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Welsh Open - 13-19 Feb

kevshat

By kevshat
in Snooker Predictions

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ThusPrider

ThusPrider

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Re: Welsh Open - 13-19 Feb Paddy power are absolutely crazy with their pricing, especially after reading kevshat's post on previous meetings etc. There is even hard arb value with a huge margin even with the cut price of 10/11 (O) vs 11/8 (U). Pity im limited to peanuts with paddypower. I remember this match well in this years masters, and Trump totally destroyed O'sullivan and gave him a taste of his own medicine. This format probably will suit both players imo. I felt like this last time, but I fancy O'sullivan to get one back at Trump after winning his first title in a while and also securing his spot in the top 16 to automatically qualify for the world championships. O'sullivan 2.01 1/10 Pinnacle

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kevshat

kevshat

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Re: Welsh Open - 13-19 Feb I think the best thing about the best of 7's from a gambling point of view is every match has been on a TV table so you aren't guessing about who is playing well as every match is watchable. I've no problem sacrificing a couple of frames if we get to see all the matches live. The rest of my QF bets. Should be a blinding day of snooker this. 4pts M.Allen vs S.Murphy - Over 7.5 frames 4/5 Paddy Power I'm not betting on the match result here as I'm already on Mark Allen outright and I think if he comes through this quarter final he will be a strong favour in the semi final regardless of who he ends up playing. Coming through this one won't be easy but you have to say the Pistol is in good form this week and he hasn't lost a frame yet despite playing two very capable players. Murphy has only lost two frames and he's been cueing well for a while so I just don't see how this isn't going to be close. Both men are no strangers to fighting hard when they are behind and both have enough about them to take the chances that come their way. Both men are pretty evenly matched really and because of that I don't see this one being won worse than 5-3 either way and I certainly wouldn't be surprised if this goes to a decider. 3pts S.Lee to beat D.Junhui 15/8 BetVictor I've seen nothing in this tournament so far to suggest Stephen Lee is a close to 2/1 shot to win this match against Ding who really should've been knocked out by Higgins in the last round. Higgins missed a match ball pink which he'd have potted 95 times out of 100. Sometimes you get a new lease of life in a tournament when that happens and that's something we have to be wary of here but Lee is playing well and has every chance in this quarter final. His record against the top players in recent years has been nothing to write home about but he beat Mark Williams at this stage in the German Masters two weeks ago and he has scored well this week which will be important. I've watched both Ding's matches so far and his safety has been nowhere near the standard it needs to be and with Lee suddenly finding a bit of belief in these ranking tournaments I think he's too big to send the China star packing this evening. 5pts S.Maguire to beat M.Selby Evs Ladbrokes 4pts S.Maguire to make highest break 10/11 Boylesports I completely agree with Western Skies here. This match has been priced up purely on reputation because on all recent form Maguire wins this every time. Maguire is playing the sort of snooker that he played back in 2004 when O'Sullivan said he would dominate the game. In fact he's probably been better than that in 2012. He was excellent in the German Masters and has played some quality stuff this week too. Mark Selby has struggled into this quarter final and where I fear for him is because he has needed 3-4 chances to win frames this week. He just isn't going to get those against Maguire the way the Scot is playing at the minute and on all form of the last 2-3 months I think Maguire will win this and win it quite easily. In Germany a couple of weeks ago he whitewashed John Higgins and Shaun Murphy and he also beat Judd Trump. I think he beats Selby here. Despite countless chances Selby has only made 2 50 breaks in the tournament so far, a highest of which is 61 whereas Maguire has made 3 centuries this week to go with the 3 centuries he made in the German Masters final against Ronnie O'Sullivan. Maguire is scoring like a dream at the minute and with everything being a struggle for Selby at present I'll take Maguire to not only win the match but to knock in the highest break too.

