England > Midweek > Non-league Jan 23-25

[Shipsupstreets]

Re: England > Midweek > Non-league Jan 23-25 Just a couple of spreads for me tonight. A sell of the time of Alfreton Town's 2nd goal at 76 with Sporting Index. They have greater firepower these days and Bath City are just not defending well - clean sheets are rare at home. The player goal minute trade for me is a buy of Vinny Mukendi at 18 (Sporting Index). The Southport striker drifts in and out of form, and may have a slightly wider berth tonight, but did well against Luton on Saturday and will be fancying it against a poor Lincoln defence.

[sportxtipster]

Re: England > Midweek > Non-league Jan 23-25 Forest Green vs Wrecsam Home side is shaking recently. They are win less in last 7 games. They have scored just 1 goal in these 7 games and from this you get their weak performances. Wrecsam are in a promotion fight with Fleetwood, a very tough battle and can't afford wrong steps. The match will be hard fought as none of these two sides will want to lose the match. With just 8 goals conceding in 13 away matches, you get a good image of how Wrecsam treats every match. I think Wrecsam are a reliable team, and despite the missing penalty against Brighton they will concentrate even better here and get the win! Main fight is the promotion, right? away win @ 2.01 with Canbet

[sportxtipster]

Re: England > Midweek > Non-league Jan 23-25 Barrow vs Grimsby Grimsby are in an outstanding form and they should be very confident against this one. Barrow are a tough place to go, but not when you have such a striker like Hearn is: 22 goals in this season. 7 wins in a row for Mariners and they should be aiming with real chances to touch a Play off spot till the end of the season. Barrow remains in this Division with no relegation worries. away 0 AH @ 1.74 with Ladbrokers

[sportxtipster]

Re: England > Midweek > Non-league Jan 23-25 Blyth vs Altrincham Altrincham have shown to every one that they are ready to make the Play Offs and have been magnificent so far in the last 3 matches. Blyth are set to be relegated with 12 points under the red line and no power when playing home. Altrincham' reeves with 25 goals is going to set the attacks and put some goals into the net tonight! away win @ 1.80 with Coral

[MPLouis]

Re: England > Midweek > Non-league Jan 23-25

Fantastic odds on Barrow at home. I know Grimsby have this magnificent run atm but it's a young team who must get tired or carried away at some point and get this reality check. Cold' date= Tuesday night up in Barrow in January is a perfect place to stop this run. Gonna do a bit more reading before I make any decisions though.

Those were my thoughts until I saw Grimsby's recent results. No bet for me.

[Becika]

Re: England > Midweek > Non-league Jan 23-25 What about Hayes? Darlington is almost bankrupted and many players left the team. Hayes is one of the worst teams in BSP but 3 points here would be great because they fight against relegation. Many bookies removed this match but locals still offer 2,20-2,30 on home win.

[MPLouis]

Re: England > Midweek > Non-league Jan 23-25

Fixture: Forest Green Rovers v Wrexham Working fair odds out on basis of this season results I get the following odds: Home Win = 1.58 Draw = 3.37 Away Win = 5.4 Best odds available at posting are 2.0 (evens) at Coral or William Hill So there is value in this bet and should be snapped up at evens if available, in my opinion!

How do you work out fair value for Wrexham is 1.58?

[Darran]

Re: England > Midweek > Non-league Jan 23-25

What about Hayes? Darlington is almost bankrupted and many players left the team. Hayes is one of the worst teams in BSP but 3 points here would be great because they fight against relegation. Many bookies removed this match but locals still offer 2' date='20-2,30 on home win.[/quote'] I was hoping that Hayes would be long odds on for this game and I would probably have backed Darlo against them. Now I will leave the game alone. Darlo played well on Saturday and that might have been helped by the large crowd and the fact that they were playing the game at all. If Darlo are going to see out the season they will have to try and stay up as well and therefore getting something out of this game is important. Worth remembering as well that bar a 3-0 defeat at Barrow they arent doing that badly on the pitch and Colin Liddle is doing a fantastic job. As for Hayes they nearly got something out of the game at Mansfield on Saturday but I think that says more about Mansfield at home than it does Hayes. Hayes havent won for ages now and I wouldnt want to go rushing in to backing them here.

[Shipsupstreets]

Re: England > Midweek > Non-league Jan 23-25 Hampton/ETU is off tonight. Newport County are travelling to Worksop Town with a full squad of those available, which is rather stronger than I expected. I like what Worksop have been doing since they changed manager, but they are not defending well and though Newport aren't exactly free-scoring I'd expect them to overturn the supremacy of 0.6 at Sporting. Total goals at 3.1 also looks a potential buy tonight, though I'll wait to see what conditions are - they might be against scoring.

