Copa Toyota Libertadores > 2012

[Nervous Anorak]

Re: Copa Toyota Libertadores 2012 Just sent you a PM M/neck, I'm now able to do so as have 50+ posts. Thanks, Martin

[Nervous Anorak]

Re: Copa Toyota Libertadores 2012 FT Godoy 1-0 Penarol There's your Unders and Penarol didn't let us down by having a player sent off at 60 mins, 7 mins after going behind. Seems they could be bad losers. Was the sending off justified ?

[Batig0l]

Re: Copa Toyota Libertadores 2012 I had originally laid Godoy Cruz and all was looking well until that goal. Cashed out of my lay after the red card, but then lumped on under 2.5 goals. In the end I made a very very small profit. Just glad I came out with my money back! Penarol should have had a penalty at the 33rd minute mark.

[MNC]

Re: Copa Toyota Libertadores 2012 Pretty good game, I think anyone who watched it will agree. Not deserved the 1-0, Peñarol played goot enough to get at least a draw and that's why you probably laid it.

[Batig0l]

Re: Copa Toyota Libertadores 2012 Godoy Cruz definitely were lucky on a few occasions. Once or twice Penarol could have definitely scored with better finishing. The goal however was a good move and the strike was fantastic. I stopped watching then for 10 minutes and went to have a think about what to do, as I thought Penarol might get a goal back, but once there was a red card, I knew to cash out and put my money on unders. As I already said, I can't understand how a penalty was not given in the 33rd minute - but that's football!

[MNC]

Re: Copa Toyota Libertadores 2012

Godoy Cruz definitely were lucky on a few occasions. Once or twice Penarol could have definitely scored with better finishing. The goal however was a good move and the strike was fantastic. I stopped watching then for 10 minutes and went to have a think about what to do, as I thought Penarol might get a goal back, but once there was a red card, I knew to cash out and put my money on unders. As I already said, I can't understand how a penalty was not given in the 33rd minute - but that's football!

Godoy Cruz also had some big chances missed, especially one by Ramirez (a very good striker despite what he did there) where he missed in front of the goal with no goalkeeper. This was similar to Lanus's game yesterday, very open from both sides. See you in the Argentina thread this weekend, I will post a "surprise" free preview for sure, I have to decide which one :)

[Bagzi]

Re: Copa Toyota Libertadores 2012 [TABLE=class: couponTable, width: 617]

[TR] [TH=class: firstColumn, align: left]Tuesday 21 February 2012[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]CA Peñarol v Atlético Nacional (22:15 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.88[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.5[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]5[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]101.76 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn, align: left]Wednesday 22 February 2012[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Arsenal de Sarandi v Zamora FC (00:30 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.42[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4.5[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]8.5[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]104.41 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Club Bolívar v Unión Española (00:30 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.53[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4.1[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]7[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]103.89 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Cruz Azul v Deportivo Táchira (02:45 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.33[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]5.2[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]12.5[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]102.42 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Universidad de Chile v Godoy Cruz de Mendoza (22:45 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.83[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.4[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4.45[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]106.53 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn, align: left]Thursday 23 February 2012[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Vélez Sársfield v Guadalajara-MEX (01:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.54[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.84[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]5.47[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]109.26 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Club Olimpia v CA Lanus (22:30 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.35[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.2[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.9[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]108.29 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn, align: left]Friday 24 February 2012[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]The Strongest v Juan Aurich (00:45 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.56[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.65[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]7[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]105.79 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Universidad Católica v Junior (00:45 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.57[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.67[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]5.75[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]108.28 %[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[Bagzi]

Re: Copa Toyota Libertadores 2012 [TABLE=class: couponTable, width: 617]

[TR] [TH=class: firstColumn, align: left]Tuesday 6 March 2012[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]CA Peñarol v Universidad de Chile (22:30 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.5[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.35[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.66[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]107.44 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn, align: left]Wednesday 7 March 2012[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Unión Española v Universidad Católica (00:45 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.3[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.3[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.75[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]110.14 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Vasco da Gama v Alianza Lima (00:45 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.24[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]5.75[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]13[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]105.73 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Santos FC v SC Internacional (22:45 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.35[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.6[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]107.63 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]SD Quito v Vélez Sársfield (22:45 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.15[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.25[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.05[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]110.07 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn, align: left]Thursday 8 March 2012[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Boca Juniors v Fluminense FC (01:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.05[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.3[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.75[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]105.75 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]SC Corinthians v Club Nacional Asuncion (01:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.2[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4.5[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]9[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]116.67 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Flamengo v Club Sport Emelec (22:30 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.3[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4.5[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]9[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]110.26 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn, align: left]Friday 9 March 2012[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Godoy Cruz de Mendoza v Atlético Nacional (00:45 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.25[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.25[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.85[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]110.30 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Junior v Club Bolívar (03:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.3[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4.5[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]9[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]110.26 %[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[Nervous Anorak]

