NRL 2012 - Round 2

[Lahrio]

6pts Brisbane to bt North Queensland @ 1.51 (Pinnacle) 2pts Brisbane -6pts @ 1.89 (Pinnacle) 1pt Brisbane 13+ @ 2.90 (Pinnacle) I have gone pretty big on this match on Brisbane, who are in my view far better on paper as well as in their performance in Round 1. The Cowboys failed to score against last years Wooden Spooners at home, and had one of the worst completions I have seen for a large period of that match. They are heavily reliant on Thurston yet again this season, and he can certainly win this match for them, but I think the Broncos forward pack is far superior to what the Cowboys have to offer, and their outside backs have more strike power as well, particularly with Justin Hodges looking dangerous last weekend. This will be the first home game of the year for the Broncos, and they should get a big crowd for what is traditionally a strong rivalry. 2pts Manly 1-12 @ 3.40 (Pinnacle) This should be a close match, and I think the result could go either way. Manly played well to get a win in NZ last week, and the Tigers were fairly lucky to get away with the win against the Sharks. I think Manly's structured game could really frustrate the Tigers, and similar to the Cowboys, they need Benji Marhsall to fire. The game is being played on the Central Coast rather than Brooky, although I expect the crown to be mostly Manly supporters, so the Sea Eagles should get the home ground advantage.

[lockscombi]

Re: NRL 2012 - Round 2 Manly 2u @ 2.03 Centrebet , 1-12 1u@ 3.35 Sportsbet See a little Value on NQ at $3 on Betfair but decided to listen to my heart and not my balls: Brisbane -6 2u@1.92 sportsbet

[turkiye911]

Re: NRL 2012 - Round 2 Be careful with picking Manly, they will be missing both Glen Sterwart and Steve Matai ! , two very influential players to the Manly squad. and as for the Tigers, i actually think they were up against a real decent team last week in Cronulla. Tigers @ 1.80 offered by Centrebet.

[blackcrow]

Re: NRL 2012 - Round 2 Sea Eagles -1.5 @ 2.07 centrebet Sea Eagles coming off a very good win over a Warriors side that should be up there this year. They controlled most of the game, and like them to do well again in another hard fought game. The Tigers were not that impressive last week against the Sharks, and were fortunate to win it. They have a few injuries coming out of that game, and like the Sea Eagles to take advantage of this. They have won 5 of the last matches with the Tigers, and should get some good crowd suport fort his game. Like Manly to win this one. Broncos -7.5 @ 2.03 centrebet Broncos were pretty efficient last week, and with Civoniceva coming in, they look pretty solid up front. The Cowboys made too many errors last week and though they should play much better here, the concern is whether that will be enough to stop the Broncos, who have won 8 of the last 9 meetings. The Broncos are a steady side who do not make too many mistakes while the Cowboys like to mix it up, but when it does not work, like it didn't last week, then they struggle for answers. Like the Broncos to go on from here and make it two in a row Season record: 3-3 (+2.00)

[Lahrio]

Re: NRL 2012 - Round 2 A losing night thanks to that Matt Bowen try in the last few minutes. P/L Round 2: -4.2 units P/L Season: -8.1 units 1pt Bulldogs 1-12 @ 4.00 (Pinnacle) Bulldogs impressed me last weekend, while the Dragons managed a golden point win against a rather unimpressive Knights performance. I'm not taking anything away from the Dragons performance because it was good, as we have come to expect from the Dragons, but I see another close game here, so there is every chance it will fall in the Bulldogs favour. The English import James Graham was really impressive and with Barba sniffing around the ruck, a ball playing front rower is especially dangerous. 1pt Raiders 13+ @ 5.35 (Pinnacle) I'm not claiming the Raiders are world-beaters, or the Titans are a poor team, but I think the Raiders are a team that seem to win well or don't win at all. There are several occasions over the last year and a bit where the Raiders have had great chances to win close games and thrown them away through schoolboy errors. There has been some talk about refereeing decisions in the media with regards to the Storm - Raiders match last week, but the Raiders should have been able to hold onto a lead with less than 5 minutes left regardless of what calls went against them earlier in the game. The Titans were impressive last week, but I am not so sure whether it wasn't just a horrid display from the Cowboys that led to their 18-0 win. To be honest, if a team only completes around 40% of their sets, you would probably expect the other side to score more than 18 points. On the other hand, the Raiders lost to a team tipped to be there or thereabouts come finals time, and in doing so made the most meters in the competition for the round (and an 80% completion!) despite playing in near monsoonal conditions. I'm expecting Terry Campese to have a bigger role this week, as playing your first game back from a knee reconstruction in the mud wouldn't be easy. On a drier surface I think he will back himself more to run the ball.

