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CzechPunter

12th March - 18th March

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Re: 12th March - 18th March Hi guys, 1 picks for WTA INDIAN WELLS: DOMINGUEZ-LINO +5 GAMES HANDICAP TO DEFEAT KIRILENKO @ 2.03 on pinnaclesports I don't expect it to be an easy win for Kirilenko who will have to hit a lot of winners in this match. Dominguez is very consistent and she looked good in the first two rounds here, especially winning against Lisicki in the 2nd round.

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Re: 12th March - 18th March I'll delve back into Indian Wells for a brief foray. Feel this one might be worth taking...... ATP Indian Wells - Santiago Giraldo to beat Nicolas Almagro @ 7/4 BET 365 Strength (5/10) Giraldo has the momentum here IMO and I think he has a good chance of breaking his duck against Almagro. He's a very streaky player however he looks to have come into form in recent weeks and if he takes that form into this match then I think he'll come through against the Spaniard, who tends to check out mentally in these events and lose focus. He lost to Montanes at this stage last year and any similar sort of performance will not cut the mustard I feel. Giraldo lost their last meeting on hard easily but he was out of form then, I think their first two meetings - which were both very close three setters - are more of an accurate gauge how this game will go, and on a slower hard surface which suits Giraldo's game well (gives him a bit more time to line up those penetrative groundstrokes) I think he's good value come out on top this time against a player, who as I said, is usually pretty beatable in this mini hard court stretch. :hope

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Re: 12th March - 18th March Wawrinka to bt Simon @ 1.61 (Stan James:3pts) Took this earlier and the price has changed slightly. Fancy Stan to have the edge here, he's had some decent runs on the clay recently, bit of a struggle against Ginepri in rd 1 but I think Simon might be a more favourable match-up here. Not impressed with Simon this year, seems to be declining, serve unreliable, playing a counter-puncher style but he doesnt seem as strong as he was a few years back. Match should be on Stan's racquet I think, if he can serve fairly well and keep a limit on those errors, I would expect him to win this one. Vinci to bt Cibulkova @ 2.020 (Pinnacle:3pts) Tough one here but gonna go with the underdog. Just not seen enough to suggest that Cibulkova is playing so well recently. Some of her losses have been quite poor really - like to the likes of Keothavong, Arn, Razzano this year, and benefitted from a retirement to get through the last round vs Rybarikova early in the first set. Vinci also capable of dodgy losses(Bratchikova in Monterrey) but she has played some good stuff this year too - 1/4 in Paris indoors where she lost to Bartoli in a 3rd set breaker when she really choked the match away. Semis on clay in Acapulco losing to fellow countrywoman Errani which was pretty expected. She's a crafty player who forces you into mistakes, will be interesting to see if Cibulkova can come through this one, she tends to leak errors and has been out of form so I think this will be a tough match. Isner(to bt Monaco) x Ivanovic(to bt Pervak) Double @ 1.736 (Pinnacle:3pts) Fancy a little double here. Monaco can be a very tough player and I thought about taking him on a + handicap, but however the match may go, I do see big John coming through. Big difference is serve obviously, Monaco is a good returner but still tricky to break Isner and Monaco's serve can be shaky at times. Fancy the big man in 2 or 3. Cant trust Ana on handicaps or overs/unders these days, but I do think she comes through this one. Pervak has no real weapons, weak serve, no power, and does have struggles against harder hitters and higher ranker players. Ivanovic beat her 4 and 2 at the US Open and she wasnt even in that good shape then. Looks like a favourable match-up for her again I think, she can go walkabouts herself but I see her getting a good few looks at Pervaks serve and should come through IMO. Have a few more on my list aswell, still thinking them over. :hope