Re: Copa Toyota Libertadores 2012 Flamengo v Emelec Someone is finally interested here ! This pretty much looks like a home win here, but by what margin ? Flamengo has a strong home record despite losing their last one, as the odds suggest, so I think the oweness lies more with how many Emelec could concede here. Emelec league Away form is unimpressive but having said that they've only been beaten by more than two goals Away twice in exactly two years to date, both 5-0. Only 1 of their last 13 games anywhere has been Over 3.5 goals Only 2 of their last 16 aways have been Over 3.5 Anyone betting Under/Over 2.5 on this game is either brave or foolish ! It's right on the borderline for me. My reading of the stats would suggest 2-0 or 2-1, not having a good personal knowledge of the players in either team makes it slightly difficult for me to offer a more concise view but the match is being screened live by many betting sites so it'll be easy enough to act after forming any further opinions. Solid stake on the Under 3.5 for me @ 1.45 Betfair Based on Flamengo's last 10 Homes this has an 80% win chance (One of the two Over 3.5's was against alot lower division team) Based on Emelec's last 16 Aways this has an 87% win chance EDIT : Full Time Result 1-0 :ok

[martin239]

Re: Copa Toyota Libertadores 2012

Flamengo v Emelec Someone is finally interested here ! This pretty much looks like a home win here, but by what margin ? Flamengo has a strong home record despite losing their last one, as the odds suggest, so I think the oweness lies more with how many Emelec could concede here. Emelec league Away form is unimpressive but having said that they've only been beaten by more than two goals Away twice in exactly two years to date, both 5-0. Only 1 of their last 13 games anywhere has been Over 3.5 goals Only 2 of their last 16 aways have been Over 3.5 Anyone betting Under/Over 2.5 on this game is either brave or foolish ! It's right on the borderline for me. My reading of the stats would suggest 2-0 or 2-1, not having a good personal knowledge of the players in either team makes it slightly difficult for me to offer a more concise view but the match is being screened live by many betting sites so it'll be easy enough to act after forming any further opinions. Solid stake on the Under 3.5 for me @ 1.45 Betfair Based on Flamengo's last 10 Homes this has an 80% win chance (One of the two Over 3.5's was against alot lower division team) Based on Emelec's last 16 Aways this has an 87% win chance

If you're confident on a Flamengo win and under 3.5 goals, you can dutch 1-0 (7.4), 2-0 (7.2) and 2-1 (9.2) at 3.6 on Betfair.

[LLMB0611]

Re: Copa Toyota Libertadores 2012 since i don't know much about some south american teams i usually like to wait to bet live in play when i see how the game's goes...

[Nervous Anorak]

Re: Copa Toyota Libertadores 2012 Mart, thanks for that. I'm leaving the option of the 0-0 (unlikely) or 1-1 intact by just sticking with the Under 3.5, taking the simplest route. I can't afford to complicate matters tonight, first bet after almost two months out due to funds tied up in biz. Got odds of 1.48 on the U 3.5 Betfair

[Nervous Anorak]

Re: Copa Toyota Libertadores 2012 What a pile of crap that first half was. I was just about to trade out my Under 3.5 as the sending off happened because I can't face sitting through anymore of this rubbish. I'll get shot of it soon as I'm at 70% of the maximum win and I got better things to occupy myself with. Flamengo typify the dross we saw last season in the Brazilian league, did anyone watching that first half see anything of interest ? It's no surprise Emelec had two subs first half through injury having seen what I guess could be mildly described as the "stretching" excercises their no.6 was doing on the touchline. If thats the movements their physio prescribes then its no wonder they're dropping fast. Sending off looked harsh, it's dire isn't it ? EDIT : Emelec's goal keeper looked too dodgy, I spotted a few occasions in the first half when he looked badly out of position. Flamengo should have scored a second soon after their first, from his terrible save pushed straight in to the path of two on-rushing forwards. At that point I traded out as I had no faith in him. Switched the match off soon after as it wasn't getting any more enjoyable.

