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fishy25

Tennis: Australian Open 2012

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Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012

Federer vs Nadal I think this match is going to be a thriller. I think none of these two will want to lose the first set and will give their absolute best here. Federer is in a much better condition of playing while Nadal is teh same fighter we know, that never gives up. First set is going to decide so much in this match. Therefor I think will see a long first set! over 10.5 games in the first set @ 3.30 with Unibet
Cool!

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Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012 Quality match there between Rafa and Federer but Nadal deserved the win. Pleased I got up to watch it now on my day off with some of those shots in the 3rd and 4th sets phenomenal. Sharapova beat Kvitova as well and slightly unfortunate that she didn't cover the handicap with the nice price attached to it. However, really good day/night for me, with +8.08 coming out of it, leaving me on +25.07 for the tournament with Rafa into the final as well :ok

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Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012 Azarenka to bt Sharapova @1.813 Pinnacle Took this one early as I expected the price to drop. In today's semis, Aza was the more consistent winner. She did beat defending champion in a convincing manner, though she has tanked in the second set. As to MaSha, she was really lucky to get past Kvitova. MaSha was great in the first set, but then she raised frequency of her errors, and it seems that she is not ready yet for really big matches after her ankle problems in the end of last year. Their last meeting was on clay, Aza won 1st set in Rome last year, but then she got injured in the 2nd set and had to retire. The two matches before that (Finals in Stanford 2010 and Miami 2011, on hard) Aza won 64 61 and 61 64. The remaining three matches are from 2009 and older, MaSha won 2 and Aza 1. I look forward to this match, I can remember their finals in Stanford and Miami, and wearing headphones when watching the match is strongly recommended :-) Also taking Murray to bt Djokovic @ 3.330 Pinnacle 0.5u Over 3.00 seems little bit too much for me. Seems like this comes from their last meeting at AO last year (in the final), where Djoker won in straights. However, Djoker looked like as if he is about to die in the 2nd set against Ferrer, and though this could have been pure comedy, he later admitted that he had problems with breathing during the match. Friday should be much hotter day than Wednesday when the Ferrer's match was played, and the evening temperature should be by about 5 degrees higher. We all know about Djoker problems with the heat, so this could be a factor. Moreover, Murray is different Murray now under his new coach Lendl, playing more aggressively, and this could also be a factor.

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Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012

Roger Federer vs Rafael Nadal over 37.5 games 8/15 skybet i think this match will be a tight match with two players knowing each others games so well also with a place in another grand slam final to aim for it will be a fascinating contest as it always is between these two great players
that was easy in the end especially as it went to four sets instead of five

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Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012 Sharapova vs Azarenka - Azarenka to Win @ 4/5 with Titan Bet - 5 Points Not a chance here for Maria, she can shreek all she likes she isn't going to stop the double faults. Azarenka doesn't make the number of errors Kvitova does and has an attacking game to boot, she's also unlike Kvitova against Maria, going to capatalize on her chances. Nailed on for me, nerves in her first slam final? Ugh, nah, she dealt with the semi final and the Australian crowd comprehensively, don't see why this will be any different, against an extremely dodgy server atm in Sharapova.

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Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012

Sharapova vs Azarenka - Azarenka to Win @ 4/5 with Titan Bet - 5 Points Not a chance here for Maria, she can shreek all she likes she isn't going to stop the double faults. Azarenka doesn't make the number of errors Kvitova does and has an attacking game to boot, she's also unlike Kvitova against Maria, going to capatalize on her chances. Nailed on for me, nerves in her first slam final? Ugh, nah, she dealt with the semi final and the Australian crowd comprehensively, don't see why this will be any different, against an extremely dodgy server atm in Sharapova.
A bit uncouth and for that I agoligise, but posts like this are just drivel. If it's nailed on and Maria doesn't have a chance, why are they even offering a market? Or for that matter why are they even bothering to play the match?:unsure

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Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012

A bit uncouth and for that I agoligise' date=' but posts like this are just drivel. If it's nailed on and Maria doesn't have a chance, why are they even offering a market? Or for that matter why are they even bothering to play the match?:unsure[/quote'] Either your being pedantic or simply shorted sighted? "They" ... the bookmakers are offering such desirable odds because the "softcore" tennis punters of this World are lumping money on her, they hear a commercial name and they back it, the people who actually follow tennis all year around on the other hand know better. ;) Its the same for when Djokovic became injured, the commentators on EuroSport over-reacted and lots of people watching started backing Ferrer, the odds for Novak to win became juicy and the ones you knew Novak as having the heart of lion backed him and it paid off. If Sharapova beats Azarenka, for me, that will be as big, if not bigger than Murray ousting Djokovic. ;)

