27th February - 4th March

[fishy25]

Re: 27th February - 4th March Slightly disappointing yesterday with Parra-Santnja falling a game short of covering the handicap despite having game points. Karlovic's serve wasn't as reliable as it usually was either meaning the bigger bet lost giving me a small loss. Only consolation being all my outrights got through their first round matches and Gulbis' draw has opened up massively with Karlovic, Cilic and Troicki going out. Having a couple that start soonish with me left stranded in bed ill so thought I may as well have a look at the card. Novak Djokovic vs Sergiy Stakhovsky- Over 17.5 games- 11/10 Bet365- (3/10) Watched most of Djokovic's match against Stebe and it must be said he looked a little rusty which was maybe to be expected given he hasn't played since the Australian Open. He did make a fair few unforced though, far more than we have become accustomed to see from the Serb so Stakhovsky should be able to hold some comfortable service games. The Ukrainian is usually pretty solid on serve anyways and although he hasn't had the best start to the season, it must be said he has been a tad unlucky with his early draws. This overs is more down to Djokovic though and I think it may take him another match or two to get back into the swing of things so taking the overs here. Juan Martin Del Potro vs Andrey Golubev- Over 18.5 games- 4/5 Bet365- (3/10) Prefer the overs here to the handicap as Golubev has the ability to self destruct at any time but I do feel he should be able to keep this moderately close for a while. He had a rotten year last season it must be said but he's started 2012 a lot better and I certainly feel he will climb the ranking quite significantly this year as his ranking really doesn't show what he's capable of. He took a set of Almagro in Spain a few weeks ago in the Davis Cup which was a good effort and beat Youzhny in Melbourne before injury hampered him against Gasquet so there are signs that he is returning to a bit of form. Can't really fault Del Potro over the past few weeks as he made the final in Rotterdam before winning the title in Marseille the week after which is a super effort. Whether or not all that tennis will catch up with him this week I don't know, but towards the end of that match with Dolgopolov, he did perhaps show signs of fatigue. Regardless of his condition, Golubev has a lot of power in his strokes and possesses a decent serve and I think he should have it in him to cause Del Potro some problems and cover the overs in this one.

[Atko]

Re: 27th February - 4th March And a few more for later in the day ... - Carlos Berlocq -2 games AH @ 1.88: Berlocq playing seriously good tennis at the moment on the clay. Covered this line against today's opponent Starace in Brazil and has beaten higher calibre of player in last few weeks. Ought to have too much off the deck against the Italian. - Marcel Granollers @ 1.90: Very good win over Bellucci in R1 and despite Giraldo's surprise win over Nalbandian, the Colombian's form has been average. Don't think his game matches up well with Granollers' aggressive approach. Spaniard is very underrated and in my opinion, should be shorter. - Alex Bogomolov -2.5 games @ 1.88: Bogo evidently in the mood, judging by the way he spanked Yani. He'll offer far more resistence to Matosevic than Karlovic did in the return games. The Aussie is average once in the rally and I reckon Bogomolov will have too much in that department. - Andrey Golubev +5.5 games @ 2.02: Slightly risky as Golubev is a headcase but Del Potro looked tired yesterday, he's played a lot of tennis recently and won't appreciate another quick turnaround. Argentine should win but think Golubev will stand up to him. :hope

[WinningTipster]

Re: 27th February - 4th March Hi guys, 1 picks for ATP DELRAY BEACH later today: ISNER-SWEETING OVER 21.5 GAMES @ 1.61 on bet365 Isner is not at his best and should not win easily. Expect it to be a long close match.

[homunculus]

Re: 27th February - 4th March Berdych to bt Murray @2.53 Pinnacle I will be sorry for that because last year I did swear I shall never back again this choker, but I can't ignore that 1) Berdych has beaten Murray last 3 out of four times they met, including the end of last year's season on Paris i-hard. 2) Murray struggles in this tournament, losing a set with Berrer in R1 and 3) Berdych seems to be in good shape lately, except perhaps that spank from Del Potro last week in Rotterdam - but Berdych always had problem with Del Potro, while Andy seems to be good matchup for him. Last year in Dubai Tomas was forced to retire against Nole in the semis because of flu. It was apparent that he is pissed as hell because of that, and for sure he will want to meet Djoker in the semis again. Andy did not play in Dubai last year, actually he moved to IW directly from Rotterdam. No points to defend then. He was in Dubai three times before 2011, but never made it past QF, losing to Tipsarevic (in R16) and Davydenko, and gave one w/o to Gasquet. Andy usually sucks in this part of season. I think that considering all those circumstances, 2.53 is pretty decent.

