England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Mar 30-31

[Shipsupstreets]

[TABLE=class: couponTable]

[TR] [TH=class: firstColumn]Friday 30 March 2012[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Luton Town v York City (19:30 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1/1 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 12/5 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 10/3 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]102.97 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Saturday 31 March 2012[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] AFC Telford United v Darlington (15:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1/33 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1/4 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1/33 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]274.17 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Bath City v Fleetwood Town (15:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 10 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 9/2 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1/3 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]102.27 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Braintree Town v Alfreton Town (15:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1/1 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 13/5 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 14/5 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]104.09 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Cambridge United v Wrexham (15:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 14/5 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 5/2 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 21/20 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]102.99 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Forest Green Rovers v Barrow (15:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 4/5 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 5/2 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 4 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]104.13 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Grimsby Town v Kidderminster Harriers (15:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 19/20 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 5/2 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 10/3 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]103.11 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Kettering Town v Stockport County (15:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1/33 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1/4 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1/33 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]274.17 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Lincoln City v Tamworth (15:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 11/10 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 13/5 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 5/2 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]103.97 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Mansfield Town v Ebbsfleet United (15:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1/2 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 10/3 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 13/2 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]103.81 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Newport County v Gateshead (15:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 6/4 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 23/10 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 7/4 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]106.67 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Southport v Hayes & Yeading (15:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1/2 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 10/3 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 11/2 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]105.86 %[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[maliniok]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Mar 30-31 Not placing the bet yet, just provoking a discussion. Luton - York - York +0.5 AH (odds not published yet but will be around 1.8 mark) Since Luton were relegated out of the Football League in 2009 both teams met 7 times in the Conference - and the record is 4-2-1 to York City. That only defeat came at Kenilworth Road last season - but that was a transitional season for The Minstermen - they had sold their best player Brodie and they finished that season in low 8th place and they didn't even come close to the playoff positions. This season York boast a decent away record of 8-8-2 and their last defeat on the road was way back in September. Their record against other top sides is also good: wins at Wrexham and Grimsby and draws at Fleetwood, Southport and Mansfield. Luton also have a very good home record: 12-4-3 but if you look at teams they beat, only Gateshead and Southport could be considered 'top'. They lost at Kenilworth to Fleetwood and Wrexham and drew to Mansfield and Grimsby which suggests that they don't find it easy to beat a playoff chasing team like York. As an extra factor, York may be on a high after they managed to get to the Trophy final beating and dawing against... Luton Town in the semis. Opinions?

[Darran]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Mar 30-31 Luton's record against the top sides and the fact they have a shocking record in night games this season is enough for me to want to take them on. The only problem I have is that York seem pretty wasteful in front of goal at the moment and now their price has come in I am not as keen to back them. I think if I was to have a bet I would probably side with the draw. The longer York keep Luton out the better as it wont take much for the fans to get on the players and managers backs. Having said that though I dont think a draw helps either team massively as both need a win to help their play-off bids

[maliniok]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Mar 30-31

Not placing the bet yet' date=' just provoking a discussion.Luton - York - York +0.5 AH (odds not published yet but will be around 1.8 mark)Since Luton were relegated out of the Football League in 2009 both teams met 7 times in the Conference - and the record is 4-2-1 to York City. That only defeat came at Kenilworth Road last season - but that was a transitional season for The Minstermen - they had sold their best player Brodie and they finished that season in low 8th place and they didn't even come close to the playoff positions. This season York boast a decent away record of 8-8-2 and their last defeat on the road was way back in September. Their record against other top sides is also good: wins at Wrexham and Grimsby and draws at Fleetwood, Southport and Mansfield.Luton also have a very good home record: 12-4-3 but if you look at teams they beat, only Gateshead and Southport could be considered 'top'. They lost at Kenilworth to Fleetwood and Wrexham and drew to Mansfield and Grimsby which suggests that they don't find it easy to beat a playoff chasing team like York.As an extra factor, York may be on a high after they managed to get to the Trophy final beating and dawing against... Luton Town in the semis. Opinions?[/quote']How irritating. I took York +0.5 with 365 @ 1.8 this morning only to see it's 1.875 now. In addition to the above I think Addpea made a good point about Luton and the pressure that's on them. They don't see to handle it well at all, hopefully they won't get a breakthrough tonight.

[kevshat]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Mar 30-31 Anyone using that midweek statistic about us tonight needs to be careful. I've seen it written in a few places how poor our midweek record is this season and it is. For whatever reason that is I don't know but there is a falseness to the statistic tonight. One of the reasons I don't like using statistics and trends in bets is you can always manipulate them to support your argument. In our case tonight on the two Friday night's we've played this season we have won one and drawn one, the draw being at Stockport when they equalised in the 92nd minute. Our Tuesday/Wednesday record is piss poor but Friday night isn't. Maybe it's the weekend factor who knows. I can't put my finger on it. Looking at the game in general tonight I would be amazed if the over 10.5 corners don't land in this match. I don't think York will come out and attack us, they didn't in the second leg of the Trophy game and having overtaken us last week they probably don't need to win this match. We have to be on the front foot and with Willmott on one side and either Howells/O'Connor on the other side depending on if Taylor is fit, I think we'll go well down the flanks. There's absolutely no pace at all in York's defence so the likes of Gray should get some joy down the channels so I would expect us to win a lot of corners in this match. At some point if we break through York will have to attack and I would suspect it will be via Chambers down their left, our right, which is probably the weak link in our defence. He could put a few crosses over which get nodded behind so I really do expect to see plenty of corners in this match. That was the thing I noticed the most from the two Trophy matches earlier in the month. With the amount of corners in mind it might pay to see if there's anything from the 33/1 on Janos Kovacs to score first tonight. He should've equalised from a corner in the first leg for us and had a header saved and would've scored if he'd realised where the ball had bounced in a goalmouth scramble in the second leg. He's always up for the big games and could land a first scorer punt at a tasty price especially if our strikers continue to misfire although Andre Gray could ensure that strikers missing chances is a thing of the past. I hope so anyway :lol. Hope that helps anyone thinking about a bet on the TV game tonight.

