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kevshat

Welsh Open - 13-19 Feb

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Although the tournament doesn't start until Monday and I don't expect too much in the thread until the qualifiers are decided on Saturday I'll open the thread now in case anyone has any early thoughts on the event. The tournament will be broadcast live on BBC2 Wales (Sky 991) and on Eurosport all week and up until the QF's it is a best of 7 frame event going up to best of 9 for the QF's, best of 11 for the SF's and a best of 17 frame final. John Higgins defends the title he won last year. Draw can be found here: http://www.worldsnooker.com/staticFiles/b4/99/0,,13165~170420,00.pdf

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Re: Welsh Open - 13-19 Feb Right the draw has been made and I'm taking two outrights for the tournament. 1.5pts ew M.Allen to win Welsh Open 18/1 Bet365 (1/2 1,2) Mark Allen comes into this tournament in really decent form. He impressed me greatly in the UK Championship where his battling qualities were there for all to see. With that in mind I was disappointed with him in the Masters when he claimed Robertson bored him in their opening match. That's a slight concern this week as they could meet in the second round but at least it would only be over the best of seven frames were that to be the case. His attitude was a lot better in the Championship League last week though. I never really took much notice of the Championship League as a form guide but it's become a lot more serious this year with the Premier League spot at the end of it so that's a decent effort from Allen especially as he won one of the groups. Not only has he been winning matches but he's been keeping his cue arm well oiled which will give him an advantage over the rest of the top 16 bar those who were at Crondon Park. There isn't really a weak area of the draw this week but I would say the top half of the draw is slightly more the place to be and Allen has that to his advantage. With his form and temperament good I think the 18/1 on the Northern Irishman could look a big price towards the end of the week. 1pt ew B.Hawkins to win Welsh Open 66/1 Bet365 (1/2 1,2) 1pt B.Hawkins to win 4th Quarter 14/1 Bet365 Barry Hawkins could hardly be coming into this tournament in better form. He won the Shootout a couple of weeks ago and since then has been to Crondon Park and won a group of the Championship League which is no mean effort with the standard of snooker and the calibre of player who has entered that tournament this season. Hawkins also went to Germany in the middle of that and pushed Shaun Murphy as close as anyone did until Maguire blitzed the Magician in the semi final. Having needed to qualify for this event Hawkins did so with a 4-2 win over Gerard Greene on Saturday night in a match he hit a couple of tons in. Hawkins is scoring exceedingly well right now and although his draw is tough I don't think it's that tough that he should be this price. He would probably have to beat Stephen Maguire in the second round and maybe Mark Selby in the quarter final but the way he'll be feeling with his game right now he will feel as though he can beat anyone. At 66/1 I think he's well worth an each way punt with qualifiers fairly well known for going a long way in this tournament given it's short early nature and how close qualifying is to the event itself.

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Re: Welsh Open - 13-19 Feb Stephen Maguire @ 14/1 skybet Stephen Maguire has been playing fantastically, saw him completly annihilate Murphy in the German masters, was a masterclass of punishing snooker. Does have a tendency to bottle it in finals but I expect him t be fired up Martin Gould @ 50/1 ladbrokes Overpriced for me, proven he can dispatch anyone in the game, full of confidence this season, proven event winner.

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Re: Welsh Open - 13-19 Feb

Sport Snooker/Pool
Event Welsh Open
Selection Ding Junhui (Each-way)
Strength 3/10
Date 13/02/2012
Bookmaker/Price Boylesports @ 17.00
Reasoning I am taking a plump on China's most successful ever snooker player. He is overpriced in my opinion, his game is as good as any. He has made over 200 centuries. He has a poor record in the Welsh Open, but he has won the UK Championship twice and has won the China Open. People forget that he is still only 24, so we have not seen the best of this man yet. For a man with 221 centuries and 4 x 147's, and 3 major titles, he is a big price @ 16/1 i feel.