[blackcrow]

Re: NRL 2012 - Round 2

Sea Eagles -1.5 @ 2.07 :) Broncos -7.5 @ 2.03 :eyes

Raiders -5.5 @ 3.15 centrebet Thought the Raiders wee unlucky last week to lose to the Storm last week, as they everything jsut about right to win it, while the Titans played well last week in the win over the Cowboys. However, their victory had more to do with how poor the Cowboys were and doubt that they will be this fortunate two weeks in a row. They face another big forward pack here, and having played in the humid and trying conditions in Townsville last week, then they may have some fatigue in this game, considering they are yet to gain match fitness. Like the Raiders to atone for last weeks loss and register a rare win on the Gold Coast Dragons -6.5 @ 2.10 centrebet Like the Dragons to win again here, as their forward pack looked good last week, and the defence held up pretty well. They should be able to contain a Bulldogs pack that is without Pritchard, who is one player who could have hurt them, and the rest of the pack is pretty straight forward. There is enough size and mobility in the Dragons forward pack to lay the platform for this some good yardage, and this should set up their backs to attack them out wide. Not impressed with the Bulldogs win last week as the Panthers did help them out by plaing poorly in the second half while the Dragons were much more consistent last week in the win over the Knights Season record: 4-4 (+2.07)

[turkiye911]

Re: NRL 2012 - Round 2 Statistics show that the Raiders have never beat the Titans @ the Gold Coast (Skilled Park), Something to think about..

[lockscombi]

Re: NRL 2012 - Round 2 Spewing I didnt go with my balls on the cowboys. Lesson learnt. NEVER GIVE UP VALUE! Dogs 2u @ 2.54 Betfair = value, This one can go either way for mine. 50 cents is huge imo Sharks 2u @ 2.28 Sportsbet = value , really like sharks here. Solid side with Carney leading like a champ. Newcastle well over-rated imo Penrith 2u@2.62 Betfair = value Rabbits 2u@3.05 Betfair = value Warriors -5.5 2u@2.1 Betfair

[Lahrio]

Re: NRL 2012 - Round 2 Really disappointed. Got the results right but the margins were the wrong way around. :(

[blackcrow]

Re: NRL 2012 - Round 2

Raiders -5.5 @ 3.15 :ok Dragons -6.5 @ 2.10 :(

Season record: 5.5 (+3.22) Sharks -3.5 @ 2.66 centrebet Both the Sharks and the Knights missed out in extra time last week, so it will be interesting to see who is the more motivated for this clash. Like the Sharks here more than the Knights as they look like they have a point to prove after a poor season last year, with the muc better forward pack, and with Carney playing behind them, he can do so damage, like he did in the second half against the Tigers last week. These two teams look pretty similar on paper, but like the Sharks to do enough to edge this Roosters -6.5 @ 2.10 centrebet Roosters should be still riding a massive high after somehow scoring two tries in the last two minutes to overcome the Rabbitohs last week, while the Panthers will have some soul-searching after they dominated the first half against the Bulldogs, but then let themselves down in the seconf half to lose the game. Both teams have good sets of forward packs but the Roosters have the edge in the backs, with the Panthers now having lost Gordon, they have one less attacking threat out wide. The Roosters have won 5 of their last 8 clashes and like them to make it two straight, as they should play much better than they did last week, while the Panthers may need more time to get things going for them Storm -7.5 @ 1.99 centrebet Storm continued where they let off last season as they managed to find a way to edge past the luckless Raiders while the Rabbitohs would have been shell-shocked to have lost to the Roosters in the end. Both teams are strong up front, but the Storm are consistent, and they grind teams away with their forward pack. Expect the Rabbitohs to be competitive but they do not have players like Slater and Cronk in the backline to win them games, and this is where the Storm have a significant edge over them. The Storm have beaten the Rabbitohs in 15 of their 18 meetings, including the last 8 games in Melbourne, and expect them to continue their dominance here.

