New Zealand vs South Africa - T20 Series & ODI Series

[kevshat]

Having thrashed Zimbabwe silly over the last few weeks the main event of the New Zealand international summer begins on Friday when they host South Africa. The tour begins with three T20's and then has 3 ODI's before the test matches come next month. All the matches are live on Sky and while the limited overs matches aren't at the most watchable times in the UK there will be tons of highlights mixed in with all the other cricket going on right now. All the usual markets should be around and with the World T20 only 6 months or so away the T20's should be very competitive at the very least. Hopefully both limited overs series will be really good with lots of betting opportunities. Schedule: [TABLE=width: 630]

[TR=class: FixOdi] [TD=width: 25%]Fri Feb 17 06:00 GMT | 19:00 local 06:00 GMT [/TD] [TD=width: 50%] 1st T20I - New Zealand v South Africa Westpac Stadium, Wellington [/TD] [TD=width: 20%] 12 - 19° C [/TD] [TD=width: 5%, align: right] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 630, bgcolor: #FFFFFF, colspan: 4][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: FixOdi] [TD=width: 25%] Sun Feb 19 06:00 GMT | 19:00 local 06:00 GMT [/TD] [TD=width: 50%] 2nd T20I - New Zealand v South Africa Seddon Park, Hamilton [/TD] [TD=width: 20%] 13 - 21° C [/TD] [TD=width: 5%, align: right] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 630, bgcolor: #FFFFFF, colspan: 4][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: FixOdi] [TD=width: 25%] Wed Feb 22 06:00 GMT | 19:00 local 06:00 GMT [/TD] [TD=width: 50%] 3rd T20I - New Zealand v South Africa Eden Park, Auckland [/TD] [TD=width: 20%] N/A [/TD] [TD=width: 5%, align: right] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 630, bgcolor: #FFFFFF, colspan: 4][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: FixOdi] [TD=width: 25%] Sat Feb 25 01:00 GMT | 14:00 local 01:00 GMT [/TD] [TD=width: 50%] 1st ODI - New Zealand v South Africa Westpac Stadium, Wellington [/TD] [TD=width: 20%] N/A [/TD] [TD=width: 5%, align: right] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 630, bgcolor: #FFFFFF, colspan: 4][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: FixOdi] [TD=width: 25%] Wed Feb 29 01:00 GMT | 14:00 local 01:00 GMT [/TD] [TD=width: 50%] 2nd ODI - New Zealand v South Africa McLean Park, Napier [/TD] [TD=width: 20%] N/A [/TD] [TD=width: 5%, align: right] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 630, bgcolor: #FFFFFF, colspan: 4][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: FixOdi] [TD=width: 25%] Sat Mar 3 01:00 GMT | 14:00 local 01:00 GMT [/TD] [TD=width: 50%] 3rd ODI - New Zealand v South Africa Eden Park, Auckland [/TD] [TD=width: 20%] N/A [/TD] [TD=width: 5%, align: right] [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[kevshat]

Re: New Zealand vs South Africa - T20 Series & ODI Series 1st T20 tomorrow. I'm going with two. 5pts Over 9.5 6's 5/6 William Hill Pretty obvious pick this in many ways but one which needs to be taken. We're on a rugby ground for this opening match of the series and as we've seen with rugby/football grounds used elsewhere some of the boundaries will be really small. It's hard to judge the 6's in previous matches here because rain has interrupted with most of them and it's a drop in wicket but the one full match which was played here was with two scores in the 140s and there were 10 6's on that occasion so the potential is there. South Africa have brought more 6 hitters with them than usual and New Zealand come into the match off the back of smashing 6's for fun off Zimbabwe over the last couple of weeks. The absence of Taylor and Ryder is a blow for any 6's bet but in McCullum, Gutill, Williamson and the likes of Morkel, de Villiers, Duminy and Ontong there's more than enough 6 hitters on show to ensure we see 10 6's hit in this opening match. 1pt ew J.Ontong Top South Africa Batsman 20/1 Bodog (1/5 1,2,3) I'm taking a bit of a risk with Justin Ontong here because we don't know exactly where he will bat but having named him in the squad I find it hard to believe he won't play or bat as that would be pretty pointless when AB de Villiers has said he's been picked to be tried out before the World T20 later in the year. If he does get in then these boundaries won't be big enough we know that. It's all about where he bats really. He could even open the batting. He's done it before and would be a perfect foil for Hashim Amla at the other end. He's more likely to come in in the middle order but that's no problem as he can hit a big ball. He's more a batting all rounder so I've no idea where this 20/1 comes from other than the fact he hasn't really done it in the international sphere yet. He batted at 6 in the warm up match which was a good position and with the form he's been in for the Cape Cobras recently he's a lot better than a 20/1 shot so I'll take my chances with an each way punt here.