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Re: 12th March - 18th March Hi! Been so busy lately, didn't have any time for posting. Finally I'm back and have few matches on offer from Indian Wells. Not a fan of the new look of this site but will have to adapt. Radwanska vs Hampton. Under 18 games. 1.92 @ Pinnacle (7/10) Hampton with life-time best at Premier Mandatory level tournament but won't make it any further. The last match against Gajdosova was very long and tough one and will have taken lots out of the American. Radwanska is going to rollover her. Agnieszka can defend really good and having played average tennis against Pennetta last time out I expect her to be a bit more solid this time. She hammered Hampton 6-0, 6-1 in Stuttgart last year and it could be a very similar outcome this time as well. Unders for sure! Ferrer vs Istomin. Under 19.5 games. 1.94 @ Pinnacle (6/10) Expect Ferrer to take Istomin apart. Istomin was lucky to get away with his awful performance against Chela after coming back from a break down in the 3rd set. His serve was down and won't improve, no doubt about it. Ferrer has got stunning return game and will be a nightmare match-up for Istomin. David dropped just 4 games against Dimitrov and should win easily against Istomin as well. Basically couple breaks will do the trick here as 6-4, 6-3 will be good enough. Ferrer has crushed Istomin in their only meeting winning 6-4, 6-1 in Beijing in 2010. Federer vs Raonic. Over 22 games. 1.86 @ Pinnacle (5/10) First meeting between these two and that only means that Fed will have to spend some time adjusting to Raonic's bombs. I can easily see a tie-break in this one or even a dropped set for Federer. Raonic has got some baseline tennis on offer as well, not only huge serves. Should be a pretty close match and 22 games to cover should not be a problem when Raonic is involved. McHale to beat Kerber. 2.05 @ Bwin (4/10) Quite fancy McHale in this one. She took out Kvitova in the previous round and doesn't deserve to be an underdog today. Of course, Kvitova made lots of unforced errors but still you have to get past her. Kerber had a w.o. in previous round against King but struggled big time against Stephens in R2. She was something like set and 5-1 down but managed to survive. McHale is quite similar to Radwanska - great defense but lacks power. Her backhand down the line is the money shot and with Kerber out of form (had 15 break points and 4 breaks against her vs Stephens) I fancy the American. The crowds are big in IW and she'll have huge support. Azarenka vs Goerges. Over 17.5 games. 1.90 @ Bwin (4/10) Azarenka was tested big time by Barthel in a match she should have won comfortably. In end Vika got away with a scare as Barthel failed to serve it out. Barthel did serve quite good at times and Goerges is another big hitting German who can get free points on serve. She looks like she's enjoying it in IW and has been solid in opening three matches. Should be a straight sets win for Azarenka but wit some choking she can gift few games. 6-3, 6-3 or 6-4, 6-2 will be good enough. There have been exactly 18 games in their previous two matches that were concluded. :hope

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Re: 12th March - 18th March Lots of retirements/withdrawals in this tournament - looks like this comes from some air borne infection, see http://sports.yahoo.com/tennis/news?slug=afp-tennis_atp_wta_usa_virus_20120311 It would be foolish to support favs under such circumstances. Personally, I am going to parlay some +handicaps today at my local bookie: (Raonic +4.5 games > Federer) x (Istomin +5.5 games > Ferrer) x (Goerges +7.5 games > Azarenka) @4.02 local bookie 0.5u As to Federer's match, rumour is that he also is influenced by that IW virus, and Raonic's serve alone should be enough to make the match close. Azarenka's match is scheduled noon in a very hot day. We all know Vika does not like such conditions, and personally I think her problems in the match with Barthel were caused by this. Should be very similar today. As to Ferrer's match, I've been watching Ferrer against Dimitrov. Ferrer was not good, has been making many errors and doublefaults, and only because Dimitrov is totaly erratic choker the score 62 62 looks like an impressive win. Please note that those four games won by Dimitrov inlude one broken serve! I think that Ferrer has problems with the clay-hard swing from his last two tournaments, and is not going to hammer Istomin, who seems to be getting into good shape. GL:hope edit: also going for an outright Goerges to bt Azarenka @4.53 local bookie 0.5 u The odds are awful, but the bookie is one ball as I expect Vika might retire today. She did so last year here, though 1 round later in the match with Wozniacki. Vika is not the fittiest lady on the tour and IMO the condions are just screaming for this type of bet. If this does not come through, then in the next round (QF) against Radwanska (?) I shall repeat it.

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Re: 12th March - 18th March Adding one more as the odds weren't available for this one earlier. Sharapova -6 AH vs Vinci. 1.93 @ Pinnacle (6/10) Vinci will be on mission to avoid a double bagel, that's the only motivation for the Italian in this match. Obviously she can't serve and her passive style of tennis where there are only slices will be punished by big hitting Sharapova. Totally expect Masha to hammer Vinci. They have played only once. In US Open 2007 Sharapova lost just one game against Vinci and this match should be no different. Total power against lack of it. Basically Vinci's game doesn't work against someone like Sharapova. Unders also is a good choise here but -6 allows to get away in case of 7-5, 6-1 scoreline. There should be at least one very one-sided set today.

