England > Weekend > Barclays Premier League > 21-22 January

[Spooner]

	Saturday 21 January 2012	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
	Norwich City v Chelsea (12:45 GMT)	6	4.1	1.68	100.58 %
	Everton v Blackburn Rovers (15:00 GMT)	1.57	4.1	7.6	101.18 %
	Fulham v Newcastle United (15:00 GMT)	2.1	3.45	4.1	100.99 %
	Queens Park Rangers v Wigan Athletic (15:00 GMT)	2.02	3.55	4.2	101.48 %
	Stoke City v West Bromwich Albion (15:00 GMT)	1.97	3.6	4.4	101.27 %
	Sunderland v Swansea City (15:00 GMT)	1.88	3.55	5	101.36 %
	Wolverhampton Wanderers v Aston Villa (15:00 GMT)	2.64	3.4	2.98	100.85 %
	Bolton Wanderers v Liverpool (17:30 GMT)	6.4	3.85	1.7	100.42 %
	Sunday 22 January 2012	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
	Manchester City v Tottenham Hotspur (13:30 GMT)	1.92	3.85	4.4	100.78 %
	Arsenal v Manchester United (16:00 GMT)	2.94	3.5	2.62	100.68 %

[Mustafa]

Re: England > Weekend > Barclays Premier League > 21-22 January Odds on Blackburn look good. They are in a good form after beating Man.United at Old Trafford while Everton are performing poorly. So guess Blackburn on a handicap or even straight win might be a good option. Will consider Arsenal later this week because I expect the odds on them to improve and be more than 3.00.

[H1]

Re: England > Weekend > Barclays Premier League > 21-22 January A good price on a solid Stoke side, against a team whose morale is low atm, after 4 winless games. I wouldn't like to jump to any far reaching conclusions, but Hodgson sounded tired and out of faith after Norwich game. Elsewhere also a good price on Norwich. Chelsea should have Cahill already on Sat, but we do not know atm whether he'll feature or not. And with these defenders... I think Hansen has a point when he laughs off Bosingwa's and Luiz's performances in the MOTD. Chelsea let Sunderland create so many chances last time, that I fear for them when they travel to Norwich, who have been a kind of a surprise to date. Certainly Chelsea will not keep a clean sheet. Stoke -0.5 @1.925 Norwich goals >1.5 @3.4 with bet365

[RedDevil92]

Re: England > Weekend > Barclays Premier League > 21-22 January

Odds on Blackburn look good. They are in a good form after beating Man.United at Old Trafford while Everton are performing poorly. So guess Blackburn on a handicap or even straight win might be a good option. Will consider Arsenal later this week because I expect the odds on them to improve and be more than 3.00.

Yakubu is suspended, don't forget this important fact:ok

[Mustafa]

Re: England > Weekend > Barclays Premier League > 21-22 January

Yakubu is suspended' date=' don't forget this important fact:ok[/quote'] Yes that's important. Prior to placing any bets I was planing to check for injuries and suspensions, but thanks for the tip. However, Blackburn managed to beat Fulham without Yakubu and with 10 men. So maybe backing them to win might be too optimistic but draw is very likely in my opinion.

[Kiddo112]

Re: England > Weekend > Barclays Premier League > 21-22 January

Yes that's important. Prior to placing any bets I was planing to check for injuries and suspensions' date=' but thanks for the tip. However, Blackburn managed to beat Fulham without Yakubu and with 10 men. So maybe backing them to win might be too optimistic but draw is very likely in my opinion.[/quote'] Agree with Mustafa that Blackburn carry a threat without Yakubu. Although would much rather he be involved, they did manage 3 against Fulham without him. With the 10 men as well, it did show that they are potent on the break, and with them being away next weekend, it is reasonable to expect them to be playing in a similar fashion. Of course the Samba situation is a concern, and it is hard to envisage him lining up on Saturday. However they do appear to have contained Fulham quite well without him at the weekend. Given that Everton are really struggling for goals, and will continue to be down to the bare bones at the back, then I don't think it would be a massive shock to see Blackburn get a result. I took these bets before the weekend fixtures (posted them on last weekend's thread): 1pt Blackburn DNB @5.625 - Bwin (combination of 7.5 win & 4.0 draw) 3pts Blackburn over 0.5gls @1.83 - Boylesports :hope

