The Open Championship July 19th - 22nd

[Jenspm]

Looks like Woods is massively over-backed again after his win at the week-end. Down into 7.4 now and clear favourite, which I'm not sure he deserves. His driving was hardly consistent, which doesn't bode well on a tough links course like this. He's won the open three times, sure, but two of them were at St Andrews, a course even I've survived on on several occasions - there's little rough and the fairways are generous. This course is a different story - he finished 25th last time the Open was here, and I wouldn't be surprised if he finishes thereabouts this year as well. It looks to me like a typical post-victory Woods bandwagon party, and I'm happy to go against it. Lay Tiger Woods @ 7.4.

[Aidymac]

Re: The Open Championship July 19th - 22nd With a very attractive 7 places on offer now with Powers, i placed 4 Points e/w on Jonathon Byrd @ 150/1. Paul Casey - 1 Point e/w @ 80/1 Paul Casey - 4.3 Points WIN @ 70/1 Paul Casey - 4 Points WIN @ 125/1 Thomas Bjorn - 5 Points WIN @ 60/1 Thomas Bjorn -10 Points WIN @ 100/1 Tim Clark - 1 Point e/w @ 200/1 Robert Allenby - 1 Point e/w @ 175/1 Jonathon Byrd - 0.7 Points e/w @ 150/1 Jonathon Byrd - 4 Points e/w @ 150/1 Justin Rose - 1 Point e/w @ 50/1 Justin Rose - 7.6 Points WIN @ 40/1 Justin Rose - 10 Points WIN @ 50/1 Bubba Watson - 5 Points WIN @ 60/1 Miguel Angel Jiminez - 5 Points WIN @ 150/1 Louis Oosthuizen - 3.7 Points WIN @ 40/1 Louis Oosthuizen - 5 Points WIN @ 50/1 Ernie Els - 2 Points e/w @ 40/1 Ernie Els - 10 Points WIN @ 40/1

[bowles10]

Re: The Open Championship July 19th - 22nd Can't wait for this now, will be having a good look this weekI felt Charl Schwartzel was good enough last year to win the Open but it didnt come off. This year he will be in my group of players again. If the weather doesnt improve, the scores could be all over the place again

[Tedthewolf]

Re: The Open Championship July 19th - 22nd Two for me both big e/w bets and both available at 16/1 1-6 1/4. Lee Westwood is in good form and has a great chance of winning his first major has gone close several times now needs to close one out soon or a major may pass him by. Looks sure to go close and will be on the premisses come the last day. As for my other selection, well you certainly don't need to be Albert Einstein to work that one out!

[Aidymac]

Re: The Open Championship July 19th - 22nd Just wanted to see how i was faring with my antepost bets value wise and see if i did find any value.... Backed Paul Casey best price @ 125/1 , 175/1 is now available. :( Backed Thomas Bjorn best price @ 100/1 , 80/1 is now available. :D Backed Tim Clark best price @ 200/1 , 200/1 is still available. Backed Robert Allenby @ 175/1 , 200/1 is now available. :( Backed Jonathon Byrd @ 150/1 , 150/1 is still available but i predict his price will be cut, he is playing well. Backed Justin Rose @ 50/1 , 33/1 is best price available. :D Backed Bubba Watson @ 60/1 , 50/1 is best price available. :D Backed Jiminez @ 150/1 , 150/1 is still available. Backed Oosthuizen @ 50/1 , 50/1 is still available. Backed Els @ 40/1 , 40/1 is still available. So i have found value on 3 players, and have lost out on 2 players, not too bad i reckon. Can't wait for this!!!

[bowles10]

Re: The Open Championship July 19th - 22nd Aidy, prices will fluctuate amongst bookies for this, you may even find better value by tuesday but by wednesday everyone will be cut as the bookies shorten the odds for all for me value is assessed at end of each day as to where you stand, i recall taking some nice prices i.e. 300/1 on players only 6 or 7 shots off the lead with 3 days to go as these links courses can swing in your favour to climb the leaderboard quickly

[Aidymac]

Re: The Open Championship July 19th - 22nd

Aidy, prices will fluctuate amongst bookies for this, you may even find better value by tuesday but by wednesday everyone will be cut as the bookies shorten the odds for all for me value is assessed at end of each day as to where you stand, i recall taking some nice prices i.e. 300/1 on players only 6 or 7 shots off the lead with 3 days to go as these links courses can swing in your favour to climb the leaderboard quickly

Thank you Bowles, i know how a market works. If i have Justin Rose backed @ 50/1, and he is now 33/1, that is value, as i have backed a 33/1 shot at 17/1 more. What happens after Round 1 is irrelevant, this is the antepost market. Every golfer will not be cut on Wednesday, that has never happened. A few will be cut as in every tournament, others will drift, but the bookies do not shorten every golfer's odds on Wednesday.

