end this season and is good value, Garcia will obviously go close but at 5/4 he's not for me. Top Scand: P.Hanson 4/1 (5/1 SpBet) Fancy Hanson to play well this week overall so must be my pick in this section, don't like Jacobsen over in Europe and Bjorn is either very good or very bad. Top SA: C.Schwartzel 9/2 (5/1BVic) Good market this one with Els and Oosty having solid chances too, just think Schwartzel is getting better at playing these type of tournaments, has the temperament if it gets windy. 1pt Lucky 63 (Pays over 8,000 to 10p stakes :eek)

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Re: The Open Championship July 19th - 22nd raphael jaquelin for me.consistent accurate and some great results on tough courses the us open being a good example.8th last year in the open 90s for first round leader at coral 10s and 7 to 2 for top ten and top twenty finnish various firms,and 20s and 50s for top continental euro and top euro respectively.

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Re: The Open Championship July 19th - 22nd Rest of my outrights to go along with these two.....

Anyway my preview.... 2pts ew L.Westwood to win The Open 15/1 Paddy Power (1/4 1-7) 1pt ew E.Els to win The Open 40/1 Stan James (1/4 1-7)

Westwood continues to knock on the door in major championships but as yet the door hasn’t opened. Westwood missed the cut down in Kent last year but prior to that he finished second and third so we know he has the pedigree for links golf and when fairways are needed to be hit Westwood is very much your man as I don’t believe there’s a better driver of a ball in world golf these days. Els was tied for third when the tournament was last held here and the course isn’t too different this week aside from the little added length. The big South African has missed the last two cuts in this tournament but prior to that he had 8 top 10’s in 10 years so his links golf pedigree needs no questioning. Although Els has missed the last two cuts in this event, there’s no doubt in my mind he’s playing a lot better coming into this year’s tournament than he has at any stage in the last two years so I fully expect a good showing from the 2002 champion at a large looking 40/1. Full preview here:

http://www.punterslounge.com/the-open-betting--lee-westwood-can-provide-the-straight-driving-needed-to-win-his-first-major-championship

Just one write up as I've backed them all for the same reason pretty much. 1pt ew G.McDowell to win The Open 36/1 Blue Square (1/4 1-6) 1pt ew R.Fowler to win The Open 40/1 Ladbrokes (1/4 1-6) 1pt ew P.Lawrie to win The Open 80/1 Boylesports (1/4 1-6) 1pt ew B.Curtis to win The Open 100/1 Ladbrokes (1/4 1-6) 0.5pts ew J.Huh to win The Open 250/1 Bet365 (1/4 1-6) Hitting the ball straight off the tee is a real premium this week and Fowler aside these all hit the ball straight as a die with the long stick. Huh, Gmac and Curtis are all in the top 10 for driving accuracy in the US this year which highlights how well they are hitting the ball at the minute. Rickie Fowler isn't the worst with the driver and if he can keep the ball in play enough of the time then he has the iron play and putting stroke to go very well this week. With a premium on finding the fairways I think this group will all go well with all but one of them having contended very strongly in at least one major in their career and multiple majors in some cases.
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Re: The Open Championship July 19th - 22nd Westwood has to be a decent bet. Accuracy is key and his putting will be under less pressure here as hitting fairways is key. Anders Hansen at a big price is playing well at the moment and might just sneak a place at around 150s