[Darran]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Mar 30-31 I didnt realise until I read it earlier that York havent lost on the road since September. Also I there is no real reason why your mid-week form is shocking its an odd one though and I think you will admit that your worse performances have been on the evening games. Should be an interesting game whatever and Im looking forward to watching it.

[Darran]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Mar 30-31 Braintree v Alfreton The home side have had a great first season in the Blue Square Premier and Alan Devonshire has done a fantastic job. They have been in fair form of late, although wins against Newport (sendings off helped) and Barrow (in woeful form right now) aren’t maybe as strong as they look on paper. They fought out a dull 0-0 draw with Southport on Tuesday and I think Alfreton are in better shape at the moment. I have wanted to keep on the right side of Alfreton for a while now and they have now won five of their last six games. That run of form has seen them pretty much safe, which is some effort given how poor they looked for the first few months of the season. Their away form has picked up and it’s much better than the stats for the whole season make it look. I don’t think there is as big a difference between these two sides as the betting suggests, indeed as I say above I reckon Alfreton are the better side at the moment. Coral’s offer of 13/5 for an away win looks value to me.

[Darran]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Mar 30-31 Just witnessed a great game of football there. Luton played the best I have seen them this season for the first 25 minutes and York really struggled if Luton had grabbed a 2nd it might well have been game over. After that though York were bang in the game and for me fully deserved the win in the end as Luton just ran out of puff. Also you just felt that they werent going to score again especially after Gray came off. Tyler had a good night but he should have done better for the first and the Luton defence were very sleepy for the second. Massive boos from the Luton crowd after the game and they were making their feelings known to Brabin at the end.

[maliniok]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Mar 30-31 Must agree with the comment about the quality of the match overall but disagree about Luton. Yes, they had some nice passes, some movement but if truth be told apart from Gray's goal and his misses one on one they didn't create anything. York were better in every compartment - midfield, defense and going forward. They hit the post and misses one on one in first 45 mins and that's when I remembered Addpea's comment about them being wasteful. At some point in the first half they had around 60% possesion! In the second half they dominated completely and if they hadn't scored that would have been a travesty. Anyway, patience paid off, they got two (the least they deserved), and won me the bet. Pressure mounts on Mr Brabin and boy he did look troubled after the match. Does any bookie offer 'Next manager to be sacked' in non-league?:)

[Darran]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Mar 30-31 I think your being harsh on Luton at the start of the game as they looked really up for it to start with and York looked hopeless, but then as soon as they got into the game Luton began to struggle. Sadly no bookie offers a next manager to be sacked not even Blue Square although they always get asked. Luton have stopped winning games again and they now have to go and really earn their place in the play-offs.

[Shipsupstreets]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Mar 30-31 A couple of spread trades for me today. Cambridge United have hardly been on it for a couple of weeks now and I think they could be vulnerable at home to Wrexham. I suspect the game will be more open than the 2.5 total goals buy figure, but I won't trade at that mark as there is also a case to be made that Wrexham might be able to establish a lead and sit on it. The trade for me that offers the best risk/return is a sell of Wrexham's 2nd goal at 75 with Sporting. I'm also selling the time of the 2nd Tamworth goal today at 80 with Sporting or Spreadex. This is a riskier trade as Lincoln's form has improved, but Tamworth have actually played well at times in their long poor run (one win in ten) and it should be remembered that in those ten they have played Mansfield, Fleetwood and Grimsby twice, York and Luton away and Gateshead and Newport at home. They've won just once - Newport at home - but they've rarely been stuffed, and in fact have conceded just three in the last six games. They are not scoring, but against a slightly more accommodating Lincoln defence I fancy them. I also like Marna's goal mins at 16 to buy - he's sure to get a chance, thought he might not last the 90.

[bartonbank]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Mar 30-31

A couple of spread trades for me today. Cambridge United have hardly been on it for a couple of weeks now and I think they could be vulnerable at home to Wrexham. I suspect the game will be more open than the 2.5 total goals buy figure, but I won't trade at that mark as there is also a case to be made that Wrexham might be able to establish a lead and sit on it. The trade for me that offers the best risk/return is a sell of Wrexham's 2nd goal at 75 with Sporting. I'm also selling the time of the 2nd Tamworth goal today at 80 with Sporting or Spreadex. This is a riskier trade as Lincoln's form has improved, but Tamworth have actually played well at times in their long poor run (one win in ten) and it should be remembered that in those ten they have played Mansfield, Fleetwood and Grimsby twice, York and Luton away and Gateshead and Newport at home. They've won just once - Newport at home - but they've rarely been stuffed, and in fact have conceded just three in the last six games. They are not scoring, but against a slightly more accommodating Lincoln defence I fancy them. I also like Marna's goal mins at 16 to buy - he's sure to get a chance, thought he might not last the 90.

Just a heads up about Wrexham, ships. We will be missing both Danny Wright and Speight, our top scorer, due to suspension. I know Cambridge are light as well but or forward line doesn't look quite as good with those two out.

[Shipsupstreets]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Mar 30-31 Poor day for me on the spreads, with both 2nd goal sells ending up 90 for a loss of 25 points overall and neither side coming even close to troubling the spreads. Marna was a void. Excellent call by addpea on Alfreton yesterday.