[MNC]

Re: Copa Toyota Libertadores 2012 Too bad you didn't catch Godoy Cruz 4 - Atl. Nacional 4...what a game !! I was on the Colombians DNB @ 2.30...they were winning 1-2, 2-3 and then 3-4 until the last minute of the game... :(

[Nervous Anorak]

Re: Copa Toyota Libertadores 2012 I know, I was kicking myself for not watching the 4-4 match. To tell you the truth when I saw it listed as National I was thinking International, the Brazilian lot and I really don't enjoy Brazilian teams in most games. It was only when I saw the game go to 2-2 on the Betfair console I noticed it was National "Medellin" from Colombia who were fantastic in a league game I saw last season. I'll catch the highlights on Youtube. Was there no chance for you to trade out so you had a level win on the draw or away near the end ?

[Nervous Anorak]

Re: Copa Toyota Libertadores 2012 highlights of Godoy 4 - Athl Nac Medellin 4 a mixture of terrible goal keeping, woeful defending, and some pure brilliance ! goal 5 the pick of the bunch for me http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bloLGOQBhtk

[Bagzi]

Re: Copa Toyota Libertadores 2012 [TABLE=class: couponTable, width: 617]

[TR] [TH=class: firstColumn, align: left]Tuesday 13 March 2012[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]CA Lanus v Club Sport Emelec (22:45 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.6[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4.33[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]8[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]98.08 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Club Nacional Asuncion v Deportivo Táchira (22:45 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.55[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4.2[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]8[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]100.83 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn, align: left]Wednesday 14 March 2012[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Alianza Lima v Club Nacional (01:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.2[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.4[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.5[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]100.66 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]SC Internacional v The Strongest (01:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.2[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]7.5[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]23[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]101.01 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Guadalajara-MEX v Defensor Sporting (03:15 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.06[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.4[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4.5[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]100.18 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Arsenal de Sarandi v Boca Juniors (22:45 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.9[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.3[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.2[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]101.40 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Fluminense FC v Zamora FC (22:45 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.17[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]7.5[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]21[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]103.57 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn, align: left]Thursday 15 March 2012[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Club Libertad Asunción v Vasco da Gama (01:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.58[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.3[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.05[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]101.85 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Cruz Azul v SC Corinthians (01:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.2[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.4[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.7[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]101.89 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Juan Aurich v Santos FC (22:45 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]5.6[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.85[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.75[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]100.97 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn, align: left]Friday 16 March 2012[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Flamengo v Club Olimpia (01:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.54[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4.33[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]8[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]100.51 %[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[Nervous Anorak]

Re: Copa Toyota Libertadores 2012 Lanus - Emelec : Half Time Report I'm on Under 3.5 on this @ 1.305 Even before the sending off in the 40th minute this was looking a Home win all the way. Decent game, excellent goalkeeping both ends, it's amazing Lanus haven't scored yet, hit the post and bar within the space of 3 minutes and numerous crosses they just havent managed to get on the end of, or blocked shots. This is likely to be a long 45 mins in the sec half for Emelec. Lanus need to win this and it looks as if they will. Half Time 0-0 Full Time 1-0 Bet Won :ok

[Nervous Anorak]

Re: Copa Toyota Libertadores 2012 Lonely in here tonight, surely someone else watches and bets this tournament and has something to offer ? Must say though, very little money changes hands on some of these games on Betfair before kick off, although once the games are up and running usually enough activity. The Lanus game ended 1-0, this match highlighted how wasteful Lanus are, numerous crosses fired in several yards from any potential target, having watched Velez last night, if anyone told me that they and Lanus play in the same league I'd be shocked if I didnt already know, absolutely no camparison. I'm surprised Lanus signed the lumbering dinosaur that is Pavone, having seen this guy playing for River many times, he is so average I can not understand why anyone would want him. I was going to post something up asking why the odds on Under 4.5 and 5.5 were so high on the Internacional v Strongest game, but I found out when Int'l scored 2 in the first 7 minutes ! I had placed a high stake on the Under 5.5 @ 1.17 but decided for safety to trade out level at half time whilst still 2-0. I expected possibly 3 goals in the game, Int'l just scored again so it's 4-0 now with 74 mins gone. Still, to need 6 goals in the game to lose there was always a large element of safety there. The Strongest are not. If anyone else is reading this, say hi and let me know what you placed tonight in this tournament.

