Lahrio Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 5pts Newcastle +7.5pts @ 2.04 (Pinnacle) This line is a bit too high in my opinion. Melbourne have been in great form so far, but if you look at their fixtures, they have only had to play one team that is currently in the top 8 (Canberra in Round 1). That game was a close game won in the final few minutes. Newcastle are a step above the other teams the Storm have beaten (Titans, Roosters and Souths). Melbourne obviously have the edge in some key positions with their Big 3, but I think the Knights forwards are better, and they have some real strike power out wide. 5pts K. Snowden to bt B. Norrie - Most Metres Run @ 1.60 (IASBet) Snowden is one of the top props in the game, and his stats back that up. He has been running 125+ metres a game over the last few rounds, whereas Norrie tends to max out around the 100m mark. I see that trend counting tonight. 2.5pts Newcastle to bt Melbourne - Most Metres Gained @ 2.75 (IASBet) I am not really sure why this market is priced so heavily in favour of Melbourne? Newcastle have a much better pack and Melbourne are going to rely heavily on players like Slater making breaks to keep up in this stat. Despite some heavy wins in recent weeks, the Storm still haven't totally dominated teams in terms of metres gained. I expect the market to be much closer then the 2.75 odds suggest. 5pts Brisbane -4.5pts @ 2.00 @ (Pinnacle) The Broncos at home are always a force to be reckoned with, and I think the Dragons will find it hard to play their style of footy against this Broncos forward pack. The Broncos will miss Yow Yeh, but they have a number of lethal back line players to take advantage of the metres the forwards make. The Dragons have picked up their form since a heavy loss a couple weeks ago, however I expect the Broncos to win this one by at least 5. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lahrio Posted March 30, 2012 Author Share Posted March 30, 2012 Re: NRL 2012 - Round 5 5pts Newcastle +7.5pts @ 2.04 (Pinnacle) :( 5pts K. Snowden to bt B. Norrie - Most Metres Run @ 1.60 (IASBet):D 2.5pts Newcastle to bt Melbourne - Most Metres Gained @ 2.75 (IASBet):D 5pts Brisbane -4.5pts @ 2.00 @ (Pinnacle):DDecent night overall. P/L Round 5: +7.375 units P/L Season: +23.895 units Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lahrio Posted March 30, 2012 Author Share Posted March 30, 2012 Re: NRL 2012 - Round 5 I've taken a few for matches tomorrow. These are all with Luxbet in the 'NRL LuxMatch' option, where you can artificially match teams together in a match and the result is decided based on what each team scores in their NRL fixture. 2.5pts Manly v NZ - Over 47pts @ 1.85 (Luxbet) Manly is playing Parramatta and NZ are playing the Roosters tomorrow night. Now, these two clubs combined have let in an average of 56pts a game. If that wasn't bad enough, they now have to each face some of the best teams in the League. I know Manly are missing a few players but they should really be able to walk over this Eels defence. Hayne will boos the Eels attack, but I see Manly putting on a few points here, with NZ making up the rest. 2.5pts Manly -5 v Roosters @ 1.85 (Luxbet) The Roosters have been pretty horrible so far this year, and NZ hit their straps last week with a good win. If the Roosters continue to play like they have been recently against a side like NZ, they won't be scoring too many. Manly on the other hand are playing the Eels, and as I mentioned above, I expect them to run in a few points. 5 points should be plenty for the Sea Eagles to cover. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lahrio Posted March 30, 2012 Author Share Posted March 30, 2012 Re: NRL 2012 - Round 5 One more of those Luxbet matches for me. 2.5pts Gold Coast v Roosters - Under 37pts @ 1.85 (Luxbet) I can't see either of these teams scoring too many points against their opponents this week, and 37 points would require at least one of them to hit run in about 20 points. The Bulldogs and NZ have good defences which need patience to crack, something which I don't think these sides have too much of based on recent results. The Rooster haven't been able to complete sets let alone worry about scoring points yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lahrio Posted March 30, 2012 Author Share Posted March 30, 2012 Re: NRL 2012 - Round 5 And finally some more 'normal' plays. 