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NBA Week 4. (Mon 16th)


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Re: NBA Week 4. (Mon 16th)

I'll start off with Chicago -3.5 (1.95 @ PP) Playing amazing D atm, and held the same mephis team (albeit Randolf being injured in game) to 64 points new years day. Grizz are 0-4 ats on the season when scoring I took the Bulls as well. Suddenly, minutes after I placed my bet, big line movement. Reason? Rose is out. Sorry to say so are the Bulls. Anybody thinking about InGame betting, don't do it. Chicago is looking absolutly terrible right now... :wall
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Re: NBA Week 4. (Mon 16th) NBA11-12 / 9W-9L Dirk Nowitzki over 20.5 points @ 1.83 Bet365 Dirk is averaging only 17.7 PPG so far. Couple of reasons for that: He's playing less minutes in this lockout-season, he's taking less shots so the 'new' team can gel better (especially against the weak teams they just played), and Kidd was out for nine days. What I expect for tonight: He'll play big minutes (Lakers are not Kings/Bucks/...), he'll take more shots as their go-to-guy in a probable close game, and Kidd will find him in his spots. Before Kidd got injured in San Antonio Dirk averaged 16.4 FGA and 22.1 PPG. And while Kidd was absent Dirk averaged 9.8 FGA and 13.8 PPG. When they played in Boston Dirk played 38 minutes but took only 11 shots and it was a close game - with Kidd this would have never happened. And I don't expect sth. like that to happen tonight.

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Re: NBA Week 4. (Mon 16th) Kings - Twolves: under 107 @ 1.93 pinnacle I really dont know if i am missing something in this one, but how the hell will Kings score some 90 pts if Twolves are supposed to put in 105..Kings are utter s..t in offence so far, they are - dont know correctly if not the worst then one of the worst attacking teams. Minnesotta on other hand very good D, improved allowed FG in last 5 and missing two Beasley and Barea who both average over 10 PPG. I see this one going onto high 180, but not over this line

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Re: NBA Week 4. (Mon 16th) Magic -12 @ 2.00 Pinnacle Ok, we are now supposed to believe that after Bobcats are going to cover that? Two weeks ago spread was +4 for Cats @ home and with Magette, Magic covered by 17, winning with 100-79. Now without Magette, i can see Magic controlling the board completely and 12 is probably too low. Magic should win this one with more than that. Hedo, Howard, JJ...they are too much for Bobcats, to add, Bobcats outside shooters which will be needed today are just too bad to decide this game. Magic to win with 17+

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Re: NBA Week 4. (Mon 16th) NBA 11-12 / 10W-9L Suns @ Bulls Suns +9,5 @ 1.9 Bet365 Watched Bulls yesterday without D-Rose when they lost vs Grizzlies by 16. They looked poor without him, not really because they're poor but because they're exhausted. Their schedule is ridiculous so far: in the last two weeks they played 3 B2B, 1 B2B2B, and tonight it's another B2B. There's still a question mark behind Rose, but from what I read it is very likely he'll miss this one, too. Suns only played 7 games in the last two weeks, only 1 B2B, and didn't play yesterday. Nash & Hill are 'back'. And the Suns actually looked quite good the last times they met the Bulls (even with Rose). However, small stakes only.

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Re: NBA Week 4. (Mon 16th) NBA 01:30 New Jersey Nets - Golden State Warriors - 3pts @ 1.73 betsafe Yes NJ is very bad and they have 3-11 score with 0-4 at home, but they now have 4 home games in row and I count on them to win something, they may start wright away tongiht with win over GS who are on their 4 in row road game...NJ have in mind oklahoma game in few days and surely will lose that and with that in mind I see them giving a go here! Currey is out for GS and Elis got a hit in a nose in last game!

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Re: NBA Week 4. (Mon 16th) NBA 04:00 Sacramento Kings - Indiana Pacers ---------------------------------------- over 187 @ 1.66 bet365 8pts It all points to over in this game, Over is 4-1 in Pacers last 5 games as a road favorite. Over is 4-0 in Kings last 4 games as a home underdog. Over is 4-1 in Kings last 5 home games. Over is 5-1 in Kings last 6 games as a home underdog. And to add to this good trens that last 10 h2h games gone over this line! Schould be easy money!