[MNC]

Re: Copa Toyota Libertadores 2012 Hi. No bets today on the competition.

[Nervous Anorak]

Re: Copa Toyota Libertadores 2012 I'm damned glad I traded out my Under 5.5 early, saved alot of anxiety, final score in Internacional v The Strongest 5-0 ;)

[c0ld22]

Re: Copa Toyota Libertadores 2012 Have any of you some information about Juan Aurich? Santos is going there for a win, they have the full squad available from what I read and I'm thinking on -1 AH at 2.250 at the moment with bet365. But I never saw Juan Aurich play and I don't know how strong their are. Can Satons win and win good ?

[Nervous Anorak]

Re: Copa Toyota Libertadores 2012 Hi cold, the santos game is on thursday night, so we got 24 hours yet. i'll check out the stats later tonight and see if I can find some highlights of J.A. recent matches.

[c0ld22]

Re: Copa Toyota Libertadores 2012 thanks, I wanted to bet earlier because I'm concerned that the odds will drop on Santos I watched the highlights of Juan Aurich against Inter and The Strongest and they look sluggish in my opinion, they can't cope with Neymar's pace Santos have the motivation and the quality to take the 3 points which they need, at the moment beeing third in their group

[Nervous Anorak]

Re: Copa Toyota Libertadores 2012 Juan Aurich v Santos (Thursday Night) I've been working overtime on this one and come up with some incredible stats. Juan Aurich are from Peru, they have possibly the most incredible Home goal scoring record in world football, it could be a record ? I counted this : Since 2 Novemeber 2008, they have played 73 Home games in all comps' and only failed to score in 3 of them ! The ones they failed to socre in were 0-0 a play off type match in December, another 0-0 along time ago, and a 0-2 losss to Argentinian team Estudiantes in the Copa Lib'. Only 2 of their last 10 Homes were Under 2.5, one of these was the 0-0 mentioned above. Popular recent Home results are 2-1 or 1-2 Santos, don't be fooled by their recent Away record which looks great until you realise that those games are in The Campeonato Paulista de Futebol Profissional da Primeira Divisão - Série A1, simply known as the Campeonato Paulista. It's The top-flight professional football league in the Brazilian state of São Paulo. The league is contested between 20 clubs and typically lasts from January to April. Many of the teams are from the second division and lower, so its not the same as the Brasilero (Premier) covering the whole of Brazil. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Campeonato_Paulista Santos Away form was actually unimpressive in the main season. Even including the Paulista, Santos have conceded in every game in the last 23 Aways with one exception, that was against Guarani who were a midtable 2nd divsion team last season. Santos have scored in 18 of their last 20 Aways in all comps'. As you may be aware from some of my other tips, I like to bet Under 3.5 or 4.5, high stakes with low risk, but this game looks way too risky to me for both of those markets as I think there will be a high chance of 3 goals, possibly 4. U 3.5 @ 1.40 or U 4.5 @ 1.16 (Betfair prices) are poor value for high risk, U 5.5 @ 1.06 forget it. I don't bet the 2.5 line (except Argentina) but for those that do I think odds of even money on Betfair at the moment for the Overs is good value. Which way will the game go ? JA need a win as they have no points from two games, Santos have 3 points from two, but importantly they lost at The Strongest in Bolivia 2-1 and me having seen Strongest lose 5-0 last night at Internacional (Brazil) I have to say they were poor, as suggested by the result ! To me the immediately obvious value here lies with Both Teams To Score, which is near 100% chance if both teams individual form continues. Don't forget to cover the 0-0 as protection, it could happen, I know from past experiences only too well ! Back to cOLD's question regarding -1.00 Asian Handicap, I definately would not recommend that bet myself and I can't see any "value" in it at all. I think the chances of Santos winning by 2 goals are low as I expect both teams to score anyhow. I think the game will be settled by a one goal margin 2-1, 1-2, or possibly a draw. [TABLE=class: wikitable]

[TR] [TH]- 1.00 [/TH] [TD]Win by 2+ [/TD] [TD]Win [/TD] [TH][/TH] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Win by 1 [/TD] [TD]Stake refund [/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Draw [/TD] [TD]Lose [/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Lose [/TD] [TD]Lose [/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] EDIT : The stat for JA last 73 Home fixtures seemed so extreme I just checked it again, it's correct !