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ThusPrider

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Re: Welsh Open - 13-19 Feb Good game of snooker this... Though O'sullivan had a really good chance to come back and clear up to really hurt Trump, though he missed an easy red! Good pot by Trump again even for his standards to wrap the frame up, and it was comedy when he tried one of his spectacular screw shots on that red next to the pocket and completely miscued.. refree instantly said foul but he got the red in the end anyway :lol

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Aidymac

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Re: Welsh Open - 13-19 Feb I will take that Mr Ding, haha. To be honest a mobile phone did go off. But at the same time it was a dead straight green no more than 2 foot white to pocket. No excuses on missing that i'm afraid. He missed a simple red minutes before that. Ding played pure muck too and will need to up his game if he is to beat Murphy.

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ThusPrider

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Re: Welsh Open - 13-19 Feb

Paddy power are absolutely crazy with their pricing, especially after reading kevshat's post on previous meetings etc. There is even hard arb value with a huge margin even with the cut price of 10/11 (O) vs 11/8 (U). Pity im limited to peanuts with paddypower. I remember this match well in this years masters, and Trump totally destroyed O'sullivan and gave him a taste of his own medicine. This format probably will suit both players imo. I felt like this last time, but I fancy O'sullivan to get one back at Trump after winning his first title in a while and also securing his spot in the top 16 to automatically qualify for the world championships. O'sullivan 2.01 1/10 Pinnacle
One unit and a peanut in profit. That over 5.5 50+ breaks looked a complete gift by PP. Im sure it came in for you guys, I saw loads, definately more than 5 imo.
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western skies

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Re: Welsh Open - 13-19 Feb Small loss of -0.36pts for me yesterday, with the 50 breaks coming in easily but the Maguire bet failing. There was always a danger that Selby would up his game at some point, but Maguire should probably have won the match in any case, so it's a bit frustrating not to be looking at a decent profit. In the end, Selby's superior tactical game saw him through in the last 3 frames when Maguire really ought to have won two of them. As for the finish in the Ding v Lee match, there's just no excuse for a spectator to have their phone on during play (and the timing of the alarm going off just seems too crucial to have been accidental), but I do agree with Aidy as well. You couldn't have asked for a simpler pot than that green and I think a player with a bit more mental toughness than Lee would have potted it in spite of the distraction. Nevertheless, it shouldn't have happened, so I've got some sympathy for the big man as well and it's certainly a pleasure to see him back in the top 16 this season - one of my favourite players to watch when he's in the groove. As for today, I'm in two minds about both of these matches and wasn't going to have a bet at all until I saw this, 3pts - D Junhui v S Murphy - over 9.5 frames @ evens with Paddy Power Once again, Paddys are the stand out price on this and with the semis now being the best of 11, I think evens is a very good price for this match to go no worse than 6-4 either way. Both players have shown glimpses of their best form so far this week, but both have also struggled when the pressure has been on. Even in his 4-0 whitewash of Steve Davis, Shaun needed 2 or 3 chances per frame and it was only Davis' generosity that made the result so comfortable. As soon as either player has come up against an evenly matched opponent (Higgins and Lee in Ding's case, and Allen in Murphy's) the match has gone to a deciding frame, which further indicates that whilst they are both playing some solid snooker, neither is really showing the form to run away from the other over 11 frames. I wouldn't be surprised to see another final frame scrap here and I think evens is a decent value shot for 6-4 or tighter.

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kevshat

kevshat

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Re: Welsh Open - 13-19 Feb I'm leaving the first semi final alone I think. Don't think this is going to be my week somehow. Rotten luck in almost every deciding frame and even when I'm about to win a bet in one a phone goes up and puts the player I'm on off :eyes. For anyone who wants an opinion on the first semi I strongly fancy Murphy on what we've seen this week but I'm not going to take the snooker gods and the mobile phone on again :lol.

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Aidymac

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Re: Welsh Open - 13-19 Feb Pure fluke to be quite frank Kevshat, he is blessed to be in the final, should have been beat by Higgins, Lee misses a simple green to lose out (not helped by the mobile phone), and today's match he did not deserve to win 6-2 either. He got all the luck on his side, and i will thank my lucky stars if he win's. Cheers Kev

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