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Re: Welsh Open - 13-19 Feb I am really looking forward to this tournament, hopefully it will be as profitable for everyone as the German Masters was. I like the look of a couple to get me started. Just the 2 as I have managed to talk myself out of taking Stephen Lee in some shape or form. Outright Winner: 1/10pts E/W Stephen Maguire to win the Welsh Open - 14/1 with SkyBet (1/2 odds 1-2) Stephen Maguire has been playing some really good Snooker for a while now and it almost rewarded him with a tournament win in Germany where he should really have beaten Ronnie O'Sullivan in the final. He beat John Higgins and Judd Trump on his way to finishing as runner-up so nothing should faze him no matter what happens this week. In Germany he showed an improved safety game and his break building was top notch the majority of the time. I said at the time that Maguire is the type of player you should take advantage of when he's on form as, when in the mood, he's up there with the best. His mentality isn't always the greatest but when the signs are there that he is fully focussed it should be taken as a strong hint that he will go well. As far as the draw is concerned, it isn't the worst. He has a nice first round match to get him started and neither Hawkins or Stevens would worry me if Maguire picks up where he left off in Germany. Selby is in his quarter but, despite his obvious talent, the Jester isn't the force he should be with his skill set so he has every chance of making the semi's. Maguire should put on a good show here and I think he is well worth taking to pick up the winner's cheque. 1/10pts E/W Neil Robertson to win the Welsh Open - 9/1 with Bet365 (1/2 odds 1-2) The man from Down Under is in the 'nicer' side of the draw on paper so at this price I think it is well worth having a little involvement. He could have had an easier first round tie to get through but, although Stephen Hendry could potentially be a bit tricky to overcome, the Scotsman is nowhere near his best and lacking in any recent form that makes me believe he will come here fully wound up from the start. Robertson's match experience in recent months should see him get through that tie. Then, he will have to face Mark Allen in all probability. Allen criticised Robertson not so long ago so there could be a bit of hype surrounding that match should it happen, but I would favour the Aussie simply because he is a more consistent player and has the better all round game. Shaun Murphy is also in his quarter but he is another who, although making the semi's in Germany, is a little up and down at the moment and his positional play when in the balls lately doesn't fill me with a great deal of confidence. He has John Higgins in his half, as well as Stephen Lee, but I wouldn't be too keen to back either against the Australian. Should he make the semi's, he has a good enough temperament and enough tournament experience to be able to go on and win the tournament. He is usually good for getting to the latter stages of tournament's so I think 9/1 is a little too generous. (EDIT: ADDED E/W TERMS TO ROBERTSON BET)

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Re: Welsh Open - 13-19 Feb First round match odds:

Monday 13 February 2012 Player 1 Player 2 BPP
maximize.gif Ding, Junhui v Davis, M (11:00 GMT) 1.44 2.87 104.01 %
maximize.gif Carter, A v Davis, S (13:00 GMT) 1.5 2.96 100.45 %
maximize.gif Trump, J v O'Brien, F (13:00 GMT) 1.2 5.5 101.52 %
maximize.gif Dott, G v Ford, T (14:00 GMT) 1.54 2.75 101.30 %
maximize.gif Murphy, S v Joyce, M (14:00 GMT) 1.25 4.8 100.83 %
maximize.gif Higgins, J v Wenbo, L (19:00 GMT) 1.36 3.5 102.10 %
Tuesday 14 February 2012 Player 1 Player 2 BPP
maximize.gif Williams, M v Hicks, A (13:00 GMT) 1.17 5.5 103.65 %
maximize.gif Bingham, S v King, M (14:00 GMT) 1.61 2.5 101.90 %
maximize.gif Robertson, N v Hendry, S (14:00 GMT) 1.44 3.05 102.02 %
maximize.gif Gould, M v Ebdon, P (19:00 GMT) 1.61 2.5 101.90 %
Wednesday 15 February 2012 Player 1 Player 2 BPP
maximize.gif Allen, M v Doherty, K (13:00 GMT) 1.3 3.75 103.59 %
maximize.gif O'Sullivan, R v Fu, M (13:00 GMT) 1.33 3.75 101.85 %
maximize.gif Maguire, S v Wicheard, A (14:00 GMT) 1.17 5.5 103.65 %
maximize.gif Stevens, M v Hawkins, B (14:00 GMT) 1.66 2.26 104.25 %

