Premier League 2012 - Outright bets

[kevshat]

With darts now having it's own forum we can begin threads for the major events a lot earlier than before so we'll kick start the Premier League thread now. It's only just over 2 weeks away anyway so the timing fits. Same format as previous seasons. Andy Hamilton and Kevin Painter make their debuts in the tournament this year. All the tournament is live on Sky as normal. We'll have weekly threads for the matches so this thread is for all outright bets to do with the Premier League. Fire away gentlemen :ok.

[kevshat]

Re: Premier League 2012 - Outright bets A few outrights for me to begin with. Some value and some nice lines I like. 1pt J.Wade to top League Table 11/1 Blue Square There's two players I like in this tournament - Wade and Lewis but I don't really see why Wade is half the price again as big as Lewis to win the regular season. I think Taylor could be there to be shot at in this tournament, especially with the amount of heavy scorers on show this season and his invincibility is starting to wane too. So we have Lewis who is turning himself into a player for the big occasion and Wade who is a consistent player week in week out. Now he started last season crap but we've found out why since then and I'll give him that and cut him some slack. On his day he's right up there as one of the best players in the world and I think missing the playoffs last year will spur him on in this tournament. He can't afford to be casual in this tournament because if he is then he can be picked off by any of the players, like any of them can. Wade also has a bit to prove too having somehow lost that World Championship semi final from 5-1 up. He's already made a semi final in Benidorm in one of the Players Championship tournaments so there's nothing wrong with his form and if Taylor drops a few matches then I would expect Wade to be right in the mix given that really it's only Taylor who he wouldn't be strongly fancied to beat in this tournament. At 11/1 I'll see how close Wade can go to the top. 2pts S.Whitlock Most 180's (Incl playoffs) 5/1 Bet365 Simon Whitlock has been scoring seriously well since his comeback from injury and I see no reason why that won't continue in this tournament. Even on one leg he was hitting 180's like they were going out of fashion. He scored very heavily at the World Cup at the weekend as well and why I like him over the natural pick of Gary Anderson is a) I think he'll play more legs but b) as you'll see in a minute where I'll elaborate more, I don't think Anderson is a shoo in for the top four and if he doesn't make it I think Whitlock, in the form he is in, will. Adrian Lewis doesn't seem to be the 180 hitter he used to be, or hasn't in recent events at least while the only other phenomenally heavy scorer - Andy Hamilton - is unlikely to make the last four. At 5/1 with a potential of playing two more matches if my prediction is right, Whitlock looks a decent alternative to Gary Anderson. 3pts G.Anderson NOT to make semi finals 13/8 William Hill (7/4 available at Sportingbet but I'm not recommending any bets or betting there until they drop their deposit fee) I think Gary Anderson is vulnerable here I really do. His missed doubles are becoming a real issue now and if anything it's an issue which is getting worse. He should have lost to Jyhan Artut in the World Championship because of it, he nearly lost to Devon Petersen because of it and he did lose to Simon Whitlock because of it. Whenever Anderson steps up for a double I don't know about anyone else but I'm never more than 10% confident he's going to hit it. He's clearly letting it effect him too because he doesn't appear to be enjoying the game anymore and with his ongoing shoulder issue too I think we'll see Anderson come a cropper and maybe even give up in a few matches when his doubles start to kill him. There isn't a player in this field not capable of beating him. Ok it must be said there isn't one he can't beat but if his double troubles continue then there are no players making up the numbers in the tournament this year and I don't think he'll get away with it like he would have against the Jenkins' and Webster's of this world last year. The two supposedly weak players in this tournament are a major TV tournament winner and the world finalist. This is as strong as the PL gets and there are 6 genuine players even if we discard Hamilton and Painter, which we shouldn't do, genuinely going for four spots. Someone has to miss out and I sense it could be Anderson. 3pts R.Barneveld - Over 4.5 Regular Season wins 6/4 Ladbrokes I've had to take this. Everyone else can write off Barney if they want to but I'm not going to. He's still a class act and the fact he'll be playing every week in this tournament could just see him hit the straps we know he can do. To be fair to the Dutchman he's been a bit unlucky in recent TV tournaments. He walked into a Scott Rand who is unlikely to play like he did in Doncaster again in his life in the Players Championship and he walked into James Richardson who took out two monster finishes against him at perfect times in the World Championship but I doubt Richardson will ever do that again either. What I like about Barney is he went to Benidorm and played the Players Championship events last weekend so he's willing to play more. He showed at the World Cup at the weekend that he's playing some decent enough stuff and I think over the course of the 14 weeks here there are definitely 5 wins for him I think. Barney was runner up in the regular season last year and while that could be beyond him I don't think 5 wins are. 3pts G.Anderson's Regular Season 180s - Over 61.5 5/6 Skybet This line looks high on the face of it but Anderson hit 68 180's last season and he didn't have the double troubles he has coming into this season. Well he did but it wasn't anything like as bad as it is at the present time so he could well play a few more legs and I wouldn't be surprised were he to reach the 70 mark this season. It's only 5 a week and at times last season he was hitting 11 in matches. We know Anderson will miss doubles but we know he will score 180's too and in what I foresee as a more competitive league I don't think he'll be thrashing anyone 8-1 like he did Mark Webster twice last season. We would need an average of 4.5 180's a week from the defending champion for this bet to land and I think that's well within his compass. 3pts A.Hamilton Regular Season 180's - Over 44.5 Evs Skybet Andy Hamilton's 180 line is a bit on the low side as well. He's a monster 180 hitter when he gets going and perhaps he won't have the consistency Anderson will have or the regularity but he will hit enough on his good nights to ensure this gets covered. This line requires a little over 3 a week on average and there will be weeks where Hamilton hits 6 or more 180's which will bring this total down in large chunks. I don't think there will be many, if any, weeks where he doesn't score well. I understand he's been averaging well over 100 in practice and that shows how well he's scoring. To be fair he showed it in the World Championship and I can't see the Hammer not finding 45 180's over the course of 14 weeks here.

