The Masters, Augusta 5th - 8th April 2012

[Boulder5111]

Re: The Masters, Augusta 5th - 8th April 2012 I'm something of a stranger to these parts of the forum but I love the Masters and I've enjoyed reading through some excellent posts on here. I'd love to see Rory win it, but from a betting point of view, I like to look at some juicier prices so I've come up with the following 3. Johnson Wagner 1pt E/W 150/1 William Hill 1/4 odds first 5 Keegan Bradley 1pt E/W 35/1 William Hill 1/4 odds first 5 Bo Van Pelt 1pt E/W 80/1 Paddy Power 1/4 odds first 6 My main criteria was based around the fact that those who play the par 5s the best with good putting and long driving should do well. There is rain forecast at Augusta so the long hitters might be at an even bigger advantage. All these 3 players were the only 3 (who weren't named Tiger or Phil !) that came in the top 25 of the following 3 categories : Putting Birdie or better performance on Par 5s Stroke Average (adjusted) The 3 players were ranked as follows in each category (in the order shown above) Johnson Wagner 11-18-15 Keegan Bradley 21-11-4 Bo Van Pelt 1-7-12

[althegolf]

Re: The Masters, Augusta 5th - 8th April 2012 Haas for me is over priced at 100/1 with Hills,beware his price is 90/1 on their website though and Rory is 13/2 on their website

[Cosmetic Bob]

Re: The Masters, Augusta 5th - 8th April 2012 Quite a few decent golfers here in 95 run ner field that could go close at rewarding odds so backing these 5 all with paddy power each way 6 places MATT KUCHAR @ 60/1 2 top 27s in last 2 masters quite a decent effort considering he didnt play in event from 1999 until 2010, as ever is having a consistant year, 5 top 25s in 6 starts, 3 top 10s. Started with 72 in wgc 2 outings ago but finished tied 8th then last time out in Transitions started with a 73 but must have confidence after a final round 65 to move into top 10 GRAEME MCDOWELL 66/1 Not really too bothered about last weeks tied for 63rd, started ok but put his foot off the gas in my opinion toi prepare on his shots for this week, has missed the cut the last two years but this year is coming into the event in much better form, already has a 2nd and 3rd placings this year, may well have won bay hill if tiger hadnt played it! BO VAN PELT 80/1 Had 5 top 10s last year including a win and was tied 8th here on his debut at masters last year which was a great record as debutants dont have a very good record, already 3 top 10s this year including in the wgc event so aint scared of contending with the big boys ANGEL CABRERA 100/1 Seems to play whenever he feels like it! goes missing for months on end then pops up from out of nowhere but you cant ever discount this 2 time major champion the winner here in 2009, has a great record in this event, arguably the best record in recent years outside of tiger and mickelson, 6 top 15s and was in final group last year fading a bit into 7th. PETER HANSON 150/1 Has been playing well this year was in final groups in abu duabi and qatar. Good performances in both wgcs this year, got to the quarters in matchplay and was tied 4th in wgc at doral only losing by 3 shots, looks a huge price for a man in form

[Boulder5111]

Re: The Masters, Augusta 5th - 8th April 2012 Phil Mickelson is currently trading at around 6/4 on the exchanges in a match bet with Tiger and that surely has to be great value. Their head to head record over the last 10 masters is 5 each which taken literally would make Phil an even money shot. Factoring in all of Tigers recent problems and the arguably over reaction to his win last time out, then this looks a very decent price. 1pt Phil Michelson to beat Tiger Woods (match bat) 2.5 Betfair

[hornet_18]