[Darran]

Re: England > Midweek > Non-league Jan 23-25 A couple of small bets for me tonight. I like Ebbsfleet at 6/5 against Tamworth. Tamworth have not won in the league since November now and they continue their what seems to be seasonal drop down the table after a good start. Theyve been leaky in defence and Ebbsfleet have the attacking capabilities to punish them tonight. Interestingly Tamworth have been getting on the score sheet themselves and Sportingbets offer of 9/5 on their being over 3.5 goals looks tempting as well. Worth remembering as well that Tuesday nights in the BSP this season have been goal crazy. I am also backing Southport at 8/5 with BetVictor against Lincoln. Im not reading too much into Lincoln coming back from 3-1 down to get a draw against Gateshead on Saturday as Gateshead were heading to a comfortable win before a sending off for each side changed the game and Gateshead's defence lost the plot. Theyve been poor of late and I expect a Southport win. Southport have only won once in their last six but theyve had a tough set of fixtures and this is their easiest game for a while and after a good draw against Luton on Saturday I think they can add to their great away form here.

[kevshat]

Re: England > Midweek > Non-league Jan 23-25

Hinckley are a strange side Kev. They clearly are capable of pulling of decent results but in general they seem to be poor and could easily go down if there are three to be relegated from the BSN.

Yeah I'm not surprised they are down there at the same time as they looked good because defensively they were all over the place in both matches and had no midfield cover for it so I can quite believe they will concede plenty. They looked good going forward though.

The player goal minute trade for me is a buy of Vinny Mukendi at 18 (Sporting Index). The Southport striker drifts in and out of form' date=' and may have a slightly wider berth tonight, but did well against Luton on Saturday and will be fancying it against a poor Lincoln defence.[/quote'] I think I'll follow you in on this one Ships. Mukendi stood out like a beacon on Saturday, not just because he's about 10 foot tall either :lol. Not just his finish but the positions he took up and the runs he made as well as a couple of backheels and stuff. If Whalley can get on the ball and supply him I think he'll notch tonight :ok.

[allthethings]

Re: England > Midweek > Non-league Jan 23-25

Worth remembering as well that Tuesday nights in the BSP this season have been goal crazy.

I know this is off your topic (and irrelevant to the Tamsworth game besides), but interestingly, the Tuesday night goal-fest hasn't extended to the games featuring massive favorites. Games involving dogs of 6.0 or better on Tuesdays this season have gone 6 over, 8 under 2.5 (4 over, 10 under 3.5). A lot of people expect goals in these mismatches, and the totals rise with the side, meaning most of these games are set at O3. You can blame mostly York (3 unders, 1 over) and Luton (3 unders) for the Tuesday power outage. Games with dogs of better than 6.0 are high-scoring in Conference this season when it's not a Tuesday: 18 overs, 5 unders.

[Darran]

Re: England > Midweek > Non-league Jan 23-25

I know this is off your topic (and irrelevant to the Tamsworth game besides), but interestingly, the Tuesday night goal-fest hasn't extended to the games featuring massive favorites. Games involving dogs of 6.0 or better on Tuesdays this season have gone 6 over, 8 under 2.5 (4 over, 10 under 3.5). A lot of people expect goals in these mismatches, and the totals rise with the side, meaning most of these games are set at O3. You can blame mostly York (3 unders, 1 over) and Luton (3 unders) for the Tuesday power outage. Games with dogs of better than 6.0 are high-scoring in Conference this season when it's not a Tuesday: 18 overs, 5 unders.

I bow down to your impressive stat knowledge.

[MPLouis]

Re: England > Midweek > Non-league Jan 23-25

I am also backing Southport at 8/5 with BetVictor against Lincoln. Im not reading too much into Lincoln coming back from 3-1 down to get a draw against Gateshead on Saturday as Gateshead were heading to a comfortable win before a sending off for each side changed the game and Gateshead's defence lost the plot. Theyve been poor of late and I expect a Southport win. Southport have only won once in their last six but theyve had a tough set of fixtures and this is their easiest game for a while and after a good draw against Luton on Saturday I think they can add to their great away form here.

I was looking at Southport here, but not convinced they are good value. They seem to have gone off the boil a bit, and I remember I wasn't impressed when I saw them lose at Cambridge recently.

[kevshat]

Re: England > Midweek > Non-league Jan 23-25

I was looking at Southport here' date=' but not convinced they are good value. They seem to have gone off the boil a bit, and I remember I wasn't impressed when I saw them lose at Cambridge recently.[/quote'] They weren't overly impressive on Saturday either. As soon as the bugs in the new PL are sorted I'll get round to updating the Luton thread with an outline on Saturday but Southport's first was literally wind assisted (as in ball was going one way and wind blew ball the other way with keeper already committed) and their 3rd took a deflection, hit the post came out and went in off the back of our goalie's legs. But for those two freak goals they wouldn't really have been in the game. I wouldn't be surprised if they won tonight because the two times I've seen Lincoln this season they've been pony but Southport didn't look brilliant to me on Saturday, or like you say against Cambridge prior to that. Whenever I've read reports on Southport Godfrey Poku has been a major influence for them but he's back with us now too.