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Re: Welsh Open - 13-19 Feb 2 early match bets for me tomorrow. Likely to have a couple more which I'll come back with later in the day. 4pts M.Davis to beat D.Junhui 15/8 Paddy Power Mark Davis looks a big price to me here. Ding comes into this tournament in awful form in recent tournaments and in truth apart from the Premier League he's offered nothing even close to matching his talent all season. He lost in the opening round of The Masters just after Xmas and then last week he hit a new low when he lost to the completely unknown Yu Delu. This week is a massive week for Mark Davis. At the end of this tournament the rankings will be cut again and those inside the top 16 will qualify automatically for the China Open and the World Championship. Mark Davis comes into the week ranked 17 in the world so a big win for him and a poor one for Stuart Bingham will see Davis into the top 16 and automatically qualified for the Crucible. Davis has performed very well in the PTC tournaments this season which could be vital here because these matches are the same distance as the matches in those events. Mark Davis will have been disappointed to lose in the German Masters first round but he lost to John Higgins and while Higgins isn't playing lights out snooker there's still no harm in that. These two met in the opening round of the UK Championship and Ding needed an outrageous fluke on the pink to win in a deciding frame. I'm not expecting him to be as lucky in this match and so I'll take Mark Davis to begin a massively important week for him with an opening round win. 4pts M.Holt to beat R.Day 5/4 Boylesports Michael Holt is another who is playing very well in the PTC tournaments this season. He won PTC10, beating John Higgins in the semi final along the way and made the quarter finals of both PTC11 and PTC12 so he comes into this tournament with some solid form behind him. The same can't really be said about Ryan Day who but for one quarter final in the PTC series is having a poor series. Someone with his talent and his scoring ability when he's on top of his game shouldn't be getting to this stage of the season without going past the last 32 in a full ranking tournament. That's the case however and highlights just how out of form he is and were it not for the fact that he's Welsh and so because of that this qualifying match has been delayed to the venue, he might not even be here. With the form that Holt is in right now and the fact that the best of 7 frame format seemingly perfect for him I'll take him to make it into the main draw from this match despite the possibility of Day raising his game for his home event. I just don't think he's going to raise his game enough to match how Holt is playing at the minute so it's the Englishman for me here.

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Re: Welsh Open - 13-19 Feb +1 from those two after Davis was the square root of useless. He seems destined to never make the top 16! One from this afternoon's four matches. 4pts T.Ford (+1.5 frames) to beat G.Dott Evs Boylesports I think Tom Ford is a decent price to at least force a deciding frame in this match. He's playing some good snooker at the minute and when he won PTC 11 he walloped Dott 4-0 in the semi final. Since then he's gone from strength to strength. He qualified for the German Masters where he should really have put Mark Allen away, losing 5-4 from 4-2 up, but he's qualified for the World Open in a couple of weeks and as I know to my cost he made it to the semi finals of the Shootout where Dott gained his revenge but even then Ford had the chance to clear up and beat him but missed an awkward black off it's spot. Graeme Dott has been in really good form all season so this should be a cracking match but I don't think he will have it his own way here. I think the best of 7 distance is perfect for Tom Ford and if he can get off to a quick start I see him forcing a decider in this match at least if not actually going on to win it.

