UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 22 February

[western skies]

[TABLE=class: couponTable]

[TR] [TH][/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Wednesday 22 February 2012[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] FC Basel v FC Bayern München (19:45 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 7 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 4.4 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.57 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]100.65 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Olympique Marseille v Internazionale (19:45 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.4 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.3 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.3 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]102.27 %[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[TotoSchillaci]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 22 February Haven't seen Marseille play this season but just off face value you have to say they have a strong chance of winning this encounter. They've only lost 1 home game in Ligue 1. The main reason though is that Inter are finally starting to unravel and show their age as evidenced in the 3-0 loss to Bologna at the weekend. Ranieri said he couldn't give a reason for the loss. Well quite simply they're an old team. They still rely too heavily on Stankovic, Cambiasso, Zanetti, Milito, Maicon etc. Plus now apparently Ranieri always plays Snjeider out of his preferred position which stifles his effectiveness so that he can fit into Ranieri's "system". Alot of poor results lately for Inter.... Thinking at least of a DNB around 1.55 @ Centrebet as I really can't see Inter getting a win in France. Maybe they'll even play for 0-0 and roll the dice at San Siro

[Mustafa]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 22 February It is always tricky betting on matches involving French sides in my opinion. Plus Inter have been playing poor lately. I think it is better to avoid Win-Draw-Win markets here. As for the Basel I think that a team that eliminated Man.United deserves some credit and should not be priced @ 6.00-7.00.

[punter83]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 22 February Basel is obviously not bad. But what I ve figured out is that Bayern is especially really strong after playing really weak the game before. they only drawed against relegation candidate Freiburg last week and munich team criticised by everybody. Cause team spirit is good and quality too, they will show better against basel. Bayern@1,57 is value

[Fedar]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 22 February Again, a good advice for successful bets is to rely more on watching the games of the teams you are betting on, rather than relying on raw stats. I know Bayern is looking like an absolute winner here, but I watched lately there last three away games against Gladbach, Hamburger and Freiburg, and I must say Bayern's performance was just terrible, definitely not the away form you will be relying on to put your bets. On Saturday against Freiburg they were totally outplayed by the last team in the Bundesliga. Bayern had enormous difficulties organizing their attacks when they faced fierce pressure by Freiburg's midfield. A lot of passing mistakes by Bayern's midfield, lack of consistent control over the rhythm of the game, and simply relying on outbursts by Ribery and Roben. To add to that, Bayern also committed many defensive mistakes, which luckily for them went unpunished by Freiburg. And guess what - Basel is exactly that type of team who would employ a lot of defensive pressure against the opposing midfield at home. They play simple, efficient and well-organized football, and are particularly effective at home in front of their fanatic crowd. Asian handicap of +1 at 1.9 is just the right bet for me. Basel AH +1 at 1.9

[TotoSchillaci]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 22 February Personally I wouldn't touch Bayern missing SChweinsteiger. As Fedar said "

A lot of passing mistakes by Bayern's midfield, lack of consistent control over the rhythm of the game", precisely this is due to his absence as he is the Xavi of this team.

[McNasara]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 22 February Basel v Bayern 2, clear facts: Basel conceded more goals than any other the other teams who qualified for the Last 16 (10) and they're the first Swiss side to reach the knock out stage in the CL era. Basel have won none and lost four of their six European games against German opposition but they've lost just one of their last seven matches in Europe. On the other hand, Nine of the 11 goals Bayern have scored have been netted in the first half, the highest proportion of any team in the Group Stage this season (82%). Bayern have played five matches against Swiss sides in Europe, winning four, including a win home and away against Basel in the 20010-11 CL Group Stage. Marseille v Inter 7, clear facts: Marseille have never scored more than once in their 14 encounters against Italian opposition in Europe (excluding Intertoto Cup). Their record against Italian sides is even, with five wins, five defeats and four draws in 14 games. Marseille posted the worst shooting accuracy of the teams who qualified for the Last 16, hitting the target with just 38% of their attempts. Inter's last four Champions League goals have been scored by four different Argentine players (Samuel, Milito, Álvarez and Cambiasso). Italian side scored more goals from corners than any other side this season in the Champions League Group Stage (three).

[western skies]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 22 February :welcometo PL Fedar. Great post, but could you please include the bookie that you're taking the bet with as well in future? Excellent write up though - hope you stick around. :ok

[Fedar]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 22 February Oh, sorry that I skipped that....I am a bit conservative, so I stick with only one bookie - Bet365.