[Mustafa]

Re: England > Weekend > Barclays Premier League > 21-22 January Plus Everton miss a number of their important players. Blackburn DNB @ 5.00 (2 units) Bet365

[Kiddo112]

Re: England > Weekend > Barclays Premier League > 21-22 January

Plus Everton miss a number of their important players. Blackburn DNB @ 5.00 (2 units) Bet365

You can get 5.25 on the +0AH with Bet365 Mustafa.

[Lodge]

Re: England > Weekend > Barclays Premier League > 21-22 January Hi guys, spent abit of time away from the football lately and I’m pretty glad with some of the results of late! Anyway thought I’d give me early thoughts on my sides chances at City next weekend.

ManCityand Spurs looks to be every bit as important as there Champions League decider at the Etihad just under 2 years ago. City go into the game on top of the league but recent performances suggest the race for the title is still extremely open. As for Spurs if they still wish to have title ambitions after this weekend they will at least need to come away with a point, maybe all 3. However our strong form over the Christmas period is encouraging and I think we have been slightly lucky playing City while the African Cup of Nations is in full flow and Vincent Kompany is in the middle of a 4 game ban.

st XI bar, Ledley King, however with the form Kaboul and Dawson in it would be hard to split them up anyway. Our only major absentee in my opinion is Adebayor, who cannot play due to the terms of his loan deal, he will be a big miss as I think he works really hard up top on his own, I’m certainly hoping Jermaine Defoe can step in and make a case to be starting more regularly though. So in terms of teams news I think City’ absences are slightly more important than Spurs. As for the game itself, I’m expecting a low scoring encounter and Bet365 go 2.075 for Under 2.5 Goal line which I believe is reasonable value. Redknapp said after our 5-1 defeat in the return fixture we would never lose in that fashion again, so far he’s been right and I don’t expect it to change this weekend. Both sides play some brilliant attacking football however in there last couple of games they have seemed to fall short in terms of scoring goals. Aguero and Dzeko didn’t look as threatening last night as they did 3-4 months ago and with Ade out Spurs may have to look so of the midfielders for a goal.

[NapalmDeath]

Re: England > Weekend > Barclays Premier League > 21-22 January Massive value on Newcastle this coming weekend @ 4.2 Betfair As influential as Demba Ba is, he is not the whole team *cough* RVP *cough* :lol. The Magpies defence is still fairly top-notch, so I don't see Fulham posing much threat in that respect (especially after last weeks performance). Newcastle potentially have Cabaye out through injury, too, which won't be good. I quite fancy either Newcastle DNB, +0AH, or X2. I shall wait a bit longer to place any of these bets since Newcastle's odds seem to be drifting. I have placed an early punt, though: Norwich @ 6.0 Blackburn @ 7.0 Newcastle @ 3.8 Man Utd @ 2.6 Spurs @ 4.0 5x4folds @ 0.15 units @ various odds 1x5fold @ 0.16 units @ 1659.84 :hope I'm slightly annoyed that Newcastle have drifted from 3.8 to 4.0 on Bet365 (my only bookies atm). Some of my other odds would have shortened, though :P More to come!

[Mustafa]

Re: England > Weekend > Barclays Premier League > 21-22 January

You can get 5.25 on the +0AH with Bet365 Mustafa.

Can't believe I made the same mistake again. Forgot to look at asian markets at odds comparison website.

[ThusPrider]

Re: England > Weekend > Barclays Premier League > 21-22 January Bit off topic but I see you're from Wroclaw, H1. Ive got a good friend that comes from Poland and he is a big fan of Slask Wroclaw!

Can't believe I made the same mistake again. Forgot to look at asian markets at odds comparison website.