[sneej]

Re: Premier League 2012 - Outright bets Nice previews kev, especially like the hamilton 180s bet. Completely agreed about sportingbet by the way, disgraceful charging a fee now on deposits....i refuse to use them until this is scrapped :unsure

[Tyler]

Re: Premier League 2012 - Outright bets Yeah nice right ups Kev. Some good-looking ones in there too. Not going crazy on the outrights. I'm just siding with the big guy. - 2pts Adrian Lewis to win the Mccoys Premier League @ 9/2 [Ladbrokes] I have been umming and ahhing about this for a few days now. Decided to pull the trigger. I like Lewis' maturity and his recent performance on the big stages. He reached the final here last year and walked into a rampant Gary Anderson. I am not overly convinced on Anderson or Taylor this year though which means Lewis has to be the guy. The format isn't completely his thing but I expect him to waltz into the final four and I fancy him to beat Taylor in a one-off semi or final like he did last year. The other person I would consider for this title is James Wade. He is a slow starter though, I think the price on him will lengthen and reach closer to 10's before it starts to come in. Lewis is my guy from the off though.

[kevshat]

Re: Premier League 2012 - Outright bets Yeah he's the guy who I think will win it overall too. Hoping to pick up a better price as the tournament goes along but if not I'll take a shorter price on finals night when we know who he is playing and stuff. Good luck mate :ok

[fishy25]