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Re: 12th March - 18th March

Ferrer vs Istomin. Under 19.5 games. 1.94 @ Pinnacle (6/10) Expect Ferrer to take Istomin apart. Istomin was lucky to get away with his awful performance against Chela after coming back from a break down in the 3rd set. His serve was down and won't improve, no doubt about it. Ferrer has got stunning return game and will be a nightmare match-up for Istomin. David dropped just 4 games against Dimitrov and should win easily against Istomin as well. Basically couple breaks will do the trick here as 6-4, 6-3 will be good enough. Ferrer has crushed Istomin in their only meeting winning 6-4, 6-1 in Beijing in 2010.
Stunning selection! But could you please avoid your confusing reasonings next time? Just write Ferrer vs Istomin. Under 19.5 games. 1.94 @ Pinnacle (6/10)and leave it as that :clap

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Re: 12th March - 18th March

Stunning selection! But could you please avoid your confusing reasonings next time? Just write Ferrer vs Istomin. Under 19.5 games. 1.94 @ Pinnacle (6/10)and leave it as that :clap
Had a huge laugh about this one myself. Bare in mind that Ferrer was up a break in the 2nd set :lol

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Re: 12th March - 18th March The final one for Tuesday... Petrova to beat Kirilenko. 1.80 @ Pinnacle (4/10) Petrova is now working with Ricardo Sanchez (previous coach of Jankovic and Wozniacki couple months) and has got big motivation which has not been there for years. Couple really good wins, should have get rid of Stosur in straight sets but still won. My problem with Kirilenko here is that she's all over the place. She barely got past Lino in three sets. Lino was 5/20 on break points. This is a joke. Petrova will hold easier as she can hit aces for fun. Petrova is 4-3 in H2H. She's lost both matches on clay and the other defeat came in Dubai. Petrova has got horrible record over there, never plays well. Really fancy Petrova to have this one, probably three sets but I won't care as long as it comes thru.

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Re: 12th March - 18th March Federer vs. Raonic Raonic to move quickly around the court? He's one of the big guys RF played in his career. To move on the court and dont wait only from big serve is a must in a match against the Swiss Clock! Recently RF learned how to play against players with a strong serve. 12.03.12 Federer R. - Kudla J. 2:0 (6:4, 6:1) 03.03.12 Federer R. - A. Murray 2:0 (7-5, 6:4) 02.03.12 R. Federer - Del Potro JM 2:0 (7:6, 7:6) 29.02.12 Federer R. - F. Lopez 2:0 (7:5, 6:3) Well, we can see that Roger managed to beat Del Potro and Murray, who are the elite of worlds tennis. 12.03.12 Raonic M. - K. Berlok 2:0 (6:4, 6:2) 27.02.12 Raonic M. - Meltzer 0:2 (5:7, 6:7) 26.02.12 Raonic M. - Benj Becker. 2:0 (6:4, 6:4) 25.02.12 Raonic M. - O. Rochus 2:0 (6:3, 7:6) 24.02.12 Raonic M. - Stakhovsky S. 2:0 (6:4, 6:4) Raonic certainly a good player, but not the level, in fact it is very similar playing style of Del Porto. Which still can not beat or compete with Federer on equal terms here. I believe Federer is able to break once in each set and this will be enough to cover. Roger -3.5 1.85 Expekt

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Re: 12th March - 18th March

(Raonic +4.5 games > Federer) x (Istomin +5.5 games > Ferrer) x (Goerges +7.5 games > Azarenka) @4.02 local bookie 0.5u LOSS Goerges to bt Azarenka @4.53 local bookie 0.5 u LOSS
Goerges was the bigest disappointment. Broke Vika to love in the 1st game of the 2nd set, then lost 6 games in a row thus spoiling the +7.5 hcp. But the Federer's match selection in the parlay should have been the over, anyway, so it's me to blame for it not to come out. -3 flat units for the event, which is the STOP mark. Hoping for better results next week in Miami.