Odds do drift even days before the game! Odds could have changed by then, though you should still have a better look before placing bets, I refresh my Pinnacle every now and then and try to get every decimal out of the odds as its quite volatile. Eg if its been on 1.985, id wait and sometimes it'll drift to 1.990, where ill snap their hand off. Though sometimes the odds come down but if you leave youself enough time they always shake around abit and you can always find a better price than the best price at the moment you saw these odds.

[Mustafa]

Re: England > Weekend > Barclays Premier League > 21-22 January

Odds do drift even days before the game! Odds could have changed by then' date=' though you should still have a better look before placing bets, I refresh my Pinnacle every now and then and try to get every decimal out of the odds as its quite volatile. Eg if its been on 1.985, id wait and sometimes it'll drift to 1.990, where ill snap their hand off. Though sometimes the odds come down but if you leave youself enough time they always shake around abit and you can always find a better price than the best price at the moment you saw these odds.[/quote'] But since my stakes are not large it wouldn't make a big difference between 1.90 and 2.00, unless your stake is 100 euro or more.

[pg_yid]

Re: England > Weekend > Barclays Premier League > 21-22 January

But since my stakes are not large it wouldn't make a big difference between 1.90 and 2.00' date=' unless your stake is 100 euro or more.[/quote'] In the long term I think it would, even with small stakes. Look how many bets you've won and lost in the past year. Imagine for every bet you've won, that you won £1 more each time. I would imagine that if this were the case, your profit would be a lot larger as a % of your bank. Therefore I think that 0.1 difference is actually quite important, whatever your stakes.

[pg_yid]

Re: England > Weekend > Barclays Premier League > 21-22 January ^ The above is presuming, hypothetically, stakes of £/€10 per bet.

[Mustafa]

Re: England > Weekend > Barclays Premier League > 21-22 January

^ The above is presuming' date=' hypothetically, stakes of £/€10 per bet.[/quote'] It's not. Because last season I did not have any strategy or discipline and my bets differed from 1 to 20 euros and I ended losing 100 euro at the end of the season. So this time I started trying units system 1-5 with 1 unit = 1 euro. If at the end of the season I can see that following this system and discipline made me a decent profit then I will increase my unit price from next season. But thanks for the advice :ok

[Mindfulness]

Re: England > Weekend > Barclays Premier League > 21-22 January

Massive value on Newcastle this coming weekend @ 4.2 Betfair As influential as Demba Ba is, he is not the whole team *cough* RVP *cough* :lol. The Magpies defence is still fairly top-notch, so I don't see Fulham posing much threat in that respect (especially after last weeks performance). Newcastle potentially have Cabaye out through injury, too, which won't be good. I quite fancy either Newcastle DNB, +0AH, or X2. I shall wait a bit longer to place any of these bets since Newcastle's odds seem to be drifting. I have placed an early punt, though: Norwich @ 6.0 Blackburn @ 7.0 Newcastle @ 3.8 Man Utd @ 2.6 Spurs @ 4.0 5x4folds @ 0.15 units @ various odds 1x5fold @ 0.16 units @ 1659.84 :hope I'm slightly annoyed that Newcastle have drifted from 3.8 to 4.0 on Bet365 (my only bookies atm). Some of my other odds would have shortened, though :P More to come!

I think Cheick Tiote is also unavailable as he is with Ba at the ACN (please correct if I am mistaken). So if Cabaye is now out also that's 3 of Newcastle's most important players smoked. If they are all missing I would never bet on Newcastle to win this game, even with a DNB as I feel I would just be praying to get my stake refunded at best.

[Pay Day]

Re: England > Weekend > Barclays Premier League > 21-22 January Initial thoughts are betting on these 2 games I think Norwich are overpriced at home to Chelsea. Norwich are on a good run of form, scoring plenty of goals (albeit usually conceding also). Chelsea have really struggled this past month and were lucky to keep a clean sheet at home to Sunderland. The game before they were lucky also to beat Wolves. Although they signed Cahill I really doubt his step up to a supposed top 4 achieving side; he has had an awful year with Bolton. Liverpool look overpriced too. They enjoy playing away from home as home teams are inclined to attack a bit more. Even with Suarez they are incapable of breaking teams down to inferior home teams on a regular basis. But Bolton probably won't have signed a defender to replace Cahill so they would line up with Wheater and Knight :puke at centre back. I expect Bellamy to start having only played 20 mins against Stoke who can cause problems for Bolton and in addition Gerrard most likely dominating the centre. They are very sturdy at the back so I think a comfortable Liverpool victory awaits.