[c0ld22]

Re: Copa Toyota Libertadores 2012 it helps alot and I'm really sorry for taking your time my bet will be both teams to score, but I still think Santos will win, I saw their match against The Strongest(who are very strong at home becouse of the altitude I guess) and Santos really deserved to win, they missed so many chances...it was such a crazy game.. thanks once again and I hope Santos will win 2-1

[Nervous Anorak]

Re: Copa Toyota Libertadores 2012 You're welcome my friend. Here's tonights tip : Cruz Azul - Corinthians I'm sorry to start my posting this way but having seen Corinthians three times last season, the fact they won the Brasilero says more about Brazilian football in 2011 than it does about Corinthians. In two of the three games I saw of them they were absolute shit of no entertainment value whatsoever, none more so than in their last game of the season the staggeringly woeful 0-0 home draw with Palmeiras. Based on that, I'm hoping they lose tonight, but what are the probabilities ? Having done the stats to be honest I think theres a good chance this game will finish 0-0. Cruz Azul Since March 2009 theyve scored in almost every home game, theres been 6 x 0-0 in that period. Corinthians Only 3 of their last 17 Away games have been Over 2.5's, those were 2 x 3 goals and 1 x 4 goals. Their last Away Over 4.5 goals game was the first time I saw them, Avai where they lost 3-2, however that was partly due to a completely no contact anal penalty given just before half time, tbh it looked rigged to me, very suspicious call by an arsehole referee who killed the game. Corinthians scored a wicked goal in last minute so even by then you could have traded out an Under 4.5 safely. Corinthians scoring rate is laughable for a title winning team, on Away trips since mid August 2011 they have only scored more than one goal in a match on 4 occasions, thats 3 x 2 goals of which only one game was with a team in the same league as them, the other game was a 2-3 win against a basement team. I believe the result of this match could hinge on Corinthians negativity, if theres a winner I don't imagine it will be by more than one goal. Expected scorelines : 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, or 1-1 I'm betting Under 3.5 @ 1.32, plus a small stake on the 0-0

[Nervous Anorak]

Re: Copa Toyota Libertadores 2012

You're welcome my friend. Here's tonights tip : Cruz Azul - Corinthians Having done the stats to be honest I think theres a good chance this game will finish 0-0. Cruz Azul Since March 2009 theyve scored in almost every home game, theres been 6 x 0-0 in that period. Corinthians Only 3 of their last 17 Away games have been Over 2.5's, those were 2 x 3 goals and 1 x 4 goals. Their last Away Over 4.5 goals game was the first time I saw them, Avai where they lost 3-2, however that was partly due to a completely no contact anal penalty given just before half time, tbh it looked rigged to me, very suspicious call by an arsehole referee who killed the game. Corinthians scored a wicked goal in last minute so even by then you could have traded out an Under 4.5 safely. Corinthians scoring rate is laughable for a title winning team, on Away trips since mid August 2011 they have only scored more than 2 goals in a match on 4 occasions, thats 3 x 2 goals of which only one game was with a team in the same league as them, the other game was a 2-3 win against a basement team. Expected scorelines : 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, or 1-1 I'm betting Under 3.5 @ 1.32, plus a small stake on the 0-0

Full Time 0-0 Wow, pleased with that, it pays to study hard, this goes down as one of my recent favourite wins ! This game was excellent, two very well matched teams and except for one challenge in the first minute it was played in excellent spirit. Corinthians were in control of this game for long periods but their shooting was absolutely woeful, otherwise they could easily have won this given their "though shall not pass" defence. If this game was played at Twickenham, Corinthians would have racked up some collection of goals by half time, and a couple of misses they had in the second half were staggering. Cruz Azul had very few chances, there was just no way through that Corinthians defence. Cruz Azuls calmness passing out of defence even under pressure was breathtaking. Only one booking in the match and that took until around 60 mins. Traded the 0-0 out at 85 mins, there was almost 2 goals after that. 45.3 % Total ROI :ok

[lamas1984]

Re: Copa Toyota Libertadores 2012 Juan Aurich vs Santos Back Santos 1.9@ :clap Neymar will play?

[lamas1984]

Re: Copa Toyota Libertadores 2012 Yes it will play, the only thing it's the condition of the pitch...