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Re: 12th March - 18th March

Federer vs. Raonic Raonic to move quickly around the court? He's one of the big guys RF played in his career. To move on the court and dont wait only from big serve is a must in a match against the Swiss Clock! Recently RF learned how to play against players with a strong serve. 12.03.12 Federer R. - Kudla J. 2:0 (6:4, 6:1) 03.03.12 Federer R. - A. Murray 2:0 (7-5, 6:4) 02.03.12 R. Federer - Del Potro JM 2:0 (7:6, 7:6) 29.02.12 Federer R. - F. Lopez 2:0 (7:5, 6:3) Well, we can see that Roger managed to beat Del Potro and Murray, who are the elite of worlds tennis. 12.03.12 Raonic M. - K. Berlok 2:0 (6:4, 6:2) 27.02.12 Raonic M. - Meltzer 0:2 (5:7, 6:7) 26.02.12 Raonic M. - Benj Becker. 2:0 (6:4, 6:4) 25.02.12 Raonic M. - O. Rochus 2:0 (6:3, 7:6) 24.02.12 Raonic M. - Stakhovsky S. 2:0 (6:4, 6:4) Raonic certainly a good player, but not the level, in fact it is very similar playing style of Del Porto. Which still can not beat or compete with Federer on equal terms here. I believe Federer is able to break once in each set and this will be enough to cover. Roger -3.5 1.85 Expekt
FT: 67 62 64

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Re: 12th March - 18th March Isner vs. Ebden The American is known to all of its filing and the number of aces, which is not surprising With the growth of 206 cm is easier to get the first serve in, it explains a large percentage of passage of the first serve. When the opponent is consistently putting in his first serve, play becomes,harder, psychologically. But this is one side of the coin. The reason is the same height and weight, plus another 111kg which does not allow to run around the court like Nadal or Ferrer. Just pay attention to the statistics of played games Isner: 12.03.12 Isner J. - J. Monaco 2:0 (7:5, 7:5) 10.03.12 Isner J . - Gil F. 2:0 (7:5, 6:3) 04.03.12 Isner J. - K. Anderson, 0:2 (5:7, 6:7) 03.03.12 Isner J . - Tomic B. 2:0 (6:3, 6:2) 01.03.12 Isner J. - R. Sweeting, 2:0 (6:3, 6:4) Total over 10.5 very often breaks. Matthew Ebden, who in the previous match unexpectedly defeated local player Mardy Fish also a big guy. His task is simply to keep his serve in this match and he would probably do it because of personal ability, and not because of John's ability to more or less decent plays at the return. First set: Over 9.5 1.61 Bet365

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Re: 12th March - 18th March +5.25pts for Indian Wells now, tricky event this year and plenty of players not at the races for whatever reasons. See how today pans out. Isner vs Ebden OVER 21.5 games @ 1.72 (Paddy Power:3pts) Overs for me in this one. Isner will be tough to break no doubt about it and Ebden seems to be playing well enough to keep close after taking care of Fish and Benneteau which are good wins. Del Potro vs Istomin OVER 20.5 games @ 1.909 (Pinnacle:3pts) Could be a tricky one for Del Potro, he's playing well in recent weeks but not all his matches are clean wins without some dips. He had to save multiple set points against Verdasco yesterday for example and that match deserved a 3rd set. Istomin is in his best form again, serving well, hitting confidently, and he was staying in rallies well with Ferrer even grinding down the old master. Tbf Ferrer was nowhere near his best but Istomin played very well and I think this line has a shot as I can see one long set at least. Nadal -5.5 games vs Dolgopolov @ 1.935 (Pinnacle:3pts) Fancy Rafa to get this done well against Dolgopolov. Great win for him over Baggy but he almost made a balls of it as he was comfortable in sets one and three but gave breaks back to Baggy before closing it out. He's too inconsistent for me and makes too many errors. Conditions this week seem good for Nadal and I dont see Dolgo troubling him too much. Would expect one easy set which should give the line a shot.

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Re: 12th March - 18th March Im no tennis pro but i do like the occasional flutter on the women's from time to time ;) but today I noticed that in the Djonkovic match it was.. Total match games OVER 17.5@2.10 paddypowers.. now correct me if im wrong but isnt the mens played first to 3 sets wins with 6 games in each set.. so 18 games minimum?? how can they offer odds like this, seems crazy o.O 6-0,6-0,6-0 is a winner, at better than evens?? Same with Nadal it was OVER 18.5@1.66, bad odds but the other guy has to only win 1 GAME for it to be a winner WTF?! I did small stakes coz it seems a bit fishy, anyone care to explain why it would be set like this?