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Re: Welsh Open - 13-19 Feb +5 now with one to come tonight. 3pts D.Dale (-1.5 frames) to beat S.Baird 11/10 Betfred I quite like Dominic Dale to win and win well tonight. He's not someone who gets giddy when he plays in front of his own people and if anything he embraces it and it will make him even tougher to beat. Dale arrives here in good form too. He made the final of PTC 11 where he lost to Michael Holt but he played well in the event and beat Shaun Murphy and Stephen Lee along the way. Since then he's been to the final of a Championship League group last week and that should have set him up perfectly to at least win this final qualifying match. Sam Baird is another who has hit form at the right time. He qualified for the World Open which comes up later in the month and now he's beaten Nigel Bond to make it into this final qualifying round. He scored quite well against Bond and held his nerve to win a deciding frame. Dominic Dale has been keeping better company in the last week and I think the confidence he will have in his game at the minute will make him very tough to beat tonight. I'll take him to win this no worse than 4-2 and set up a first round match with Mark Selby later in the week.

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Re: Welsh Open - 13-19 Feb

R1.5pts ew M.Allen to win Welsh Open 18/1 Bet365 (1/2 1' date=2)
Followed you on this one Kev, However i noticed on Allens twitter this morning that he has an infected finger...is that likely to effect him much?

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Re: Welsh Open - 13-19 Feb Stephen Lee Vs Michael Holt - 3pts M.Holt (+1.5) 4/5 BetVictor Lee has been playing very well of late, but I feel most of his form has been his frame building. He still gives his opponent alot of chances, and you're rarely going to see Lee spank someone to nil. Holt was excellent in his previous game, and will be buzzing for this. It's a big game for him and he knows if he could advance he could go deep here. I fancy him to get atleast the 2 frames here. Stuart Bingham Vs Mark King - 3pts S.Bingham 8/13 SkyBet Bingham playing well as of late. I watched him in the Masters and he done pretty well against a bang in-form Trump. It was very unlucky for him to draw Trump so early. He looked sharp in the first round of the shootout also and if he can continue that break building I feel he can get an early advantage here and see himself through. King I haven't seen do nothing as of late. Out in R1 of the shootout and woeful in the Champions league losing 5 out of 6 of his matches. Bingham should be too strong.

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Re: Welsh Open - 13-19 Feb

Fader' date=' it's best of 7, so 3 frames required to cover a +1.5 handicap :ok[/quote'] Thanks mate. I'll stick with the bet without editing, but that should be *to get the 3 frames* : )

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Re: Welsh Open - 13-19 Feb

Followed you on this one Kev, However i noticed on Allens twitter this morning that he has an infected finger...is that likely to effect him much?
It could do mate, yep. Apparently he can't play power shots with it. He's a battler though so hopefully he can come past Doherty and then it sorts itself out. He has a bit of previous with Doherty so he will be giving it everything that's for sure. +2 for me after an up and down day. I'll take two this afternoon. 4pts M.Holt to beat S.Lee 5/4 Boylesports Stephen Lee won me a few quid in Germany last week but I think he's decent value to be taken on here. Michael Holt played some really good snooker in beating Ryan Day in their qualifying match which was held over to the venue on Monday. Admittedly Day looks a shadow of his old self at the minute but Holt barely missed a ball and deservedly won 4-0. He exuded confidence around the table in that match and that's no surprise because it wasn't long ago that Michael Holt won a PTC tournament over this distance, a tournament he beat John Higgins in along the way. Stephen Lee played some lovely snooker in Germany last week where he made the semi finals and to be fair to him with an ounce more luck he could have pegged Ronnie back in that semi final but he made two serious miscues in that match and as such he has a new tip on his cue this week. It remains to be seen whether that's a good thing but I've seen him say he hasn't practiced with it a lot and if he takes a frame or so to get used to his new tip Holty could be away and gone. Given how well Holt played yesterday I think the 5/4 on the Nottingham man is a bit of value here. 4pts N.Robertson (-1.5 frames) to beat S.Hendry 10/11 Skybet I really like Neil Robertson in this match. I'd love Stephen Hendry to go deep in a tournament soon so that we can see the best of him again but for me his game isn't good enough to compete with the top 5-6 players in the game any longer and Neil Robertson is very much one of those. The Masters champion has been enjoying a superb season and I expect at least one more title out of him before the season is done. He's dishing up really well when the opportunities arrive and he's scaled down the risky pots he takes on and replaced them with good safety. Stephen Hendry's long game is a complete mess these days. I've watched a lot of his matches this season with him usually on the streaming tables in the qualifying tournaments and I can't remember him potting a long ball and that doesn't bode well against someone like Robertson who can keep him at distance and who is such a good player is unlikely to leave Hendry in at short range often enough for Hendry to win. Hendry beat Kurt Maflin in the final qualifying round to make it to this stage and although he won 4-0 it was a real struggle. I can't see Hendry winning 3 frames here so I'll take Robertson to win this and win it no worse than 4-2.