[MPLouis]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 22 February

Again, a good advice for successful bets is to rely more on watching the games of the teams you are betting on, rather than relying on raw stats. I know Bayern is looking like an absolute winner here, but I watched lately there last three away games against Gladbach, Hamburger and Freiburg, and I must say Bayern's performance was just terrible, definitely not the away form you will be relying on to put your bets. On Saturday against Freiburg they were totally outplayed by the last team in the Bundesliga. Bayern had enormous difficulties organizing their attacks when they faced fierce pressure by Freiburg's midfield. A lot of passing mistakes by Bayern's midfield, lack of consistent control over the rhythm of the game, and simply relying on outbursts by Ribery and Roben. To add to that, Bayern also committed many defensive mistakes, which luckily for them went unpunished by Freiburg. And guess what - Basel is exactly that type of team who would employ a lot of defensive pressure against the opposing midfield at home. They play simple, efficient and well-organized football, and are particularly effective at home in front of their fanatic crowd. Asian handicap of +1 at 1.9 is just the right bet for me. Basel AH +1 at 1.9

I saw a lot of Bayern early in the season where they swept all before them, hardly conceding a goal, and keeping the ball with ease denying other teams space and chances. But recently they've tailed off noticeably especially away from home, and Dortmund are looking a much better team in Germany at the moment. Bayern did beat Zurich 1-0 away in the CL group stages. I don't know the Swiss league, but Basel are well above Zurich in the table, so it looks as though they will provide a sterner test. So at the current odds, I'd agree there seems to be some value with Basel at odds of 6.5 (for with win). With Bayern's current poor away form, you could easily imagine they would be happy with a draw in Switzerland tomorrow night. Basel got 4 points against Man United and 1 against Benfica in the group stage, so they have shown they can compete with top European sides. Bayern have enough class to be able to win comfortably, but it seems unlikely that they will, so I think Basel are good value.

[blackcrow]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 22 February Bayern Munich -1.5 @ 2.68 pinnacle Basel have played two games after their winter break, drawing both games, and face a very tough test to beat Bayern Munich here. Though they beat both Man Utd 2-1 and Otelul Galati 2-1 at home, while also losing 2-0 to Benfica, doubt that Bayern Munich will underestimate them like Man Utd did. Bayern Munich have conceded just one goal in 4 of their last 5 games in all competitions, and will be very hard to break down, while they have scored two goals in 3 of them. While they lost 2-0 at Man City, and drew 1-1 at Napoli, they did beat Villareal 2-0 so they had some decent form on the road in the CL group stages. Bayern did beat Basel two years ago in the CL, winning 2-1 in Basel and then 3-0 at home, and if the likes of Ribery, Gomez and Muller fire, then they will be one step closer to playing in the final in their home stadium

[MisterBadham]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 22 February Marseille v Inter Milan Key stat: Marseille are unbeaten in their last 15 games. Inter have lost five and drawn one of their last six matches and conceding a total of 15 goals In the process and can not be trusted against an in form Marseille side. The Italians are weak defensively and don't have much attacking potency so a home win looks the most likely outcome even with Marseille's star man Loic Remy sidelined. Marseille @ 2.10 (10 units) Paddy Power

[McNasara]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 22 February I cant find value in both games currently. In the south of France, both rivals will be weakened in the offensive, while Basel conceded more goals than any other the other teams who qualified for the Last 16 (10), so expect them to play very tight in defense... just for fun at local both games > under 2.5 > @3.60

[BundesligaBets]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 22 February

I cant find value in both games currently. In the south of France' date=' both rivals will be weakened in the offensive, while Basel conceded more goals than any other the other teams who qualified for the Last 16 (10), so expect them to play very tight in defense... just for fun at local both games > under 2.5 > @3.60[/quote'] It is very hard for me to find any value in any of these both games either. As for the Munich match I expect a close game with Bayern winning by maybe one goal. Bwin is offering a special bet "Munich to win and under 3.5 goals in whole game @ 2.45". Really like that. Any opinions? I also might risk a small stake on Marseille to win. Odds are okay if you think about how badly Inter played recently.

[ThusPrider]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 22 February Marseille vs Inter looks quite simple considering the odds. Marseille no doubt have been doing much better domestically than Inter, though the strength of the league is widely contrastable. I saw a few of Marseilles games this season, and the most important being a 0 - 1 loss at home against Arsenal, who dominated them for large periods of the game. Team strength odds indicate Marseille as having the stronger squad taking into account home advantage, which I disagree on. 2.00 is much too short to back. Inter in my opinion have no significant injury concerns, whilst Remy will be a bigger miss for Marseille. However the recent drift and shortening in odds of Inter and Marseille respectively might indicate extra team news I am unaware of. Either way its usually overexaggerated imo making Inter very backable. Inter +0.25 2.400 Pinnacle 10/10 Inter 4.490 Pinnacle 3/10

[MPLouis]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 22 February

It is very hard for me to find any value in any of these both games either. As for the Munich match I expect a close game with Bayern winning by maybe one goal. Bwin is offering a special bet "Munich to win and under 3.5 goals in whole game @ 2.45". Really like that. Any opinions?

