Denman Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Re: Liverpool v Spurs > Mon 6th feb Liverpool odds shortening, got to be a clear lay at evens now surely. Tottenham may be missing a few players but all their three most important players in my opinion in King, Modric & Bale should all be playing. Tottenham have played at much superior level to Liverpool that season and I can only think that Liverpool's recent form and return of Suarez has influenced the odds here. Don't forgot Tottenham went to Man City and only narrowly loss in a game they could have easily won. Overall in my view there's more than a 50% chance that Tottenham get at least a point from this game and therefore backing Tottenham (+0.5) at Evens with Bet 365 is my pick for this game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
impressivegol Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Re: Liverpool v Spurs > Mon 6th feb I'll keep it short and simple...Tottenham +0.5 shouldn't be priced as high as evens unless they're away to a top four side, and I don't think Liverpool has been a top four side for some time now. I'd like to wait for lineups...but there really can't be enough of a surprise in the squads for me to neglect this price on Spurs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Petersson1984 Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Re: Liverpool v Spurs > Mon 6th feb According to 365stat Tottenham conceded 116 corners in 23 matches. That gives a avarage of 5,0 corners against pr match. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slizorn Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Re: Liverpool v Spurs > Mon 6th feb According to 365stat Tottenham conceded 116 corners in 23 matches. That gives a avarage of 5' date='0 corners against pr match.[/quote'] Surely, only away games should be relevant for this fixture. Teams in general always get more corners when playing at home than away. That average statistic should be irrelevant, at least that is how I see it. Good luck with your bets :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soundingstylish Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Re: Liverpool v Spurs > Mon 6th feb Younes Kaboul is out for Tottenham. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThusPrider Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Re: Liverpool v Spurs > Mon 6th feb Injuries are looking bleak for Tottenham, and looks to be set to miss a couple of their important players looking at the odds and the shortening of Liverpool and the drifting of Tottenham. Liverpools near full strength squad with Suarez and Gerrard will definately have vocal support from Anfield after progressing successfully in cup competitions and knocking out both Manchester clubs as well as a Wembley Final to look forward to. With marginally bigger home advantage than normal imo, EVS-13/5-10/3 look to be very fair odds. Both teams at full strength and playing well of course Tottenham will be the favourites playing at a neutral ground, though of course Tottenham are far from their full strength squad, though they have been playing much better than Liverpool. I detest some of the fringe players that could be drafted into the starting eleven. Rose and Livermore is another couple of English players who are overrated. Walker who was once a fringe player seems to have settled in with the first team, though ridiculously went on to get England caps just because he scored a decent goal against Arsenal. Though these kids Harry has got playing well, they are still very raw and completely naive for when things go wrong, as with past seasons spurs have crumbled against the big four. Surely there are better right backs to call in upon? Micah Richards for a start has largely been forgotten by Capello. Back on topic despite all this, Liverpools full strength squad I only rate to be marginally stronger than that of Tottenham with injuries, though I detest some of Tottenhams fringe players, who will at least be on the bench with slight chance of starting, depending on the precise injury news pre kick off. However, Tottenham have been more consistant this season and Liverpool may not treat Tottenham as seriously as the Manchester clubs, though they will still be committed to the game as always though I dont think they can give the extra 10% they can give against the Manchester clubs. Trying to take everything into consideration to find the best possible value, I feel the drift is marginally overexaggerated with perhaps 1% margin on Tottenham purely on fluctuations. Tottenham +0.5 1.990 (fluctuating) Pinnacle 10/10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Petersson1984 Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Re: Liverpool v Spurs > Mon 6th feb Surely, only away games should be relevant for this fixture. Teams in general always get more corners when playing at home than away. That average statistic should be irrelevant, at least that is how I see it. Good luck with your bets :ok Do you know any sites that got home and away corner stats? I dont. The avarage is properly the best we got and if, as you say, the get less away, then its a plus for the under bet. :) Good luck to you too mate :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