Re: The Masters, Augusta 5th - 8th April 2012 I've got to be honest - I want to back about half the field!! The Hornet Criteria cuts it down to about 20 so I'll focus on my own picks this week. I took four players antepost which I'm still happy with - Bill Haas, Brandt Snedeker, KJ Choi and YE Yang, however, they're not the 5 players I'll focus on for my outright bets. Bo Van Pelt @ 101 ew BlueSq In my eyes, 4 top 10s in his last 4 strokeplay tournaments says enough by itself. Add in his top 8 finish last season and I'm not sure how you can have Bo at triple figures. Playing great golf at the moment and has improved his putting stroke no end, currently ranked 1st for putting on the PGA Tour this season, 50th for GIR, 6th for Total Driving and 4th for All Around Ranking. Crazy odds for Bo the way he's playing. Trevor Immelman @ 126 ew WillHill Trevor Immelman may not have done too much since his Masters win a few years ago, but his record here is still good, with 3 top 20s since the Green Jacket was slipped over his shoulders. Having seen other young South Africans take the mantle he'll no doubt be keen to show he's still a force. Add in the fact that he's playing better this year with 2 top 12 finishes (11th last time out) in his last 4 starts. Big odds for the former champion if he's coming back anywhere near his best. Bubba Watson @ 51 ew Boyle I love these odds. Seven tournaments this year, seven top 20s, including two top 5s leading up to the Masters. Bubba definitely has the game to win the Masters, he's 1st for driving distace and 1st for GIR as well as 4th for par 5 birdie %. Perfect stats for the Masters. He has played here 3 times and while his best finish is 20th, he's never missed the cut showing he can definitely play the course. In my opinion he's a 33s shot at best so I'll happily take him at 50s to 6 places! Jim Furyk @ 101 ew Boyle This one may raise a few eyebrows but I've got a feeling that Jim will play well this year. He has 3 top 11 finishes in his last 4 strokeplay tournaments including the playoff loss at the Transitions a few weeks ago. The difference from last year has without a doubt been his putting. He is still hitting accurately and hitting greens, but this year he is ranked 34th in putting with very similar stats to those when he won the FedEx cup a couple of years ago. People say Jim cant play the Masters but I disagree with a top 25 last year and a top 10 in 2009. He knows the course inside out and is going in here under the radar. In my opinion, perfect preparation for the experienced campaigner. Jose Maria Olazabal @ 751 ew SkyBet (small stakes!) Ok, this is a shot in the dark but his record here is fantastic with 2 wins. He has won after adversity before so why not again?! His game seems to be coming around this year having made his last two cuts and his performances in the far east were more than encouraging with two top 12 finishes in the four tournaments. The odds are just too big. David Toms - Top American @ 67 ew Tote Three top 25s in his last four chances here show he can play the course. If he finishes in the top 25 again, he'll be in the mix for the top american market and I'm willing to take a chance on one of the finest putters in the game. He has 2 top 20s in his last 4 strokeplay tournaments and in my opinion, in a limited market, these odds are too big. Johnson Wagner - Top American @ 67 ew Tote The man who is 2nd in FedEx cup points this year seems to have been completely overlooked. Four top 10s this year speak for themselves and this includes a win and a 2nd place finish. A 4th place just two weeks ago show he has retained his form and on his only appearance here back in 2008 he actually fared quite well making the cut so there's no reason he cant better that now he is clearly a better player. Top 30 for GIR, putting, all around ranking, par 4 and 5 birdie %, Johnson makes a compelling case at big odds in this market. GL :ok

[RussP]

Re: The Masters, Augusta 5th - 8th April 2012 Taking 3 here myself. KJ.Choi to win Masters, 1pt EW @ 60/1 Paddy Power (1/4 odds 1-6) KJ.Choi, leader after 36 holes, 1.5pts EW @ 50/1 Paddy Power (1/4 odds 1-5) Started off the year T5 at the Tournament of Champions but, since then, has failed to really progress. However, I think this week may be his time to shine. Has a decent record here and has had 2 top 10 finishes in the last 2 years where he's started off really well. Isn't the longest hitter in the world but, crucially at Augusta, is great with his short irons & his wedge and will save plenty of shots this week. Isn't always the best under pressure and may get swamped by the top players over the weekend so I think the 36 hole bet could well see us collecting come Sat morning. N.Watney to win Masters, 1pt EW @ 60/1 Paddy Power (1/4 odds 1-6) N.Watney, leader after 36 holes, 1.5pts EW @ 33/1 Paddy Power (1/4 odds 1-5) One of my fav players and a huge price for a streaky sort of player. Can rip up course when he gets going which make his odds a little too big to ignore. 2 wins last year and, although his best finish this year is a 12th at the ToC, he's never far away from a good tournament. Big hitter and always ranked high up on the birdie list, he's got as good a chance as anyone this year. Course form too with a 7th 2 years ago, I think Watney is a great price to land the first major of 2012. B.Van Pelt to win Masters, 1pt EW @ 70/1 Boylesports (1/4 odds 1-6) B.Van Pelt, leader after 36 holes, 1.5pts EW @ 60/1 Paddy Power (1/4 odds 1-5) In form BVP should go well this year. 4 Top 10's in his last 5 starts, this might just be the best time to catch Bo. Another with recent track form too, 8th last year and comes here with some of the best stats on tour in 2012. Is putting fantastically well and picking up birdie after birdie. Driving long & straight too and has the game to win this week. Pressure should be off Bo, with the focus well & truly on Tiger, Rory et al so at 70/1, he's well worth a punt.