[FreelanceTips]

Re: New Zealand vs South Africa - T20 Series & ODI Series Just 1 for me. 1pt New Zealand defeat South Africa 2.25 Luxbet New Zealand warmed up against admittedly low quality Zimbabwe, but with home conditions and a South African side facing the first fixture of the tour, they'd be forgiven for being a bit rusty. If McCullum gets going and leads NZ from the front, it could be goodnight nurse from the first 6 overs.

[Lahrio]

Re: New Zealand vs South Africa - T20 Series & ODI Series I agree with Kev on the 6's, but I will have to go the other way simply because IASBet are offering their line at 14.5 6's! 15 6's is a lot of sixes for a 40 over match regardless of how small the ground is. Saying that, if I had an account with SkyBet or Hills I would be on the over 9.5 6's. But for me today it's just 1 bet. 5pts Under 14.5 6's @ 1.88 (IASBet)

[Lahrio]

Re: New Zealand vs South Africa - T20 Series & ODI Series

I agree with Kev on the 6's, but I will have to go the other way simply because IASBet are offering their line at 14.5 6's! 15 6's is a lot of sixes for a 40 over match regardless of how small the ground is. Saying that, if I had an account with SkyBet or Hills I would be on the over 9.5 6's. But for me today it's just 1 bet. 5pts Under 14.5 6's @ 1.88 (IASBet)

5pts Over 9.5 6's 5/6 William Hill Pretty obvious pick this in many ways but one which needs to be taken. We're on a rugby ground for this opening match of the series and as we've seen with rugby/football grounds used elsewhere some of the boundaries will be really small. It's hard to judge the 6's in previous matches here because rain has interrupted with most of them and it's a drop in wicket but the one full match which was played here was with two scores in the 140s and there were 10 6's on that occasion so the potential is there. South Africa have brought more 6 hitters with them than usual and New Zealand come into the match off the back of smashing 6's for fun off Zimbabwe over the last couple of weeks. The absence of Taylor and Ryder is a blow for any 6's bet but in McCullum, Gutill, Williamson and the likes of Morkel, de Villiers, Duminy and Ontong there's more than enough 6 hitters on show to ensure we see 10 6's hit in this opening match.

11 Sixes. :clap

[FreelanceTips]

Re: New Zealand vs South Africa - T20 Series & ODI Series Great shout on Ontong Kev. :cheers He very nearly got the win, but the each-way was a sweet enough result at that price. I'll have to visit Bodogs more often. Many bookies don't offer the each-way option.

[Tyler]

Re: New Zealand vs South Africa - T20 Series & ODI Series Getting this one up early: - 6pts South Africa Sixes: Over 5.5 @ 5/6 [Ladbrokes] The thing I love about limited overs cricket in New Zealand is the glut of very small boundaries. The match tomorrow will be played at Seddon Park which is a haven for sixes. The last t20i that was played here saw 21 sixes. Match before? Seventeen. Accumulatively in the two matches before that saw another 20 maximums. With the potential on show tomorrow I can't help but feel there wil be more. Skybet are the only firm up with their sixes lines at the moment and they have set the over/under at 17.5 which is touch and go for me. Six sixes for South Africa is well within reach though. With Levi, Ingram, AB, Duminy, Ontong AND Botha all about I can easily see six for the visitors tomorrow to add to the seven they hit a few days ago. Overs for me.