[homunculus]

Re: 27th February - 4th March Player to win Dubai: Federer @3.60 Pinnacle Things are getting clearer by now. Fedex seems to be in the best shape of the big 3 members attending this tournament. He plays vs Youzhny in QF, with H2H 11:0 for Fedex there should be no question who wins. Actually, the last win comes from last week in Rotterdam, where Youzhnyi did not come to the match at all (a walkover for Fedex). He then meets either Del Potro or Tsonga. I did not like Tsonga yesterday against Rosol - Rosol should have been double bageled, but he even broke Tsonga once! As to Del Potro, the man has the potential to beat Fedex, but he always mentally collapses against the absolute top players, so IMO Fedex should made it to final. There he mets Djoker, who, as the only one, is heavier fav (at 2.05) than Fedex. But, frankly, having seen Djoker's matches, I expect Fedex to win this potential final.

[IAmGooner]

Re: 27th February - 4th March 1/2 yesterday, +4.08 pts for the week now. Bit disappointed about the Nishikori result but I'm happy with the bet I played as he was the better player, cruised in the first set then had multiple match points to wrap it up in 2 sets, lost the breaker and was injured in the 3rd and got bagelled which shouldnt happen against a clown like Chardy. Retire you idiot........:lol

[Atko]

Re: 27th February - 4th March Difficult day yesterday. Followed IAG on Nishikori so feel your pain there bud. Here's my first bet of today. - Ivan Dodig +3 games AH (v Philipp Kohlschreiber) @ 1.99 with 188bet There are certain players who 90% of the time I look to oppose with a plus and Kohlschreiber fits into that category. He's got more talent than his opponent Dodig, but he's always likely to go missing in matches and gift games away. Dodig has showed plenty of heart in the last few weeks - he battled back to beat Bernard Tomic last week and came from a set down to beat Matthais Bachinger on Tuesday. He's gutsy, pulls out big serves when he needs to and is more likely to come through clutch moments than the German. They've met once before on Davis Cup duty and Kohlschreiber won in five sets. I suspect we'll see another close match. Kohlschreiber is playing decent tennis right now but he's still fragile and Dodig is the sort of player who doesn't give up. He'll scrap until the end and could easily pinch this if Kohlschreiber lets his guard down. I thought we'd be looking at a +2 game line so feel there's plenty of value in this. :hope

[Alovenac]

Re: 27th February - 4th March 3/10 Youzhny +5.5 games tb. Federer @ 1.73 Little bit to high line in my eyes. Youzhny play good last two weeks, okay Federer had a good history against Youzhny. Youzhny had a good week in Dubai and playing very well yesterday against Fish. I see him to win 7 games but 6-4 6-3 is enough for this bet :).

[homunculus]

Re: 27th February - 4th March

Berdych to bt Murray @2.53 Pinnacle LOSS

Well, this is about the 10th time this lame choker did let me down.

[Alovenac]

Re: 27th February - 4th March

3/10 Youzhny +5.5 games tb. Federer @ 1.73 Little bit to high line in my eyes. Youzhny play good last two weeks, okay Federer had a good history against Youzhny. Youzhny had a good week in Dubai and playing very well yesterday against Fish. I see him to win 7 games but 6-4 6-3 is enough for this bet :). :nana

6-3 6-4, so close but is enough to win this bet :)

[Fizruhas]

Re: 27th February - 4th March

Kohlshreiber - Dodig OVER 21.5 games 1.7@unibet! 6/10! Well i think that this should be at least one game higher, this could go in tie break and it should do it. Theese guys have met before and played 5 sets in Davis cup, where the german won. German looks on fire right now, and playing some great tennis, but i think that Ivan is able to give him at least one great set battle, so Over looks very nice here! GL !