Maybe there is some value in under 2.5 goals in the Basle v Bayern game at 2.1. All of Bayern's away CL games this season have been under

[ultravires]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 22 February I can see something in Inter +0.5 to be honest. They have been poor of late but I think there may be a mental reaction in this match to some degree. They can take the CL on a match by match basis as opposed to seeing themselves so far behind Milan and Juventus. Having said that their results have been quite shocking of late. Almost certain that they will go 4-4-1-1 in this: Cesar; Maicon, Lucio, Samuel, Nagatomo; Zanetti, Poli, Cambiasso, Obi; Sneijder, Milito. It's a quite defensive minded side. Zanetti and Obi will cover the flanks while not being great going forward. Poli has actually looked decent of late and has some fire in his belly. Sneijder behind Milito is their best option up front. No doubt about it Inter would be happy with a draw and I think they'll play with that in mind. If the players come out focussed then that will be a tough team to beat. I don't know how they will be feeling so I'll watch with an eye to take them on the +0.5 line if they are looking gritty. I think Unders is very likely and maybe even a 0-0.

[TheImp]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 22 February Basel v Bayern Munich Bayern Munich -1 EH @ 2.60 Whilst Basel did well to overcome Man Utd in the group stages and progress, they are a far weaker team than Bayern. Bayern have plenty of players who can score goals, and have been scoring a lot of goals this season. As someone above posted, they have a habit of playing very well and getting a good result in games following a poor result. Bayern will see this as an opportunity to finish the tie in the first leg by getting a few away goals as they know they are strong at home and Basel will probably not get a look in at Bayern.

[Mustafa]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 22 February

Marseille vs Inter looks quite simple considering the odds. Marseille no doubt have been doing much better domestically than Inter, though the strength of the league is widely contrastable. I saw a few of Marseilles games this season, and the most important being a 0 - 1 loss at home against Arsenal, who dominated them for large periods of the game. Team strength odds indicate Marseille as having the stronger squad taking into account home advantage, which I disagree on. 2.00 is much too short to back. Inter in my opinion have no significant injury concerns, whilst Remy will be a bigger miss for Marseille. However the recent drift and shortening in odds of Inter and Marseille respectively might indicate extra team news I am unaware of. Either way its usually overexaggerated imo making Inter very backable. Inter +0.25 2.400 Pinnacle 10/10 Inter 4.490 Pinnacle 3/10

I was about to avoid betting on this game, but no matter their recent form Inter are still Inter and at such a good price I am willing to back them. Inter @ 4.33 (1 unit) ​William Hill

[goodens]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 22 February [TABLE=width: 100%]

[TR] [TD]Sport[/TD] [TD]Football (Champions League)[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Event[/TD] [TD]Basel - Bayern Munchen[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Selection[/TD] [TD]Bayern(-1.5)AH[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Strength[/TD] [TD]5/10[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Date[/TD] [TD]22/02/2012[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Bookmaker/Price[/TD] [TD]Pinnacle Sports @ 2.90[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Reasoning[/TD] [TD] I like the line-up for Bayern in this game. Alaba and Gustavo will be the defensive midfielder, but Alaba is very good in the offence as well. At the same time up-front we have like always Gomez, supported by Kroos, Muller and Ribery. No Robben, it seems, and this is good as he has been awfull lately, very selfish. Basel produce a big shock in eliminating Manchester United in the group stage. Main reason for this has to go to Ferguson who didn't use his best line-ups in most of the games, while his tactics in Basel were wrong. Bayern won both games against Basel 2 years ago in the Group Stage. An easy 3-0 win at home and a hard worked 2-1 win at Basel. Basel does have quality up-front and can score here today, but at the same time their defence has looked really fragile especially at home where Benfica beat them 3-1 while Otelul deserved a point in the 2-1 defeat. With Manchester they were a bit lucky. Odds are good and I'll take a try. [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[AVFCLuke]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 22 February Inter DNB 2/1 @ Hills I've gone small stakes here because I can't believe how under priced Inter are. Yes, they are on an awful run in the league but surely, if anything, the CL is some redemption for them. Although some or most of there players may be ageing there is still quality in the team. I take nothing away from Marseille and they will want to perform in front of their fans tonight so I've played a 'little safe' with the DNB. It will be an interesting game no doubt but I would not be surprised if Inter won tonight.