borored Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Re: Liverpool v Spurs > Mon 6th feb Do you know any sites that got home and away corner stats? I dont. The avarage is properly the best we got and if, as you say, the get less away, then its a plus for the under bet. :) Good luck to you too mate :) Liverpool have avg 11 corners in last 10 home games Spurs have avg 6.8 corners in last 10 away Liverpool avg 3.1 corners against Spurs avg 5.9 against I think the low corner count against Liverpool is due to the fact that a lot of teams don't go to Anfield and attack. I think Spurs main threat tonight is down the wings. Should be a fair few corners. Liverpool have never had less than 8 corners in the last 10 games at Anfield. Liverpool 7 or more corners is a tasty 13/10 with pp Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CiderHead Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Re: Liverpool v Spurs > Mon 6th feb Struggled to find an angle for this game but think I've got one I like. Spurs have scored in ten out of there eleven away games and only kept two clean sheets. Liverpool have scored in nine out of there eleven home games and have kept just three clean sheets. Both teams have scored in 72.7% of Liverpool's home games and the same for Spurs' away games. With Suarez returning for Liverpool this increases there firepower. I half expect one of Defoe, Adebayor and Van Der Vaart to feature as you can never fully believe what a manager says. Even without them they still have players capable of hurting Liverpool. BTTS 1.75 (5/10) Bet365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jase82 Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Re: Liverpool v Spurs > Mon 6th feb Do you know any sites that got home and away corner stats? I dont. The avarage is properly the best we got and if, as you say, the get less away, then its a plus for the under bet. :) Good luck to you too mate :) Try http://www.simplesoccerstats.com/Console1.html or football-data.co.uk Personally I don't go by averages too much because they don't tell you the higher end, or the lower end, or the circumstances under which high/low corner stats were achieved. As has been pointed out earlier, there were only five corners in the reverse fixture, probably because Spurs largely dominated and Liverpool were down to ten men after half an hour. Information like that is invisible to average corner counts. It's punting with half the available information, which doesn't make sense to me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrMal Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Re: Liverpool v Spurs > Mon 6th feb I am struggling to find a decent bet in this game - reckon either side could win and it could be either Under or Over 2.5. So a different angle; referee, Michael Oliver has awarded 5 penalties during his last 5 Premiership performances (including one for Liverpool this season). There have been 4 pens in the last 5 games between the 2 sides. A penalty to be awarded is available at 3/1 with Hills. Just to add to this, the assistant P.Kirkup has also been involved in matches that involved penalties, out of his last 5 EPL matches, 5 penalties have been awarded. The other assistant M.Mullarkey's last 5 EPL matches had 3 penalties awarded. Both these assistants tend to do games together, barring the last ManU v Stoke game where Kirkup officiated on the sidelines - 2 penalties awarded in that game. To have both of these involved tonight only adds to this bet. The main man is in the middle of the park but can be influenced by their involvement. Will also try Penalty awarded @ 2.87 (5/10) with PP but will also put smaller stakes on Penalty Scored @ 3.75 (2/10) with PP Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chambta Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Re: Liverpool v Spurs > Mon 6th feb Liverpool are too short surely? Failed to win 7/11 home league games, regardless of the fact they are unbeaten. Spurs +0.5 on the A/H has to be the call. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maliniok Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Re: Liverpool v Spurs > Mon 6th feb Teams: Liverpool:Reina, Johnson, Kelly, Agger, Skrtel, Spearing, Kuyt, Gerrard, Adam, Carroll, Bellamy. Subs: Doni, Suarez, Hendo, Coates, Downing, Carra, Aurelio Spurs:Friedel; Walker, Dawson, King, Assou-Ekotto; Livermore, Parker; Kranjcar, Modric, Bale; Adebayor. Subs: Cudicini, Bongani, Nelsen, Rose, Luongo, Lancaster, Saha Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kiddo112 Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Re: Liverpool v Spurs > Mon 6th feb According to soccerway Liverpool average 8.57 corners, and Spurs 7.13. At home to the big teams, Liverpool's record: v Man Utd (PL) 8-3 v Man City (PL) 8-5 v Newcastle (PL) 7-0 v Man City (CC) 12-2 v Man Utd (FAC) 5-1 away to big teams, Spurs record: v Man Utd (PL) 11-3 v Man City (PL) 9-4 In the FA Cup game at Anfield, Liverpool started with Carroll up front, and Maxi and Kuyt playing off. None of these possess much pace, and so Man Utd played with a high defensive line. As a result Liverpool weren't able to pen them in as much as they normally do at home. Interesting this changed when Bellamy was introduced, as the Utd defence dropped deeper, wary of his pace and threat from Carroll's flick-ons. I wouldn't read that much into the reverse fixture at WHL as Liverpool were down to 10 men after 28 mins. Depending how the teams line-up later on, I think it may be worth taking either Liverpool -2 on the corner handicap @2.1 with Betfred, or over 6.5 home corners @1.91 with William Hill. No Enrique for Liverpool, Kelly plays. Which I expect means that Johnson will switch to the left. Don;t think this is good for corners as Kelly has been shakey enough of late and I think Johnson on the right, & Enrique would of offered more going forward. It puts just enough doubt in my mind to swerve the corners on this occasion. GL to all who have played. No Downing either of course. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeit34 Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Re: Liverpool v Spurs > Mon 6th feb Have been thinking about this game quite a bit today mainly wondering why Spurs are 3's?? Couldn't come up with anything except for Liverpool having Gerrard and Suarez available. So on that im going to take tottenham @3/1 which to me is value as I would price this game more like 1(6/4) X(23/10) 2(7/4). Both teams in good form and if playing their best football this will be an exciting game and glad bet365 are offering free in play bet as it could go either way. But the value lies on the 3/1 with tottenham initially. I know there are injuries and players out but after seing starting lineups i dont think spurs will lose. Also Suarez on the bench and adam up front to start? Dont like Adam in this position at all. GL :cigar Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeit34 Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Re: Liverpool v Spurs > Mon 6th feb what crazy high odd in play bets are people thinking off? those that used bet365 :cigar Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sportxtipster Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Re: Liverpool v Spurs > Mon 6th feb I whent for under 9,5 corners. (3,40) Ladbrokes They do avarage quite a few but mostly against smaller teams. The fact that they conceed few corners, made me back under 9,5. Liverpool avarage only 3,9 corners against pr game, while spurs is 5,0 not 6,4 as you wrote. The meeting at White Hart Lane, only got 5 corners. If Van Der Vaart, Adebayor, Lennon and Defoe are absent its just a plus for the bet. The way the match started seems I lost my bet ... but I still hope ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sportxtipster Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Re: Liverpool v Spurs > Mon 6th feb crazy referee! Liverpool won a corner in the last minute of the first half and blown for the half time. In the end we had 11 corners. With that one would have been a winner also the other bet! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sportxtipster Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Re: Liverpool v Spurs > Mon 6th feb Liverpool vs Tottenham Liverpool played 11 matches home and 8 have been under 2.5 goals. Tottenham played also 11 games away, but 8 have been over 2.5 goals. Liverpool main concern was to have a great defensive play and we can see also from their stats home: 7 draws and just 4 win. Tottenham has been an attacking team this season, but in the last matches we can see that they have problems scoring a lot. With 3 attacking men like Gerrard, Suarez and Caroll, Liverpool should be the dominant team tonight. But I do not think will see goals. But none of these 3 guys have scored that match so only the name will make no difference on the score sheet. Tottenham without Adebayor, Van der Vaart, Lennon and Defoe, only Saha confirmed, might have trouble also in scoring. For sure will see some of these players on the pitch tonight. I think that under 2.5 goals is the best option for this one! under 2.5 goals @ 1.91 with 188bet At least this was a winner! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kiddo112 Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Re: Liverpool v Spurs > Mon 6th feb No Enrique for Liverpool' date=' Kelly plays. Which I expect means that Johnson will switch to the left. Don;t think this is good for corners as Kelly has been shakey enough of late and I think Johnson on the right, & Enrique would of offered more going forward. It puts just enough doubt in my mind to swerve the corners on this occasion. GL to all who have played. No Downing either of course.