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Re: NBA Week 4. (Mon 16th) NBA 02:08 New Orleans Hornets @ Houston Rockets ---------------------------------------- Houston Rockets -5 @ 1.43 >Bet365 8pts Houston Rockets are playing good basketball and are on a 5 game wining streak and 5-1 at home. New Orleans Hornets on the other hand are 1-4 on the road and on a 4 game loosing streak. Houston played on the 17.01. so they had one more day of rest and they play at home while New Orleans Hornets played on 18.01. and lost a tight game at home to Minnesota Timberwolves that they surely were expecting to win. One day less rest, playing away after a bad result at home, Houston solid at home and wanting to improve on their solid run I can't see anything else here other than a Houston win. Playing it safe at handicap -5 for Houston as they beat two opponents in the last 4 games by only 2 and 4 points. :cigar

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Re: NBA Week 4. (Mon 16th) Tonight Dallas is travelling to Utah. The Mavs have been winning at home but losing away, still managing an 8-2 mark ATS in their last 10. Although they are struggling on offense they have really stepped up their defense and are allowing just 77 ppg over the last 5. Utah has been in similar form gwtting most of their wins when playing at home where they keep their opponents bellow 90 on averge, but with Mavs defense playing great it looks like they will have problems scoring, too. Mavericks are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Mavericks are 38-16-2 ATS in their last 56 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Jazz are 11-24 ATS in their last 35 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Jazz are 10-26-1 ATS in their last 37 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. This looks like a close one, but the fact that Mavs have won the last two times visiting here shows me some value on the away team. Pick: Mavs -1.5 @ 2.55 bet365

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Re: NBA Week 4. (Mon 16th) Some interesting matc ups tonight, Nuggets @ Wizards cought my eye. Washington are plain awful. They are 2-12 SU and I can't see where the bad run ends. Despite them scoring over 100 in the last two games , I can see their problems continig as there is no consistency in this team. The defens is the better part but its far from good, which their record reflects. On the other side, Denver has been playing well, going 10-5 SU, 11-4 ATS. The offense is the better part of this team, with the defense usually doing enough to win games. Looking at all the angles, I have this game between 195 and 200, and some trends support this: Under is 5-2 in Nuggets last 7 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Under is 14-6-2 in Nuggets last 22 games playing on 1 days rest. Under is 36-14-1 in Wizards last 51 games as a home underdog. Under is 56-25 in Wizards last 81 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Some nice value on the under IMO. Pick: U 203 @ 2.18 sportingbbet

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Re: NBA Week 4. (Mon 16th) This is the other game that spells value for me. the visiting Twolves are playing above expectations. They are 6-8 SU, but 9-5 ATS. They are not an offensive powerhouse obviously, scoring 100 just 2 times in the last 10, but their defense has been doing a good job keeping opponents under the same mark for the 9 times out of the last 10 games. The Clippers have shown 2 faces so fasr. One playing at home and one when away and their 8-4 record is just a reflection of a majority home matches thus far. With their hot and cold performances they are averaging 96 ppg on both sides of the ball. With Minnesota being 11-2 to the under so far it's no surprise I've got thi game between 180 and 185 points. Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Los Angeles. Under is 15-6 in the last 21 meetings. Again some nice value on the under. Pick: U 187.5 @ 2.18 sportingbet

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Re: NBA Week 4. (Mon 16th) NBA 11-12 / 10W - 10L Magic @ Celtics Boston tonight without Rondo, Pietrus, Ray Allen, Dooling, Wilcox. Orlando should cover -5,5 @ 1.91 William Hill rather easily. Wizards @ 76ers 76ers -12,5 @ 1.91 William Hill We already had that bet two weeks ago. http://forum.punterslounge.com/f68/nba-week-3-mon-jan-9-a-125424/#post2091841 76ers won by 31 at home and by 13 in Washington, circumstances haven't changed much, especially at home I don't see 76ers having any problems with the Wizards.