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Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012

Either your being pedantic or simply shorted sighted? "They" ... the bookmakers are offering such desirable odds because the "softcore" tennis punters of this World are lumping money on her, they hear a commercial name and they back it, the people who actually follow tennis all year around on the other hand know better. ;) Its the same for when Djokovic became injured, the commentators on EuroSport over-reacted and lots of people watching started backing Ferrer, the odds for Novak to win became juicy and the ones you knew Novak as having the heart of lion backed him and it paid off. If Sharapova beats Azarenka, for me, that will be as big, if not bigger than Murray ousting Djokovic. ;)
Yeah with the amount of money traded on tennis markets I'm sure they are so naive:lol. It's a quick retraction from 'not having a chance' to being a bigger upset than Murray ousting Djokovic.

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Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012 Hoping with the early start I should be able to watch a fair chunk if not all of this match before my lectures tomorrow. Depending on the quality I may have to go in a little late :lol I'm taking 4 in the match though, mostly involving these 'special' markets Ladbrokes make available for the latter stages of grand slams. Novak Djokovic vs Andy Murray- Over 37.5 games- 4/5 Ladbrokes- (4/10) Total Double Faults Under 8.5- 4/6 Ladbrokes- (5/10) Novak Djokovic Under 3.5 Double Faults- 5/6 Ladbrokes- (5/10) Over 8.5 Breaks of Serve- 8/11 Ladbrokes- (4/10) Murray does look a bit overpriced to me in this one but haven't enough confidence in the Scot to back him in any way, shape or form. I do however expect at least 4 sets minimum in which we should see at least 38 games. In my opinion you can't put too much emphasis on that final here 12 months ago as Murray is playing quite a bit better than he did then as in all honesty, he didn't have to play brilliantly to reach the final last year. I have been relatively impressed with Murray though but this will be his first test of any magnitude. He couldn't have actually wished for a better draw to be honest, as he's avoided Monfils and Tsonga who were the only two guys that could have given Murray a match in his quarter. To have the draws he's had is well a walk in the park in truth and whether that is a benefit for the Scot I'm not sure. I think he could have perhaps done with being pushed a little further as Djokovic is better than all the guys Murray has faced put together really so he'll need to adapt his game and stick with the Serb from the first game, something he failed to do 12 months ago. There were signs against Ferrer and Hewitt to be honest that Djokovic isn't quite as invincible as he has been. Whether he is struggling from breathing problems I'm not sure but from the way he finished against Ferrer, it doesn't look to be a massive hindrance for the Serb. If Ferrer however had a better serve, he could have well taken a set off Djokovic and I think Murray has every chance to tomorrow if his serve improves like I expect it to do. As long as we see 4 decent sets minimum like I expect we will, this line should be covered. Now these double fault lines look way out of place to me. Even if this match lasted around 5 hours, I still wouldn't expect us to see 9 double faults in truth. Murray has only served 12 DFs in his 5 matches with Djokovic even less than that so the averages would suggest this line is too high. The threat to this line some would say perhaps is Murray as his first serve was missing against Nishikori. I'd imagine he has practiced a lot on his serve though over the past day or so and I don't think it will be anywhere near as bad as it was in the quarters. Another reason why we shouldn't see a lot of DFs is because both guys won't want to hand their opponent any free points on return so I would expect both guys to be pretty cautious with their second serve and not go for too much power on it. Now being the stupid idiot I am, I actually made the wrong bet with the Djokovic DFs and backed the overs by mistake so I'm going to ring them once I've finished this. As I'm changing it, don't be surprised if Djokovic serves about 8 DFs now ;) In all honesty though I don't envisage him serving 4 doubles in the match. He's usually pretty reliable with his second serve and the most doubles he has served so far is 3 in a match. Now you may argue that this match will be far more difficult and grueling for the Serb than his games so far but that shouldn't make too much difference in truth. In actual fact, as I've mentioned he'll be more cautious with his second serve in the tight moments against Murray, whereas in his previous matches, he's been so far ahead it really didn't matter if he went for it a bit more. He won't against Murray and regardless of his breathing problems or the outcome of this match, I don't fancy Djokovic to be throwing in too many DFs tomorrow. Lastly I'll back the market I really tend to like in the breaks of serve. Although I expect Murray to serve a lot better than he did, he's up against a far better returner and it needs no pointing out that Djokovic will create chances. Murray is always vulnerable to go missing for a service game once in a while and get broken by anyone really, let alone the best player in the world so Djokovic should break a fair bit. To be honest, the Serb has had his serve broken a wee bit over the past couple of weeks as well, moreso than he usually does anyway. Hewitt managed to do it 4 times and Ferrer did it twice, and you'd expect Murray to match Hewitt's performance on return at the very least. He'll have a lot more power and muscle than Ferrer had in the rallies and Murray being the great returner he is, should be able to create some chances as the match goes on. He managed to break Djokovic a few times last year even when he wasn't playing that well and this time round he should fancy himself a bit more with Lendl in his corner. There were 9 breaks in the Fed-Nadal match earlier with both guys missing quite a few break points. Both Djokovic and Murray should convert more than the two guys today and even if we only see 4 sets, it gives this line a good chance of coming through.

