Tennis: Australian Open 2012

[Atko]

Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012 Okay, I shall make a couple of bets here. There a no promises these will all be winners but I feel there are a few juicy little numbers out there. I'll start with the handicaps ... - Radek Stepanek -6 games AH (v Nicolas Mahut) @ 2.28 with Pinnacle 3pts Big odds but on a line that can be covered fairly cosily. Mahut's not a man to take note of unless in France or on grass. Last time I checked, Melbourne didn't match either of those. His game is based on serve and volley and when that fails, he collapses like a cheap garden table. Stepanek's always pretty handy in Australia, has many different angles to his game and is generally the more sophisticated player. Mahut won their only meeting six years ago on grass so disregard that. He's nowhere near that level. Fancy the man they call 'sexy' to deliver the goods. - Lleyton Hewitt -6 games AH (v Cedrik-Marcel Stebe) @ 2.26 with Pinnacle 3pts Stebe, in time, will be a good player, but like Grolsch, he's not ready yet. Flakier than a dandruff-infested man in the desert on serve, Hewitt will eat him up on that wing. Rallies should be closer and Hewitt is no titan on serve either but he's not got too many Oz Opens left and this is a gift of a tie for him. Hewitt lost to a few folk early in the year but Troicki and Gasquet are much, much better than Stebe. He'll be dead up for this, night session against a young German punk, and I reckon he'll put on a show. - Mikhail Youzhny -6.5 games (v Andrey Golubev) @ 2.10 with Pinnacle 3pts Youzhny leads the H2H 4-0 against a man whose form dipped more than a ... erm, big dipper (sorry) last year. Golubev's fall from grace was so spectacular he had to qualify for the open. Both men can go cringeworthily missing in matches but Youzhny is the far more accomplished player. I saw him play Nadal in Doha and he looked in good nick, while the malnourished-looking Kazakh has dropped sets to people not even I, the oracle of tennis knowledge, have heard of. Decent line this again. - Xavier Malisse - 4.5 games (v Eduoard Roger-Vasselin) @ 2.01 with Pinnacle 3pts You know how there's always a token black man in movies? Well, Roger-Vasselin is your token Challenger-level man in a slam. I can't remember the last one he didn't appear in. He normally disappears in Round 1, like an extra in Titanic (sorry if this offends anyone afflicted by the Tuscan tragedy - it shouldn't though - and even if it does, you should have more important things on your mind than reading a betting forum). ERV, who sounds like a mix between a lorry manufacturer and a sexually transmitted disease, isn't as exciting as that. No power in a fairly average game. He admits himself he's pish against men who hit the ball hard and Malisse does that. He also beat ERV indoors two years ago in straights and is a classier player. May sound like a broken record but he should win, and the line allows a dropped set, or maybe even two if luck is on my side. - Alex Bogomolov Jnr -7.5 games (v Daniel Gimeno-Traver) @ 1.99 with Pinnacle 3pts We don't really rate Bogomolov Jnr here at the Chateau d'Atko, but we rate Gimeno-Traver worse. Our spies in customs (actually, a previous poster said this) tell us that DGT arrived in Oz only a few days ago. Not much time to prepare. Bogey's a vastly improved player and tends to gobble up this type of opponent. He's a seed so has a chance of making a few bob here. DGT is more effective, and by that I mean more likely to have a chance of winning a match, on clay, and unless the American-Russian goes missing, he should win this easily. Something tells me DGT is here for the dosh, the sun, and perhaps the dingos. - Gilles Simon -8.5 games (v Danai Udomchoke) @ 1.952 with Pinnacle 3pts Whenever I think of Udomchoke, it makes me imagine a child's cough mixture. I've actually seen this Thai man play a few times and I'm pretty astonished he's made it through qualies. End of the line here though. Simon might rape him here but he probably won't. Saying that, Gilles is probably worth a 6-2 or a 6-1 somewhere in this match, because he'll counterpunch poor Danai until he gets fed up and hits the ball wide, long, or into the net. Should be simple for Simon here. A few dogs to take tonight too, just for the banter ... - James Duckworth (v Jurgen Zopp) @ 2.75 with bet365 1pt Not much between these two in rankings and young Duckworth must be delighted with playing Zopp in R1. I mean, that's the easiest draw he could have hoped for. Don't think the Oz man should be this high in the odds and has a good chance. He beat Mahut recently and has been playing a higher calibre of opponent to the Estonian. Worth a bash at an over-inflated price. - Ryan Sweeting (v Matthais Bachinger) @ 2.00 with bet365 1pt Hmmm, hmmmm, this match should be close. Bachinger's somehow crept into the top 100 but that's a mistake, a quirk of the rankings system. Same could be said of Sweeting but Ryan at least has a bit more chutzpah in his strokes. Sweeting, for me, is the better player. He's got more power and a better serve, although that's not saying a great deal. The American ought to be favourite though and the fact that he isn't merits a little rocket ... - Pablo Andujar (v Igor Kunitsyn) @ 2.75 with bet365 1pt Andujar is a clay courter and plays like one on a hard court but, he's capable of winning this. Kunitsyn is a headcase, and has started the season poorer than an a Eritrean barley farmer. Andujar is more solid from the back of the court and has more variety. Once again, the odds look wrong. Kunitsyn is more au fait with a hard court but listen, Andujar's the classier player. Worth a small play too. - Mikhail Kukushkin (v Guillermo Garcia-Lopez) @ 2.62 with bet365 1pt GGL is another one of those players who has the ability to totally self-destruct. Kukushkin put in a nice performance against Murray a few weeks back and is decent on a hard court. He'll scrap and graft and scratch and claw and might get under GGL's skin. The Spaniard has beaten him before but he's such a frail player that he's worth opposing at these odds. Best of luck to you. We'll need it :p