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Re: NBA Week 4. (Mon 16th)

NBA 11-12 / 10W - 10L Magic @ Celtics Boston tonight without Rondo, Pietrus, Ray Allen, Dooling, Wilcox. Orlando should cover -5,5 @ 1.91 William Hill rather easily.
Had the Magic done myself, talk about absolutely destroyed!!!! A franchise low total of points against the C's missing two of their best players (Rondo & Allen) & who had lost 6 of the last 8. :( Knocked a nice wee quad bet I had! :wall
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Re: NBA Week 4. (Mon 16th) Wizards - Bobcats 1(-5) 1.76 bet365 5/10 Bobcats b2b. Wizards with 'new' coach, because Saunders fired from Wizards (FINALLY!!!). For me huge advantage for hosts is PG/SG position, because Wall and Young are better shooters than Walker/Henderson. Position PF/C look better than Bobcats. Blatche and McGee must play more agresive with fight on boards and this is key, because Knicks demolished Bobcats in rebounds and easy won. DJ Augustin again out. For me is 'new breath' after leaving Flip Saunders Washington (for me one of biggest cancer in Wizards), but Wall must play more with his team player and must create position for Young/Crawford and Blatche/McGee. Wizards have debt to their fans. Wall last time play too very egoistic if play against Bobcats with team, for me 5+ is more probably to cover. GL Cavs - Knicks 2 @ 1.75 bwin 5/10

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Re: NBA Week 4. (Mon 16th) Charlotte Bobcats - Washington Wizards 2 1.8 bwin 5/10 Bobcats probably again without DJ White and DJ Augustin. Wizards record on away is 0-8, each series ever ends and i think this is best time break this series. For me advantage Wizards is PF/C. Both teams play 25.01 and win in home 92:75 - first match with new head coach . Good time for first win on away, because opponent is really great for break 0-8 series. Last games Wizards win fight in rebounds 51:38. If again control rebounds - Wizards will win. Miami Heat - Chicago Bulls 1 1.53 bwin 5/10 Luol Deng out, very bad info for Bulls, because he was great defender on LeBron James. Next bad news for Bulls is Wade back. He back in great form! Miami have better roster in last season with better Bosh. Big test for both teams, because this is first game in this season and home ground is big advantage - i think. In last 10 games Miami record is 6-4, Bulls 8-2. As i wrote match will be a big test who will be best team in eastern conference. Miami for me is much better dangerous team as compared 2010/2012 season and should will win in first game against Bulls. Against Knicks play poor in first three Q, but in last play great zone defense and % shooting 3pts players from New York was much weaker. In match, Knicks attempt 43 shoot from distance! and made 18 = 42!Amazing! But i'm sure against Bulls does not happen again. GL

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Re: NBA Week 4. (Mon 16th) Charlotte - Washington At first glance this this game seems like having to chose between the less of two evils. Wizards have been terrible thus far, posting a 3-16 SU/6-13 ATS record, with all their wins coming on home court. They can't score and can't defend but in all this they did bet Charlotte at home by 17 points, a few nights ago. Bobcats have been as bad as Washington, resulting in a similar record, 3-17 SU/7-13 ATS. They have the same problems on both sides of the ball and you have to wander how bad will it get for both teams this season. What nudges me into taking a punt here is the recent form, where Washington showed some signs of improvement while Charlotte continue to struggle. Add to that the recent performance in their H2H and the Wizards will be a step ahead all the way in this one IMO. One shouldn't overlook that the favorite is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 H2H, too. Pick: Wizards -1.5 @ 1.93 pinnacle

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Re: NBA Week 4. (Mon 16th)

Charlotte Bobcats - Washington Wizards 2 1.8 bwin 5/10
99:102 +4u Minnesota Timberwolves - Los Angeles Lakers 1 1.91 bwin 5/10 Lakers b2b. For Minnesota probably back Darko Milicic and debut for Brad Miller. Fans in Minnesota are really hot public and i expect full hall in classic game against Lakers. Lakers in crisis - for me. BIG problem for Lakers is absence first PG - Steve Blake. Minnesota have Ricky Rubio and Luke Ridneour. Record Lakers on away is 1-7 and is the true picture of LA Lakers. BEAT LA ! Boston + Nets = 1.86 bwin 5/10 GL
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Re: NBA Week 4. (Mon 16th) Miami - Chicago The big game on tonight's NBA card and from a betting perspective it's like picking the the less of two evils as in Charlotte-Washington match, the difference being these teams are playing well if not great. Bulls are on fire. 17-4 SU/12-9 ATS is saying much about them. They have a +10 points differential. What bothers me a little bit is their away performances where their numbers are down to "only" +7 and the injury of Deng who will be out fro about 2 weeks with a hand injury. Miami haven't been posting that impressive numbers but are still 14-5 SU/8-11 ATS. With the same stats being at +7 overall but that rises to +13 in their home game. The good thing is that Wade returns from injury and this could be a decisive factor in this game. We saw the same line the last 2 times these teams played in Miami and Heat covered both times, one in OT though. Pick: Miami -4.5 @ 1.96 pinnacle