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Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012

Sport Tennis
Event Novak Djokovic - Andy Murray
Selection 2
Strength 10/10
Date 27/01/2012
Bookmaker/Price Nordicbet @ 3.25
Reasoning The 2nd semifinal of the Australian Open will have serbian Novak Djokovic taking on Andy Murray from the Great Britain for the 11th time. The score in head-to-head is 6-4 in favor of Nole, both winning 2 in the last 4 meetings. Murray couldn`t have started the year better, 11-0 and allready with a tournament won in Brisbane, beating Dolgopolov in the final in straight sets. The only set he lost so far here at Melbourne was in the first round against the young american Ryan Harrison, a very talented player that I`m not surprised that he did, even against Andy, then Vasselin, Llodra (Kukushkin retired) and Nishikori. On the other side Djokovic now number 1 in the world 5-0 this year, beating Lorenzi, Giraldo, Mahut, Hewitt and Ferrer in the previous rounds. In this meeting although Nole is very hot, not long ago dethroned Nadal from the top spot but what I observe in the meetings between these two is that in the last 6 meetings the player who has been successful was Murray, winning 4 times against just 2 of the serbian. Everybody knows the deffensive skills of Andy and I believe he can make a good match here and win it.

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Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012

"They" ... the bookmakers are offering such desirable odds because the "softcore" tennis punters of this World are lumping money on her, they hear a commercial name and they back it, the people who actually follow tennis all year around on the other hand know better. ;)
Oh my lord. So if I backed Maria in this match as I see value in her with such odds, I'm just a guy that saw her Nike commercial or whatever she was in. Been watching tennis for last 10 years and I know both girls very well and putting hard-hitting Sharapova as a underdog against a girl that was shivering while serving for the match against Kim and approaching her first EVER Grand Slam final, when Sharapova won her first one 7 years ago is just inviting me to bet on the Russian. They both play a lot of double faults and great power they generate causes sometimes horrific unforced errors. It's going to be a war or pure firepower, girl who will feel more confident will make less mistakes and even if Azarenka was amazing past few months I think Sharapova got more experience to out fire younger Belarus girl. It's a tight match, in my opinion 55/45 on Sharapova and as bookies put her as a underdog some of my pennies lay on Maria. They both can win this and whoever it's going to be I won't be surprised as there's no favourite in a clash like this.

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Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012

Either your being pedantic or simply shorted sighted? "They" ... the bookmakers are offering such desirable odds because the "softcore" tennis punters of this World are lumping money on her, they hear a commercial name and they back it, the people who actually follow tennis all year around on the other hand know better. ;) Its the same for when Djokovic became injured, the commentators on EuroSport over-reacted and lots of people watching started backing Ferrer, the odds for Novak to win became juicy and the ones you knew Novak as having the heart of lion backed him and it paid off. If Sharapova beats Azarenka, for me, that will be as big, if not bigger than Murray ousting Djokovic. ;)
What utter nonsense. Screen print of your bet on Aza then if Maria has ''no chance''