Re: Premier League 2012 - Outright bets Was a good darting xmas for a few of us so hopefully that success will carry on into the PL. I've taken a fair few outrights so I'll get right to them. Agreed on sportingbet and their deposit fee but have some money in my account with them so that's the only reasons I've taken some of these bets with them. Adrian Lewis to win Premier League- 9/2 Blue Square- (2/10) Adrian Lewis to top League Table- 7/1 Blue Square- (2/10) For me, I have 2 guys on my list as potential winners of the Premier League this season and the first of those is the world champion. Over the 14 weeks in the group stage, consistency is absolutely crucial and Lewis has shown in the past couple of years how consistent he actually is. Last year, the only TV tournaments he failed to make at least the semis were the UK Open and the Grand Prix, which are notorious for providing shock results. He was the runner up in this tournament 12 months ago, and is coming off the back of being a World Cup winner and defending his World Championship which shows how good he really is. Put that with being the runner up at the European Championship and a semi finalist at the Grand Slam and World Matchplay, and you have arguably the best player around over the past 12 months or so and a guy who is edging closer to replacing Taylor as no.1 in the world. Taylor himself just hasn't been firing at all of late, that was evident at the weekend where he lost to Burnett, Mawson and MacNeil so I really can't be having him at the odds he is to win the tournament this season given his form. Gary Anderson I secretly suspect like Kev may struggle this season as his doubles are really costing him and that was the reason South Africa beat Gary and Wright in the World Cup and over the shortish format, there's certainly no guarantees he'll even make it to the semis given the strength of the league this season. I wouldn't expect Hamilton or Painter to make it to the semis despite what they've shown of late, whilst Wade I feel still lacks that clinical edge when it comes to the pressure moments. I struggle to see Jackpot not making it to the semis at the very least and feel he has a great chance of taking the title this year hence the outright. The price looks a little high for him to top the league as well for the reasons I've mentioned and there's really nobody he will feel he shouldn't be beating given he is 2 time world champ so I'll have a bit of a punt on him topping the league come the end of week 14. Simon Whitlock to win Premier League- 15/2 Bet365- (2/10) Simon Whitlock to top League Table- 12/1 William Hill- (1/10) Simon Whitlock to Qualify for Semi Finals- 10/11 William Hill- (3/10) Simon Whitlock Over 5.5 League Wins- Evens Ladbrokes- (3/10) :rollinfair to say I fancy Whitlock to go well in the league this season. I've spoken a lot about most of the guys in the league so far so no need to repeat that but from what I've seen from the Aussie at the World Championship and also at the World Cup, I really don't see why he isn't being more fancied. His finishing has been solid, whilst his scoring has been devastating at times, as he's found the treble with absolute ease. What I really like about Whitlock is that he'll usually start quickly and that can be crucial in a first to 8 legs match. Some of the big guns like Anderson, Taylor and even Wade and Lewis can be a little slow out of the traps but Whitlock doesn't usually take long to find his range. We saw over at Ally Pally how much quality he has, almost making a world final on essentially one leg which is astonishing when you think about it. On his day, he can outscore anyone and as long as his finishing remains solid, I think he has a superb chance this season and I certainly expect him to make the semis as I feel there's a pretty decent chance that Anderson or Wade, or even both to be honest may struggle. Whitlock's in really good shape at the minute and I think he'll be right up for the tournament given the disappointment of losing in the final the other day of the World Cup so like Lewis, I'd be hugely surprised if Whitlock didn't make it through to the semis or even go further with the form he's in. Just a quick note on the group stage wins which looks really low to me. For a guy of Whitlock's quality, to win 6 of his 14 group matches shouldn't be too taxing. He'd be a massive favourite in both matches against Painter and Hamilton, both of whom I'd expect him to beat in both matches, whilst Barney is still a little hit and miss so he'll have chances to beat the Dutchman again, like he did at the weekend. I'd actually have him as favourite to beat Wade as well in truth as he'll outscore him for the majority of the match so as long as he finishes well, he should win there. The matches mentioned should actually see him get to at least 6 wins, not to mention the finishing inability of Gary Anderson as well, whilst I'd be surprised if Whitlock didn't beat one of the 2 big guns at some point as well. Regardless, I fancy him to go really well this year and expect him to really perform well. Adrian Lewis Most Tournament 180s- 6/1 Blue Square- (2/10) Simon Whitlock Most Tournament 180s- 5/1 Blue Square- (2/10) Spoken loads about both guys so there's not much more to say. I expect both to make the semis which is the main thing you need to consider in this market and the only other guy who will compete seriously in this market is Gary Anderson, but I'll speak in a minute why I'm not backing him. That leaves this two who are the only other really serious 180 hitters, aside from Andy Hamilton who shouldn't be making the semis. I backed Lewis at the World Championship to hit the most maximums and he delivered as once he found some form, he started hitting them pretty consistently. Agreed with Kev though, he doesn't seem to hit as many as he used to but you'd still expect him to notch up a fair few over the duration of the tournament. That leaves Simon Whitlock as well, who hit 180 after 180 at Ally Pally on just one leg so he'll be right up there with Lewis in terms of 180s. If Whitlock would have made the World Championship final, he would probably have hit the most