[/quote'] FT 7-4 Both bets would of won. Oh well, I'd rather not win than to place the bet with doubts in my mind and be kicking myself if it lost. Backed the draw with the B365 Inplay offer anyways so I'll get over it :p Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Re: Liverpool v Spurs > Mon 6th feb Depending how the teams line-up later on' date=' I think it may be worth taking either Liverpool -2 on the corner handicap @2.1 with Betfred, or over 6.5 home corners @1.91 with William Hill.[/quote'] I know you said these bets would have won, because the final corner count was 7-4. But the corner count is normally related to events in the game. At half time, the corner count was 1-3. Then as the second half wore on, Liverpool put more and more energy into attack and Spurs defended. If either side had scored, the corner count might well have been quite different. I think it's useful to try to work out how the game is likely to go when placing bets on corners. (P.S. Congratulations on the winning draw bet :)) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThusPrider Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Re: Liverpool v Spurs > Mon 6th feb Tottenham +0.5 1.990 (fluctuating) Pinnacle 10/10 Good win for the night. I agree, MP. Betting on stats such as corners, penalty awarded and cards are extremely difficult to margin imo. Initial odds or the corners market will be decided purely by the statistics plus some intriging statistical analysis from the bookies to derive a formula with a standard deviation which can be applied to every circumstance and thus the bookie will open that market and add a extra commission on top to suit profit. Other bookies will also collude with each other over the prices and are usually extremely low flucluctuating with very small limits on the markets. More "professional" bookies such as Pinnacle wont even offer markets for those kind of bets. I dont want to sound unkind, but everyone who bets on these kind of stats are fighting in a usually high commission market, any arbs you take or accidently take will end to limiting/closure of accounts, as well as having comparitively small maximum stakes allowed on the markets. Finally statistics on previous meetings are near meaningless. Players go, managers go, refrees change. Statistics from 2 seasons ago imo are completely worthless. You may disagree, as im aware I do have extreme opinions and always arrogantly think that im right. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sportxtipster Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Re: Liverpool v Spurs > Mon 6th feb Guys, maybe you are right! Maybe someday I will be cured from these strange things ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kiddo112 Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Re: Liverpool v Spurs > Mon 6th feb I know you said these bets would have won, because the final corner count was 7-4. But the corner count is normally related to events in the game. At half time, the corner count was 1-3. Then as the second half wore on, Liverpool put more and more energy into attack and Spurs defended. If either side had scored, the corner count might well have been quite different. I think it's useful to try to work out how the game is likely to go when placing bets on corners. (P.S. Congratulations on the winning draw bet :)) Of course it's important to try and work out how the game will play out. It is one thing to look at stats, it is another to consider how the game will flow. I normally don't like betting corners at all it takes is a goal for one team to swing the momentum. This is especially true where the teams are quite even. For the game itself, I think I read it fairly well in that the 2 wing-backs seemed hesitant to get forward in the first half, especially Kelly. And of course the upturn in corners in the 2nd half was partly due to Downing coming off the bench to provide more width. Also, in hindsight, if you look at the Spurs bench, it was fairly clear that they didn't have much to come on, and so it was pretty reasonable to expect Liverpool to be pressing more 2nd half. Of course if it was 2-0 at halftime, then this is not going to play out that way. But again I felt that Liverpool would struggle to break Spurs down, and so expected them to be either chasing the game, or as it was pushing for a winner. Also, in their home games against the bigger teams, Liverpool seem to have been happy to sit deep for period of the game and let their opponents have possession. But then when they get the ball, break quickly down the flanks, with the likes of Adam spraying the ball wide. The Man City cup game was a perfect example, City had 62% possession to Liverpool's 38%, yet Liverpool won the corners 12-2. Another reason for this was that City tried to play through the middle that