Australian Grand Prix

[Ben H]

Australian Grand Prix, Albert Park,Melbourne, Qualifying 06:00 GMT 17th March, Race 06:00 GMT 18th March.

[Ben H]

Re: Australian Grand Prix 1pt, N.Rosberg to be fastest in Practice One, 15, William Hill 1pt, N.Rosberg to take Pole Position, 17, Bet365 From what I read of experts viewing the cars at the tracks in testing the Mercedes seems to be an improvement on last years car, and many rate it the third best looking car from handling. Reading information from the paddock today it appears that the Mercs have an 'F Duct' type system that works when the DRS rear wing is activated. If true, this will give the biggest advantage in qualfying and practice when DRS use around the lap is unlimited, and in theory the car can receive the extra boost anytime the driver is brave enough to activate the DRS. If it is a big advantage then the prices above may look big, and also has he has proven numerous times over the last couple of years Rosberg is a driver who is prepared to take the fuel out and turn in hot laps in practice.

[Ben H]

Re: Australian Grand Prix 1pt L.Hamilton to win Australian Grand Prix, 6, bwin. 1pt J.Button to win Australian Grand Prix, 8, William Hill. Really for the points I made in the championship thread, if Mclaren are as close to Red Bull as the experts think, then 6 and 8 looks a bit long, especially in the first race with new style tyre compounds and Red Bull running their 'B-Spec' car that only did the last two days of testing at Barcelona. And if it is true Mclaren suit the faster bits better then Melbourne should be okay, few slow hairpins at the front and back of the track but a fast section through the middle making for a track about 15km/h over the average speed for tracks on this years calendar.

[Sir Puntalot]

Re: Australian Grand Prix Good posts Ben. :ok

[Ben H]

Thanks! Practice was rain affected so still in the dark about the dry weather performance of these cars, but forecast is for a dry Saturday so let's see how it turns out. 2pts Qualifying match bet, R.Grosjean to beat K.Raikonnen, 2.95,bwin. One of the biggest prices for the Qualfying team mate match ups when I think they should be closer. Grosjean has only just rejoined f1 after two years out and so has Raikonnen, so we ate in the unknown a but but we do know Kimi, although being a World Champion, has been beaten in Qualfying before by drivers not of the absolute top rank (Montoya, Massa) as well as producing some brilliant performances. And Grosjean is no slouch, and was winning GP2 (on Pirelli tyres and F1 testing while Kimi was rallying and doing NASCAR Nationwide last year. So maybe hard a la Schumacher to get back into the single seater groove and Kimi not helped in this by steering rack problems yesterday that limited his track time-not necessarily a set up disaster with the rain but valuable familiarisation time for a driver known for erratic performance. helped in this 2.95

[Ben H]

But......if I'm a bit sceptical about Kimis chances, I'm very sceptical about Ferraris: 1pt lay F.Alonso to Qualify in top 10, 1.15, Betfair 1pt lay F.Massa to qualify in top 10, 1.16, Betfair Low liability for potential high reward here. Subject to change has had different prices matched and have odds and sods still on offer there but you get the idea! Ferrari did not go well in testing and the statements of team members seem very pessismistic. Could be a bit of a bluff but there seems enough evidence that they are in trouble. Anthony davidson showed a couple of great split screen onboards with button and alonso earlier, and commented how bad handling the Ferrari was and the amount of understeer made it look a bit of a boat! Massa dumped his car in the gravel and Alonso nearly put jt in the wall. If it all really has gone wrong, then there are cars that can push Ferrari down the order- on the evidence of testing we can envisage a situation where two mclarens, red bulls, mercedes and lotus get in front Ferrari 9 and 10 and with the Force Indias looking good handling cars in testing and goodness knows what else threats from the midfield and Felipe and Fernando are in a situation where if they cock it up slightly they'il go out in q2. Maybe a bit far fetched but don't think they are sub 1.2 favorites for it.......... you get

[Hammers527]

Re: Australian Grand Prix 1pt lay F.Alonso to Qualify in top 10, 1.15, Betfair 1pt lay F.Massa to qualify in top 10, 1.16, Betfair 2pts Qualifying match bet, R.Grosjean to beat K.Raikonnen, 2.95,Bwin. Spot on with all of these! And if Mclaren keep put of trouble tomorrow then the below look good too! 1pt L.Hamilton to win Australian Grand Prix, 6, Bwin. 1pt J.Button to win Australian Grand Prix, 8, William Hill.

[RussP]

Re: Australian Grand Prix Great tipping guys:clap Could have been even better with Rosberg leading after 2nd qualifying! Good luck tomorrow on the British lads, found an awful lot of value there. PL looks set for a profitable F1 season.