[MrMal]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 22 February Basel v Bayern Munich The home team have virtually the same team that faced ManU in the last round, which we all know they won 2-1. They have drawn their last 5 matches - 3 of those competitive. Bayern have not been firing on all cylinders lately and their recent away results have not been good. The most they have managed to score away from home (barring friendlies) in the last few months has been 2. Now there is an obvious difference between the leagues and their opposition each week but Basel have not got here by luck. One thing that does worry me is the ref and his recent games - last 3 games have had a red card. At this stage of the competition, being the knockout stage, game plans will be more cautious and especially the away team hoping to bring a lead back home. Bayern might have one eye on their next Bundesliga match against Schalke as they need to make up ground in that league. I think this game will be more closer than the odds suggest. I will punt on the Handicap market - Basel +2 @ 1.40 (8/10) and cover on Handicap Draw (+2) @ 4.50 (5/10) PP0wer

[elmemyself]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 22 February Wow, BSL could be winning 2-0 already, amazing game so far.

[MisterBadham]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 22 February

Marseille v Inter Milan Key stat: Marseille are unbeaten in their last 15 games. Inter have lost five and drawn one of their last six matches and conceding a total of 15 goals In the process and can not be trusted against an in form Marseille side. The Italians are weak defensively and don't have much attacking potency so a home win looks the most likely outcome even with Marseille's star man Loic Remy sidelined. Marseille @ 2.10 (10 units) Paddy Power

A little lucky with a late goal but well deserved from Ayew. Yet again another profit. +11 profit

[ThusPrider]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 22 February

Marseille vs Inter looks quite simple considering the odds. Marseille no doubt have been doing much better domestically than Inter, though the strength of the league is widely contrastable. I saw a few of Marseilles games this season, and the most important being a 0 - 1 loss at home against Arsenal, who dominated them for large periods of the game. Team strength odds indicate Marseille as having the stronger squad taking into account home advantage, which I disagree on. 2.00 is much too short to back. Inter in my opinion have no significant injury concerns, whilst Remy will be a bigger miss for Marseille. However the recent drift and shortening in odds of Inter and Marseille respectively might indicate extra team news I am unaware of. Either way its usually overexaggerated imo making Inter very backable. Inter +0.25 2.400 Pinnacle 10/10 Inter 4.490 Pinnacle 3/10

-13u Inter were good value for my money tonight. Marseille had plenty of spirit but never any cutting edge, hopeless balls into the box into the first half and losing the ball. Inter had all the clear cut chances. Pity most were straight at the keeper or deflected into the keepers hands. Sorry Mustafa, perhaps I lured you into a bet but if you'd seen the game, you'd probably agree long term value was definately on inter.

[McNasara]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 22 February

I cant find value in both games currently. In the south of France' date=' both rivals will be weakened in the offensive, while Basel conceded more goals than any other the other teams who qualified for the Last 16 (10), so expect them to play very tight in defense... just for fun at local both games > [b']under 2.5 > @3.60

both 1:0 without miss this CL midweek :cigar

[Fedar]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 22 February

Basel AH +1 at 1.9

After yesterday's failure with Madrid, today a very solid bet, contrary to the popular opinion in the forum about easy handicap victory for Bayern. Don't want to be annoying and to tease people, who lost money on this, but I believe a good lesson from this game is: watching carefully recent games of the teams you bet on is much more relevant for a successful bet than relying on some stats for games which took places several months ago (Bayern's games in CL in the autumn). Teams' sporting shape might change dramatically over a couple of weeks, and the longer the time span of the stats, the less relevant it is.

[Mustafa]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 22 February

-13u Inter were good value for my money tonight. Marseille had plenty of spirit but never any cutting edge, hopeless balls into the box into the first half and losing the ball. Inter had all the clear cut chances. Pity most were straight at the keeper or deflected into the keepers hands. Sorry Mustafa, perhaps I lured you into a bet but if you'd seen the game, you'd probably agree long term value was definately on inter.

Agree with that. If we back teams with big names at odds like that we definitely will make profit in a long term.

[brasco03]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 22 February I am happy I never bet on this Byern game after all they drew their last game. Who here thinks Benfica playing at home in their next match may make them win in 90 mins?

[blackcrow]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 22 February

Bayern Munich -1.5 @ 2.68 pinnacle Basel have played two games after their winter break, drawing both games, and face a very tough test to beat Bayern Munich here. Though they beat both Man Utd 2-1 and Otelul Galati 2-1 at home, while also losing 2-0 to Benfica, doubt that Bayern Munich will underestimate them like Man Utd did. Bayern Munich have conceded just one goal in 4 of their last 5 games in all competitions, and will be very hard to break down, while they have scored two goals in 3 of them. While they lost 2-0 at Man City, and drew 1-1 at Napoli, they did beat Villareal 2-0 so they had some decent form on the road in the CL group stages. Bayern did beat Basel two years ago in the CL, winning 2-1 in Basel and then 3-0 at home, and if the likes of Ribery, Gomez and Muller fire, then they will be one step closer to playing in the final in their home stadium

:sad