[kevshat]

Re: New Zealand vs South Africa - T20 Series & ODI Series Cheers FT. Great shout on NZ :ok. Just one for me here. I expect 6's by the bucketload but the prices for the team 6's don't attract me and the total 6's looks about right. 4pts J-P.Duminy's Performance Pts - 32&Over 5/6 Bet365 Points are scored as follows: 1pt per run, 10pts per catch & 20pts per wicket. JP Duminy excelled with the bat in the first match much to my cost but I expect him to do that throughout the series because he's a class act with the bat and someone I've always thought was underrated. He will want to score big runs here to try and catch the eye of the test match selectors having lost his place in the longer format of the side. He can easily cover 32 runs on what is always a good batting wicket at Seddon Park and with the short boundaries he could cover it quickly. He has other strings to his bow though. He bowls tidy enough off spin and is a fantastic fielder who is often employed in the busy areas so catches are always possible for him. He covered this line with the bat in Wellington and I expect him to again here but with the other two scoring methods in play I expect him to cover this easily by whatever means necessary.

[Lahrio]

Re: New Zealand vs South Africa - T20 Series & ODI Series 5pts Martin Guptill - Top NZ Batsman @ 3.75 (Bodog) I know this is a short price, but Guptill is coming off the back of seven International half-centuries, and is in incredible form. Guptill playing at the top of the order will also help in the short format, and on this ground he will want to capitalise on the small boundaries. He has been striking the ball cleanly in the last few months so he should have no problem at all clearing these boundaries.

[Lahrio]

Re: New Zealand vs South Africa - T20 Series & ODI Series Well, he didn't get an 8th fifty, but his 47 was enough to bring in the bet. I only just noticed I had that written down as 5pts as well. :eek That was a typo, It was only a 1pt bet like almost all my top runscorer bets.

[Tyler]

Re: New Zealand vs South Africa - T20 Series & ODI Series

WIN - 6pts South Africa Sixes: Over 5.5 @ 5/6 [Ladbrokes]

Just watched the highlights on Sky Sports. Wow. Happy I benefited from getting on that early but in all honesty, it probably should've been a stronger stake. Well played Lahrio on Guptill.

[kevshat]

Re: New Zealand vs South Africa - T20 Series & ODI Series Great work chaps. Sets up Wednesday nicely :clap.

[Tyler]

Re: New Zealand vs South Africa - T20 Series & ODI Series Just went onto Ladbrokes and saw the market that I wanted up. - 8pts South Africa Sixes: Over 5.5 @ 4/6 [Ladbrokes] I'm not a greatest fan of the odds here but they were always going to be reduced after what we saw last week. I've already mentioned about the potential for six sixes in South Africa's team, what's more important is the venue for this ground. Eden Park is another rugby-turned cricket pitch which has been good for sixes in the past. There have been 7 matches at this stadium and those seven matches have produced 82 sixes. Admittedly there were two matches in '06 where there were four scores of under 130 however they were pushing five years ago. Ever since, there have been a plethora of maximums, infact the four matches since have never seen less than 12 in a match. If Levi were to fail tomorrow I still see AB, Duminy, Albie, Botha and Ontong bringing in the goods. Nothing overly scares me with the New Zealand bowling attack which helps and I don't really see any major batting collapses from either side. I'll play overs again.

[Tyler]

Re: New Zealand vs South Africa - T20 Series & ODI Series +10.28 from the t20i's. Looking to continue that with three for the 1st ODI: - 3pts New Zealand (vs. South Africa) @ 11/8 [bet365] New Zealand's record at this venue is insane. They have won seven of the last eight matches here at the Westpac with the eighth match being a no result! In my eyes they have a balanced batting order and they can take quite a few positives out of the t20 series despite it going against them. I guess their biggest area of weakness is their bowling attack. Despite that though, I've seen worse than Mills, Southee, Bracewell, Mckay and Nathan Mccullum! I think they can get at the South African top order, Smith has a few people calling for his head whilst Kallis and Amla haven't played any cricket in a while. There are a few players in that middle order fighting for a place too who will be feeling the pressure. Guptill, Nicol, Brendon, Williamson and Ryder as a top 5 with Franklin and Nathan Mccullum at 6 and 7 is a nice top order though so I'll play NZ continue their formidable record at the Westpac. - 9pts Total Sixes: Under 7.5 @ 5/6 [WillHill] Big bet. But I think it's justified. ODI's have a potent history of being low scoring affairs here. Those eight matches I mentioned above go back to 2006 with only three 1st innings scores above 200 and the average 1st innings score being 184. In those seven and a half matches though there have only been 23 sixes. That works out at a smidgen over three a match. Wickets have historically fell at regular intervals at the Westpac in ODI's and despite the plethora of big hitters on show tomorrow, I'll confidently play unders. Steyn/Tsotsobe and Morkel are handfuls for any team and I think the NZ bowling attack can get under that SAfrican top order. I f*cking hope they do anyway. - 4pts Highest 1st 15 Overs: New Zealand @ 11/10 [stanJames] I wouldn't necessarily have SA favourites for this one. Smith/Amla/Kallis favourites vs Guptill/Nicol/Brendon Mccullum. Really? Nah, not for me. Guptill is in pristine form right now with the bat. He was just short of eight straight fifties the other day and with Nicol and the explosive Mccullum in close behind I see early runs. Especially with the pace coming onto the ball from the SAf bowlers. Smith, Amla and Kallis are amazing players but not necessarily the quickest of scorers. I'll play the hosts take the early spoils.