[Crouch Potato]

All this assessing of odds seems pointless if you aren't using exchange odds.

[Aidymac]

Re: The Open Championship July 19th - 22nd

All this assessing of odds seems pointless if you aren't using exchange odds.

Why?

[Crouch Potato]

Re: The Open Championship July 19th - 22nd

Why?

Because exchange odds are set by the market and not a bookie. Plus they are often the best odds available, so if you're using that as a qualifier I think it's important to include. Take Bubba Watson for instance, you can back him on Betfair at 85s, so 50's isn't actually the best available. Thomas Bjorn is 120's on Betfair. Of course you have to take away 5% for commission, but still, the odds are bigger.

[Aidymac]

Re: The Open Championship July 19th - 22nd

Because exchange odds are set by the market and not a bookie. Plus they are often the best odds available' date=' so if you're using that as a qualifier I think it's important to include. Take Bubba Watson for instance, you can back him on Betfair at 85s, so 50's isn't actually the best available. Thomas Bjorn is 120's on Betfair. Of course you have to take away 5% for commission, but still, the odds are bigger.[/quote'] That is true. But it all depends on liquidity too. Then you have to take into account i am an each-way punter, you cannot back each-way on the exchange. But your right, i definately have to open up a betfair account for my bet's on majors, once this season is over, i will be concentrating on Betfair from next year onwards, far more value to be hard, have to agree. If i wanted to back Bjorn this minute on Betfair, how much would be matched @ 120?

[Crouch Potato]

Re: The Open Championship July 19th - 22nd Not sure what the conversion is to pounds but you can get $AU52 on at 120s and $AU216 at odds of 110.

[andyfmfb]

That is true. But it all depends on liquidity too. Then you have to take into account i am an each-way punter, you cannot back each-way on the exchange. But your right, i definately have to open up a betfair account for my bet's on majors, once this season is over, i will be concentrating on Betfair from next year onwards, far more value to be hard, have to agree. If i wanted to back Bjorn this minute on Betfair, how much would be matched @ 120?

You can do 'Top 5 & Top 10' finishes mate.

[Aidymac]

Re: The Open Championship July 19th - 22nd

You can do 'Top 5 & Top 10' finishes mate.

True Andy, but those markets tend to be less place value than if you back it each-way with a firm? The top 10 market could be of interest to me though, i don't know how many times this year i have had a golfer finish between 6th and 10th but not get placed. That's not bad liquidity Crouch, i will definately have to consider it for next year. But i don't buy into Bowles statement that you only know if you have value or not after the first round. Value is not determined on if your selection wins or not, it is about beating the starting price as if you do that enough times, you will be ahead of the bookmaker. It is like saying to the lads who backed Ernie Els @ 80/1 that they didn't get value, even though he is now 40/1.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: The Open Championship July 19th - 22nd You can now get $AU415 matched on Bjorn at odds of 130s, so the liquidity isn't bad. Even for non-majors I find Betfair liquidity still quite strong. Anyway, back on topic, I've just taken a page from Ted's book at lumped on Rory (21 - Betfair). Not usually my go to jump onto the big favourites but I thought 20-1 really was a bang up price for a player of McIlroy's talent. I don't think he's been this long in a major for a while now and he's played a lot at Lytham from his amateur days and has admitted that the course actually suits his eye. I still think back to his first round in 2010 where he absolutely destroyed the opposition and with a strong finish at the Irish Open a couple of weeks back and a good showing at St Jude's I think his recent missed cuts can easily be ignored.

[Aidymac]

Re: The Open Championship July 19th - 22nd

You can now get $AU415 matched on Bjorn at odds of 130s, so the liquidity isn't bad. Even for non-majors I find Betfair liquidity still quite strong. Anyway, back on topic, I've just taken a page from Ted's book at lumped on Rory (21 - Betfair). Not usually my go to jump onto the big favourites but I thought 20-1 really was a bang up price for a player of McIlroy's talent. I don't think he's been this long in a major for a while now and he's played a lot at Lytham from his amateur days and has admitted that the course actually suits his eye. I still think back to his first round in 2010 where he absolutely destroyed the opposition and with a strong finish at the Irish Open a couple of weeks back and a good showing at St Jude's I think his recent missed cuts can easily be ignored.