[Fizruhas]

Re: 27th February - 4th March Janko Tipsarevic to beat Novak Djokovic 6@unibet 2/10! Well, you may surprise to see that, but i will try to catch that odd here. Novak looks not that good at the moment, and definetly is farr away from his best. Only thing that always vories that both of them are serbs, and i can see some type of fixing theese kind of games ... Serbian mafia could do the thing :) just try to go on the higher priced on Tipsy hoping that they fixing it that way :cigar

[slider24]

Re: 27th February - 4th March ATP Acapulco: Fernando Verdasco - Nicolas Almagro OVER 22.5 GAMES @ 5/6 bet 365 Strength (6/10) Good chance of this going over the line here. Almagro in better form, like a machine on clay, however he should be feeling pretty fatigued right now. He's had alot of three setters and now he comes up against a fresh Verdasco who looks to be finding some form. Verdasco also leads the head to head so despite not being the player he was a couple of years ago, he should still provide stern resistance due to liking the match up. Can't see either guy getting the job done easily here; Verdasco not playing well enough and Almagro has been slacking in at least one set in alot of his matches. :hope

[IAmGooner]

Re: 27th February - 4th March ATP Dubai - Federer -3.5 games vs Del Potro @ 2.10 (Paddy Power:2pts) Fancy the great man to come through with a bit to spare here. Del Potro has played a fair amount of tennis recently, coming off 2 finals in the last 2 weeks in Rotterdam where he lost to Fed in 2 and a win in Paris beating Llodra and now going deep in this event. Took care of Tsonga again today, but he did look a little sluggish in that one and Tsonga played like a huge clown in the second set. Fed is a class above, really tough match-up for Delpo with his variety and aggressive tennis. Think the great man has a shot at this handicap in 2 or even 3 sets. GL.........:hope

[sportxtipster]

Re: 27th February - 4th March Djokovic vs Murray Fancy a great match here and no 2-0 for Djokovic. Will be a match of studying, especially from Murray, cause for sure will see an identical semifinal in Indianapolis! Although, I expect a "normal" set as length, seeing the stats of Murray: 8 of last 10 matches have ended with such result! 9-10 games in the first set @ 1.95 with William Hill Federer tb Del Potro -1.5 sets @ 1.88 Pinnacle Sports My concern if Roger wants a direct fight with Djokovic in the final of this tournament. He might, as he probably understood that he is very exposed due to his age and he should preffer the honors of a final than to hide in order to protect his morale before Indian Wells!Del Potro played great this year, except for the matches with Federer where we could easily saw that he is way below the Swiss in terms of quality! Expect Del Potro to lose 0-2!

[IAmGooner]

Re: 27th February - 4th March Will have another 2 more, see what happens. ATP Dubai - Murray +1.5 sets vs Djokovic @ 1.909 (Pinnacle:2pts) Basically Murray to win a set today. Cant say I've been overly impressed with either tbh this week. Tipsarevic threw away that tie-break yesterday and Stakhovsky was giving Nole sweats earlier too. Murray and Berdych was an horrendous match really, terrible quality, and of course Murray wasnt that good vs Berrer or Chuidinelli either. But it's one of the tougher match-ups for Nole on the tour, Murray can hang with him from the baseline, Djokovic clearly the better and more mentally tough player but in a 3 set match, Djoker at 1.3ish seems too short in my eyes. Murray was very close to taking him out in Australia but choked late in the 5th set. Stage isnt as big today, big masters events coming up aswell and I like Andy's chances a bit more in a 3 set format. Would have Djoker at 1.5-1.6 at least tbh. ATP Acapulco - Wawrinka to bt Verdasco @ 2.090 (Pinnacle:2pts) Verdasco seems to be having his first good week in ages, beating Volandri and Chela easily before Almagro yesterday. But I just cant ignore his poor form recently losing to Andreev, Ramos and before that Tomic in Oz. Watching his match vs Almagro yesterday, my thoughts throughout were that if Almagro was fresh(he's coming off 2 finals in the last 2 weeks) he would win well, he looked knackered and while there were moments of good play from Verdasco, he got very tight at times(broken serving for the match at 5-4, double fault at deuce) and but for an Almagro tank in the tie-break(Nico was 4 or 5-2 up I think, IMO he started spraying errors after to get the hell out of there, doubt he could be too competitive in a 3rd set) that one could have went on longer. Still plenty of loose points from Verdasco aswell as nice shotmaking. Same can be said for Wawrinka in general I think. He had a good week last week in Argentina, losing in semi's to Almagro, beat Ferrero, Ramos and Chardy this week. Should be a tough match, guess I'm just not full convinced by Verdasco as a fave in this clash tbh, if he wins this one I'll maybe start thinking he's getting back to his best. But Ferrer will kill him in the final anyway if he gets there. Stan as the slight underdog for me in this one to see if Nando really is returning to his best form. GL.............:hope