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Re: The Open Championship July 19th - 22nd Now it's my turn and I'm getting stuck in to 6 outrights. A.Scott to win The Open, 2pts EW @ 40/1 Paddy Power (1/4 odds 1-7) My main bet and he seems to be a player that has gone under the radar. Inside the World's Top 15, Adam Scott is a player that has the credentials to win an Open. I mentioned earlier in this thread that a player with solid Masters form should be suited by this test so his 8th place finish this year, coupled with his 2nd last year, are real positives. Those results also show he's able to challenge in the Majors too. His Open record ain't great but, equally, isn't too shabby with a couple of top 30 finishes in the last 2 years. Has yet to win this year but has been in decent nick in some top events and is relatively fresh too. Much better tee to green than people give him credit for and has always been a decent putter. With all the spotlight focused elsewhere, this could be the one market leader to surprise people. R.Fowler to win The Open, 1.5pts EW @ 40/1 Ladbrokes (1/4 odds 1-6) 2 Opens and 2 top 15 finishes including a terrific 5th place last year. The one thing that will stick in everyone's mind is the round of 68 in the 3rd round when conditions were really tough. Now into the World's Top 20, Fowler is a really exciting golfer who has all the shots, almost Seve-esque (and we all know what Seve did!). Has some good, winning form to bring into this event and he's been on record saying he can't wait to play some more links golf so all bodes well for a big week. If he can keep the ball in play, the fearless young talent may well prove tough to stop. L.Oosthuizen to win The Open, 1.5pts EW @ 50/1 Ladbrokes (1/4 odds 1-6) One of my favourite players and a former Open winner when he tore up the Old Course at St Andrews to win by a distance. What I like about Louis is the way he controls the ball and that will be crucial around here. Using the Augusta stat too, he comes here with a great chance, only being pipped by Bubba in a play off. He has the temperament to win, has solid Major form and is superb with the irons, as he showed last week at the Scottish Open. If his putter is hot, I fancy the South African to put himself bang in the frame come Sunday afternoon. B.Van Pelt to win The Open, 1pt EW @ 90/1 Paddy Power (1/4 odds 1-7) Augusta form brings this ever improving golfer into the picture. 2 Top 20 finishes there suggest that this track will suit and he's also done ok on the Links with him making the cut the last twice over here. Is having a great 2012, seeing his ranking rise to 25 with 6 Top 10's in 16 events on the PGA Tour. Was 2nd in the AT&T on his last start, so form isn't in question. All round stats are excellent, with him ranking high tee to green and equally as good on the short stuff. Unspectacular, Bo's slow & steady approach may just reap dividends on a very tough course. M.Laird to win The Open, 1pt EW @ 100/1 Paddy Power (1/4 odds 1-7) Another ranked inside the Top 50, this ever improving Scot could have a really good week. Based out of the US, he's had a good season with 2 2nd place finishes (at the ToC and The Players) and a further 3 Top 15's. Played at the Scottish Open last week and impressed with a 3rd round 64 en route to a 16th place finish. What impressed though was his form tee to green, ranking 22nd off the tee and 8th for GIR. It was his putting that stopped him from finishing higher, with the worst stats out of the Top 20. He's not the worst putter by any stretch and the key this week is keeping the ball in play so, at a 3 figure price, is worth a few quid. A.Romero to win The Open, 0.5pts EW @ 150/1 Paddy Power (1/4 odds 1-7) No big write up here. This Argentinian is my longshot purely based on his excellent Open record. Loves the links and has finishes of 8-3-32-13 in his 4 starts. That is bloody impressive and he will be even more fired up having failed to qualify for the last 2 Opens. Could bomb out but, at 150/1, is worth an EW tickle.

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Re: The Open Championship July 19th - 22nd

Westwood has to be a decent bet. Accuracy is key and his putting will be under less pressure here as hitting fairways is key. Anders Hansen at a big price is playing well at the moment and might just sneak a place at around 150s
12/1 is no value in my opinion. Westwood is an over-rated player in my opinion, always shines in small tournaments, but when he has to produce the goods in a major, he always falls short. He is also not that accurate off the tee, he is only 67th in driving accuracy, he is 179th on the total birdie stats, i would want 40/1 to back him. Anders Hansen is a good shout though at a price, he is playing well. I would find it hard to back any golfer at less than 40/1 for a major.
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Re: The Open Championship July 19th - 22nd

12/1 is no value in my opinion. Westwood is an over-rated player in my opinion' date=' always shines in small tournaments, but when he has to produce the goods in a major, he always falls short. He is also not that accurate off the tee, he is only 67th in driving accuracy, he is 179th on the total birdie stats, i would want 40/1 to back him..[/quote'] I agree 12/1 is a Sh?t price but he was available at 20/1 today in all McLean bookies here up North i had some e/w as i feel it is a very good price for him, he keeps knocking on the door and i think he will do the same or win here seems to be a late flood of dosh for him. Noticed they had dual forecast betting up in the shop for 1st & 2nd so took 240/1 on Westwood/McIlroy for two squid, is a long shot but hey nothing wrong with dreaming :lol.
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Re: The Open Championship July 19th - 22nd

I agree 12/1 is a Sh?t price but he was available at 20/1 today in all McLean bookies here up North i had some e/w as i feel it is a very good price for him' date=' he keeps knocking on the door and i think he will do the same or win here seems to be a late flood of dosh for him. Noticed they had dual forecast betting up in the shop for 1st & 2nd so took 240/1 on Westwood/McIlroy for two squid, is a long shot but hey nothing wrong with dreaming :lol.[/quote'] I have seen worse bets Ted! There is no way Westwood should be a much shorter price than Rory though. It doesn't make sense. I really hope the conditions are horrendous tomorrow, i want to see them suffer!!!
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Re: The Open Championship July 19th - 22nd

