blackcrow Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 New England -9 vs Baltimore. Total is 50 San Francisco -2.5 vs NY Giants. Total is 43. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rob the I ty Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Re: NFL: Championship Games Giants are +3 @1.80 with bet365 atm, thought it would be a pick'em or -2 for the Giants. Wow the Pats are -7, surprised at the early movement from -9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danj2202 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Re: NFL: Championship Games I have to say that initial line of 9 looked awful high to me, around a touchdown feels right to me. No doubt the hot teams are Pats and Giants but the fact that the Giamts are the dog here means thats the team most will want to be on, which in turn worries me, it looks almost too tempting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zagi Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Re: NFL: Championship Games Patriots and Ravens meet to decide who goes to the Superbowl. Ravens took care of bussines by beating Texas at home last week, but it was far from a convincing one. They had problems moving the ball and called on their defense to stop the Texans time after time in that game. Their running game is ok but thier passing is pretty bad and although NE secondary is far from being the best out there, should be enough for Flacco who is not brimming with confidence. Pats destroyed the Broncos and Brady once again showed what he's made of. People say that NE isn't good enough to go through and that they haven't beaten any good team this seson, but the Ravens haven't been a good traveler themselves and have been beaten away from home by decent QBs all through the year. Pats have allowed a couple of back door covers this year, but Idon't see them letting up in this one. Pick: Pats -12.5 @ 2.76 sportbet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zagi Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Re: NFL: Championship Games The Giants are coming to Candlestick ona high after beating the Packers in the Previous round. They have been playing very well for the past month to get to here. Their defense is healthy once again and all seems to be clicking on the offense too. They still hve problems with their running game, though. The 49ers have been underrated all season and they are underrated here too despite beating NO in the previous round. Their good running game + good defense combo is usually the stuff that wins championships. Their defense is a joy to watch and Alex Snith is more than a game manager. The Giants are not a turf team like NO, but have problems when they switch to grass covering in just 5 of their last 17, while the 49ers covered 13 from last 17 on grass. H2H the home team is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings. Pick: 49ers -5.5 @ 2.82 sportbet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danj2202 Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Re: NFL: Championship Games Baltimore to beat New England @ 11/4 Boylesports Well the main stat I have here is regular season play against playoff teams the ravens went 5-0 and the Patriots went 1-2 with a win only against Denver. This Ravens D is for real and will help keep New England in check and as long as Ray Rice turns up this week and there will be no excuses against this awful Patriots rush defense unlike a superb defense that they played against Houston last week. They have to limit the mistakes on offense and not turn the ball over but the odds are far too big that this Ravens team will repeat their playoff performance of last year when the went into New England and won. If New England get up early and force the ravens to rely on Flacco this could get ugly but its the value play imo and worth a chance this leads me onto my fave pick of the week which I hope I am wrong about as NYG @ 66/1 is my only live outright bet San Francisco (-2.5) to beat New York Giants @ 19/20 vcbet Under 43.5 Total points @ 8/11 coral The Giants are the hot team in the NFL and the new sexy pick for the superbowl, while I dont believe for a second that Coughlin will allow his players to believe the hype they are going to have to run the ball here to win and the injury to Ahmad Bradshaw is a massive concern as they will be forced to rely on Brandon Jacobs "the emile heskey of running backs". Jacobs has made a career out of running sideways for little to no gain and will see little success against this defense. Alex Smith needs only repeat his heroics of last week which will be tough against this pass rush but I imagine Frank Gore will be able to do enough to keep the pass rush honest. If the Giants keep the game close I am never prepared to write off Eli Manning in the fourth quarter but I am struggling to see how anything other than a repeat of the 49ers victory over the Giants earlier this season is repeated here :( Good luck to all and enjoy, should be a couple of cracking games! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danj2202 Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Re: NFL: Championship Games they are going to have to run the ball here to win feel i should add this statement is based on a weather forecast for the game that is a lot of rain and basically horrific conditions in San Francisco for offense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Re: NFL: Championship Games Just a couple of things... ...I've learnt the hard way over the years not to read too much into weather conditions. Latest indications are 40% chance of rain and wind ~15mph...which really won't change a thing. (Rain is never an issue, and imo wind only starts to affect things when it's 20+). Bradshaw looked fine last week...will have a harder time of it against this D for sure, but he'll still get the bulk of the carries, not Jacobs. In fact, I reckon the line has moved way too far now already, but if it gets to 41 in the next few hours I'll be on the over. Really tough games to get a good read on I reckon...Baltimore did go 5-0 v. Houston, Pits and Cinci...but realistically they played ONE decent offense...and gave up 34 points @ SD, so how good are they?? I really don't know. ...at the same time, how good are NE?? Beaten at home by NYG, lost to Pits, won by 3 late v. Miami (solid D)... Just don't see anything I like here at all. The only thing I like at all this week is Davis +15.5 receiving v. Cruz @ 2.25 @ Olympic. I mentioned last week about NYG giving up balls to TE's, and Finley was targeted 9 times (the most of any receiver)...'only' caught 4 for 37, but was WIDE open on a play that should have netted him 30+ if not for an awful Rodgers throw. Davis has had games of 72+ in 3 of his last 4...and been the most targeted receiver by Smith in 3 of those games (2nd most in the other)...10, 8, 9, 10 times. Cruz has had 4 of last 6 74 yards or less...and the 2 monster games in between were due to BIG gains after the catch that should have been stopped for far less. As dan said in the Fantasy thread, it does seem like Nicks has become the main man so far in the Play-offs...add to that Cruz is reportedly having problems with a Quad injury... A good spread here for Davis imo, at an even better price. Good luck guys. :cheers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danj2202 Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 That was vastly different to the forecast i saw which.said virtually torrential rain for the game but then i never have trusted the weather man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackcrow Posted January 22, 2012 Author Share Posted January 22, 2012 Re: NFL: Championship Games Baltimore -2.5 @ 3.90 centrebet Initially was thinking the other way, but the more i think about this game, the more i like the Ravens :loon Last week Baltimore struggled to get past Houston as they get a few turnovers that led to points and this ultimately won them the game, while NE were very good, but they faced a very poor Denver offence that was one dimensional, and with two weeks practice, their average defence had time to work out how to shut down the run game. From then on, the Denver defence did not have time to rest and recover, and Bardy tore them apart pretty easily. Now this Baltimore defence is very good, and Brady will not have the same time to find his options, as Denver did. There is not much of a run game, so they do rely on passing the ball. Baltimore have some very good CBs, but if they can stop the TEs Gronkowski and Hernandez, then they have a good chance of stopping this NE offence. Like their LBs like Lewis and Suggs to either pressure Brady or limit the space to find his TEs. Now this Baltimore offence is that as good as Flacco has struggled this year, while RB Rice did come on strong towards the end of the season, as they averaged 182 yards per game in their last 5 games of the regular season. NE's defence was very good against Denver, but this is another level, as Flacco can hit this NE secondary if given time to find his range of passes, while Rice can wear them down with his running. Like Smith did for SF last week, can see Flacco with Rice stepping up to win this game for them, as the defence does their part in this game San Francisco -13.5 @ 5.00 centrebet :loon Both SF and the Giants recorded upset wins last week, as their defence forced turnovers which set up good field position for their offence to make the most of it. Two in form sides with their defences playing well, with SF's Smith stepping up last week to win the game for them while the Giants Manning continued to play very well. Now SF have the best run defence in the league and with Bradshaw doubtful, the focus is on Jacobs and don't think that he is up to carrying the load by himself. That means they become one-dimensional with Manning have to win the game for them. But with the weather likely to be wet and windy, throwing the ball accurately becomes harder to do. And with SF having a decent pass defence, and though they allowed 311 yards to Manning and 2 TDs, they did also get 2 INTs in the 27-20 home win over them in November, they have the defence to nullify Manning, as well as create turnovers, like they did to Brees last week. NY's defence has also stepped up during the latter part of the season, and like SF, they have managed to create turnovers. However there are still question marks about their effectiveness in stopping the pass as well as the run, and Smith showed last week, that he may have finally got the confidence to be the player people believe he always had the potential