tournament 180s and there's nothing to suggest he won't be hitting them for fun again here, so I'll back these two to really battle out to top the table in terms of maximums. Kevin Painter to finish bottom of the League- 5/2 Sportingbet- (3/10) The bookies have this market between 2 guys really, 3 including Barney but it looks as though it will be between Painter and Hamilton. The thing which should save Hamilton and get him some wins is his scoring ability. We saw at Ally Pally how well he does score when playing well and I think he may fare better than Painter in the league. The thing that has got Painter a Wildcard in the Premier League was his win in the Players Championship where he played well and his finishing was superb. The worry for me with Painter is that given his scoring isn't as devastating as some guys in the league, he'll have to finish consistently well and I'm not so sure he will do that over the course of 14 weeks. He needs momentum a lot of the time does Painter, and if he goes on a run of losing 2 or 3 matches in as many weeks, it's left to be seen how well he will bounce back and that has been a problem for him in the past. I'm not saying he will get hammered in every match, but I'm a little doubtful to how many wins he will actually get under his name and I fancy the Artist to be looking up at everyone else come the end of the league. Gary Anderson not to reach the semis- 7/4 Sportingbet- (3/10) Gary Anderson to finish bottom of the league- 25/1 Bet365- (1/10) I can only really echo what Kev has said about the Scot really as he's summed it up perfectly. You don't win matches if you can't hit your doubles and that saying has never been more true than with Gary Anderson. It's beginning to become somewhat of a joke and whether it's down to his shoulder problem or a lack of love for the game I don't know but it definitely is a huge worry for the Scot. Right now, there's nobody who couldn't beat him given his finishing form and that was shown at the World Championship as Artut and Peterson should have beaten him early on. As long as you can consistently score well, you're always going to get chances against Anderson and given the quality of the league this season, there's really no guarantees that Anderson is getting into the semis in my opinion and with any of 6 players capable of making the top 4, I'm not so sure Gary will make the cut. If the defending champ does lose a few games and know that he hasn't really got a chances of making the semis, this price for him to come bottom is massive. As has been mentioned, anyone can beat him with his finishing and if the motivation or enthusiasm isn't there, I feel he has a bigger chance than a 25/1 shot of finishing bottom here. Painter and Hamilton certainly can't be ruled out against the Scot, whilst everyone else will know they definitely have the game to beat him. This is a really strong lineup this year in the PL, and because of that and the trouble he has been having with his doubles, I'll have a small punt on the Scot having a change of fortune from that of last year. Raymond van Barneveld to reach the semi finals- 2/1 Bet365- (3/10) Raymond van Barneveld Over 4.5 League wins- 6/4 Ladbrokes- (3/10) Yeah also agree with Kev on the Barney front. Like he said, both Scott Rand and Gary Richardson will never play like they did against Barney in the last 2 majors so the Dutchman has been a tad unlucky in that respect but there still are signs that he is coming back into some form. I honestly think he'll make a major final some point this season and at the World Cup in Germany, he looked impressive to me and the old darts that he's switched back to have definitely improved his game. He's scoring heavily again once he gets going and although his doubles can go missing sometimes, they are certainly better than they were at one point last year. I've spoken about Anderson who I think may struggle, and I'm still not overly convinced about James Wade or even Taylor at the minute. That makes me think that this 2/1 price is a little high on Barney who did well in the group stage last season. Playing regularly could well suit him and I'm sure the motivation for him is high so he should really be up for the tournament. The 5 wins needed doesn't look too much either given Anderson is always going to give chances, and if he finishes well, he has the game to beat Whitlock and Wade you'd feel. Obviously we'd need him to beat Hamilton and Painter in all honesty but if he's playing well, he should be doing that and I'll back the Dutchman to really show why he can't be ruled out of the elite group yet. Phil Taylor Under 11.5 League wins- 8/11 Ladbrokes- (5/10) This line looks ridiculously too high to me hence the moderate stakes for an outright bet. He didn't look right at the World Cup to me and there's absolutely nothing in my eyes to suggest he's going to win at least 12 of his matches. Must bear in mind that it's possible to get draws in this format and with the way Taylor is scoring at the minute, he won't find it easy to break throw against any of the big guns this season. Lewis in truth carried him a little bit in the World Cup and the Power was missing doubles, something which you seldom see from the greatest player ever. Granted the bookies will be having Taylor as favourite for all of his group matches, but Lewis and Whitlock are certainly capable of giving Taylor a game even when he is playing well, and with the form he's in, Wade, Barney and Anderson if he plays well enough could also beat the Power. I'm not expecting Taylor to fail to reach the semis, but I don't see him winning as many matches as this line suggests so taking the unders on Taylor.

[PerryPFC]

Re: Premier League 2012 - Outright bets Great shouts guys. Winners with Whitlock, Anderson and Taylor by my reckoning. The 180 winner looks like coming from Taylor, Lewis or Whitlock, the last 2 both covered by fishy and Whitlock by Kev. Special mention to Fishy's 25/1 shout on Anderson finishing bottom! Great call considering he was defending champion! Fingers crossed Whitlock can win and do it with plenty of maximums to bring in a few more winners for the thread! Top work :notworthy