Commonwealth Bank ODI Series (Australia/India/Sri Lanka)

[Lahrio]

Re: Commonwealth Bank ODI Series (Australia/India/Sri Lanka)

6pts Under 5.5 6's 5/6 William Hill Nonsense line. Boundaries at the MCG are absolutely huge and there were only 5 6's in the last match here because a) India bowled a load of dross and b) it was a shortened match so the slog could come out more freely. Usually you don't get many 6's here. The wicket can be a bit slow and the boundaries are humungous. Sri Lanka might have smashed a load of 6's in Hobart last time out but they won't be smashing many 6's in this match unless Australia send down a load of short balls that Dilshan catches hold of. By the same token I don't think Sri Lanka will concede too many 6's in this match either. Watson is a danger to any 6's bet but even he will struggle to clear the ropes around here. I'm confident we won't see 6 6's in this match. The two new balls don't help batsmen get the slog out for prolonged periods so we won't see no Watson specials here I don't think so I'm happy to be on the unders here.

100% agree. I've actually taken the 4.5 6's line offered by Sportingbet @ 2.60. I love matches played at the MCG because for some reason the 6's line is always set ridiculously high. Sri Lanka hardly hit a 6 all tournament before Tuesday, where they capitalised on short Hobart boundaries and a road of a pitch. Australia have hit a few, but at the MCG hitting 5 6's is something we don't often see in T20's let alone ODI's where players are more willing to knock the ball around. Odds of 8/5 have tempted me into the lower line. :ok 5pts Sangakarra to bt Wade (Run = 1pt, Catch = 10pt, Stumping = 20pt) @ 1.80 (Sportingbet) Sangakarra hit some form the other night with a quick fire century in good Hobart batting conditions, and I expect he will be able to continue that here at a ground that suits his style of batting to a tee. He will be batting higher up the order than Wade, who I expect to come in at 7 again. Australia without Clarke look weak to spin, and this could work in Sanga's favour in terms of a couple of stumping opportunities. Sri Lanka are much better players of spin, however, and Australia will be relying more on their pace attack rather than Doherty to get wickets.

[dartscricketexpert]

Re: Commonwealth Bank ODI Series (Australia/India/Sri Lanka) Brilliant stuff Kevin

[Lahrio]

Re: Commonwealth Bank ODI Series (Australia/India/Sri Lanka) What a day. Every bet in this thread was a winner! :loon +19.5pts today for me personally. :ok

[GrimReaper]

Re: Commonwealth Bank ODI Series (Australia/India/Sri Lanka) My God, what a jack pot this game!!! Well done lads! Really appreciate it.

[kevshat]

Re: Commonwealth Bank ODI Series (Australia/India/Sri Lanka) Excellent match all round in Melbourne last time out. Wasn't the worst game of cricket in the world either. +19.2pts for me for that match plus another 9.5 for the India parts of the outrights put me up to +50.27pts coming into the first final later on. I'm not going to do any write ups here for two reasons, one it's toss time soon and two because I'm taking the exact same bets as I took in the last game minus the Sangakkara one. The reasoning for all three are literally the same with the Gabba being almost as big as the MCG is and although a bit of bounce might favour Australia I still think Sri Lanka are a belting price after beating Australia in the last 3 meetings which should've been 4 from 4 but for Angelo Mathews' miscue in the opening match between the two when a clean hit would've won the game. Despite top scoring in the last match David Hussey is still 6/1 and the 6's line the same. So the same 3 bets for me. 3pts Sri Lanka to win 1st Final 6/4 Boylesports 6pts Under 5.5 6's 8/11 Paddy Power 1pt ew D.Hussey Top Australia Batsman 6/1 Coral (1/5 1,2,3)

[kevshat]