I have seen worse bets Ted! There is no way Westwood should be a much shorter price than Rory though. It doesn't make sense. I really hope the conditions are horrendous tomorrow' date=' i want to see them suffer!!![/quote'] because he is a better golfer perhaps? plus the bookies are happy to offer 20's on Rory as they know he blows up often, lets face it LW has been either well backed or they cramping his odds to make it look like he has to tempt more money
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Re: The Open Championship July 19th - 22nd

because he is a better golfer perhaps? plus the bookies are happy to offer 20's on Rory as they know he blows up often' date=' lets face it LW has been either well backed or they cramping his odds to make it look like he has to tempt more money[/quote'] Lee Westwood a better golfer than Rory McIlroy? I sincerely hope your winding me up.
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Re: The Open Championship July 19th - 22nd

here are mine posted on my website today, i've been through some of the trends and you have to be a previous winner in last 12 months on either the european tour and pga tour. Also, finishing in top 10 in a previous open helps also. Anyway, after much deliberation, i have placed the following bets on both the outright market and the 1st round leader market which i always enjoy (although sadly i am in meetings during the day so will miss the action) OUTRIGHT WINNER LEE WESTWOOD 14/1 LADRBOKES 3PTS WIN SERGIO GARCIA 40/1 BETVICTOR 1PT WIN LOUIS OOSTHUIZEN 50/1 BETVICTOR 1PT WIN DUSTIN JOHNSON 55/1 BETVICTOR 1PT WIN JIM FURYK 55/1 BOYLESPORTS 1PT WIN CHARL SCHWARTZEL 80/1 BETFAIR 1PT WIN KEEGAN BRADLEY 150/1 BETFAIR 1PT WIN MARCEL SIEM 170/1 BETFAIR 1PT WIN BRENDAN GRACE 189/1 BETFAIR 1PT WIN CARL PETTERSON 189/1 BETFAIR 1PT WIN 1ST ROUND LEADER SERGIO GARCIA 45/1 BETFAIR 1PT WIN JIM FURYK 80/1 BETFAIR 1PT WIN M A JIMINEZ 125/1 LADBROKES 1PT WIN LEE WESTWOOD 26/1 BETFAIR 1PT WIN

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Re: The Open Championship July 19th - 22nd

Lee Westwood a better golfer than Rory McIlroy? I sincerely hope your winding me up.
IMO yes, Rory is far better than lee was at the same age, but i personally think Lee is better than Rory currently. That will change as Rory can only get better and better and i hope he does. time will tell this week i suppose....
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Re: The Open Championship July 19th - 22nd

IMO yes, Rory is far better than lee was at the same age, but i personally think Lee is better than Rory currently. That will change as Rory can only get better and better and i hope he does. time will tell this week i suppose....
I like your bet on Westwood 26/1 first round leader, that looks great value to me. Definately a player that can put a huge round together. I also have Oosthuizen backed, let's hope he plays well. Best of luck with your bets Bowles.
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Re: The Open Championship July 19th - 22nd Well I could be wrong of course and I know very well he's been not at his best since 2009 but he has been playing at a very good level in the last two Majors and has got the kind of golf that should be well suited by the Royal Lytham & St Annes Golf Club so if his putt improves when it matters (did it many times in the past) I can see him go close and that's the best price I've found and can't see why he should have been at 50/1 or more being a big name, twice Open Champion, with some poor golf ok but the best combined record in the 2012 Majors so far. I'm a big fan of Padraig as well as I always support the Italians (Chicco is in super form atm) so could well be that I was a bit blind clicking on that bet but I was really waiting for this tournament to back him since the last Major. It's just a 2pts bet but a very confident one especially since it comes in a period of big investment and I do really hope it gives him a good boost ahead of the Olympics (plenty of small bets there) and the Galway Festival (two very strong bets already placed and plenty more to come). If it goes bad I've seen a nice place to go and eat for free walking around the Docks today http://twistsoupkitchen.com/ so I'll be fine :) Good luck to all and let's hope they all get a decent weather, something priced at 100/1 according to what's going on so far this year :(

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Re: The Open Championship July 19th - 22nd Im sticking with Poulter,he looks an unlikely winner,but with question marks all over the field and Woods is not the strong favourite he usually is.It just might throw up another first time winner. Bet 3 - I.Poulter 6s ew 1-2-3-4 Top Englishman 5pts boylesports Bet 4 - I.Poulter 50s win outright 3pts betfair Bet 5 - R.Fowler 40s win outright 3pts betfair Good luck guys

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