[PerryPFC]

Re: The Masters, Augusta 5th - 8th April 2012 Paddy are paying 6 places along with Boyles, SJ and Bodog, with Paddy the only one of those offering a refund on win bets if Tiger wins. Worth considering Apollobet if Paddys odds aren't that favourable as they too are paying 6 places and refunding win bets for a tiger win. They don't appear on oddschecker so often get forgotten! GL all

[bowles10]

Re: The Masters, Augusta 5th - 8th April 2012

Final bets from my shortlist Bubba Watson - 2pts win 51.0 BF 1pt ew (1st 6) 45/1 PP Robert Garrigus - 0.5pt ew 1st round leader 125/1 PP Lee Westwood – 2pts win 23.0 BF KJ Choi – 1pt win 1st round leader 50/1 PP Johnson Wagner – 0.5pt ew 1st round leader 100/1 PP Luke Donald - 2pts win 17.0 BF Sean O’Hair – 0.5pts ew 1st round leader 90/1 PP Justin Rose – 2pts win 35.0 BF Kyle Stanley – 2pts win 180.0 BF & 0.5pts 1st round leader 80/1 Jason Day – 2pts win 40.0 BF & 1pt win 33/1 1st round leader 33/1 PP

updated with my final bets for the tournament spread across the 1st rd leader market and the outright

[Torque]

Re: The Masters, Augusta 5th - 8th April 2012 I always like to use form as the main basis for my bets in golf (as a way to cut down on possible picks if nothing else!), and with that in mind I'm taking eight on the outrights, all with Betfair and all for 2pts. I'm really not an expert when it comes to golf, even though I enjoy watching it when I can, so I won't be writing up my picks in the detailed way that others do. I know form is bit 'thin' as reasoning for picks, but hopefully it's enough for me to post here. P. Mickelson to win US Masters @ 14 L. Donald to win US Masters @ 16.5 H. Mahan to win US Masters @ 38 K.J. Choi to win US Masters @ 80 A. Cabrera to win US Masters @ 110 P. Harrington to win US Masters @ 120 Z. Johnson to win US Masters @ 130 T. Immelman to win US Masters @ 170 I've also decided to lay Tiger Woods to a liability of 5pts on Betfair - put simply, I don't think he should be favourite for this. I understand that his record in this tournament is formidable, and also that his recent form is good, however I think this skews the fact that he is not as dominant as he used to be. Lay T. Woods to win US Masters @ 6.4 My position heading into the tournament is that the worst case scenario is a Woods win, if any of my picks win then I will make a profit, and if any other player wins I will make a small loss. I may trade my positions after the cut (if I am able to!), and if I do I will mention it on the thread. Good luck and thanks to all who take the time to share their knowledge and insights and write detailed posts, it is very helpful and it's also always nice to see that others might be thinking along the same lines with their picks :ok

[Crouch Potato]

Re: The Masters, Augusta 5th - 8th April 2012 Bill Haas @ 81 Sportingbet Quality, under-rated golfer who won the Fedex last year and more noteworthy to me, the Northern Trust this year. In the last 10 years current or previous year winners of the Northern Trust Open generally do quite well at the Masters. Weir and Mickelson went on to win, Rory Sabbatini and Len Mattiace went on to finish 2nd. Obviously the class of Mickelson you would expect this, but the correlation with Sabbatini and Mattiace makes me think that playing well in the Northern Trust is good preparation for Augusta. That Fred Couples plays so well in both events might back this up too. Possibly a daft connection. Aaron Baddeley @ 140 Betfair Last year's winner of the Northern Trust Open. That's it for me on the winners market, the rest is going on Rory. I think 8's is too big - he'll win at Augusta by 2020, and generally speaking players who do win at the Masters rack up their first green jacket after 5 or 6 goes (Phil the obvious exception) so quite fancy Rory to get it done. 1st Round Leader Jonathan Byrd @ 151 (E/W 1-5) Paddy Have liked his early leaderboard presence in a couple of events this year (including the Northern Trust) and fancy him to make a run for 18 hole honours.