5pts Warriors -5pts @ 1.943 (Pinnacle) 2.5pts Warriors 13+ @ 3.00 (Pinnacle) I think I have talked enough about the Roosters above, and I think the Warriors have gained a bit of confidence from last weeks win. The Roosters haven't really had an excuse over the past few weeks for their bad performances in the same way that the Eels have been able to blame the loss of Jarryd Hayne to an extent. I can see a big win for the Warriors. 5pts Sharks @ 2.14 (Pinnacle) 3pts Sharks to bt Penrith - Most Metres Gained @ 2.00 (IASBet) Cronulla have played some great footy in the past few weeks, led by one of the best players in the game, Paul Gallen. The man is an absolute freak, consistently making 200+ metres a game with 40 tackles or so alongside that! His metres give Carney the space he needs to weave his magic, and I think the sharks should be much closer or even favourites to win this one. The second bet is based on the strength of the Sharks forward pack. They consistently put up numbers around 1400 metres a game as a team off the back of this pack, which is hard to match. I feel as though the bookies are assuming that winning the match is more highly correlated with metres gained, but I disagree, and we saw why on friday night with both losers making more metres with the ball. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackcrow Posted March 31, 2012 Share Posted March 31, 2012 Re: NRL 2012 - Round 5 Quick tips from me tonight: Cronulla -3.5 @ 2.66 centrebet Parramatta -3.5 @ 4.35 centrebet NZ Warriors -7.5 @ 2.10 centrebt Season record: 11-18 (-0.29) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lahrio Posted March 31, 2012 Author Share Posted March 31, 2012 Re: NRL 2012 - Round 5 P/L Round 5: -2.425 units P/L Season: +14.095 units Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackcrow Posted April 1, 2012 Share Posted April 1, 2012 Re: NRL 2012 - Round 5 Cronulla -3.5 @ 2.66 :( Parramatta -3.5 @ 4.35 :) NZ Warriors -7.5 @ 2.10 :( Season record: 12-20 (+1.06) Bulldogs -6.5 @ 2.02 centrebet Like the Bulldogs to bounce back here after a below par performance in the loss to the Knights, after starting the season off with 3 straight wins. The Titans have not won their last 3 games, and now with Prince, as well as Idris, they lack some key players to get their season started. Though they have a good pack of forwards, and should be a good match for the Bulldogs up front, they are lacking quality in the backs, and this is where the Bulldogs have the edge on them. Though they are without Hodkinson, Barba looks to be the difference here, as he can weave the magic for them Rabbitohs -5.5 @ 2.02 centrebet Things are not all that well with the Tigers, as they have lost their last 3 games, and reports of problems amongst the players and the coaches, and also with Farah out, they have lacked some direction in these losses. Though they have quality in their side, they are out of form, and the Rabbitohs will like their chances of winning this game, as they look to be strong and fast for them out wide. Though they ended up losing to the Broncos last week, there is enough to suggest that the Rabbitohs have enough to win this game Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackcrow Posted April 2, 2012 Share Posted April 2, 2012 Re: NRL 2012 - Round 5 Bulldogs -6.5 @ 2.02 :D Rabbitohs -5.5 @ 2.02 :eyes Raiders -5.5 @ 2.10 centrebet Going with the Raiders here, as they showed some good form to beat the Tigers last week while the Cowboys lost at home to the Sharks. They have some very good players in their side but are not putting it together while the Raiders are a much improved side with Campese running the show for them. The Raiders tend to play well at home and at night, while the Cowboys are not noted travellers, so like the home team to get up here Season record: 13-21 (+1.08) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackcrow Posted April 2, 2012 Share Posted April 2, 2012 Re: NRL 2012 - Round 5 Raiders -5.5 @ 2.10 :eyes Season record: 13-22 (+0.08) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lahrio Posted April 6, 2012 Author Share Posted April 6, 2012 Re: NRL 2012 - Round 5 Sorry, forgot to update my P/L after last week. Losing week overall. P/L Round 5: -4.925 units P/L Season: +11.595 units Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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