[BobNL]

Re: New Zealand vs South Africa - T20 Series & ODI Series Good luck Tyler! The bookmakers admit you are on the right side with your 9pts bet as the WillHill odd dropped and other bookmakers have lower lines. Hopefully the batters do not overachieve.

[kevshat]

Re: New Zealand vs South Africa - T20 Series & ODI Series +3.15 after the T20's. 1 outright and 4 bets in the 1st ODI for me. 3pts M.Guptill Top New Zealand Series Batsman 5/2 BetVictor Martin Guptill has been in fantastic form for New Zealand all summer. It isn't just New Zealand he's been in good nick for he's been batting well for Auckland too. At one stage this summer Guptill made 6 consecutive half centuries which shows the form he's been in for the Black Caps. Admittedly a lot of that was against Zimbabwe but when your feet are moving and confidence is high you will score runs against any side. New Zealand are missing a real top act in Ross Taylor for this series so I believe the top bat will come from Guptill, McCullum or Ryder. With Guptill opening the batting and having the fielding restrictions to take advantage of I think at 5/2 with the form he has been in, he's the one to be on in this mini series. And now the 1st ODI. 3pts New Zealand to win 1st ODI 11/8 Bet365 This is a big price if New Zealand win the toss and put South Africa into bat. As I said in the previous T20 match here defending this ground is nigh on impossible as it's just a rugby ground. When you look down the scores on this ground you see a lot of low scoring matches but I think this will be high scoring because the wicket played really well in the T20 match here last week and the weather forecast is set fair throughout the match. The Westpac is a different ground from most because the angles of it make it not just hard to defend but very much a ground where experience of where to set the field and where to bowl is vital. That's clear from New Zealand's incredible record here. They have won their last seven matches on this ground and with South Africa's big guns coming in a bit rusty and New Zealand having Jesse Ryder to bolster their batting line up I think the Kiwis are worth a punt here. 5pts Over 5.5 6's 4/5 Skybet I think this line is too low. I know previous matches here suggest it's too high but I don't think it's high enough. We saw 11 6's hit here in the T20 on a wicket which played well and I expect to see at least 6 in this match and pushing on for double figures. There's plenty of big hitters in the two squads with New Zealand having hitters from 1-7 and even Southee right down the order who can smash it a bit. South Africa have the likes of de Villiers, Duminy and Ontong or Albie Morkel. Smith, Amla and Kallis can clear ropes too if they are short enough and the boundaries here will be short enough. This is a rugby ground and the dead straight boundaries here and mishits for most players. The square boundaries aren't a lot bigger so I believe we will see a few 6's here. Even if this isn't a high scoring match this total can still be covered. Pakistan made 124 batting first last year and there was still 4 6's in the match. Both teams bat far enough down that there are enough batting for this to be high scoring and if it is this line gets battered. 3pts M.Guptill (-0.5 runs) to beat G.Smith 5/6 Ladbrokes I've mentioned Martin Guptill's good form above and while Graeme Smith comes into the match off the back of a couple of good scores in South Africa's last ODI series with Sri Lanka he hasn't batted in these conditions prior to this match and having seen Richard Levi in the T20 series Smith is under bigtime pressure to keep on performing in order to retain his place in the side. With Smith unlikely to be around at the top level in 2015 you would think the South African selectors will ease him out at the first opportunity and that can't be easy to deal with. Mills and Southee can both hoop the ball into him so I think Smith could be on for a low score in this match. I don't see that being the case with Guptill so I'll take the Kiwi opener to beat the former South African captain in this opening match. 1pt ew N.McCullum Top New Zealand Batsman 25/1 Bodog (1/5 1,2,3) Batting at 7 I think Nathan McCullum is a big price here because over 50 overs he's likely to get a bat and when he does he generally goes well. We've seen him play the rebuilding innings in the past and we've also seen him play the wigwambam innings as well so whatever the situation he will be mightily effective. He bats well against seam and spin and can score all around the wicket and there's no reason at all why he can't run into a place down the order. If it's all gone wrong for New Zealand he's experienced enough now to pace his innings well enough to get them back into it which could well see him top scoring. Whichever role he has to play 25/1 is a bit too big and I'll take the younger McCullum to go well down the order in this 1st ODI.