to be. But where they really have an edge is in the running game, as Gore had 89 rushing yards last week, and expect him to see more of the ball given the conditions they are going to be played in. Given that the Giants allow 255 passing yards and 121 rushing yards per game, then this defence does rely on Manning to keep them in the game, and if he does not, then hard to see them doing well on this good SF defence, especially with the LBs they have, who will pressure Manning all game. SF beat NY 27-20 earlier in the season, but with Gore being pretty much ineffective because of injury, like him to have more of an impact here. Manning did well and they rushed for 93 yards, but Jacobs had only 55 yards on 18 attempts, which is not good enough for a game like this. Smith passed for 242 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT, while they had 77 rushing yards with Gore forced out due to injury early on. Like SF to win here, and win well. Playoff record: 5-5 (+2.81) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackcrow Posted January 22, 2012 Author Share Posted January 22, 2012 Re: NFL: Championship Games USA Sports Punter Of The Year (punter with the most consistent tipping on USA Sports): TazaD Well done TD :clap :cheers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 the injury to Ahmad Bradshaw is a massive concern with Bradshaw doubtful, the focus is on Jacobs and don't think that he is up to carrying the load by himself... but Jacobs had only 55 yards on 18 attempts, well. Guys, unless I'm missing something major (& I seriously don't thihnk I am! :unsure), Bradshaw is fine and will be playing. Latest weather update, 50% chance of rain and 14mph winds... ...seriously, nothing to worry about. Expect the total to be 43 by game time. [Regardless of the result...obviously! :D ] EDIT: As for the NYG D, I don't think it's a massive coincidence that with both Tuck and Umenyiora healthy(ish)...well, starting at least!...in the last 3 games their D suddenly is doing what it (on paper) should have. They've played just 5 games together all year...and the team has allowed just 16ppg in those 5 games!! :eek EDIT 2: bc, that can't be right surely! :\ My NFL tilt has been so half arsed it isn't funny (seriously...it isn't funny! :eyes), and my NBA contribution consists of un/sticking a single thread once a week. My sincere apologies to many of you who are far more deserving. :$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danj2202 Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 He missed some practices this week with a foot injury. Sure he is listed as probable and they say he is fine but this is the NFL what else are they going to say. I dont buy it myself completely and dont want to invest too much in the injury report being 100% honest and transparent. I dont believe the carries will be split normally and the horror of jacobs getting double digit carries could be realised. I guess we find out later :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Re: NFL: Championship Games He practiced fully on Thursday. Jacobs over 9 carries is paying pretty well at Olympic. ;) Sorry, I slight correction to my last...Tuck and Ozi have played in 7 games together...av. against ~17.5... Giants win this one I've just decided! :lol [4.33 to win SB is the best I can find.. @ Lads] And...Lads again...over 41 @ 1.95! Solid number and impossible to knock back at the price. 7 hours to game time (13 hours to work at least! :lol)...best get some :zzz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danj2202 Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Taz if you get nothing else right i hope you get the giants right for the superbowl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rob the I ty Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Re: NFL: Championship Games 9° Chance of Rain: 100% Wind: SSE at 35 km/h Cloudy and windy with periods of rain. Low 49F. Winds SSE at 20 to 30 mph. Rainfall around a half an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rob the I ty Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Re: NFL: Championship Games That's what I got for the Giants game. I did like the Giants and have taken them earlier in the week @-2, but the weather will be a factor and it will favor the 49ers. My reasoning is I felt the Ginats left plenty of plays on the field vs the 49ers earlier in the season. They made some silly mistakes which gave the game away. Their defense is much improved since then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Camballer Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Re: NFL: Championship Games Long time lurker here...thanks for all the great tips this year boys. I am a biased Pats fan here...but if Ravens don't get good pressure on Brady they have no chance of winning. Pats may look for some dump offs to Woodhead so I like his props for receptions and receiving yards. They could also have some luck running w/ draws as Baltimore over pursues the pocket. But who knows which Pats D will show up?? I would not lay the 9 points on the Pats. As for the 49ers I can't get over last week when NO had 5 turn overs and S.F. barely won the game. They won't get that many gifts again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danj2202 Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Re: NFL: Championship Games for those of us concerned about the weather it is now raining in SF but it appears they have covered the field http://lockerz.com/s/176826198 http://pic.twitter.com/KPaUN3wl lets hope it stops soon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danj2202 Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Re: NFL: Championship Games Joe Flacco what have you done! :wall:wall:wall:wall:wall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danj2202 Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Re: NFL: Championship Games what a pick!!! :notworthy:notworthy:notworthy:notworthy:notworthy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danj2202 Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Re: NFL: Championship Games why dont you kick there? if you have a place kicker that cannot make one from 53 he should be cut, no place on the roster for that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danj2202 Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Re: NFL: Championship Games why dont you kick there? if you have a place kicker that cannot make one from 53 he should be cut' date=' no place on the roster for that[/quote'] question answered!!!! :eyes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Re: NFL: Championship Games Phewwwwwwwwww :nana I think too much blame will get thrown Cundiff's way, completely forgetting Stirling Moore's play stripping the ball in the endzone! Ravens literally had the win in their hands there til Moore stepped in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Re: NFL: Championship Games why dont you kick there? if you have a place kicker that cannot make one from 53 he should be cut' date=' no place on the roster for that[/quote'] 6/16 50+ career... ...1/10 since 2006!! :eek :eek Looks like they've been carrying him for a while huh. :\ Ravens backers very stiff there. :( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Re: NFL: Championship Games Vernon. :notworthy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Re: NFL: Championship Games Cruz... :@ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danj2202 Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Cant believe you are behind after the davis td catch :what: ridiculous half of football for cruz!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danj2202 Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Baltimore to beat New England @ 11/4 Boylesports Well the main stat I have here is regular season play against playoff teams the ravens went 5-0 and the Patriots went 1-2 with a win only against Denver. This Ravens D is for real and will help keep New England in check and as long as Ray Rice turns up this week and there will be no excuses against this awful Patriots rush defense unlike a superb defense that they played against Houston last week. They have to limit the mistakes on offense and not turn the ball over but the odds are far too big that this Ravens team will repeat their playoff performance of last year when the went into New England and won. If New England get up early and force the ravens to rely on Flacco this could get ugly but its the value play imo and worth a chance this leads me onto my fave pick of the week which I hope I am wrong about as NYG @ 66/1 is my only live outright bet San Francisco (-2.5) to beat New York Giants @ 19/20 vcbet Under 43.5 Total points @ 8/11 coral The Giants are the hot team in the NFL and the new sexy pick for the superbowl, while I dont believe for a second that Coughlin will allow his players to believe the hype they are going to have to run the ball here to win and the injury to Ahmad Bradshaw is a massive concern as they will be forced to rely on Brandon Jacobs "the emile heskey of running backs". Jacobs has made a career out of running sideways for little to no gain and will see little success against this defense. Alex Smith needs only repeat his heroics of last week which will be tough against this pass rush but I imagine Frank Gore will be able to do enough to keep the pass rush honest. If the Giants keep the game close I am never prepared to write off Eli Manning in the fourth quarter but I am struggling to see how anything other than a repeat of the 49ers victory over the Giants earlier this season is repeated here :( Good luck to all and enjoy, should be a couple of cracking games! Still feel the ravens play was the right one but what can you do....... Never been happier to lose a bet than on the 49ers and at least we salvaged something with the total!!! Sent from my GT-I9100 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rob the I ty Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Re: NFL: Championship Games The Ravens should've gone for the 51 yarder with Cundiff. Sure he missed the 32yarder, but he's got a good leg. Either way the play of the game was by Moore who stripped Evans who really shoudl've done better securing the ball IMO. Two great games, the Giants/49ers game could've gone either way but the Giants were the bettet team. They made more plays on offense and the 49ers didn't do much aside from the 2 TDs to Davis, plus they made 2 huge special teams errors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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