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Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012 Gutted with a capital G that I missed the final 2 sets of the match earlier. Managed to watch the first 3 but then had to rush off to uni. Kept checking my phone every 2 seconds to see the score :lol From what I saw, God knows how Murray didn't win. Djokovic looked like he could well retire when I was watching it, really looked like he could collapse at any moment. If someone could shed some light into the final 2 sets that would be great as I would have fancied Murray massively after going 2-1 up. Watched the highlights and looks as though Djokovic found a second wind but to be honest, I'd rather Nadal was facing the Serb than Murray. The tournament looked to have been made for Murray with his draw and Djokovic being well below par and I'm pretty confident Nadal will beat Djokovic now after seeing how the Serb played. A couple of really good finals though in store. With regards to the bets I was extremely lucky. Mentioned in my post that I'd accidentally placed the wrong bet and took the 'overs' instead of the 'unders' on the Djokovic double faults. Well I tried to ring last night and cancel the bet, only to be told that their customer service was down and they couldn't do it until the morning if I rung then. Obviously being the good student I am, I wasn't up till around 9/10ish when the match had started. I did however send an email last night telling them what had happened, but seeing as it was a winner, they let me have the winnings which was extremely fortunate. They did try and make up for it by settling the total breaks of serve bet as a loser which it obviously wasn't so I've been onto them about that and it's been settled as a winner now. Very very lucky to be perfectly honest, as I didn't envisage either guy throwing in anywhere near the amount of DFs that they did. I'm not going to include those winnings from the Djokovic DFs mistake into my P/L as it's a bit stupid to do so. With it being the lengthy match it was though, I secured some profit from it and now stand on +26.17 for the tournament with Nadal into the final. Will deal with the women's final in another post later when I've had a proper look at it.

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Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012 Quite insulted you questioned my honesty, but as you wish.

What utter nonsense. Screen print of your bet on Aza then if Maria has ''no chance''
Quite insulted you can question my honesty, but as you wish. 71 on her with the Muzza Joker match going to more than 3 sets. inyourface.png Uploaded with ImageShack.us

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Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012 Sharapova UNDER 2.5 aces @ 2.00 (Ladbrokes:3pts) Gonna oppose Sharapova hitting at least 3 aces in tomorrow's final. I don't think her serve is quite the weapon it used to be a few years back, it actually tends to be one of her weaknesses these days. Added to that this slow-ish hard surface against a good returner in Azarenka, its worth a go at these odds I think. SF: hit 0 aces vs Kvitova playing 13 service games(3 sets). QF: hit 3 aces vs Makarova playing 9 service games(2 sets). 4 RD: hit 1 ace vs Lisicki playing 13 service games(3 sets). 3 RD: hit 1 ace vs Kerber playing 7 service games(2 sets). 2 RD: hit 2 aces vs Hampton playing 6 service games(2 sets) 1 RD: hit 3 aces vs Dulko playing 7 service games(2 sets) Not exactly been firing them down, even when she's blasted her opponents. Azarenka is a good returner so gonna have a small dabble on it for some interest in the match.

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Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012 Just how much will last night have taken out of Novak ? I have him as hypothetical favourite against Nadal, but worry about Nadal having an extra 24 hours recovery time and having played a lot less tennis. I'd like to take him @ 1.72, but worry about the freshness factor.

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Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012 Tried to look for a bit of value in the women's final as I'm not totally sure what way it will go. If Sharapova plays how she did against Kvitova she'll lose in straights but she has the experience of a grand slam final which could be crucial. If I had to back anyone it would be Azarenka but not confident enough in the outright. Am taking a couple of bets in the final though. Maria Sharapova Under 2.5 aces- Evens Ladbrokes- (3/10) Maria Sharapova (-4.5 km/h) fastest serve to beat Victoria Azarenka- 11/10 Ladbrokes- (3/10) Can't add much to what IAG has said about Sharapova and her serve as he's mentioned all the relevant stats. She hasn't been hitting them for fun exactly and has only managed to hit a maximum of 3 in any of her matches. Against Kvitova it was the Russian's serve that let Kvitova back into the match and almost lost it for Maria so I'm not sure how much confidence she'll have behind it tomorrow. Like IAG has said, the slow courts don't help either girl in the ace department and Azarenka returns well even if Maria finds some decent first serves. I do think the Russian is overpriced with this serve speed handicap though. Early on in the tournament, she wasn't serving particularly quickly and Azarenka was actually firing her serve in quicker than Maria but Sharapova's speed of serve has picked up. Against Makarova and Kvitova, she hit a 173km/h serve and before that, she was hitting serves of 176 and 174km/h and it she hits those kind of speeds, she should cover the handicap. Azarenka's quickest serve over the past couple of weeks has been a 178km/h serve but since the fourth round, she hasn't mustered a serve of over 170km/h so whilst her serve speed has declined a touch, Sharapova's has increased so hopefully that trend continues in the final. Sharapova I still expect to throw in tons of DFs, but I'd fancy her to hit a couple of pretty quick serves somewhere in the match whereas I think Azarenka will be a little more solid and play the percentages a bit more. Certainly wouldn't be having this handicap above evens IMO so I'll have Sharapova with small stakes on the handicap. Actually having my first doubles bet of the tournament as well. L Paes/R Stepanek to beat B Bryan/M Bryan- 2/1 Bluesquare- (3/10) Think Paes and Stepanek look extremely underrated going into the final here as the two brothers really haven't looked all that impressive in the tournament. They haven't hammered any of the pairs that they have played and a 6-0 set lost to Fleming and Hutchins really is pretty shocking to be honest. They've also been taken to deciding sets in their last two matches against Fyrstenberg/Matkowski and Lindstedt/Tecau and had to work really hard to win those matches and from those results, I'm not overly convinced about their game at the minute. Paes/Stepanek have lost just the one set so far en route to the final, that coming in the semis against Nestor/Mirnyi who are an extremely good doubles pairing. That win should have given them a real boost ahead of this final, and Paes is looking to complete his collection with the Aussie Open and with the experience of both Paes and Stepanek, I feel they have a real chance here. They narrowly lost against the Bryans a couple of weeks back in a couple of tight tie breaks and with the American brothers seemingly struggling to find top form this week, I'll back the experienced duo of Paes and Stepanek to take the title here.