[Hammers527]

Re: Australian Grand Prix 1pt K.Raikonnen for a Top 6 Finish, 8/1 Ladbrokes The Lotus F1 is clearly a fast car as we have seen in testing, practice and from R.Grosjean's stunning thrid place in Qualifying this morning. Kimi made a mistake on a flying lap and there was then a communcation problem with the pitwall which meant that he didnt get to the start finish line in time to do another. If he can get a clean getaway and stay clear of trouble then I expect him to make up places on the first lap and then start picking off the midfield bunch once DRS kicks in after two laps.

[Ben H]

Re: Australian Grand Prix Well what an entertaining qualifying session it was, F1 2012 is looking like a great season! Happy to win those bets, and with a mind to my Williams spread bet from the championship thread (although still a long long way to go), was very encouraged to see Maldonado vault into 8th place! And yes I will be watching tomorrow with McLaren tinted spectacles, hopefully they don't get in each others way and one of them can pull it off. Couple more for tomorrow: 2pts, M.Schumacher to finish on podium, 3.13, Betfair I always had a sneaking suspicion Schumacher would do a lot better, relative to his team mate, if Mercedes had a really fast car, and here is an early test of that theory. He is 4th on the grid, and considering he developed a reputation for being able to consistently improve on his grid position last year, he is strongly set. Yes, it's easier to do that starting deep in the pack, but even doing it from there shows a driver has good attributes for post 2011 Formula 1: starts, Pirelli tyre management, DRS/non DRS passing, consistent lap times. Even the cars around 3rd place have to do a lot of that now because of the spaced out nature of tyre stops. It's something which surprised me as I always thought Schumacher was a bit of a (bloody good) one trick pony in the flat out-refuel-flat out-refuel era he mostly raced in. But hes really showed off different skills since he came back, even if the results aren't as good. And he seems to handle the pressure well, kind of being the inverse of Rosberg (locking that brake on the hot lap today), driving beautifully in Canada last year and only losing a podium through a couple of very effective DRS passes. Now yes, the Red Bulls are behind Schuey, but there is no evidence this weekend (yet) they are actually faster, and even if they are, the DRS zones are relatively short here, and as Martin Brundle was mentioning on Friday the Red Bull seems a long way down on speed, 8km/h he was saying. Grosjean has done brilliantly so far but I wouldn't back him over Schumacher's proven racecraft. So getting over 3 seems pretty fair to me for this.

[Ben H]

Re: Australian Grand Prix 2pts, B.Senna to finish in points, 4, Bet365 Basing this on reports I read pre season that the Williams was maintaining it's pace very consistently and well over long runs. That could work well tomorrow, as reportedly there is only about 3 tenths between the soft and the hard tyre, so ekeing out a long, consistent stint on the hards work well. Senna is 14th, although was only 3 tenths off Q3 - it is really tight down there in the midfield. With Maldonados sterling effort, it shows this car is not slow and if it can maintain the pace well in race conditions then Senna could move forward. Looking at the people trying to stop him getting in the points, I read that in the final test, the Toro Rossos and Saubers were showing signs of rear end instablity, which will not help their tyres or consistency. And as for Ferrari, the car visibly looks so jittery I can't see how they won't wear their tyres a bit faster too, and I believe they have wacked lots of wing on to try and help but that will lose them straight line speed and make it more difficult to attack/defend drivers like Senna. I don't think he is that much of an outside chance for the points tomorrow, so down goes the money!

[Guest]

Re: Australian Grand Prix

1pt J.Button to win Australian Grand Prix, 8, William Hill.

Congratulations on the win! ;)

[RussP]

Re: Australian Grand Prix Great bet on Jenson, well done mate. But very unlucky on Kimi, finishing 7th:wall

[Sir Puntalot]

Re: Australian Grand Prix Quality analysis and great profit, can't ask more than that. ;):clap McLarens do seem to be well ahead from what I saw. Very similar to the Hakkinen/Coulthard season.

[Ben H]

Thanks people! Was great Jenson winning and he was absolutely commanding as well- very impressive and I think Hamilton seemed a but shocked by it all at the end! Didn't have such a good time with the other race bets, Senna never really got into things after being in a tangle at turn one, and Schumacher was 3rd when his gearbox broke but realistically he would have had a big fight to keep it from Vettel. In terms of the season bets I posted in the outright thread all good for the championship but was slightly distressed to see Maldonado chuck it at the wall on the last lap- the 8 points he was set for would have been handy for my Williams spread bet and his match bet against Senna.....oh well! At least it looks like team willy have a fast car!