[Mustafa]

Re: England > Weekend > Barclays Premier League > 21-22 January

Liverpool look overpriced too. They enjoy playing away from home as home teams are inclined to attack a bit more. Even with Suarez they are incapable of breaking teams down to inferior home teams on a regular basis. But Bolton probably won't have signed a defender to replace Cahill so they would line up with Wheater and Knight :puke at centre back. I expect Bellamy to start having only played 20 mins against Stoke who can cause problems for Bolton and in addition Gerrard most likely dominating the centre. They are very sturdy at the back so I think a comfortable Liverpool victory awaits.

Will just add that Liverpool have beaten Bolton in all of the last 10 games between these two sides.

[statsonthegame]

Re: England > Weekend > Barclays Premier League > 21-22 January Stoke v West Brom Predict: under 2.5 goals 1.8 @ bet365 Stoke have managed 5 goals in 7 games versus mid-table sides and have averaged 2.13 goals over their last 8 games. West Brom similarly have averaged 2.25 goals over the same period, scoring 8 goals in their last 8 games. Stoke have had the least amount of shots on target this season and West Brom have the 18th best attack. Neither defence is particularly poor ranking 12th for West Brom and 14th for Stoke. Neither side favours holding possesion with Stoke averaging 47% at home and West Brom 45% away. Stoke are pretty tight at home and have their less effective defensive displays away. At the Britannia Stadium I expect either side to be looking to nick a goal and then try and hold on to their lead repelling the direct play of the oppisition.

[Rayno]

Re: England > Weekend > Barclays Premier League > 21-22 January

I think Cheick Tiote is also unavailable as he is with Ba at the ACN (please correct if I am mistaken). So if Cabaye is now out also that's 3 of Newcastle's most important players smoked. If they are all missing I would never bet on Newcastle to win this game' date=' even with a DNB as I feel I would just be praying to get my stake refunded at best.[/quote'] Fulham has a good home record too ! Its hard to win at Fulham not taking man utd trashing into account .

[RedDevil92]

Re: England > Weekend > Barclays Premier League > 21-22 January Tempted to take both to score at Norwich-Chelsea. Norwich conceded in every match while their offense is good. Chelsea didn't concede in just a couple of games. Despite signing Cahill I doubt that the defense wil be completely improved.

[CiderHead]

Re: England > Weekend > Barclays Premier League > 21-22 January Norwich v Chelsea Both of these sides look poor defensively although Chelsea have strengthened by bringing in Gary Cahill from Bolton. However he hasn't had a great season so far so I wouldn't expect him to make to much difference to a shaky Chelsea defence. Norwich have scored in 8 of there 10 home games this season and have yet to keep a clean sheet. In Chelsea's away games they have scored in 8 of there away games and kept 3 clean sheets. Norwich's home games have featured over 2.5 goals in 60% of the games and Chelsea's away matches have featured over 2.5 in 50% of the games. My pick for this game is BTTS at 1.61 (8/10) William Hill

[CiderHead]

Re: England > Weekend > Barclays Premier League > 21-22 January Stoke v WBA Stoke have a fantastic home record against WBA, they haven't been beaten by WBA since 1982. In the last 5 games at Stoke they have won 4 and drew 1. WBA haven't beaten Stoke in any competition home or away since 2003 (10 games). So far this season Stoke have picked up 16 points at home and have a 4-4-2 record. They are unbeaten in there last 4 home games and have won there last 4 games in a row. WBA have picked up 14 points away from the Hawthorns and have a 4-2-4 record. They have lost 3 of there last 4 games in all competitions, they have only conceded 5 goals in these 4 games but they have only scored 1 goal. I think the price on Stoke will fall the longer I wait so I'm getting in now on Stoke at 1.91 (5/10) William Hill

[Mindfulness]

Re: England > Weekend > Barclays Premier League > 21-22 January

Fulham has a good home record too ! Its hard to win at Fulham not taking man utd trashing into account .