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Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012 Victoria Azarenka vs Maria Sharapova over 21.5 games 8/11 skybet Azarenka to win first set 7-5 12/1 skybet i think this has three sets written all over it the two best women players left in the tournament one aiming for their first grand slam and the other has not won one for while so this set to be quite a battle you would say azarenka has been playing better but i think nerves might play a part so i think the first set might be tight

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Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012 Got a really nice multi for these championship matches: Azarenka / Bryan Brothers / Nadal = $5.43 at Centrebet. 1. Azarenka has destroyed Sharapova the last two times she has played her on Hard Court. Both games 64 61. 2. The Bryan Brothers are the best in the business. That's all the explanation I have needed to pull the trigger on them in the final. 3. I just don't see Djokavic who was supposedly injured in last night's 5 hour marathon v Murray, matching it with a refreshed and waiting Nadal. A Nadal that knocked off the best in the modern generation, Big Roger!

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Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012 Paes/Stepanek vs Bryan / Bryan The American twins pair it is clearly overrated for me here. They had problems in every match and their confidence is not at the highest moment. In Sydney they won in two tiebreaks against Paes/Stepanek, but I think these two guys are too experienced for not understanding what has to be done today! I think they will surprise everyone here and will beat the Americans! Paes/ Stepanek to win @ 3.00 with Sportingbet

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Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012

Sharapova vs Azarenka - Azarenka to Win @ 4/5 with Titan Bet - 5 Points Not a chance here for Maria, she can shreek all she likes she isn't going to stop the double faults. Azarenka doesn't make the number of errors Kvitova does and has an attacking game to boot, she's also unlike Kvitova against Maria, going to capatalize on her chances. Nailed on for me, nerves in her first slam final? Ugh, nah, she dealt with the semi final and the Australian crowd comprehensively, don't see why this will be any different, against an extremely dodgy server atm in Sharapova.
Annihilation, absolute annihilation. :D :D :D :D :D

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Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012 Just wanna say that this forum is not a competition... it's not against eachother it's against the bookies... It was a good pick for sure. I took azarenka with handicap just to make certain. But saying you are all over azarenka and then putting just 71 pounds on her, you don't have much to loose :p

Think a few people here need to apologise. :rollin

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Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012

Just wanna say that this forum is not a competition... it's not against eachother it's against the bookies... It was a good pick for sure. I took azarenka with handicap just to make certain. But saying you are all over azarenka and then putting just 71 pounds on her' date=' you don't have much to loose :p[/quote'] I put more in play when she was 2-0 down. I'm not competing with people, but when people berate me for stating my opinion as a player having no chance and the result being nailed on, its kind of... you know....? Anyway, its fine, happy on my profit.

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Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012 Bryan bro's vs Stepanek and Paes - Over 22.5 games @ 5/6 with Paddy Power - Stake - £30 Bryan bro's haven't been in the best form they've ever been in and the combination of the tricky, unorthodox Stepanek and experienced Paes will prove a tough nut to crack.

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