NRL 2012 - Round 4

[blackcrow]

Panthers -13.5 @ 4.30 centrebet Hard to take the Eels here without Hayne and some concerns over Sandow, as their forwards do not do much with the ball while, apart from Sandow, there is not creativity in this side. They lack some class all over the park, and it is no wonder that they have yet to win this season. Like the Panthers here, who have played well against some good opposition so far this year, and have a good pack of forwards who do make some good yardage down the middle. Add to the halves of Burns and Lewis, with Jennings out wide, and you have a good mix of players who can shift the ball wide. The Panthers have the better form coming into this game, and with the Eels struggling to get it going, then like the Panthers to win well here Broncos -15.5 @ 4.60 centrebet The Broncos have been doing enough in their games, but now meet some quality and like them to raise their game here. They have been a very consistent side that does not give much away, as they have one of the better defences in the leauge, and they have some talent in the backline to go with the forwards. They face the Rabbitohs who are hit-and-miss, as on their day, they can match it with anybody, but they can also be pretty ordinary. They played well against the Panthers last week, but if they are error-prone here, then the Broncos should take advantage of this. The game is being played in Perth, so both teams need to fly over to the other side of continent, and there is a 3 hour time difference, but with the Broncos having an extra two days to prepare for this, and having a very good record agains them, like them to be too strong for them. Season record: 9-13 (+0.41)

[lockscombi]

Re: NRL 2012 - Round 4 sorry for the late write ups, figured it's better late then never! Storm -12.5 [email protected] Betfair Pretty obvious bet here, Storm are extremely clinical and fing good Pen -2 [email protected] Sportsbet Obvious again, Eels defence is rabble, attack just as bad Tigers -7.5 [email protected] Sportsbet Pretty solid bet here, Canberra suck Brisbane -2.5 1u@2 Betfair Broncs are a strong side which will easily handle a strong rabbits foward pack. Warriors 13+ [email protected] no value on this bet imo but I think the warriors will be looking to bounce back from last weeks effort against the dogs. Manly [email protected] Betfair This game could go either way imo so an extra 30 cents makes me tingle Cronulla [email protected] Betfair This is a pure value bet. I do believe this Cronulla pack can beat the cowboys on their day at least 1 in 3 games so I have to take these odds. up up cronulla..... Newcastle 1u@3 Betfair Another value bet this one. Dogs look unstoppable atm but I have a good feeling about this one. Against I feel the knights can win at least 1 in 3 games

[Lahrio]

Re: NRL 2012 - Round 4 Warriors -12.5pts @ 1.91 (Pinnacle) The Titans have been pretty poor since their Round 1 shut-out of the Cowboys. They haven't really looked like winning either of their next 2 games. On the other hand, the Warriors have lost close games to Manly and Canterbury, who are both good sides. I expect them to show what they are capable of tonight against the Titans, and with the size they have in their backs, we could see them run in a few tries. Dragons @ 1.719 (Pinnacle) Dragons put on an excellent display last weekend, and Manly have a job on their hands to try and stop that happening again. The Dragons are still a very good side, and with their big forward pack coupled with the boot of Jamie Soward, opposition teams are looking at having to make 80-100m to score. Manly are also missing several key players including Glenn Stewart, Steve Matai and Tony Williams. All these players are big losses, and I expect their absence to be too much for the Sea Eagles.

[blackcrow]

Re: NRL 2012 - Round 4

Panthers -13.5 @ 4.30 :) Broncos -15.5 @ 4.60 :eyes

Season record: 10-14 (+2.71) Warriors -25.5 @ 4.40 centrebet Like the Warriors to bonce back here after the loss to the Bulldogs last week, as they are very good when going forward, and if they can tighten up their defence, then they should have too much for the Titans, especially in the backs, as they have a very good back 3, while in the halves, Maloney and Johnson can dictate the game for them. The Titans have a good solid forward pack, but so do the Warriors, and there will not be much between the two, but when the Warriors spread the ball, they sould have too much size and speed out wide for them. Dragons -17.5 @ 5.00 centrebet The Dragons were very impressive in beating the Tigers last week and have the luxury of an extra day to prepare for this, as the Sea Eagles are coming off a loss to the Sharks on Monday night. The Sea Eagles have players out for this game, while the Dragons are getting some players back, which only strengthens their side for this game. They have won 7 of their last 10 meetings over them and have beaten the Sea Eagles on the four occasions they have played at Kogarah. Not sure if the Sea Eagles have got their game going yet while the Dragons were on song last week, and in another big game, like them to be too good for them, like they were last year when they beat them 24-6 in Wollongong Cowboys -20.5 @ 4.95 centrebet Cowboys won easily over the Eels, winning 42-6 with Thurston and Bowen making it look easy. They get two more days to prepare for this game than the Sharks, who did well to hold on and beat the Sea Eagles, and now will need to repeat that performance to come close to the Cowboys. However, Monday night struggle in the following weekend game, and with the game likely to be played under humid conditions, that is where the home team, used to these conditions, and with an extra two days to prepare have a big advantage. Also, that is where the little men like Bowen and Thurston, should excel as the bigger opposition forwards start to tire