[ImLovinIt]

Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012

- Mikhail Kukushkin (v Guillermo Garcia-Lopez) @ 2.62 with bet365 1pt GGL is another one of those players who has the ability to totally self-destruct. Kukushkin put in a nice performance against Murray a few weeks back and is decent on a hard court. He'll scrap and graft and scratch and claw and might get under GGL's skin. The Spaniard has beaten him before but he's such a frail player that he's worth opposing at these odds. Best of luck to you. We'll need it :p

I like this myself, but then I saw they played over just 2 weeks ago now and GGL took him out in straights. Still, I think I'll take a handicap. :hope

[Atko]

Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012

I like this myself, but then I saw they played over just 2 weeks ago now and GGL took him out in straights. Still, I think I'll take a handicap. :hope

I think you've got your calendars in a fankle, ImLovinIt. They met a year ago in Doha. Still, GGL won and that's the most important part of the whole shebang. I think Kukushin has improved since then, though.

[ImLovinIt]

Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012

- James Duckworth (v Jurgen Zopp) @ 2.75 with bet365 1pt Not much between these two in rankings and young Duckworth must be delighted with playing Zopp in R1. I mean, that's the easiest draw he could have hoped for. Don't think the Oz man should be this high in the odds and has a good chance. He beat Mahut recently and has been playing a higher calibre of opponent to the Estonian. Worth a bash at an over-inflated price.

Like this too. I watched James at the Australian Open play off tournament in December and he got all the way to the final, losing to Matosevic ... who for me is better than Zopp on these surfaces. Zopp's predominantly an indoor player. Another handicap for me in play. Good luck bro :hope :ok

[ImLovinIt]

Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012

I think you've got your calendar's in a fankle' date=' ImLovinIt. They met a year ago in Doha. Still, GGL won and that's the most important part of the whole shebang. I think Kukushin has improved since then, though.[/quote'] Backing him Kushkin now.

[ImLovinIt]

Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012 Kukishkin vs GGL - Kukishkin to win @ 7/4 with BetFred - 2 Points Just a follow up on Atko's post. Kukishkin is definetely one of the most improved players of 2011 and for me last year was something he will certainly build on, I remember watching him really causing Nishi some major problems in and around the same tournament Nishi beat Tsonga. GGL is a headcase and I can see an upset here. Would have backed this but read the date of their last match played wrong.