Yeh no-one likes playing there, overall Fulham have under performed this season so far. Their team has been unsettled as Jol has struggled to field a consistent starting 11. As the season goes on you would expect them to get stronger and I certainly think Newcastle at home is a winnable game for them. Would I bet on Fulham at present? Not sure because despite the missing personnel Newcastle will still be organised and have good spirit so ofcourse there is a draw danger here.

[Mustafa]

Re: England > Weekend > Barclays Premier League > 21-22 January

Yeh no-one likes playing there' date=' overall Fulham have under performed this season so far. Their team has been unsettled as Jol has struggled to field a consistent starting 11. As the season goes on you would expect them to get stronger and I certainly think Newcastle at home is a winnable game for them. Would I bet on Fulham at present? Not sure because despite the missing personnel Newcastle will still be organised and have good spirit so ofcourse there is a draw danger here.[/quote'] Fulham - Newcastle Newcastle will be without their key player Demba Ba who is their top scorer as well as Cheik Tiote. Both have left for African Cup of Nations. In my opinion the absence of these two will be a major factor on Saturday. Fulham have been playing really well recently and it is always hard to play Craven Cottage. In their last 5 home games they lost only once and that was a 0-5 loss to Man.United, which in my opinion was just a fluke. Fulham managed to get a point away against Arsenal and Chelsea; they also beat Arsenal and Liverpool. Moreover, Fulham have a good home record against Newcastle. In last 5 games at Crave Cottage Fulham won 4 and lost 1. Meanwhile, overall in the last games between these two sides there were 6 wins for Fulham, 3 wins for Newcastle and 1 goalless draw in 2010. Fulham @ 2.00 (2 units) William Hill

[quinner89]

Re: England > Weekend > Barclays Premier League > 21-22 January Is there any thread for Football Specials on this thread? Just got this email from Setantabet.com Manchester Streak: 5/1 for Manchester Utd & Manchester City both to win this weekend London Streak: 12/1 for Arsenal and Tottenham both to win this weekend Surely the London double is overpriced? I mean Arsenal are at home and Spurs are playing a Citeh side who look out of sorts to a certain degree? http://www.setantabet.com/setantabet?action=GoEvClass&ev_class_id=195

[Bogside]

Re: England > Weekend > Barclays Premier League > 21-22 January I'd go the opposite and say it's slightly under-priced. I'd expect 2/1 on Arsenal and around 100/30 on Spurs at the very least. For an 'enhanced' double I'd want at least 13/1 and probably 14/1 before I'd say its mis-priced.

[Chris1988]

Re: England > Weekend > Barclays Premier League > 21-22 January Hi all, Long time lurker here, thought I would give my thought's and hopefully pick up some tips & advice from others. 1 bet I will look at the weekend, may add others later. Bolton v Liverpool - Liverpool @ 1.62 - SKYBET This is more a bet to oppose Bolton rather than back Liverpool. Bolton have conceded the most goals at home this season with 24 so I would expect Liverpool to get at least a couple here, that should be enough for them to win. There home record of 1-1-8 also points me in the direction of Liverpool. Also, Liverpool will have had 3 extra days recovery as Bolton played in the FA Cup reply Tuesday and as another poster already mentioned, the loss of Cahill means Bolton will have an even weaker defence than they have had for the majority of the season. May even consider Liverpool on a minus handicap.

[quinner89]

Re: England > Weekend > Barclays Premier League > 21-22 January

I'd go the opposite and say it's slightly under-priced. I'd expect 2/1 on Arsenal and around 100/30 on Spurs at the very least. For an 'enhanced' double I'd want at least 13/1 and probably 14/1 before I'd say its mis-priced.

I don't think so... Paddy Power pays out at just under 10/1 on the same double. Would love to see the two London clubs win. Really blow the top four open.