[Lahrio]

Re: NRL 2012 - Round 4 5pts Cowboys -7pts @ 1.99 (Pinnacle) 2pts Cowboys 13+ @ 2.577 (Pinnacle) The Sharks played well to get a win in against Manly last Monday night, but I think the style of play the Cowboys produce is far different, and harder for the Sharks to counter. Against Manly they were able to rough it out in the forwards, and there aren't too many teams who can beat the Cronulla forward pack, but against a quick skillful back line marshaled by Jonathon Thurston, I think the back line of the Sharks will be exposed. Todd Carney can obviously spark the Sharks into a win, but I think the experience and consistency of Thurston is superior and enough to rely on the Cowboys covering this handicap in my opinion. The Sharks will be playing on a quick turnaround as well this week so the humidity up in Townsville will certainly take a bit out of them, particularly after mammoth efforts from certain Cronulla forwards on Monday to get them over the line.

[blackcrow]

Re: NRL 2012 - Round 4

Warriors -25.5 @ 4.40 :wall Matteo's stupid pass at the end that led to the intercept and then the Titans eventually scoring saw this pick go from a winner to loser at the end Dragons -17.5 @ 5.00 :( Cowboys -20.5 @ 4.95 :( They wer poor last night, especially Thurston

Season record: 10-17 (-0.29) Storm -13.5 @ 2.00 centrebet Storm were far too good for the Titans last week and they are in ominous form for this game. While the Roosters edged out the Raiders, they face a tough task trying to penetrate the Storm defence, and when the Storm get the ball, they usually do well with it, as their big three of Smith, Cronk and Slater create some magic with it. Whoever wins these matches generally wins them by double digits so like the Storm to win this, and win it well Bulldogs -6.5 @ 2.00 centrebet Got to give the Bulldogs credit as they have played well so far this season, as there is more backbone in their defence; their forwards are making some good yardage down the middle, and they are willing to spread the ball around. Like them to be too good for the Knights, even though they have a solid forward pack, they are still relying on Gidley and Mullen to do much of the attacking, and until they share the workload, then they will have problems meeting the expectations of many people. They have some injuries going into this game which does not help, and like the consistency that the BUlldogs have showed so far, and like them to do enough to win this game

[Lahrio]

Re: NRL 2012 - Round 4 5pts Storm -12 @ 1.877 (Pinnacle) I have no clue how the Roosters have won any of their games this year. They have been abysmal, completing only half of their sets in last weeks match against Canberra. If it wasn't for the fact that Canberra basically had no interchange including injuries to several of their key players, they wouldn't have got close. The Storm big 3 have continued to impress this season, and I think it will take a better team then the Roosters before those players are shut down. I expect a big Storm win here.

[Lahrio]

Re: NRL 2012 - Round 4 5pts Bulldogs -5.5pts @ 1.935 (Pinnacle) I have been particularly impressed with players like Ben Barba and James Graham for the Bulldogs so far this year. The Knights have the potential to match the Bulldogs, but they aren't realising it at the moment. The halves pairing for the Knight has been particularly weak, and it wasn't helped by Kurt Gidley being out for a few weeks. In fact, he has been named in the squad for today but I doubt he will be 100%. The Bulldogs have already pulled off some great wins over top quality opposition, and I think they should be able to get past the Knights here.

[Lahrio]

Re: NRL 2012 - Round 4 An average weekend so far for me. P/L Round 4: +0.53 units P/L Season: +9.96 units 2.5pts Canberra Raiders Completion - Over 72.5% @ 1.90 (IASBet) The Raiders haven't fallen below this so far this season including a match in horrible conditions in Round 1 against the Storm. They have been pretty safe with the ball in hand, generally playing it up through the forwards without spreading it too much. They have been clearly learnt from last year that you can't win games if you don't complete your sets, and it looks as though they may have put a bit of effort into this during the off-season. 5pts Total Points - Over 40.5 @ 1.862 (Pinnacle) These are two attacking sides who tend to produce high scoring games, with an average in the past four encounters of over 50pts. I expect that trend to continue with both sides possessing good attacking players who can pick a team apart on their day.

[Lahrio]

Re: NRL 2012 - Round 4 Both my Monday bets came in, but a bit disappointed I didn't go with my gut and take Raiders 13+ who were paying over $8 before kick-off. P/L Round 4: +7.09 units P/L Season: +16.52 units

[blackcrow]

Re: NRL 2012 - Round 4

Storm -13.5 @ 2.00 :D Bulldogs -6.5 @ 2.00 :(

Season record: 11-18 (-0.29)