It is a big price for him Crouch. But his problem is he won't play a links course the way it should be played, he wants to put everything up into the air, and you cannot do that here. I think the saying is true, he is a sunshine golfer. But if he uses his head, he has a chance.

[Bobbyhead]

Re: The Open Championship July 19th - 22nd Anyone know if Tim Clark is actually playing in this,or not? A fair few bookies are laying odds,as high as 300/1!! Huge odds for a guy who is playing well enough,incl John Deere Classic at the mo,but is he taking part?? Btw,I have backed Dustin Johnson with Totesport at 45/1,quarter odds 1-6. Not playing too well(by his standards) since winning the St Judes Classic,but a very capable player on his day and has played well here previously. Would annoy me too much to swerve,only for him to oblige etc...

[Dougal]

Re: The Open Championship July 19th - 22nd According to the official Open website Clark is playing, though it may be worth noting that his best Open finish is 23rd. Interesting statistic, of the last 30 Open champions only one of them played on the PGA tour the week before the Open, clearly those playing in the John Deere are not helping themselves.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: The Open Championship July 19th - 22nd Wow, that's a very interesting stat Dougal. Speaking of which, this was Hornet's criteria last year. I don't think it'd have picked out Darren Clarke but regardless it's still an excellent bit of info:

The Open Winner Criteria: 1) 18 of the last 19 winners had won in the year of their win or the year before their Open win (exception - Ben Curtis) 2) 20 of the last 21 winners had played in at least 3 Opens prior to their win (exception - Ben Curtis) 3) 14 of the last 15 winners had finished in the top 5 in the year of their win (exception - Ben Curtis) 4) 13 of the last 15 winners had finished in the top 10 at least twice in the year of their win (exceptions - Ben Curtis & Todd Hamilton) 5) 13 of the last 15 winners had finished in the top 25 at least four times in the year of their win (exceptions - Ben Curtis & Todd Hamilton) 6) 14 of last 15 winners had finished in the top 25 in at least one of their last 5 tournaments (exception - Todd Hamilton) 7) 10 of the last 12 winners had been in the top 50 for Driving Distance in the year previous or year of win (exceptions - Ben Curtis & Todd Hamilton) 8) 12 of the last 14 winners had been in the top 30 for putting in the year previous or year of win (exceptions - Ben Curtis & Todd Hamilton) Basically, this profile has picked out 10 of the last 12 winners but not Todd Hamilton or Ben Curtis; however, it would have picked out big priced winners such as Paul Lawrie, Stewart Cink or last years winner Louis Oosthuizen...so fingers crossed the same will happen again!!

Not entirely sure who that leaves, but from guessing/memory that would include Lee Westwood, Dustin Johnson, Tiger Woods, Rory McIlroy, Louis Oosthuizen, Charl Schwartzel and probably some Europeans I've missed.

[Odyssey]

Re: The Open Championship July 19th - 22nd A tough tourney to call the winner,and the weather will play its part,the three par threes on the front nine could be key. Lee Westwoods change to the Ping Nome putter has aided hes putting no end after missing thoose costly short putts. Rickie Fowler has proven natural talent for the game,and is player thats fancied to play well in links conditions.

[Tedthewolf]

Re: The Open Championship July 19th - 22nd 1st Round Leader Rory McIlroy 25/1 a huge price for player who has lead a brave few majors after the opening round so far in his short career. If he gets in the groove early doors he can put up a low first round score and if does that, it will breed confidence and is well upto completely blowing the field away over the four days. Has drifted out to 20's to win it outright at ladbrokes i'll be calling into one of there belfast shops tomorrow and having a bit of that e/w thank you very much. The bookies are underestimating boy wonder again its great from a betting point of view! 25/1 1st round leader you'll be on that as well Bowlesy old son.... won't you?

[Dougal]

Re: The Open Championship July 19th - 22nd Matthew Baldwin - 1st round leader 0.75 pts e/w @ 250/1 BetFred (5 places) * Baldwin is from down the round in Southport and presumably has played Lytham a fair few times before, he has shot in the 60s in six of his last ten opening rounds so he has a habit of coming out of the blocks quickly. Off in one of the first groups as well so will get to use the greens when they are at their most pristine, closed with a morale boosting 67 in Scotland so should be full of confidence.