[allthethings]

Re: England > Midweek > Non-league Jan 23-25

I bow down to your impressive stat knowledge.

Lol...not so much knowledge. I just vowed to keep track of things as the season progressed so I could detect trends and so forth. I bow down to everyone's far more impressive football knowledge here.

[Lodge]

Re: England > Midweek > Non-league Jan 23-25 Such a frustrating last minute equaliser for Barrow. I knew it was too good to be true when Grimsby scored and Lomax was sent off. Couple of surprise results out there tonight really.

[allthethings]

Re: England > Midweek > Non-league Jan 23-25

Such a frustrating last minute equaliser for Barrow. I knew it was too good to be true when Grimsby scored and Lomax was sent off. Couple of surprise results out there tonight really.

More frustrating than my Forest Green-Wrexham draw? Wrexham hit the bar in the 80-something', then failed to convert a PK at 97'. lol

[maliniok]

Re: England > Midweek > Non-league Jan 23-25

Bath DNB to beat Alfreton @ 1.75.

Bath - Alfreton 0:3 An early own goal and TWO red cards for hosts on 58 mins didn't help the matters but I guess the lesson for me here is that bottom of the table teams are there for a reason and probably shouldn't be backed.

[Darran]

Re: England > Midweek > Non-league Jan 23-25

Lol...not so much knowledge. I just vowed to keep track of things as the season progressed so I could detect trends and so forth. I bow down to everyone's far more impressive football knowledge here.

Its imprssive that you keep a track of things like that though. Sadly I ended up needing one more goal. I feel really sorry for Bath as they dont seem to have much luck at the moment and the sending off sounds harsh. Cranham then threw the ball at the ref and he got sent off to. I sort of agree with the thoughts on Southport on here but they werent that bad against Cambridge and the score line was harsh in the end and given how poor Lincoln seemed I thought they should win. Clearly I was wrong. Fair play to Kettering on getting a win tonight as well.

[Shipsupstreets]

Re: England > Midweek > Non-league Jan 23-25 Middling night on the spreads for me. Mukendi had one of his off nights and was subbed, and Alfreton didn't score their 2nd until too late, but Newport's late brace meant a decent profit on that game and a small loss overall. Great calls by sportxtipster on Fleetwood -1.5 and addpea on Ebbsfleet.

[sportxtipster]

Re: England > Midweek > Non-league Jan 23-25 Luton Town vs Mansfield Town Decent prices on Luton -1 AH, but I think this crazy team needs more attention from me tonight! I am yet to win a bet when backing them this season and hope that my luck will return to me when touching them. The Hatters are looking to reduce the difference from Wrexham, but I think mainly they want to maintain a good rhythm as the summer is announced to be a hot one. Again the "bloody" Play Offs for this side that looks doomed in the last 5 years. Mansfield lost just 4 times in last 15 games and had some good games recently against the Hatters. Is interesting that Mansfield relegated together with Luton from League One till Conference. Luton won against Hinckley 3-0 after they drawn 3-3 in Southport. Brabin will make changes to the squad, but I think will see goals here. I have the feeling that this match will be a good home win or a draw ! So, better to cover this way. At least this is my advice! Luton -1.5 AH @ 2.75 with Pinnacle Sports

[allthethings]

Re: England > Midweek > Non-league Jan 23-25 Luton at home this season have won 9 of 13 games against dogs of better than 4.00. They lost to Cambridge and Wrexham, and settled for draws against Forest Green and Telford. In games where the odds were similar to tonight's game, they went 2-1...the Cambridge loss followed an odds drop from 7.00 to 5.17, while they won 2-0 over Darlington and 5-1 over Gateshead. Mansfield twice have been dogs of around 4.00 on away, and they won at Wrexham and drew at York on New Year's Day. I have just posted a detailed explanation of what the hell I've been doing on another thread that I started in the fall: http://forum.punterslounge.com/threads/122904-England-lower-leagues-Big-Dogs/page2

[Shipsupstreets]

Re: England > Midweek > Non-league Jan 23-25 It's not one to get too moist about but VCBet are going 13/2 about Waltham Forest away at Grays Athletic in the Ryman 1 North. Grays should win - they've a more experienced side than Forest's young, eager squad - but I can't get the price this far out. Forest have been terrible since their surprising early season form, but there have been glimmers of form in the shape of a very solid performance over a decent Thamesmead last Saturday (a 2-0 home win) and a 1-0 win last time out away at Waltham Abbey. They have, though, lost loanee Courtney White, who is back at Billericay, where it's all hands the pump at the moment. Grays have a very decent side, but are feeling the pressure a little bit, with shoddy performances in the last two, losing at home to Redbridge and away at Tilbury. Grays should win, and six weeks ago this price about Forest was about fair, but whichever way I cut it now, I can't get them out this far.