[fishy25]

Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012 Always seem to start the slams poorly of late. Pretty bad night for me in truth, with the main bets all falling victim to some lackluster performances; Berdych and Jovanovski spring to mind. Thankfully Mattek-Sands, Lepchenko and Wozniacki did the business to save me of complete embarrassment. Couldn't call an ATP match last night to save my life so ended up with -12.93pts for the night. Only positive things to take out of it were the comebacks by Del Porto and Dolgopolov really otherwise would have been a disaster. Some good calls from others though, particularly Slider with Ormaechea winning at a tasty price :clap Onto tonight/tomorrow morning then and quite a few have caught my eye. Matthew Ebden (-6.5 games) to beat Joao Souza- 4/6 Bet365- (6/10) Quite where this line has come from I don't know as I still probably would have taken it at the (8.5) mark so this is a bonus. What else Souza is doing here apart from collecting some cash I find hard to imagine. He plays very very little tennis on anything other than clay and hasn't ever won a grand slam match on the hard courts so it's hard to envisage him having anything at his disposal to trouble an Aussie who has been in good form. Ebden beat Granollers last week in Sydney and then pushed Baghdatis all the way to a final set tie break. He also took a set of Stepanek the week before in Brisbane so he should have a ton on confidence and see this as a great chance to get to the second round in his home tournament. He had some really good results on the hard courts last season, picking up wins over Simon, Harrison and Petzschner whilst he was extremely competitive against Nadal on the grass which show's what he is capable of. This really should be all about the Aussie in front of the crowd and if he gets off to a good start, Souza may well just play for the sake of it, knowing that the clay tournaments aren't far off and that's where he'll pick up his ranking points. Hard to look past Ebden here and he should win this with ease. Alex Bogomolov (-6.5 games) to beat Daniel Gimeno-Traver- 4/5 Bet365- (4/10) Unless something unexpected happens or something goes very wrong in this match, Bogomolov should win this pretty comprehensively. Gimeno-Traver away from the clay is pretty rotten anyways but given he has had no match practice, how he's in any shape to trouble Bogomolov escapes me. The Spaniard lost all 7 matches he played on the hard courts last season, winning just 3 sets which shows how he struggles away from the clay. Bogomolov is pretty solid all round and he plays his best stuff on the hard courts. He didn't qualify for the Aussie Open 12 months ago so he will see this as a great opportunity to gain some ranking points and some cash which should motivate him. Regardless of the points or money, under normal circumstances you'd favour the Russian, and given Gimeno-Traver hasn't even played a match this season, it's hard to see him making much of an impression here. Andy Murray (-9.5 games) to beat Ryan Harrison- 10/11 Ladbrokes- (3/10) I think this is the perfect first round match for Murray for a couple of reasons. The first being the fact that he could have had an easier draw. That may sound strange if you're a fan of the Brit and naturally you would have hoped he got a qualifier in round one but getting a decent opponent in Harrison may well suit him. Usually in the slams, when up against decent players, he has a tendency to be slightly more aggressive and really put his foot on the gas if he senses an opportunity whereas against guys who he is expected to wipe the floor with, you'll often see him be extremely passive. That's not when Murray is at his best and I don't expect him to be like that against Harrison. The young American is a promising talent, and should break into the top 50 over the next year or so you would imagine so Murray will know he'll have to play well. I think another factor to consider is his new coach and he could well look to show how smooth the transition has been with switching coaches and put on a bit of a classy performance. Realistically Murray knows, and I'm sure Ivan Lendl has reminded him that he doesn't want to be messing about on court in the early rounds considering he may well have to face Monfils and Tsonga, before playing Djokovic in the semis so he'll need to be well rested to come through those matches. I just think that under Lendl, we could well see a more ruthless side to Murray, much on the contrary to what we have seen from him in the past. He knows Harrison can play and that should in turn make the Scot up his own performance. If he does that and gets going, I think he'll win with