Re: Commonwealth Bank ODI Series (Australia/India/Sri Lanka) Disappointing wipeout in game 1 so back to +39.27 overall now. Going with three for today. 4pts Sri Lanka to beat Australia 6/4 William Hill I still can't believe we're getting 6/4 on Sri Lanka in this series. Conditions in Brisbane were never going to suit them, I knew that but took my chances with them and they were within 15 runs of winning in alien conditions against a wonder knock from Dave Warner. He's not likely to play in this match but even if he was he wouldn't hit another knock like that for a while. Conditions in Adelaide will suit the Sri Lankans a lot more. The ball won't bounce as high and the wicket will be a bit slower so the likes of Dilshan, Chandimal et al will have time to play their shots. The square boundaries are quite short which can be a help for them too but most importantly I think the wicket will turn a bit which will bring them bang into the game with their two spinners bowling so well. Australia still haven't convinced me in recent matches and if you take away Warner's 163 in the last game, even if he hit a 100 but a normal 100 - say 120 they would only have had a par score. I think Sri Lanka are playing the better cricket and in conditions more to their liking they can level this series and force a decider in the best of 3 finals. 4pts Over 4.5 6's 4/5 Paddy Power Not a bet I take too often where Sri Lanka are involved but I like it here. Sri Lanka have come out of their shell in the last couple of matches and are hitting the ball a long way. The likes of Dilshan, Sangakkara and Jayawardene, so good with their wrists, can clear the square boundaries here while it's never been an issue for the likes of Chandimal, Mathews should he play, and Kulasekera. Australia could well shove Watson up to open if Warner doesn't make it and we know he can clear the ropes here. Most of the Australian top order can clear the ropes too and with a few more overs from spin being bowled than normal I think we can see the 5 6's hit here. 1pt ew D.Hussey Top Australia Batsman 6/1 Coral (1/5 1,2,3) Not going to harp on about David Hussey. He didn't deliver for me on Sunday but I'm always one for second chances and when Australia played India here earlier in the series Hussey top scored so I think that alone merits him another shot here. There won't be another Warner 163 to worry about here and if normal service in the Australian top order is resumed then David Hussey will have every chance of yet another top score down the order. Australia's tail was a bit longer than normal on Sunday so that put the top order under pressure. They coped on Sunday but might not here. At 6/1 David Hussey is still each way value in this match.

[Lahrio]

Re: Commonwealth Bank ODI Series (Australia/India/Sri Lanka) 3pts Sri Lanka to win @ 2.44 (Pinnacle) Write-ups seem to be getting a bit pointless, as we are just saying the same things with regards to this match-up. Sri Lanka have shown they are more than capable of beating Australia, and I think the Adelaide Oval will be a more likely place for them to win than in Brisbane, which is usually a fast bowlers wicket. Sri Lanka also have to win to take it to a 3rd Final, whereas Australia don't have to being 1-0 up in the finals already. David Warner also has some doubts over him with a groin strain possibly keeping him out. Although, even if he was to be out of this game, his form hasn't been overly impressive with the exception of a big 160 in Brisbane. Sri Lanka showed some real fighting spirit in Brisbane to get close to a mammoth chase, and that was despite none of their big four batsmen firing. Sri Lanka clearly have plenty of match-winners in Malinga, Matthews, Dlishan, Sangakarra, Jayawardene, and yet again this series, I feel odds of 2.44 are too long. David Hussey has had to rescue Australia out of far too many sticky situations in this tournament for Australia to be 1.6 favourites.

[Lahrio]

Re: Commonwealth Bank ODI Series (Australia/India/Sri Lanka) Sorry Kev, my write-up is almost identical to yours! I swear I started typing that out before you posted. :lol It's always good when you agree with my train of thought though!

[FreelanceTips]

Re: Commonwealth Bank ODI Series (Australia/India/Sri Lanka) Game #11 -5pts Running Total -10.75pts I'm hurting a bit after that incredible Indian chase in Hobart and put myself in the sin bin. I'm ready to bounce back today. 2nd Final Australia v Sri Lanka 5pts Sri Lanka defeat India 2.42 Pinncale At the risk of repeating what has been said already, Sri Lanka are a vastly under-estimated prospect in this finals series. They have been in great form and should bounce back strongly from the Brisbane loss. They can take a lot of heart from the fighting spirit shown by the Sri Lanka lower order and will be much better placed in Adelaide where it's conducive to spin. Without Warner, Australia will call in Forrest, who is a good batsman but scores too slowly. 1pt Michael Clarke Top Bat Australia 5.50 Sportingbet Clarke has never been out of form for the whole series and returned last game still in good touch. He is very determined to close out this series and he also plays spin well, which will help on the Adelaide surface. Expecting a good batting wicket so I don't think that the Hussey brothers will get enough time at the crease to get a big score, so the top bat will likely come from the top 4. 2pts Dan Christian Under 38.5 Performance Points Luxbet As mentioned above, I'm expecting another batting wicket so Christian is not likely to get a lot of time at the crease and may be lucky to get a late over cameo slog. His last few innings have been dissappointing with scores of 6, 24, 3 and 10. Even though this is his home ground, it's not greatly suited to his bowling and if it's good for batting he might struggle to pick up wickets too. 2pts Xavier Doherty Most Economical Bowler 5.00 Stan James Adelaide will suit the spinners and Doherty is economical at the best of times. He is sure to get a full quota of 10 overs and the Sri Lankans will be wary of going after him too hard. I'm expecting the faster bowlers to be taken to task - in both teams. In this market he is up against Lee, Watson, Malinga, Kulasekera and Herath. Herath might be the only real threat on economy.