[fishy25]

Re: 27th February - 4th March Nothing really doing this week so far. Quick update on the outrights in which 2 picks are through to the semis whilst Gulbis is favourite in his quarter final later on today. Quite happy that Verdasco beat Almagro last night and hopefully Stan go set up a final clash with Ferrer. Am having 3 other bets today over in Dubai. Found myself agreeing with IAG really. Novak Djokovic vs Andy Murray- Over 22.5 games- 10/11 Bet365- (3/10) Tie Break in Match- 11/10 Bet365- (2/10) You can get lower lines on the total game market but even if these two play out a couple of tight sets, it could still be covered whilst 3 sets definitely will. I do expect a close match between these two today with both far from their best this week. Djokovic was lucky that he wasn't taken to 3 sets by Tipsarevic yesterday and Stakhovsky really pushed him in the game before that. Murray as well hasn't played particularly well either and if Berdych had played better, that would have been going the distance as well. Like IAG has said, Murray is one of the few players right now that can cope with Djokovic in the rallies with his patient style and with the Serb not playing as well as he has been playing, the Scot should find himself with some chances. Just don't see either guy running away with this one and it could easily go to 3 sets. Regardless, I'd expect it to be pretty cagey given the fact that neither play has played anywhere near their best this week so overs looks the call to me. Also having a small punt on a tie break being played in the match at odds against given the fact I'd expect this to be pretty tight for the majority. Roger Federer to win 2-0 vs Juan Martin Del Potro- 10/11 Ladbrokes- (4/10) Price has dropped on the handicap and although I expect Federer to cover it, I don't envisage him dropping a set in the match either. He hasn't dropped a set in the last 3 matches against the Argentine, which equates to 7 sets of tennis, 5 of which have been played this year. He's looked extremely comfortable this week and his serve is working well, not being broken once yet whilst his return game is looking mightily impressive. Del Potro has played a great deal of tennis over the past few weeks, going deep into the tournaments over in Rotterdam and Marseille and now making the semis for the third consecutive week. That's a pretty tough schedule to cope with and that may play a part in this one with Federer mixing his shot selections up and really going for the lines. He managed to cope with any problems that Del Potro put him under a couple of weeks back in Holland, and I don't see him dropping a set again today either.

[Marko87]

Re: 27th February - 4th March

Single @ 1,95 Tennis ATP Delray Beach - 17:00 Philip Kohlschreiber(-4 games)-Dudi Sela 1 This game threw me in the eyes of most. Opposite each other become Germany Kohli, who is now 32 ranking and competitor, who comes from Israel's Dudi Sela, who currently ranks 75 in the ranking of ATP. Kohhlschreiber in the tournament playing very well. First of all you need to select its effectiveness at the first site. in the first game against the always formidable on the surface Rochusovi Mail, 97% of the first application. Amazing thing because I won the 33/34 balls. Second injection was wrong and this game looked like a jam. A completely different matter took place in the second match of Dodigiem runfy. When correcting the second administration of Germany swept the tennis Dodig, which the courts could jeopardize hard. Looking at the results of the German in this season shows that he is determined to progress in its results, even though the season started, and so as well (among other things came to 1/16 AO where he lost to Del Potro). Kohli played the last match in Rotterdam and it occurred February 13. He lost time with an Italian Seppim. So he had plenty of time to prepare for the Delray Beach. The Seli hardly anything positive to say. Nieminem in yesterday's fight was the only player worth mentioning, whom he beat in this season. In addition, there were some players like Fognini, pair and Beck. These are not the players prefer hard courts. Yesterday, a surprising result and beat Nieminen, which is uneven and very good matches intertwined very weak. Yesterday was the worse days. Handicap fairly sizable so that's why the only option at -4 to 4 gems Kohliego victory was the return rate. Philip Kohlschreiber-Dudi Sela 11-18