a fair bit to spare in this one like he needs to. Lleyton Hewitt (-5.5 games) to beat Cedrik-Marcel Stebe- Evens Coral- (3/10) Yeah Atko's already mentioned this one and I told myself I wouldn't back the Aussie with a handicap higher than the (5.5) line given so I've decided to take it. Although only winning one match this season, he's preparation for his home tournament isn't bad at all. He's managed to take sets of Troicki, Verdasco and Gasquet, all guys of a higher level than the German he faces here. Stebe has lost to Nishikori and Reynolds in straights sets this season so I'm not convinced how much confidence he will have coming into this one. There's no doubting he has talent, but whether he is ready to show that on the big stage I'm not so sure. This is Hewitt's tournament, where the crowd will be behind him all the way and that could get to the German youngster a touch. I remember last year's match when Hewitt lost in that epic match against Nalbandian and it must have really hurt him. I fancy him to make up for that loss here and join fellow countryman Bernard Tomic in round two. Marinko Matosevic vs Gael Monfils- Over 29.5 games- 4/5 Ladbrokes- (3/10) Until Monfils turns into the most professional player on the tour, I'll be taking lines like this on him all day long. He is one of the most naturally gifted players on the tour and the best to watch for his remarkable shot selections but his focus is of a 2 year oldchild attempting to complete a rubik's cube; he just seem to get bored and makes it more interesting than it should be. This is of course great to watch, but infuriating for fans of the Frenchman as it sometimes costs him dearly. Undoubtedly he'll try his ridiculous shots in this one as well which will give Matosevic chances. The Australian has a big serve and some pretty solid groundstrokes and has plenty of experience so he should be well up for this encounter. This bet is more because of Monfils and his clown like antics though. We saw last year how he makes things harder for himself. He dropped sets against Gil and Zemlja last year in the slams and there's really nothing to suggest Matosevic can't hold his own and win a set himself given Monfils' reputation. A couple for the women as well and it's something new I'm trying. Not the women, the bets... Shahar Peer vs Isabella Holland- 4 Or More Service Breaks in 1st set- 13/8 William Hill- (3/10) Never taken any bet like this before but it just stood out to me and given how in the women's game a break of serve is essentially a hold for the men, the price looks high. I'm taking it first with my beloved Shahar who it's fair to say didn't have the best season last year. She looked to be struggling with something when I watched her, whether it was an injury niggle or just a lack of confidence I'm not sure but something certainly wasn't right. She's started better this season though, making the semis in Hobart so hopefully she can build on that. I wanted to back her on the handicap initially but I'm not still not completely confident in her game yet so we'll see how she gets on. She should however hammer Holland, a girl who was double bagelled last week in Sydney by Jelena Dokic. That bodes well for the bet I'm taking though as she failed to hold her serve once which certainly helps our cause, and like I've said, I'm still not totally convinced by Peer yet. She's started to look more like her old self, but her serve when I've seen bits of her, still isn't working that well which should give the Aussie girl some chances I would imagine so at least 4 breaks of serve is well within reach I think for the two to cover. Gisela Dulko vs Maria Sharapova- 4 Or More Service Breaks in 1st set- 7/5 William Hill- (3/10) Felt I was obliged to take this kind of bet in a Sharapova match. A Sharapova who hasn't played this year so it's near enough impossible to know what kind of condition or form she's in. If she comes on court and hits ace after ace and winner after winner fair dos, but I'll back she doesn't and we see double fault after double fault. It usually takes the Russian a little bit of time to really get going in her early matches, and that is when we see her serve go missing so Dulko although being a very capable player, may not have to do a great deal on return to break serve a couple of times. The Argentinian also however hasn't played a match this year so she could well be rusty at the start of the match as well and Sharapova on return, with her power should be able to create chances. Given the fact both girls haven't had any match practice, it should take a bit of time for them to find their range so it could well be a nervy opening in which I'll hope we see a fair few breaks.