[kevshat]

Re: Commonwealth Bank ODI Series (Australia/India/Sri Lanka) No need to apologise Lahrio mate. Always good when others back up thoughts :ok. Sri Lanka did us all a favour today. Should be a superb decider on Thursday.

[kevshat]

Re: Commonwealth Bank ODI Series (Australia/India/Sri Lanka) Up to +46.47 after the second final and Warner is now perfectly placed to bring my outright bet on him in too. Just the one for me in the final final. Bit pushed for time. If I have time I'll explore the side markets but I've taken this already. 5pts Sri Lanka to win 3rd Final 6/5 Betfred I still see no reason whatsoever why Sri Lanka are odds against in this match. They dominated the last match despite some dropped catches and since then Australia have lost a centurion in Michael Clarke and James Pattinson who are both ruled out through injury for this match. That means Watson will skipper the Aussies which I don't particularly like although at least it isn't Ricky Ponting. This Australia bowling attack is a bit too samey for my liking and the Sri Lankans know if they want to they can milk Doherty and still win off the rest of the bowlers. Given how comfortably Sri Lanka won the last match when they had to chase down 272 to stay alive in the tournament shows the potential and the quality they have not to mention how well they are playing. I've waxed lyrical about Mahela Jayawardene's captaincy enough in this series but I don't need to do it again. Opening the bowling with Dilshan shows the variety they have in their side and I fully believe that Sri Lanka will be the ones taking advantage of Australia's injuries and will win this series decider.

[FreelanceTips]

Re: Commonwealth Bank ODI Series (Australia/India/Sri Lanka) Good bounce back last game. Hope I can keep it going for the final. 2nd Final +11.4pts Running Total +0.65pts 5pts Sri Lanka defeat Australia 2.19 Pinnacle Australia is going to lose Clarke, which is a huge loss considering he was the best batsman last game and he is Australias best player of spin. Watson is a good player, but is a shadow of the captain that Clarke is and in a pressure game like this, he may be in over his head. Pattinson is also a loss for Australia, while Sri Lanka are a chance of bringing back Matthews. The Adelaide pitch is going to be slow and low, which will suit Sri Lanka. It is also a good chasing ground and Sri Lanka love to chase. All signs point to Sri Lanka here, so I'm maxing with 5pts (I don't go over 5). 1pt Dave Warner Top Australian Batsman 4.50 Sportingbet With 2 centuries in the first 2 finals, this price is a little bit rediculous. Warner is in some great form and showing real maturity as a batsman. With Clarke out of the side and criticism of Australias low scoring rate, he will be up for a big game today and is a chance of putting in a match winning knock. This bet is part common sense, but also a hedge against the Sri Lanka match bet above. If Australia has a chance of winning then Dave Warner needs to play a big role. 1pt Over 5.5 Sixes for Match 1.91 Stan James Same pitch as last game and it'll be a nice sunny day so don't expect much swing and we know the pitch won't have much pace, bounce or seam. As such, one can expect a score of less than 300 will simply not be good enough and the team batting first (likely Australia) will be aggressive from the outset. There is a short boundary square of the wicket which will probably be targetted. Can see Dave Warner potentially hitting 6 sixes on his own. 2pts Highest Scoring Over, Over 15.5 1.87 Sportingbet As mentioned above, expecting a high scoring game and with batsmen going hell for leather during the power plays, 16 runs in an over should not be too hard to get.

[kevshat]

Re: Commonwealth Bank ODI Series (Australia/India/Sri Lanka) No joy with the final match but Warner and Malinga brought home their outrights so I end the series +54.72pts. Well done to everyone who had winning picks in this thread, of which there were quite a few of us. Hopefully this thread is one of many profitable cricket threads throughout the year :clap:clap.

[FreelanceTips]

Re: Commonwealth Bank ODI Series (Australia/India/Sri Lanka) Ouch. That was a horrible way to end the series for me. Warner one run short and sixes one short too. Don't even get me started about Sri Lanka blowing an easy chase... 3rd Final -9pts Series Bets +0pts (Dilshan won, Hussey & India lost) Total for Series -8.35pts