[IAmGooner]

Re: 27th February - 4th March 1/2 in the Dubai semi's. Murray came through and won the match well, a case of one man wanting it more it seemed so happy with that. Federer fell short of covering the handicap though, had set points and break chances while rarely being troubled on serve himself but tbf to Delpo he played well on big points and Fed's return game is just not in line with the best these days. Kinda wanted Delpo to take the tb at 5-0 up in the second set to keep my bet running in the 3rd but he ended up losing from that position, Fed played some nice points but you feel that Delpo has way too much respect for Fed at times. Anyway, content enough with today's action. Thought Murray was overpriced and would play a Fed -hcap most times vs Del Potro,.

[fishy25]

Re: 27th February - 4th March Got to laugh at the tournament over in Delray Beach. Got spectators doing the chicken dance between sets. Only a handful look in the remotest bit interested :rollin And with that comes my first ever blacklist in tennis. Enter Ernests Gulbis :lol Always knew what I was letting myself into backing him with the outright but genuinely thought he had a chance this week. To have a draw of Falla-Darcis-Matosevic-Sela en-route to an ATP final for a guy of Gulbis' quality and not make it sums the guy up. A set up against the Australian and cruising, only to win a further 2 games in the match is truly laughable against a guy ranked outside the top 150. He literally couldn't have asked for a better draw and quite where Gulbis goes with his tennis, I really don't know. Very poor to say the least.

[IAmGooner]

Re: 27th February - 4th March Was actually a good bet from you mate, well thought out and it had opened up well for him, Gulbis does have the odd good week in him and the price was appealing. Only caught a bit of the 3rd set there and Gulbis did look pretty horrific, errors and more errors. Pretty much a waste of talent it has to be said. He really has alot going for him, but the guy doesnt have to work ethic it seems. Delray Beach does have a challenger feel to it doesnt it.

[fishy25]

Re: 27th February - 4th March Yeah he was certainly involved in the much weaker side of the draw with the likes of Isner/Tomic/Roddick in the top half. And the fact he didn't have to play a single seed makes it pretty frustrating that he didn't win today. First set he wasn't making too many unforced errors like he was in the 2nd and 3rd sets, and he always looked comfortable. He just went missing after that and it's hard to understand why, given he's a former winner here and knows he'll be a big favourite to make the final if he won today. Know what you mean in the sense that it feels like a challenger event though. Either Sela or Matosevic in an ATP 250 final? Would a gulf in talent it would be if say Sela played Roddick in the final :unsure Hope Wawrinka pulls through for you tonight mate, still have the outright going on him and a win tonight secures a decent return even if he loses to Ferrer in the final.

[IAmGooner]

Re: 27th February - 4th March Wow, didnt know Sela had beaten Kohli.........:rollin....crazy event. Kohli is the definition of a player who should not be backed as a heavy favourite. I stayed away from Delray Beach mostly after seeing the Matosevic/Karlovic result earlier in the week, assumed courts must be playing kinda slow but hadnt watched any until the 3rd set of Gulbis tonight. I see Isner is taking Tomic down as we speak to which is good news, cant stand that brat. Think Stan has a good shot tonight,playing the odds as much as anything and I'm still not convinced by Verdasco. Stan is not someone I like backing in all honesty, flaky as hell so a long-ish match wouldn't shock me. If the odds were reversed I wouldnt get involved. Fingers crossed for us..........:hope

[sportxtipster]