[Odyssey]

Re: The Open Championship July 19th - 22nd Thomas Bjorns name has been mentioned by some of the guys on here.Ive taken him but in the Top Continental market,Betfair fixed odds market go a stand out 18/1. Carl Petterson,a winner this year in the US,who has an excellent short game,is also well over priced in this market,even with hes not great record in the open,saying that hes only played the event half a dozen times.Hes best finish was a 8th in 2006,in that year too,he was a winner previous to this event.A mix bag of results this year,but winning the Heritage,two second place finishes and a 10th in the Players Champioship,hes not going to be lacking confidence,25/1 is to big imho. Top Continental European Bet 1 - Thomas Bjorn 18s win 3pts Betfair fixed odds Bet 2 - Carl Petterson 25s win 3pts Betfair fixed odds

[Aidymac]

Re: The Open Championship July 19th - 22nd Looks like i wasted some hard earned on Paul Casey. The joys of antepost eh! Now 500/1

[Edberg]

Re: The Open Championship July 19th - 22nd Padraig Harrington 2pts win @ 20/1 (Ladbrokes, Betvictor, William Hill and Coral) The Royal Lytham & St Annes Golf Club in Lancaster saw the debut of a 24yo young man from Dublin in an Open Championship 16 years ago and Harrington seems thrilled by the idea to be back on a course that meant a lot for him and should suit his style of play. The Irish golf star has been without a victory in the main tours for more than 3 years now but he knows very well how to win this tournament (two successive wins in 2007-08) and has been playing very well this season finishing 8th in the Masters and 4th in the US Open (best overall combined showing in the 2012 season's first two majors). I strongly believe another big win is about to come for Harrington and above all he seems very focused and confident too. "I believe it's coming," he said. "It doesn't have to happen next week or the week after. I believe it's coming. I'm in good shape. To be honest, areas that I see are weaknesses in my game at the moment are good areas to be practicing on."

[Aidymac]

Re: The Open Championship July 19th - 22nd

Padraig Harrington 2pts win @ 20/1 (Ladbrokes, Betvictor, William Hill and Coral) The Royal Lytham & St Annes Golf Club in Lancaster saw the debut of a 24yo young man from Dublin in an Open Championship 16 years ago and Harrington seems thrilled by the idea to be back on a course that meant a lot for him and should suit his style of play. The Irish golf star has been without a victory in the main tours for more than 3 years now but he knows very well how to win this tournament (two successive wins in 2007-08) and has been playing very well this season finishing 8th in the Masters and 4th in the US Open (best overall combined showing in the 2012 season's first two majors). I strongly believe another big win is about to come for Harrington and above all he seems very focused and confident too. "I believe it's coming," he said. "It doesn't have to happen next week or the week after. I believe it's coming. I'm in good shape. To be honest, areas that I see are weaknesses in my game at the moment are good areas to be practicing on."

I would love if Harrington won this mate, i am a huge fan of his. However, his price is beyond belief in my opinion. No win in over 3 years, disappointed in the Irish Open and the Scottish Open, his putting seems to be terrible at the moment, he is playing very well tee to green, and if he gets the putter going at all he has a chance, but if you look at the betting, i feel there is no way Harrington should be the same price as McIlroy and Donald, i would want 50/1 - 80/1 to back him personally. In saying that, if he can get his putting going at all, he will have a good chance, as he is probably one of the most intelligent players on the planet, which will suit links golf.

[eltub1]

Re: The Open Championship July 19th - 22nd [TABLE=class: lbr_bg004]