[Tyler]

Re: New Zealand vs South Africa - T20 Series & ODI Series

Good luck Tyler! The bookmakers admit you are on the right side with your 9pts bet as the WillHill odd dropped and other bookmakers have lower lines. Hopefully the batters do not overachieve.

Wow. NZ posted 250+, had South Africa 35/3 and still lost? Eight sixes too? F*ck me. Appreciate the words Bob, wasn't to be.

[kevshat]

Re: New Zealand vs South Africa - T20 Series & ODI Series -0.85pts overall now after a bit of a shambles of a first ODI. I'll go with 3 in this Napier match. 4pts G.Smith Under 28.5 runs 5/6 Ladbrokes Graeme Smith hasn't had much of a hit in New Zealand and only made 9 runs in the opening ODI. Since then he's meant to have taken a bash on the arm in the nets but is still expected to play in this match. It remains to be seen just how fit he'll be but however fit he is I still think he'll need an innings to get himself going especially if Mills and Southee find some swing with the two new balls. If they do they'll have the ball moving into him but Southee has the one which can go away from Smith in his locker and that is the one which the South African opener struggles with the most. On the only previous occasion Smith has played an ODI here he made just 9 so it isn't a ground which holds good memories for him even though it's a ground which is good for the batsmen. With a lack of game time and pressure cranking up from those wanting his spot I think Smith is a good bet to be out for less than 29 in this 2nd ODI. 4pts J-P.Duminy's Performance Pts - 37&Over 5/6 Bet365 Points are scored as follows: 1pt per run, 10pts per catch & 20pts per wicket. JP Duminy has been given a bit more responsibility in this South African ODI side having been pushed up to number four and that's a role I like for him. He's astute at getting the singles and playing himself in before he starts cutting loose when the powerplays and end of the innings come around. I think Duminy is a very underrated one day batsman especially in his new position but with this performance we have two other genuine scoring methods. Duminy is usually at point in the field and a lot of the Kiwi batsmen like going for their shots on the off side so he could easily snaffle a catch or two and AB de Villiers is using his off spin a lot more at the minute too so if he can get the odd one to turn there's enough in the wicket for him to get himself a cheap wicket. Duminy bowled in the last 10 overs in Wellington so if he can do that here there's definitely a wicket in it for him. 37 is a total I think he can cover with the bat though. He did it with 46 in the opening ODI and has an ODI average of over 41 so only an average innings from him with the bat is needed to see this covered safely. The line looks too low so I'm happy to take the overs. 1pt ew J.Franklin Top New Zealand Batsman 9/1 Bodog (1/5 1,2.3) James Franklin frustrated me in Wellington as a backer of 6's because he was timing the ball brilliantly but just wouldn't play the big shot. I'm sure we'll see him open his arms a little bit more on this ground but it was the way he was hitting the ball which catches my eye here. For the rest of the New Zealand batsmen, including McCullum for much of his innings, it was a real struggle with the exception of Kane Williamson who played a lovely knock. James Franklin is a real good timer of a cricket ball and he looked in good touch in the opening ODI and after seeing him smoke 4 out of the park in an admittedly small Seddon Park in Hamilton, although two of them would've been 6's anywhere, we know he's in good touch with the willow. He was third in the first ODI and I think that's the worst he'll finish in this one. If he opens his shoulders a bit more though the top score is definitely there for him and at 9/1 I think he's a decent enough each way bet here at McLean Park.

[kevshat]

Re: New Zealand vs South Africa - T20 Series & ODI Series +0.49 after the 2nd ODI for me overall. A dead rubber and 60-70% chance of rain = no bets for me but hopefully there's some play and Guptill can go ballistic. Good luck to those who play.