[tadley]

Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012

Matthew Ebden (-6.5 games) to beat Joao Souza- 4/6 Bet365- (6/10) Quite where this line has come from I don't know as I still probably would have taken it at the (8.5) mark so this is a bonus. What else Souza is doing here apart from collecting some cash I find hard to imagine. He plays very very little tennis on anything other than clay and hasn't ever won a grand slam match on the hard courts so it's hard to envisage him having anything at his disposal to trouble an Aussie who has been in good form. Ebden beat Granollers last week in Sydney and then pushed Baghdatis all the way to a final set tie break. He also took a set of Stepanek the week before in Brisbane so he should have a ton on confidence and see this as a great chance to get to the second round in his home tournament. He had some really good results on the hard courts last season, picking up wins over Simon, Harrison and Petzschner whilst he was extremely competitive against Nadal on the grass which show's what he is capable of. This really should be all about the Aussie in front of the crowd and if he gets off to a good start, Souza may well just play for the sake of it, knowing that the clay tournaments aren't far off and that's where he'll pick up his ranking points. Hard to look past Ebden here and he should win this with ease.

Ebden to beat Joao Souza 3-0 11/10 Blue Square Got to concur with everything you say here Fishy. Joao Souza is an out and out clay courter who shouldn't trouble Ebden much. Ebden has been mixing it with some good players lately and performing admirably. He should have way too much and I believe the straight sets win at 11/10 offers good value.

[dabic]

Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012 ATP AO 03:00 Raonic M. - Volandri F. ------------------------------- under 27.5 @ pinnacle 1.92 5pts Well this looks easy in my option, Raonic has a big serv and no way that Volandri can break him really no way, he event will not get a break point! Volandri on other hand has a very slow and girly serv and hard courts for pipo are just bad area to be he is from 2008 till now 0-6 on hard! Raonic allready this season 4-1 score surely here in three sets he can settle this! Volandri 0-2 this season retired in last match!

[dabic]

Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012 WTA AO 03:00 Larsson J. - Kanepi K. -------------------------------- Kanepi K. (-6.5) @ paddy power 7pts Kanepi is a big favorite to even take this tourniments in my eyes, this first round schoud be easy for her as Larsson schowed poor game on hard courts in last season going 5-10 on hard and this season started 0-2, Kanepi 5-0 this season won in brisbane and she schoud crisue here...their only meating 6-2 6-0 for Kanepi!

[Xios]

Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012 I'm going for this large accumulator at my local will hill shop: Mens Australian Open ******************** Stephane Robert v Kei Nishikori* Daniel Gimeno-Traver v Alex Jr. Bogomolov* Santiago Giraldo* v Matteo Viola Mikhail Youzhny* v Andrey Golubev Janko Tipsarevic* v Dmitry Tursunov Nicolas Mahut v Radek Stepanek* Joao Souza v Matthew Ebden* Frederico Gil v Ivan Dodig* Julien Benneteau* v Karol Beck Robin Haase v Andy Roddick* Denis Istomin v Jo-Wilfried Tsonga* Tomas Berdych* v Olivier Rochus Flavio Cipolla v Feliciano Lopez* Pere Riba v Philipp Kohlschreiber* Ivo Karlovic* v Carlos Berlocq Mardy Fish* v Alejandro Falla Alexandr Dolgopolov* v Tobias Kamke Womens Australian Open ********************** Sabine Lisicki* v Stefanie Voegele Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova* v Klara Zakopalova Dominika Cibulkova* v Magdalena Rybarikova Vera Zvonareva* v Alexandra Dulgheru Roberta Vinci* v Alexandra Cadantu Samantha Stosur* v Sorana Cirstea Virginie Razzano v Marion Bartoli* Andrea Hlavackova v Nadia Petrova* Valeria Savinykh v Sara Errani* Madison Keys v Jie Zheng* Francesca Schiavone* v Romina Oprandi Lesya Tsurenko v Daniela Hantuchova* Kai-Chen Chang v Jelena Jankovic* Odds **** 140.2195042316244 / 1 (star by name indicates my pick) What you guys think?

[RocknRolla]

Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012 ^^ I think that no one cares about your accumulator as only person who could benefit from it is you. In fact, no one cares for non-reasoned bets on these boards as they not helping to any of us! Keep you bets for yourself, or give us some reasoning behind them :ok

[DHorozov]

Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012

Sport	Tennis
Event	Thomaz Belucci - Dudi Sela
Selection	Dudi Sela
Strength	10/10
Date	17/01/2012
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 1.81
Reasoning	Dudi Sela is a little favorite in this game and there are few reasons about that. Thomaz Bellucci is on 37th place in the ATP ranking at this moment, but hard courts are not his favorite surface for sure. In 2011 Bellucci played only eighteen games at hard surface and won only seven of them, while for example at his best courts - clay - he had 14 wins and nine defeats. So far in his career the Brasilian have played 107 games at hard courts (54-53) and 322 at clay (212-110). In the previous years at Australian Open Thomaz Bellucci have never reached more than second round (twice in 2011 and 2010 and also one defeat in his first game in 2009). Dudi Sela on other hand is number 75 in the ranking, but his favorite surface is exactly the hard courts, where last year he had 25 win and 14 defeats. In his first tournament of the year at Chennai Sela reached third round. He won against Fognini (6-0; 6-1) and Paire (4-6; 6-2; 6-4), before losing against Raonic in two sets (6-7; 3-6). So far in his career the Israelian have 245 wins and 124 defeat at hard courts. In the last two years at Australian Open Sela lost in the first round (against Del Potro in 2011 and against Sergeyev in 2010). In 2009 he reached third round and this is his best achievement in Australia so far. The two players have played twice between each other so far and Dudi Sela have won both games. First he eliminated Bellucci in the first round of US Open in 2011 after five set drama. Later that year he won in straight sets in the Challenger Tour Finals (Indoor).

[slider24]

Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012 Igor Kunitsyn - Pablo Andujar OVER 37.5 GAMES @5/6 BET 365 Strength(6/10) This looks like it will be a long old slog of match. Kunitysn favourite but he's better on faster courts, and he very rarely takes care of anyone comfortably on the hard courts at major tournaments and win or lose he's invariably involved in marathons. These courts are playing fairly slow and with the Andujar being a natural clay courter and being comfortable sparring from the back of the court, he should feel confident exchanging with someone like Kunitysn who lacks the power to really blow him off court, like Malisse did last year. Andujar has also improved on hard courts in the last year or so and should put in a good account of himself. All in all, this line looks achievable if both play to type. :hope

[Xios]

Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012

^^ I think that no one cares about your accumulator as only person who could benefit from it is you. In fact, no one cares for non-reasoned bets on these boards as they not helping to any of us! Keep you bets for yourself, or give us some reasoning behind them :ok

That's not bitter at all is it? Whether it wins or loses it's not about that - this is a forum to discuss. No one made you reply to me did they? As for reasoning, they're all favourites within a margin of 1.10-1.28 equating to a minimum chance of winning (individual selections) at 73.33%. I bet purely on a mathematical basis.

[bigson22]

Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012 Xios - I think you have more change of seeing Lord Lucan riding past your window on Red Rum chasing Gary Glitter in a mankini than getting a 30 person tennis bet up ffs! Fair play to you for trying tho!

[Xios]

Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012 It's worth a shot. I guess what I'm asking is would you bet on each of those selections individually? If yes, why not accumulate?

[RocknRolla]

Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012

What you guys think?

Thats just what I thought! Sorry for off topic guys.

[slider24]

Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012

It's worth a shot. I guess what I'm asking is would you bet on each of those selections individually? If yes' date=' why not accumulate?[/quote'] The men's accumulator looks pretty good to be fair, I might try it myself :lol I would be amazed if the women's ones came off though. I would expect at least three of the favourites to lose. Cirstea for example could give Stosur a match.

[Xios]

Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012 Thanks slider, some good feedback. I might just lay on the mens then! Was considering pulling out 5 of them, but I guess I'll let them ride! Are there any in the mens you doubt?

[slider24]

Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012 Falla always pulls a performance out of nowhere in Grand Slams, and he could push Fish. Berlocq might surprise a bit against Karlovic, could frustrate the big guy. Karol Beck is another one who couldd raise his level against someone like Benneteau. Those matches could go into fourth or fifth sets, but I would be surprised if the underdogs actually came out on top.

[Atko]

There's often one little greasy cnut that comes out of nowhere, takes your accy by the jaffas and kills it stone-dead with no remorse. It's often the one you least expected to go tits up. I do quite like your list (men, not women, they're total headcases, the lot of them), but bookies often screech with glee when they see that sort of line. The odds are big for a reason. However, I'm gonna wager yours might just sneak through!