[Aidymac]

Re: The Masters, Augusta 5th - 8th April 2012 Best of Luck Guys!!! :-) *Bubba Watson e/w @ 50/1 VC* People may say he has a funny swing, he is dodgy, not a great short game, unpredictable. He may be, but he sure is one heck of a golfer also. He drives the ball a mile, and cleans up on Par 5's. If his short game is anywhere near it's best this weekend, this guy is bound to be in the mix. With the course now soft, he will be carrying the ball a lot further off the tee than most people. He is arguably playing the best golf of his career the past year or so. He won 2 times in 2011, and finished 2nd already this year. Bubba is in with a good chance this weekend i feel. *Angel Cabrera e/w @ 100/1 VC* I think the fact Angel has been paired with McIlroy for the first 2 rounds will bode very well for his chances, it should up the quality of his game. It is true when you play with the best, it can bring the best out of you. Cabrera knows how to win major's in the US, he won the Masters in 2009, and has won the US Open. He has finished inside the Top 15 of the US Masters 6 times, he comes to life here. He finished 7th in this event last year. He is another to take very seriously here this weekend. *Aaron Baddeley e/w @ 150/1 VC* I find it interesting that so many Aussie's did so well last year. Day, Ogilvy and Scott were all in the Top 5. Maybe it was just a coincidence, but i will take a shot at this young man. He was 4th at Pebble Beach already this year and won the Northern Trust last year. He did finish 17th in this event in 2009 which was a very good performance and if he brings his best this weekend, i hope he can give me a run for my money. *Sang-Moon Bae e/w @ 200/1 VC* I think the fact this young man is paired up with Tiger Woods for the first 2 rounds may give him a chance this weekend. He is certainly one for the future, but he has caught the attention of many this season already with a 2nd placed finish in the Transitions and 5th in the Accenture Matchplay, if you can cope with matchplay it shows you have a cool head and some bottle, exactly what you need at Augusta. The fact he is playing with Woods may also spur him on to do well. Worth a go at the price.

[impressivegol]

Re: The Masters, Augusta 5th - 8th April 2012 ive seen on tele and online mentioning of the "soft greens". could someone please saybthe bearing that exactly has? i was thinking of taking prop bet of no aces but should i be deterred now because of the soft greens?

[Crouch Potato]

Re: The Masters, Augusta 5th - 8th April 2012 It means the ball wont bounce as much off the fairway, but more importantly, the ball wont bounce/roll as much on the greens. This means that players can attack the pin more and putt with more aggression. I certainly wouldn't consider a no aces bet based on soft greens. I reckon Bubba Watson to shoot the lowest round of the event @ 34s is pretty enticing now. As has been mentioned his drives go far so he gets a bonus off the tee and he is very good at attacking the pins. Not overly consistent as he showed at the WGC Cadillac, but he can really turn it on over 18 holes, as he also showed at the WGC Cadillac.

[bowles10]

Re: The Masters, Augusta 5th - 8th April 2012 amazed at bubbas price when there are a large number of people backing him this year, i thought it may have come down a bit further just shows i suppose the weight of money doesnt really shift the prices too much

[SteJay]

Re: The Masters, Augusta 5th - 8th April 2012 Where is everyone getting bubba watson e/w at 40's? Paddy power only giving 8/1

[tamintl]

Re: The Masters, Augusta 5th - 8th April 2012

amazed at bubbas price when there are a large number of people backing him this year' date=' i thought it may have come down a bit further just shows i suppose the weight of money doesnt really shift the prices too much[/quote'] Bubba will not win this week. I am very confident on this one. Have you looked at his putting stats? AWFUL. This is why he wont win: -165TH on pga tour for putting stats -High left rough tendency so will be blocked off on a lot of Augusta's dog leg left holes (Blocked by over hanging trees, etc) -Very poor final round stats which means he loses his nerve in the final round. Just my two pence but he is not suited to Augusta. A more open course would be ideal for him. Regards

[bowles10]