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Re: Welsh Open - 13-19 Feb Good calls on Holt and Ford, Kev. :ok I find 7 frame matches very hard to call, so I'm not a huge fan of this format and will probably hang fire until the quarter final stages when the best of 9s kick in. That said, I quite like the look of Sam Baird on the handicap against Selby tonight. I've heard a lot of good things about Baird, and he was very impressive in his TV debut against Dale yesterday, knocking in a total clearance of 136 on his way to victory. Unfortunately, the +2.5 is a best priced 5/6 with Sportingbet, who won't be seeing any of my money until they drop their deposit fees, so will probably give this one a miss

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Re: Welsh Open - 13-19 Feb -1.15 pts Martin Gould Vs Peter Ebdon - 5pts P.Ebdon(+1.5) 4/6 Bet365 I like the looks of Ebdon here. He has quietly picked up some form in my opinion. Champions league group 4 in late Jan he beat the likes of Lee (3-2), Allen (3-0) & Matthew Stevens (3-0) before losing in the semi final to a well in-form Mark Davis who went on to win that group. In group 5 only last week he again got to the semi finals beating Selby (3-1) and losing out to Dale 3-2 who he beat only a frame previous. He played Gould only a few months back in a similar format and that finished tight - 4-3 to Gould. They also played eachother in R1 of the shootout and lost out 62-46 and could count himself unlucky in that. I will go for it to be a close one on the handicap, but wouldn't be surprised atall to see an Ebdon win.

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Re: Welsh Open - 13-19 Feb 2nd round prices.

maximize.gif Higgins, J v Ding, Junhui (19:00 GMT) 1.82 2.2 100.40 %
maximize.gif Murphy, S v Davis, S (19:00 GMT) 1.3 4.2 100.73 %
Thursday 16 February 2012 Player 1 Player 2 BPP
maximize.gif Lee, S v Ford, T (13:00 GMT) 1.68 2.37 101.63 %
maximize.gif Williams, M v O'Sullivan, R (13:00 GMT) 2.5 1.57 103.64 %
maximize.gif Allen, M v Hendry, S (14:00 GMT) 1.53 2.62 103.31 %
maximize.gif Maguire, S v Stevens, M (14:00 GMT) 1.66 2.5 100.00 %
maximize.gif Bingham, S v Trump, J (19:00 GMT) 3.6 1.37 100.77 %
maximize.gif Gould, M v Selby, M (19:00 GMT) 2.75 1.56 100.47 %

