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Argument On Paradise


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I had just been knocked out of the tourney that Billy set up for the PL boys when I thought I would play a cash table to pass some time before the Big Brother final. Anyway.... I have A 10 (both spades). 4 callers. The flop comes K, J, 3 (Two spades - so I am nut flushing) The pot is at $20 and a raise comes in at $10. A call at $10. The pot is now at $40. I call making the pot $50. The turn comes. I think it is a 6 or something but not a spade. The original raiser raises again another $10. Another calls at $10. The pot is now $70. I call making the pot $80. The seven of spades comes. (I have the nuts). The original raiser goes all in about another $20. He gets called again by player two. I call the $20 and reraise another $20. I get called on the side pot. Total pot is about $180. The original raiser goes bananas as I rake the pot and he says "Bullshit". I ask why and he says I had a no chance of hitting that last card. I say I have about a 20% chance considering I know 4 spades are out before the river (two in my hand and two on the table). He says that I had a 5% chance of hitting a spade. Eh? Now I'm sure this is bullshit and I told him so but...... He typed back that this is not the way you calculate the chances of hitting that last card. Well maybe it wasn't 20% as I was thinking fast as you have to - but 5%? What the fcuk? No way. Surely? Can someone..... ok .... Jezza..... enlighten me as I am sure I am right but I need it to be confirmed. PS - I know the call after the flop might have been slightly against me (odds wise) but you sometimes find it hard to lay down a nuts draw for the sake of a few percent - well I do anyway. PPS - I ended up $105 so you can all stick your tourney up your bum. :tongue2 :tongue2

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Re: Argument On Paradise Yep the chance of hitting a spade last card was about 20% (roughly) - you also had the chance of hitting the Q for the nut straight which is about an extra 9% so I think you had a great draw and the guy is just a sore loser :lol Jez

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Re: Argument On Paradise Cheers for the replies lads - I thought I was right. By the way. Would you have called the $10 raise after the flop chaps? The pot was at $40 - the call was $10 making the pot $50. Odds are against slightly but you are nut flushing. Would you have flat called like me or folded?

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Re: Argument On Paradise I would have definately continued in the hand gett1n - you have a big draw and although not quite odds on it is about 45% to make it by the river. Not only this but you are drawing for the NUTS and are guaranteed to be taking it down if you hit (this should be a factor everyone considers when deciding whether to draw or not). The only question now is how to play it. Against many many players in a multiway pot I would have just called as you did, you have the correct odds (and not forgetting the implied odds in NL hold em - someones whole stack) at all times and against many players you want them all to be in as if you hit you stand more chance of being paid. Raising as a semibluff would just drive out some, and others are bound to call on the net (negating the value of the semibluff). Against just one player in last position I almost certainly would have put in a pot sized raise on the flop, this is a good semibluff. You can win by your opponent folding (quite likely if he is at all weak) or if he calls several things can happen. If you hit the turn then you keep betting as per usual and have disguised your hand a little bit - if you are really lucky you might even get a checkraise out of him. However if you miss the turn and he checks to you you can just check along and take the free card - costing you only a little more than calling two of his bets and you still got correct pot odds. The tough part about your hand was you were against two other players (in last position it looks like). It would have been hard knowing which tactic to go for without knowing the size of their stacks but if I had to choose one I would have gone for the semibluff raise on the flop. Jez

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Re: Argument On Paradise Gettin I would have played it exactly the same as you :clap and then typed YOU F'KIN YANK INBREED G'TA FCK YA FCKIN SORE LOSER. CANDY ARSE F'KERS THE LOT OF YA FCKD YA SISTER LATELY YA FCKIN HILLBILLY HAVE A NICE DAY YALL Youve got to treat them with the disrespect they deserve. All mouth and trousers the lot of them.

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Re: Argument On Paradise Hiya Gettin

I’m not sure if you have read this one but I came across a handy “ready reckoner” for calculating your outs and the % attached to them on the turn/river. Pre turn simply multiply your outs by 4 to get the % (i.e 4 flush draw 36%) and pre river simply multiply the outs by 2 (i.e 4 flush draw 18%). Its not 100% accurate but pretty good if you’re pushed for time. That makes both your calls correct outs wise by my reckoning :o .

Incidentally I really hate sore losers like the guy you were playing. Especially ones who do not know what they’re talking about. Its not like you pulled a miracle card.

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Re: Argument On Paradise http://www.chrismoneymaker.com/outs.html#ruleof4 Couldn't find the chart for this I saw Gettin but all it does is compare the EXACT ACTUAL % for outs to those useing the Rule of 2 and Rule of 4 to show the differences are minimal. I've read on Pokerforum that pros would sneer at useing it as the difference between 48% and 45% is huge in the long run but when I'm playing multiple tables I use it the whole time to be honest. If its ok by the other Chris its ok by me :lol I meant to play the tournie last weekend but I was playing one on Bet365. Definitely next one.

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