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Re: 12th March - 18th March

Im no tennis pro but i do like the occasional flutter on the women's from time to time ;) but today I noticed that in the Djonkovic match it was.. Total match games OVER 17.5@2.10 paddypowers.. now correct me if im wrong but isnt the mens played first to 3 sets wins with 6 games in each set.. so 18 games minimum?? how can they offer odds like this, seems crazy o.O 6-0,6-0,6-0 is a winner, at better than evens?? Same with Nadal it was OVER 18.5@1.66, bad odds but the other guy has to only win 1 GAME for it to be a winner WTF?! I did small stakes coz it seems a bit fishy, anyone care to explain why it would be set like this?
Men's is best of three in Indian Wells and most tournaments other than Majors and Davis Cup!

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Re: 12th March - 18th March

Im no tennis pro but i do like the occasional flutter on the women's from time to time ;) but today I noticed that in the Djonkovic match it was.. Total match games OVER 17.5@2.10 paddypowers.. now correct me if im wrong but isnt the mens played first to 3 sets wins with 6 games in each set.. so 18 games minimum?? how can they offer odds like this, seems crazy o.O 6-0,6-0,6-0 is a winner, at better than evens?? Same with Nadal it was OVER 18.5@1.66, bad odds but the other guy has to only win 1 GAME for it to be a winner WTF?! I did small stakes coz it seems a bit fishy, anyone care to explain why it would be set like this?
No man, only in Grand Slams you play a minimum of 3 sets... In this tournaments you play at least 2 sets...3 is the max

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Re: 12th March - 18th March Sharapova vs Kirilenko. Over 18.5 games. 1.85 @ Bwin (6/10) Sharapova is yet to be tested this week and this one finally will be her first real test. Kirilenko was involved in very strange match against Petrova and managed to win that one. Not sure she can repeat the shock result of beating Sharapova in Australian Open but can make at least one of the sets close. Sharapova's serve is a bit suspect these days and Kirilenko can take an advantage of it. All the matches they've contested have been very close and there have not been single unders in 4 meetings. 18.5 games is not that big to cover. Halep managed to get 19 games against Sharapova so why wouldn't Kirilenko? Ivanovic to beat Bartoli. 2.09 @ Pinnacle (5/10) I'll take Ivanovic as underdog in this one. She was beaten by Bartoli at the same stage in IW last year but was playing awful tennis at the time. Now she's improved a lot and THE win against Wozniacki (despite Dane being utter crap) will give her real confidence boost. Ana is 4-3 in H2H against Bartoli and the stats should be another crucial factor on the + side. Ivanovic is playing attacking tennis and can compensate lack of serve at times. She did very well hitting the corners against Wozniacki and if she can repeat that game plan against Bartoli, it will be a winning formula. Bartoli has issues covering the baseline and she gets tired. It's 1/4finals after all...

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Re: 12th March - 18th March

Isner vs. Ebden The American is known to all of its filing and the number of aces, which is not surprising With the growth of 206 cm is easier to get the first serve in, it explains a large percentage of passage of the first serve. When the opponent is consistently putting in his first serve, play becomes,harder, psychologically. But this is one side of the coin. The reason is the same height and weight, plus another 111kg which does not allow to run around the court like Nadal or Ferrer. Just pay attention to the statistics of played games Isner: 12.03.12 Isner J. - J. Monaco 2:0 (7:5, 7:5) 10.03.12 Isner J . - Gil F. 2:0 (7:5, 6:3) 04.03.12 Isner J. - K. Anderson, 0:2 (5:7, 6:7) 03.03.12 Isner J . - Tomic B. 2:0 (6:3, 6:2) 01.03.12 Isner J. - R. Sweeting, 2:0 (6:3, 6:4) Total over 10.5 very often breaks. Matthew Ebden, who in the previous match unexpectedly defeated local player Mardy Fish also a big guy. His task is simply to keep his serve in this match and he would probably do it because of personal ability, and not because of John's ability to more or less decent plays at the return. First set: Over 9.5 1.61 Bet365
6:4 Will continue today... the winning streak, thanks to my friend Ruslan

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