Re: 27th February - 4th March Teixeira vs Ignatik Ignatik is a heavy server and one that will grow a lot this year! Happy to see him 2-3 matches and happy to follow him from now on! Sorry for not seeing his match with Goffin today, but against Teixeira will win for sure. Ignatik is going to enter quick in the top 100 ATP from this 220 position that is on now! Ignatik @ 1.95 with bwin Murray vs Federer Yes, might be a winner Murray against Djokovic, might have Lendl behind, but doesn't have the class of Federer. What Federer showed against Del Porto is the class of a real tennis player! Federer is not offering not even a break chance, while Murray is offering many and to every one. Expect Federer to play this classy tennis and leave Murray with the eyes in the sun! Federer -1.5 sets @ 2.98 with Pinnacle Sports

[caligulaxx]

Re: 27th February - 4th March Awfull day today. To round it up i see Stan the Man is having another one of his shitty days, maybe he'll eventually decide to lose a couple of pounds off his fat ass

[fishy25]

Re: 27th February - 4th March And the outrights continue to disappoint for the second week running :lol Stan never looked particularly likely there and Verdasco didn't have to really do much to win it. Did think Wawrinka's strategy was wrong though. On the rare occasions he forced the Spaniard to the net, he won the majority of the points including a couple of drop shots. The backhand wasn't working well at all so should have mixed it up a bit I thought. Especially at the end with Verdasco tight as anything.

[IAmGooner]

Re: 27th February - 4th March Aye, Stan was poor. Left with a meagre +1.9pt profit for this week, not gonna chance my luck as I'm not feeling too strongly about todays card right now. Good luck fellas.

[homunculus]

Re: 27th February - 4th March Week #9 summary

Cipola to bt Ljubicic 2.820 Pinnacle :ok Berdych to bt Murray @2.53 Pinnacle :@ Player to win Dubai: Federer @3.60 Pinnacle :ok

+3.4 FLAT units profit for the week, which is quite nice. See ya in Indian Wells

[Torque]

Re: 27th February - 4th March

Gonna have a go at an outright this week and see how I get on... Andy Murray to win Dubai Tennis Championships @ 8.0 Betfair I think Murray has a decent chance this week. I liked what I saw of him at the Australian Open, and although he came up just short once again, I think that unlike in previous years he will have come away feeling positive about his game and the future. Having Lendl as his coach appears to have really made a difference, even in the short space of time that they have been together. I think this is partly due to the fact that Lendl was such a great player who loved to win, and who was relentless in his pursuit of titles. I am sure he has been trying to emphasize to Murray that winning is a habit, and that will hopefully help to ensure that Murray avoids the post-Australian Open slump that he has experienced in recent years. The obvious danger in Murray's half is Djokovic, and whilst his form has to be respected, I can't take him at the prices on offer. Djokovic should make it through his quarter easily, although Tipsarevic may put up some resistance if he makes it to the quarter-final. I don't see anything to trouble Murray in his quarter, although Davydenko has been showing some signs of a return to form recently. Berdych is also in his quarter, but his recent match against Del Potro makes me question his form and motivation - I didn't see the match but a second set breadstick suggests that he was either completely outclassed, which is worrying, or that he capitulated, which is also worrying. I expect that Murray will make the semi-final, and if he does make the final I will lay the bet off so that it becomes in effect an each-way bet.

+22.77pts :ok

[sportxtipster]

Re: 27th February - 4th March Isner vs Anderson Isner played very well here and his service won confidence match by match. Anderson was very close to a defeat against a poor Andy Roddick, but in the end the winner takes all, so he was the lucky guy. Isner knows can go in the final of the competition, knows he is much better than Anderson. Anderson didn't have the best serve in this tournament and that will give him a headache against a player like Isner! Isner -1.5 sets @ 2.52 with Pinnacle Sports Ferrer vs Verdasco -1.5 sets @ 2.08 with Sportingbet Ferrer is a complete and constant player! Except for the match lost with Djocovic and a set lost with Falla, Almagro and Sweeting he lost nothing. Verdasco is a player able to beat Chela and Almagro, but lost with Ramos-Vinolas and Andreev! Ferrer should come here and test all the way the backhand of his opponent. He is more competitive and he can outplay Verdasco in 2 sets!