[slider24]

Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012 Roberta Vinci - 5.5 (A.Cadantu) x Monfils-Matosevic OVER 28.5 GAMES @ 7/4 BET 365 Strength (5/10) As Fishy mentioned, Monfils would probably contrive to lose a set against Ashleigh Barty if they played tomorrow. Last year he fell asleep against Federico Gil and lost a set, and in the first round against De Bakker was two sets down before coming back. Matosevic is capable of covering the line if Monfils switches off like he usually does. Roberta Vinci, despite poor form and not doing too great in Australia, should be far too strong for Cadantu, who has been spanked every time she's faced a top 30 ranked player. :hope

[Xios]

Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012 Okay sounds great, I was going (for the record) to remove the following, which I thought were 'wild' and may lose... Dodig Roddick Lopez Karlovic Dolgopolov

[amity]

Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012 I would also be somewhat wary of Berdych vs Rochus The little guy took out some big hitters last week, in particular Kohlschreiber, despite losing the first set Kohli is not unlike Berdych, albeit not as good a player Berds will probably oust him eventually but Rochus with the handicap could be a decent bet (unless the exertions of last week catch up on him)

[fishy25]

Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012 I must actually be going insane. Had a horrid day yesterday, taken a fair number already, but loads continue to interest me at closer inspection. Never taken this number of bets within two days of any tournament before :eek Milos Raonic (-9.5 games) to beat Filippo Volandri- 5/6 Bet365- (4/10) Providing the Canadian has fully recovered from the illness he has been suffering from at the start of the season, he shouldn't have too many problems against the Italian. Raonic as we know has one of the best serves in the game, backed up with a big forehand which won't give Volandri much time to settle or get into any rhythm. Although the courts are perhaps playing a touch slow, in an ideal world Volandri would want them a great deal slower as his preference lies with the clay. The only time you'll see him on anything but clay is for the slams and that's probably down to the prize money he can pick up. Whether he really expects to trouble his opponent is another matter and Raonic will frustrate the hell out of him. His serve and forehand are still big enough to hit through the Italian regardless of the courts and although Volandri may stay close for a set, I don't see him doing it for the duration and one easy set backed up with a couple of comfortable ones should allow Raonic to cover the handicap. Ricardo Mello to beat Roberto Bautista-Agut- 5/6 Coral- (3/10) I'd have Mello has a slightly bigger favourite than this really. He has far more experience when it comes to the grand slams as this is the first time Agut has qualified for the first round of any of the 4 slams. He did manage to upset Berankis in qualification and beat Mahut and Mannarino last year indoors but he hasn't got a lot to show apart from that. Mello hasn't reached the second round down under since 2005 but he'll feel he has a great chance this year. He actually performed well in all 4 slams last year, taking Simon to 5 sets at the US Open, Fish to 4 sets in Paris, Bellucci all the way 12 months ago at the Aussie Open and upset Dancevic at Wimbledon to make the second round so think it's fair to say he was unlucky with his draws. This year for the first time he is favourite though and if he performs like he did last year, he should have too much for the Spaniard. Igor Kunitsyn vs Pablo Andujar- Over 37.5 games- 5/6 Bet365- (3/10) Agree with slider on the overs here and can't really add much more to what he's said. Kunitsyn should beat the Spaniard on the hard courts, but you certainly wouldn't fancy him to do it easily, not judging from last year's performances anyway. In 3/4 of his first round matches in the grand slams, he played at least 4 sets that all covered this line set here whilst as the courts are playing a little slower, it could suit Andujar and allow him to make a game of it. The Spaniard himself played a couple of 5 set matches in the first round of Wimbledon and the US open and if both guys repeat their performances of last year, this one could also go the same way. Lukas Rosol vs Philipp Petzschner- Over 37.5 games- 5/6 Bet365- (3/10) We saw a whole load of matches go to 5 matches yesterday so I'm hopeful this, like the Kunitsyn-Andujar match will be a tight affair as well. Petzschner is another guy who seems to be no stranger to a long 4/5 set match in a grand slam as he played 5 sets in his openers to Tsonga and Ramos at the Aussie and US open, whilst he lost in a tight 4 set match to Soderling at Wimbledon. In fact even in the season before last, he played 5 sets in his opener in Australia the in 2009 played 2 5 setters in America so he clearly has some sort of sponsorship deal with 5 setters and gets paid on commission every time his matches go to 5 sets :lol Rosol was majorly out of form at the back end of last season but he looks to be improving again this year as he beat Ramos-Vidalgo and ran Troicki close as well. He has a big serve which will help him pick up some cheap points and this could well be a serve fest for a while between these two. Petzschner you would fancy to win but given his history you find it hard to say he will do it in a straight forward fashion so I'll back Rosol to win a set minimum here and back these two to play out a thrilling encounter. James Duckworth to beat Jurgen Zopp- 7/4 Bet365- (2/10) This one has already been mentioned as well but the more I look at it, the more I really can't understand the odds and wouldn't be surprised if this became a public bet nearer the time. Zopp just about came through qualification, winning all 3 of his matches in 3 sets to 3 guys ranked outside the top 200. Now Duckworth isn't any better than that according to ranking, but he's still a youngster and will have home support with him today. He recently beat Mahut and was competitive against Simon so he has been playing at a far higher level recently than his Estonian opponent here and if he maintains the standard he has been playing at, he should be in with a reasonable chance.