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Re: NBA Week 4. (Mon 16th) Good tip on Miami, they seem to pick it up pretty good , leading by 5 in the 2nd Q. For tonight I really like Denver . For whatever reason , the Clipps seem to be inconsistent on the road (1-4). Gallinari has a nice rhythm for the Nuggets and for tonight Lawson is announced back in the line up. From what I've seen in the game vs the Raptors , Nuggets have a good chance of covering this one. Denver - 6 to the bank.

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Re: NBA Week 4. (Mon 16th) NBA 02:00 [h=1]Denver Nuggets - Los Angeles Clippers[/h][h=1]Los Angeles Clippers +8 @ 1.64 bet365[/h]

Like the Clippers here 5-0 ATS in last 5 meattings Denver is in a bad schoulde spot, also Clippers are a good team this season and they can hang on with Denver, I like how Poul got a little rust off the last 2 games and Clippers love to run and Defence that Denver team is playing will benifit the Clipps. LAC can easely cover the spread!

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Re: NBA Week 4. (Mon 16th) New Orleans - Atlanta The 14-6 Atlanta are visiting the 4-15 New Orleans and the spread is set at 2. The books must be mad, right? This is a classical trap game and the public is big on the Hawks. The NO record doesn't tell the whole story, as they are losing tight games and it's just a question when this will turn. Pick: New Orleans ML @ 2.30 sportingbet

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Re: NBA Week 4. (Mon 16th)

NBA 02:00 Denver Nuggets - Los Angeles Clippers Los Angeles Clippers +8 @ 1.64 bet365

Like the Clippers here 5-0 ATS in last 5 meattings Denver is in a bad schoulde spot, also Clippers are a good team this season and they can hang on with Denver, I like how Poul got a little rust off the last 2 games and Clippers love to run and Defence that Denver team is playing will benifit the Clipps. LAC can easely cover the spread!

105 - 109 :ok
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Re: NBA Week 4. (Mon 16th) NBA 11-12 / 11W-11L Magic @ 76ers 76ers -6,5 @ 1.83 Pinnacle Orlando lost 4 of the last 5 games with some ridiculous results. 76ers already with 12 home games, won 10. Orlando recently struggled, too many problems to talk about but the trend is your friend, I mean they even lost against the Hornets by 26, that's awful. Superstar D12 is doing anything to get away from that market. Hornets @ Heat Heat -11,5 @ 1.92 Pinnacle Heat with a b2b but those two teams are on two different levels. Heat are among the top 2-3 teams of the league, Hornets are the weakest team in the West. Home advantage, Wade is back, what else can they wish for? Not only a must-win but a 'must-blowout'.

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Re: NBA Week 4. (Mon 16th) Houston - Minnesota Twoves travel to Houston today. They are showing some good bball and Rubio has proved to be a great asset. They are 9-11 SU/ 12-8 ATS. The better part of the team has been the defense which is allowing a very decent 92 ppg in their away matches but has slipped up a bit allowing 98 in their last 5. The Rockets are 12-8 SU/ATS but are riding a 9-1 streak in their last 10. They are allowing 91 ppg on average on their home court and the recent form has been similar. Under is 4-1-1 in Timberwolves last 6 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Under is 4-0 in Rockets last 4 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Under is 8-2 in Rockets last 10 games as a home favorite. You can see why I like the under today, despite the big over in their first match this season. Pick: U 194.5 @ 2.20 bet365

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Re: NBA Week 4. (Mon 16th) Utah - Portland The other game that I like tonight Trail Blazers @ Jazz. Both teams are in a similar spot, Portland 12-8 SU, Utah 11-7 and both have made their court the place where they make the most of it. Portland is just 3-7 SU away and their troubles come from th offensive side of the ball as they score just 91 ppg on their visits which shouldn't be enough today to compete with the Jazz offense who score just under a hundred ppg on their home court. Trail Blazers are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Trail Blazers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite of 0.5-4.5. Jazz are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as a home underdog of 0.5-4.5. Jazz are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Pick: Utah -1 @ 2..35

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