[MPLouis]

Re: England > Midweek > Non-league Jan 23-25

It's not one to get too moist about but VCBet are going 13/2 about Waltham Forest away at Grays Athletic in the Ryman 1 North. Grays should win - they've a more experienced side than Forest's young' date=' eager squad - but I can't get the price this far out. Forest have been terrible since their surprising early season form, but there have been glimmers of form in the shape of a very solid performance over a decent Thamesmead last Saturday (a 2-0 home win) and a 1-0 win last time out away at Waltham Abbey. They have, though, lost loanee Courtney White, who is back at Billericay, where it's all hands the pump at the moment. Grays have a very decent side, but are feeling the pressure a little bit, with shoddy performances in the last two, losing at home to Redbridge and away at Tilbury. Grays should win, and six weeks ago this price about Forest was about fair, but whichever way I cut it now, I can't get them out this far.[/quote'] I was looking at this game too. It seems there's normally a very limited market on weekend games in this division, but weekday games like this attract a bigger market from the bookies. Looking at the two team's form so far this season: Grays at home: 7/1/4 Waltham Forest away: 3/3/6 To give a rough idea of odds based on season's form, I add the two together to get: Grays 13/4/7 So going by this figure, Grays have a 13/27 = 54% chance of winning. On this basis the odds for a Grays home win should be 1.85 (1/.54 = 1.85) not 1.33 as they are. Grays and Waltham Forest have both been in poor form in their last few games. I quite like the look of Bet365's Waltham Forest +0.5 @ 2.75. These odds imply a 36% chance of an away win or draw (1/2.75 = 0.36), but I think there's more like a 46% chance, so it's good value.

[Darran]

Re: England > Midweek > Non-league Jan 23-25 The reason why there are more games at that level priced up during the week is because betting in play is available on those games so if there are any on a Monday, Wednesday or a quiet Tuesday then you get odds on them.

[MPLouis]

Re: England > Midweek > Non-league Jan 23-25

The reason why there are more games at that level priced up during the week is because betting in play is available on those games so if there are any on a Monday' date=' Wednesday or a quiet Tuesday then you get odds on them.[/quote'] Although this one wasn't featured in-play on Bet365

[MPLouis]

Re: England > Midweek > Non-league Jan 23-25

I was looking at this game too. It seems there's normally a very limited market on weekend games in this division, but weekday games like this attract a bigger market from the bookies. Looking at the two team's form so far this season: Grays at home: 7/1/4 Waltham Forest away: 3/3/6 To give a rough idea of odds based on season's form, I add the two together to get: Grays 13/4/7 So going by this figure, Grays have a 13/27 = 54% chance of winning. On this basis the odds for a Grays home win should be 1.85 (1/.54 = 1.85) not 1.33 as they are. Grays and Waltham Forest have both been in poor form in their last few games. I quite like the look of Bet365's Waltham Forest +0.5 @ 2.75. These odds imply a 36% chance of an away win or draw (1/2.75 = 0.36), but I think there's more like a 46% chance, so it's good value.

Result: 0-0 http://www.nonleaguelive.com/match/754 Bet won :)

[MPLouis]

Re: England > Midweek > Non-league Jan 23-25

Luton at home this season have won 9 of 13 games against dogs of better than 4.00. They lost to Cambridge and Wrexham, and settled for draws against Forest Green and Telford. In games where the odds were similar to tonight's game, they went 2-1...the Cambridge loss followed an odds drop from 7.00 to 5.17, while they won 2-0 over Darlington and 5-1 over Gateshead. Mansfield twice have been dogs of around 4.00 on away, and they won at Wrexham and drew at York on New Year's Day. I have just posted a detailed explanation of what the hell I've been doing on another thread that I started in the fall: http://forum.punterslounge.com/threads/122904-England-lower-leagues-Big-Dogs/page2

Result: 0-0 allthethings, I had a look at your Big Dogs thread but couldn't understand it. I do think the price on Luton was a bit too short tonight.

[allthethings]

Re: England > Midweek > Non-league Jan 23-25

Result: 0-0 allthethings, I had a look at your Big Dogs thread but couldn't understand it. I do think the price on Luton was a bit too short tonight.

Playing on dogs of 4.00 to 4.99 in Premier, Championship, and Leagues One and Two to win. Playing on the draw on Conference games where the dog is 4.00 to 5.99. Playing on the draw in League One and Two games where the dog is 5.00 to 5.99. There's a lot of posts there that show a gradual shift in my plays between October and now, based on past results and my recognizing where the profit lies.