[Torque]

Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012 In regards to the Duckworth versus Zopp match, I also like the look of this. It reminds me of Sock versus Gicquel at the US Open last year. Sock was an even bigger outsider in that match and won. Not much of a reason to like the bet I guess but it seems a similar sort of match. Also wanted to give thanks to those who take the time to post up such detailed analysis - it is really helpful and is appreciated. I may try myself one day, but honestly I think I would be put to shame by some on here :( - the level of knowledge and reasoning is top notch :ok

[Cyrus69]

Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012 CzechPunter, what are your selections for today?:ok

[totse]

Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012

Event	Machado R. - Ferrer D.
Selection	over 26.5 (Asian-handicap)
Strength	10/10
Date	17/01/2012
Bookmaker/Price	Nordicbet @ 2.05
Reasoning	David Ferrer is going today after he won Auckland open two days ago, but he lost one set through his way to the title against Falla who is under number 71 in ATP rankings. I watched him against prince Rochus at the final he was broken one time and Rochus who is 32 years old and short missed another good chances to broke him again. On the other hand Machado played two matches this year he failed 7-5 6-3 against Monfils and 7-6 6-3 against Belluci. Machado is typicall claycourter but if play so well as he did against Monfils this match sure will go over 26 games.

[Alovenac]

Re: Tennis: Australian Open 2012 2/10 Chela - Russel over 38.5 games @ 1.96 12Bet I think a close game here between two routiners in this circuit. I don't know who will win this match easy? 3/10 Seppi - Gasquet over 36.5 games @ 1.87 Unibet Last game was two weeks ago on this surface. A close match between this players. I think tonight Gasquet will win this in 4 or 5 sets. 3/10 Ebden tb. Souza CS: 3-0 @ 2.20 Betsson Nice odd! Ebden played very well the last weeks. Souza is a unknown for me, a suprise that he will play this tournament. I think Ebden can win this match easy. 3/10 Sweeting tb. Bachinger @ 2.10 Bwin Great odds for the American. He likes this surface and have enough quality to win this match. Bachinger is not steady enough and make to much faults in any match. 4/10 Llodra tb. Gulbis @ 2.20 StanJames I dont know why Llodra is dog in this match. He likes this surface and i think he have more quality than Gulbis. He beats Gulbis more times on this surface. With his plays on the net he can make it very difficult for Gulbis. 5/10 Garcia-Lopez tb. Kukushkin @ 1.50 Nordicbet Garcia not good the alst weeks, but i think he can win this match. Kukushkin is not my favorite player. 6/10 Malisse tb. Roger Vasselin @ 1.56 Betsson Malisse play good on this surface and have enough quality to win this match. 3/10 Giraldo - Viola CS: 3-0 @ 1.75 Unibet Easy match for Giraldo as he played with enough concentration. I hope he will not choke one or two sets. 4/10 Raonic - Volandri under 27.5 games @ 1.97 Titanbet Volandri can not handle the service from Raonic. He played great the last year. 6-3 6-3 6-3 is enough for this bet and i think this will be a easy winner.