[TR] [TD=class: lbr_bg005] Single (each-way) [/TD] [TD=class: lbr_bg005] 2 [/TD] [TD=class: lbr_bg005] £4.00 [/TD] [TD=class: lbr_bg005] 2012 The Open Championship [/TD] [TD=class: lbr_bg005] Tournament winner (each-way 1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6) [/TD] [TD=class: lbr_bg005] Paul Casey [/TD] [TD=class: lbr_bg005] 500/1 [/TD] [TD=class: lbr_bg005][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: lbr_bg005][/TD] [TD=class: lbr_bg005][/TD] [TD=class: lbr_bg005] Single (To win) [/TD] [TD=class: lbr_bg005] 1 [/TD] [TD=class: lbr_bg005] £10.00 [/TD] [TD=class: lbr_bg005, width: 150] 2012 The Open Championship [/TD] [TD=class: lbr_bg005] Tournament winner [/TD] [TD=class: lbr_bg005] Justin Rose [/TD] [TD=class: lbr_bg005] 33/1 [/TD] [TD=class: lbr_bg005][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: lbr_bg005][/TD] [TD=class: lbr_bg005][/TD] [TD=class: lbr_bg005] Single (To win) [/TD] [TD=class: lbr_bg005] 1 [/TD] [TD=class: lbr_bg005] £5.00 [/TD] [TD=class: lbr_bg005, width: 150] 2012 The Open Championship [/TD] [TD=class: lbr_bg005] Tournament winner [/TD] [TD=class: lbr_bg005] Francesco Molinari [/TD] [TD=class: lbr_bg005] 40/1 [/TD] [TD=class: lbr_bg005][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: lbr_bg005][/TD] [TD=class: lbr_bg005][/TD] [TD=class: lbr_bg005] Single (To win) [/TD] [TD=class: lbr_bg005] 1 [/TD] [TD=class: lbr_bg005] £5.00 [/TD] [TD=class: lbr_bg005, width: 150] 2012 The Open Championship [/TD] [TD=class: lbr_bg005] Tournament winner [/TD] [TD=class: lbr_bg005] Louis Oosthuizen [/TD] [TD=class: lbr_bg005] 50/1 [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Taken into account driving accuracy/greens in reg/putts per round, and came up with these three. So if my betting form sticks around iv just taken three out of the field for the rest of you lol cos i cant pick my nose these days :-)

[Odyssey]

Re: The Open Championship July 19th - 22nd On Harrington,Edberg could be right,and Harrington might well comeback to hes old form and win this event,but it doesnt seem likely,hes been pretty poor in Europe this season.I followed him round at Wentworth in the BMW,a course where accuracy matters most,and he missed the cut,saying that he did have a good Masters and US open. On McIlroy,He has missed the cut in the Players and US Open,finished out with the washing in the Masters,on top of that he was another player that was dreadful at the BMW at Wentworth. Mickleson,Ive had the most blinkered view on him,but im starting to see the error of my ways,yes hes had lots of personal problems,but this guy starting to look a player to drop from your golf betting.Won a pro am,and 3rd in the masters,the rest of this season has been out with the washing and hes even had 2 missed cuts,class act yes,has he still got what it takes to win a major,my money would be no. Ian Poulter is a player im backing,he'll put the ball on the fairway,the rest were just going to have to keep our fingers crossed. He looks a very good bet in the Top Englishman market,he's got Westwood,Donald and Rose infront of him in the betting,but Boylesports are paying 4 places in this Market and hes quoted at 6/1 and 1/5th the place,this could well prove to be easy money :)

[RussP]

Re: The Open Championship July 19th - 22nd

Ian Poulter is a player im backing,he'll put the ball on the fairway,the rest were just going to have to keep our fingers crossed. He looks a very good bet in the Top Englishman market,he's got Westwood,Donald and Rose infront of him in the betting,but Boylesports are paying 4 places in this Market and hes quoted at 6/1 and 1/5th the place,this could well prove to be easy money :)

Good luck but I'd worry about it being 'easy money'. 4 places in a 21 runner field is never certain but then you factor in the conditions and, for me, it makes the event a bit more of a level playing field. Whilst I hope Poults does well and can see him beating 1 or 2 of the big 3, there's still big challenges to come from the likes of Simon Dyson, Ross Fisher, Robert Rock et al.

[RussP]

Re: The Open Championship July 19th - 22nd

I would love if Harrington won this mate' date=' i am a huge fan of his. However, his price is beyond belief in my opinion. No win in over 3 years, disappointed in the Irish Open and the Scottish Open, his putting seems to be terrible at the moment, he is playing very well tee to green, and if he gets the putter going at all he has a chance, but if you look at the betting, i feel there is no way Harrington should be the same price as McIlroy and Donald, i would want 50/1 - 80/1 to back him personally. [/quote'] Even though it's Aidymac, I'm going to go on record & say that I totally agree. 20/1 is a crazy price. In fact, in this Open, I'd be going 20/1 the field. Good luck though, Edberg.