[Lahrio]

Re: NRL 2012 - Round 2 Another couple of losses last night, albeit still value picks in my opinion. P/L Round 2: -6.2 units P/L Season: -10.1 units 3pts Newcastle @ 1.74 (Pinnacle) I'm going to against the grain of just about everyone I know here and pick the Knights. The Sharks played well last week, but I honestly feel like Newcastle will only improve from what we saw last week. It looked like they were still trying to gel in the back line against the Dragons, and I think with the quality of Boyd, Uate, Naquima out wide, they will be hard to stop. The Sharks have a great forward pack, and one that performed better than Newcastle last week, but their back line is a bit light in my opinion. If you could pick one coach to get his team to bounce back after a loss, you would take Wayne Bennett every time. He has proven over 20 years that he can do it, and I think we will see a much better performance from the Knights this week. 6pts Storm @ 1.44 (Pinnacle) 3pts Storm -6.5pts @ 1.88 (Pinnacle) The Storm really are a tough team to beat, particularly at home. Blackcrow already mentioned their imposing home record, and that record can generally be applied to all sides that travel to Melbourne (perhaps not the Warriors). The Souths are coming off a loss after conceding 2 tries in the final 2 minutes against the Roosters, and prior to that, have looked really poor in their trial matches. As I said last week, the Storm finally have a team that looks a bit weak in certain positions, however, against a big and relatively immobile forward pack, Cronk/Slater/Smith should be able to pick apart the central defence of the Souths. It seems like a rather lop-sided match to me, and I expect a big win for the Storm.

[Lahrio]

Re: NRL 2012 - Round 2 Good to get back to winning ways after Sunday with all my selections winning quite comfortably. :ok P/L Round 2: +1.3 units P/L Season: -2.6 units

[blackcrow]

Re: NRL 2012 - Round 2

Sharks -3.5 @ 2.66 :( They butchered this game. Should have won Roosters -6.5 @ 2.10 :( Storm -7.5 @ 1.99 :D

Season record: 6-7 (+2.21) Warriors -6.5 @ 2.10 centrebet Doubt that Hayne plays for the Eels here, and even if he did, do not think that they have enough to stop the Warriors, who were impresive in their loss to Manly last week. While the Eels went down to the Broncos, it was the manner of their defeat, to suggest that they do not have many attacking options, certainly not as much as the Warriors have, to win this game. The Eels lacked creativity and imagination in their game, and the Warriors look much better than them al over the park.

[Lahrio]

Re: NRL 2012 - Round 2 I agree with Blackcrow here. 6pts Warriors -4.5pts @ 1.93 (Pinnacle) As I mentioned last weekend, the Eels have added some decent players to their back line, but it is their forwards who looks rather weak. The Warriors have more than enough quality in their forward pack to take care of the Eels tonight in my view, and they have players like Vatuvei and Johnson in the back line to take advantage of what I expect to be quite a few metres up the middle. The Eels have, for some strange reason, dropped Luke Burt who played in NSW Cup on Sunday. I can only assume he isn't fit because it is mind boggling why they would drop a seasoned professional for less experienced players such as Ken Sio and Cheyse Blair. Burt's exclusion will only weaken the Eels outfit in my view, and they will again be relying heavily on miracle plays from Sandow and Hayne if he plays.

[Lahrio]

Re: NRL 2012 - Round 2 The Warriors take me back into profit for the season. P/L Round 2: +6.88 units P/L Season: +2.98 units

[blackcrow]

Re: NRL 2012 - Round 2

Warriors -6.5 @ 2.10

:ok Season record: 7-7 (+3.31)