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Re: Welsh Open - 13-19 Feb -11 for me this week so far after Hawkins lost a deciding frame. With the form Maguire showed again though the chances of beating him were probably longer than they might have been so c'est la vie. Mark Allen's dodgy finger didn't seem to hamper him much though which is good as that top half is wide open. One for tonight. 4pts D.Junhui to beat J.Higgins 6/5 Skybet I'll take Ding in this match. It's fair to say neither of these players have played to anything close to their potential this season but at least Ding showed in the first round that he might be coming into something resembling his usual form when he saw off Mark Davis. He won that match 4-0 with a couple of decent breaks and never really needed to come out first gear. He will have to work a bit harder for his chances tonight but perhaps not as hard as he usually would against Higgins as the defending champion is missing a lot of easy balls at the minute. If Higgins was playing someone better than Liang Wenbo the other night he would probably have lost with the amount of balls he missed and chances he gave up. Certainly if he gives that many chances tonight Ding will take advantage. It looks to me like Higgins might be struggling with motivation problems. He's mentioned in interviews how it's getting harder and harder to motivate himself to go to the club and practice and he's on about getting a table fitted in his house to make sure he practices. His form certainly resembles someone who isn't putting the work in and if that's the case and it continues tonight then I expect Ding to win this and secure himself a QF spot.

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Re: Welsh Open - 13-19 Feb Well done Kevshat, Ding showed great courage to come back after losing 3 frames in a row. He is playing very good snooker, and has a good chance to go all the way (hopefully)... Williams/O' Sullivan should be a cracker today

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Re: Welsh Open - 13-19 Feb Cheers Aidy. Not sure about him having courage, he was lucky Higgins missed match ball pink but I shan't complain about a bit of good luck. One for tonight. Will be glad when we go to best of 9's tomorrow. 4pts M.Gould to beat M.Selby 17/10 Bodog I think Martin Gould is a good price tonight. Mark Selby was awful in his opening match against Sam Baird and really and truly should be out. We've seen in recent tournaments how a life line like that can inspire a player to relax and go on and even win the tournament but Mark Selby hasn't really done anything since he won the Shanghai Masters in September to suggest his form is likely to improve by that much. Martin Gould loves these best of 7 frame formats. He has gone really well in the PTC events over the last couple of years. He was runner up in the Grand Finals of them last year and he started this Welsh Open in confident frame against Peter Ebdon in the opening round. Having beaten one grinder there's no reason why he can't play a similarly styled Selby and beat him here. Confidence is never a thing Gould suffers from a shortage of and if Selby gives him the chances he gave to Baird I've no doubt Gould will win this. Over the best of 7 frames I think Gould's gung ho approach works and I like him to set up a quarter final with Maguire tomorrow with a win here.

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Re: Welsh Open - 13-19 Feb Gould was crap there. Apologies to anyone who followed that. -10.2 going into the quarter finals where I'll jump on one early on. 5pts R.O'Sullivan vs J.Trump - Over 5.5 50+ breaks Evs Paddy Power No idea where this price is from. Skybet offer 8/15 on the same line. Maybe Paddy Power priced it up with the best of seven frames in mind but of course we're up to best of nine now and there's just no way I see this line not being covered. These two are scoring really well this week. They've had four tons between them in the 16 frames they've won and Ronnie had a 96 in another frame too. All of their matches feature high breaks. In the Masters when Judd won 6-2 I was there that day and the balls were constantly open and we saw a 140 and a 141 because of it. In Antwerp in a PTC tournament these two met in the greatest match I've ever seen when Judd won 4-3 and there were 4 60's and 2 tons in that match. I would be very surprised if we don't see at least 8 frames here and when we saw 8 frames in the Masters clash between the two there were 7 50+ breaks in that match too. You'd have to say Ronnie is playing better now as well so I can't see there being fewer than 6 50's in this match. I'd like to say Ronnie will win this match but Judd's got the wood on him. I don't really want to be supporting either as I hope it's the classic it could be. If it is we'll see 6 50 breaks and snooker will be the winner.

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Re: Welsh Open - 13-19 Feb I won't be betting on snooker anymore in this format. The best of 7 is too short and it is no better than the PTC events. I have a lot of time for Barry Hearn but this shortening of matches does the game no favours - in my opinion. He should realize that most genuine snooker fans (and gamblers!) prefer the longer format. God forbid that he tampers with the worlds!

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