night. Anyway I am rambling a bit, but yes with any such bets (cards, corners), I fully agree, it is important to consider how the game will flow. And to be honest I am yet to be convinced that they are markets I can profit in. I have started to read a lot of the stuff that Micheal Cox (Zonal Marking) writes about formations and tactics, in order to help me analyse games better and so improve my predictions for future matches. Worth a read if you don;t already :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jase82 Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Re: Liverpool v Spurs > Mon 6th feb Statistics from 2 seasons ago imo are completely worthless. I wouldn't say they're completely worthless unless something really really big changes. i.e. Man City and the fact they are now such a powerhouse. You'd be surprised the amount of statistical trends that carry through even after such changes. When I was more into looking at corner handicaps I used to look back at past seasons, take into account the scoreline, and take note of any significant changes. If there was a significant alteration from previous trends I would investigate why that might be. Regarding corners, you can use previous corner stats to investigate similar scenarios to determine a pattern and make a judgement call. The main point is to never ever dismiss anything out of hand, and accept that even the most unfathomable solution may lead to the correct path. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThusPrider Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Re: Liverpool v Spurs > Mon 6th feb Guys' date=' maybe you are right! Maybe someday I will be cured from these strange things ...[/quote'] Yes I was thinking of the bets made on here on overs with corners. I wasnt sure if that corner would count but I guess it wasnt awarded before the half time whistle blew. I must admit you do like your 2 - 3 goals market and never really paid much attention to you thinking "typical average punter", though they kept coming in for you at nice even wins. I was most impressed on one Europa league thread where you spammed the thread with 20 posts each one predicting a Draw at 3.40-3.70 with comparitive bad odds against better odds bookies, though I remember more than half of them came in for you, and at odds of about 3.50 thats extremely impressive. I did once take a leaf out of your book in a game between Norwich and Tottenham in the league at carrow road this season. I was really stuck on the fence on overs/unders as well as 1x2. Not wanting to miss a game I dug hard and found that 2-3 goals was the perfect market for this game at around 11/10, which was extremely generous imo. I quickly checked if I was arbing this by accident (I need all my accounts!) and realising the bookies were taking 5% margin (yes, FIVE WHOLE PERCENT!), I stuck the bet on as it covered such a huge range of realistic results imo, 1 - 1, 2 - 0 2 - 1 to either side 3 - 0 wins etc. I thought it would be closer to odds of perhaps 10/11 for this game or even as less as 17/20. In the end it finished 0 - 2 and a nice modest win. Didnt take more bets on afterwards though, due to the big margins bookies are generally taking as well as that Ive not found a game that I felt this will have surpassed deviation value. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThusPrider Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Re: Liverpool v Spurs > Mon 6th feb Of course it's important to try and work out how the game will play out. It is one thing to look at stats, it is another to consider how the game will flow. I normally don't like betting corners at all it takes is a goal for one team to swing the momentum. This is especially true where the teams are quite even. For the game itself, I think I read it fairly well in that the 2 wing-backs seemed hesitant to get forward in the first half, especially Kelly. And of course the upturn in corners in the 2nd half was partly due to Downing coming off the bench to provide more width. Also, in hindsight, if you look at the Spurs bench, it was fairly clear that they didn't have much to come on, and so it was pretty reasonable to expect Liverpool to be pressing more 2nd half. Of course if it was 2-0 at halftime, then this is not going to play out that way. But again I felt that Liverpool would struggle to break Spurs down, and so expected them to be either chasing the game, or as it was pushing for a winner. Also, in their home games against the bigger teams, Liverpool seem to have been happy to sit deep for period of the game and let their opponents have possession. But then when they get the ball, break quickly down the flanks, with the likes of Adam spraying the ball wide. The Man City cup game was a perfect example, City had 62% possession to Liverpool's 38%, yet Liverpool won the corners 12-2. Another reason for this was that City tried to play through the middle that night. Anyway I am rambling a bit, but