Re: The Masters, Augusta 5th - 8th April 2012

Bubba will not win this week. I am very confident on this one. Have you looked at his putting stats? AWFUL. This is why he wont win: -165TH on pga tour for putting stats -High left rough tendency so will be blocked off on a lot of Augusta's dog leg left holes (Blocked by over hanging trees, etc) -Very poor final round stats which means he loses his nerve in the final round. Just my two pence but he is not suited to Augusta. A more open course would be ideal for him. Regards

thanks, he is 1st on GIR and 1st on driving distance this year, those 2 stats help at augusta, if the stats are showing 165th on putting averages then he is certainly getting there in regulation but the putts aint going in. He still looks a big price at 50's for me, and time will tell how he performs here.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: The Masters, Augusta 5th - 8th April 2012 I don't really think Bubba has the temperament to win a major but I certainly wouldn't discount him, particularly on the basis of a poor putting stat line. It only takes one good tournament with the flat stick and all those other aspects of your game can really come to the fore. Darren Clarke only ranked 130th in putting on tour last year but he managed to find it when it counted.

[macmuck]

Re: The Masters, Augusta 5th - 8th April 2012 Wow! that stat shook me..He has never looked that bad a putter! What worries me more is his exaggerated shots and how much more difficult the distance control will be with the tiny shelves/landing areas. For that reason, there is others I'd rather back... Mahan has ob claims..twice recent winner, good age and course form, peaking. Donald...A swing to trust.. Snedekar, Haas are others whose odds look good.

[Aidymac]

Re: The Masters, Augusta 5th - 8th April 2012

Bubba will not win this week. I am very confident on this one. Have you looked at his putting stats? AWFUL. This is why he wont win: -165TH on pga tour for putting stats -High left rough tendency so will be blocked off on a lot of Augusta's dog leg left holes (Blocked by over hanging trees, etc) -Very poor final round stats which means he loses his nerve in the final round. Just my two pence but he is not suited to Augusta. A more open course would be ideal for him. Regards

Schwartzel is 87th in the world in putting stats. He won the Masters last year. Bubba will do better than everyone else on the Par 5's, it evens itself out. He has a live chance

[tamintl]

Re: The Masters, Augusta 5th - 8th April 2012

Schwartzel is 87th in the world in putting stats. He won the Masters last year. Bubba will do better than everyone else on the Par 5's, it evens itself out. He has a live chance

There is a huge difference between 87th and 165th.. Also schwartzel is 4th in the world for 3 putt avoidance. Bubba is too high to be in the top 200. Bubba is good but at Augusta I think he'll struggle.

[The_Tipster]

Re: The Masters, Augusta 5th - 8th April 2012 Backed Adam Scott at 33/1 yesterday, +4 after seven not looking good :@

[Aidymac]

Re: The Masters, Augusta 5th - 8th April 2012

There is a huge difference between 87th and 165th.. Also schwartzel is 4th in the world for 3 putt avoidance. Bubba is too high to be in the top 200. Bubba is good but at Augusta I think he'll struggle.

Explain Angel Cabrera then? 6 x Top 15's including a victory at the US Masters, 7th last year. 149th in putting.

[Aidymac]

Re: The Masters, Augusta 5th - 8th April 2012 Mr Stenson won't enjoy his dinner tonight lol!!! -5 after 17 holes, leading.... And takes an 8 on the last.. Puke.

[Tedthewolf]

Re: The Masters, Augusta 5th - 8th April 2012 ....here comes the McIlroy charge ....hopefully took a wee bit of 66's to be first round leader!

[Dougal]

Re: The Masters, Augusta 5th - 8th April 2012

Mr Stenson won't enjoy his dinner tonight lol!!!-5 after 17 holes' date=' leading.... And takes an 8 on the last.. Puke.[/quote']I feel for anyone who had him for 1st round leader, ouch!

[Aidymac]

Re: The Masters, Augusta 5th - 8th April 2012

....here comes the McIlroy charge ....hopefully took a wee bit of 66's to be first round leader!

Donald played rather average today............. I see the europeans have started well!!! Mon Bubba :-)

[Aidymac]

Re: The Masters, Augusta 5th - 8th April 2012

I feel for anyone who had him for 1st round leader' date=' ouch![/quote'] I was reading a US Masters preview site this morning that had Stenson as their value of the tournament! The 18th is a monster today, a Par is as good as a birdie.

[Tedthewolf]

Re: The Masters, Augusta 5th - 8th April 2012 Donald might be in diffs here. Wrong score signed! Had a 75 not 73 could be an early bath for the worlds no1.

[Aidymac]

Re: The Masters, Augusta 5th - 8th April 2012

Donald might be in diffs here. Wrong score signed! Had a 75 not 73 could be an early bath for the worlds no1.

Uh-Oh!!!