yes with any such bets (cards, corners), I fully agree, it is important to consider how the game will flow. And to be honest I am yet to be convinced that they are markets I can profit in. I have started to read a lot of the stuff that Micheal Cox (Zonal Marking) writes about formations and tactics, in order to help me analyse games better and so improve my predictions for future matches. Worth a read if you don;t already :ok Your point on the flow of the game I do agree on after reading your post. I guess if you know the formation and analyse players who like to shoot (deflections>corners) from 25-30 yards out as well as teams that are more compact in midfield vs teams that rely more on their widemen will definately have an effect on the corner count. I doubt bookies will take into consideration that and only base their odds on statistics which are easier to get hold of. This might give you a slighty margin in a high commission market. The only time I had ever bet on corners was a match between Man City and Lech poznan at Eastlands in City's last Europa league campaign. I was watching the game with a polish friend that was a Poznan supporter and I stuck a small mug punt on Poznan to have more corners at 5/1. This is just having abit of fun in the match, so we can celebrate every Poznan corner like a goal and I said ill use the profits to drive us out for a nice meal. In the end Poznan won the corners and it was a spiffing evening. Of course, that mug punt had no intention of making a long term profit, just a nice punt for the game which was on Channel 5 at the time for abit of fun. Keep work and play seperate. Of course I did not credit myself for the win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kiddo112 Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Re: Liverpool v Spurs > Mon 6th feb Your point on the flow of the game I do agree on after reading your post. I guess if you know the formation and analyse players who like to shoot (deflections>corners) from 25-30 yards out as well as teams that are more compact in midfield vs teams that rely more on their widemen will definately have an effect on the corner count. I doubt bookies will take into consideration that and only base their odds on statistics which are easier to get hold of. This might give you a slighty margin in a high commission market. The only time I had ever bet on corners was a match between Man City and Lech poznan at Eastlands in City's last Europa league campaign. I was watching the game with a polish friend that was a Poznan supporter and I stuck a small mug punt on Poznan to have more corners at 5/1. This is just having abit of fun in the match, so we can celebrate every Poznan corner like a goal and I said ill use the profits to drive us out for a nice meal. In the end Poznan won the corners and it was a spiffing evening. Of course, that mug punt had no intention of making a long term profit, just a nice punt for the game which was on Channel 5 at the time for abit of fun. Keep work and play seperate. Of course I did not credit myself for the win. The expected flow of a game is so important. An interesting market is the Race to X corners markets, say 3, 5 or 7. Especially with the Race to 3 corners market, these can be particulaly lob-sided and yet volatile, and sometimes offer up value going against the grain. I remember the recent Cardiff v C Palace Carling Cup Semi-final 2nd leg. Palace led 1-0 from the first leg, and so I am sure that the "average punter" reading of the game was that Cardiff would be doing all the pressing, and so would be expected to win the corners battle. In the race to 3 corners, Cardiff were as short as 1.3 if I recall correctly. I ended up backing them at the best price available, 1.54. But Cardiff scored early, without even winning a corner. So suddenly it was a much more even game in terms of expected flow, and I know I was very twitchy following the game. As far as I can remember Palace led 2-1 for a long time into the 2nd half, and while Cardiff did come through and win 3-2 in that market, it really drove home the importance of flow. As I said, not markets I play that often, and I am always very wary of doing so. I think similar to goals and cards, these are markets where the "average punter" likes to back the overs. They all like to wish for a goal, corner or cards, rather than hoping one doesn't arrive. So where possible, I like to investigate going against the grain, and backing the unders in these markets. Cards in Derby games is a particular favourite. Media ramping of the "red hot atmosphere" and even "hatred" between the fans leads the "average punter" to say there must be a cards. But looking closer sometimes, at things like the ref, the players involved, the expected flow of the game, and also the time of kick-off, can sometimes lead to finding value. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackcrow Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Re: Liverpool v Spurs > Mon 6th feb Liverpool @ 2.08 pinnacle Liverpool generally lift their game and play better against the top sides but were outclassed in their previous meeting with Spurs earlier in the season, and even though they finished with 9 players, they were already beaten after ten minutes. What makes this game different is that Gerrard is back in midfield and need him to negate Modric's and Parker's influence in the middle of the park, but the problem is who plays with him. Would like to see Spearing there just to put pressure on these two, as Adam is clumsy in the tackles and will get eaten up by the, like he was at WHL, while Henderson is not ready for this. Defensively, believe Liverpool can cope with Spurs, as Enrique will probably not have to face Lennon, while Johnson has the pace to match it with Bale, and also expect someone like Kuyt to play on the right to help provide some extra help to stifle Bale. In the middle, Agger and Skrtel have played well all season, and should not have much to worry about if Saha comes in with Adebayor, Defoe and van der Vaart all looking likely to miss out. However if Modric gets the freedom to domiante the midfield, then his incisive passing could cause Liverpool's defence trouble, as he has the knack to get the ball behind the defensive line. If Spearing starts, then he has the ability to reduce his effectiveness. As for Liverpool, they will fancy their chances of scoring on a Spurs defence that has conceded in 8 of their last 9 away games, and though the defence has been pretty solid, they face a rejuvenated Bellamy has been in very good form, while Carroll may finally be showing some of the form that Liverpool paid for. The question is whether Suarez starts, as if he does, he gives them a massive lift when going forward, as he can can get in and behind the Spurs defence here, especially with Gerrard to feed him. Spurs do not have a good record at Anfield, and with them missing Adebayor and van der Vaart, they lack potency up front, with Bale the only other player who scores regularly for them. Liverpool have some momentum after their cup progress and the win over Wolves, so like them to continue that form here, and do enough to edge this game. :( (oops, inserted wrong emoticon) Season record: 110-131 (+20.21) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThusPrider Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Re: Liverpool v Spurs > Mon 6th feb :) Season record: 110-131 (+20.21) Erm, im sure the game ended as a draw? The expected flow of a game is so important. An interesting market is the Race to X corners markets, say 3, 5 or 7. Especially with the Race to 3 corners market, these can be particulaly lob-sided and yet volatile, and sometimes offer up value going against the grain. I remember the recent Cardiff v C Palace Carling Cup Semi-final 2nd leg. Palace led 1-0 from the first leg, and so I am sure that the "average punter" reading of the game was that Cardiff would be doing all the pressing, and so would be expected to win the corners battle. In the race to 3 corners, Cardiff were as short as 1.3 if I recall correctly. I ended up backing them at the best price available, 1.54. But Cardiff scored early, without even winning a corner. So suddenly it was a much more even game in terms of expected flow, and I know I was very twitchy following the game. As far as I can remember Palace led 2-1 for a long time into the 2nd half, and while Cardiff did come through and win 3-2 in that market, it really drove home the importance of flow. As I said, not markets I play that often, and I am always very wary of doing so. I think similar to goals and cards, these are markets where the "average punter" likes to back the overs. They all like to wish for a goal, corner or cards, rather than hoping one doesn't arrive. So where possible, I like to investigate going against the grain, and backing the unders in these markets. Cards in Derby games is a particular favourite. Media ramping of the "red hot atmosphere" and even "hatred" between the fans leads the "average punter" to say there must be a cards. But looking closer sometimes, at things like the ref, the players involved, the expected flow of the game, and also the time of kick-off, can sometimes lead to finding value. Yes, though I know games change, I hate any market where I have to place bets in-play... having to wait 10 seconds to place it, generally bad odds though with high fluctuations leading to high frequency of arbs even as well as the fluctuations itself which im annoyed about. PLUS the fact that i know I cant be sure im getting the best possible price. I guess if you pay enough attention to the game and have plenty of experience with these kind of things beforehand, its impossible bookies with analyse each game the same way and should give you an advantage in play. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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