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Italy - Serie A - 14-16 January


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Saturday 14 January 2012 Home Draw Away BPP
maximize.gif Catania v AS Roma (19:45 GMT) 3.4 3.3 2.42 101.04 %
Sunday 15 January 2012 Home Draw Away BPP
maximize.gif Lazio v Atalanta (11:30 GMT) 1.84 3.5 5.6 100.78 %
maximize.gif Cesena v Novara (14:00 GMT) 2.1 3.35 4.33 100.55 %
maximize.gif Chievo v Palermo (14:00 GMT) 2.22 3.25 3.9 101.46 %
maximize.gif Fiorentina v Lecce (14:00 GMT) 1.45 4.6 9.5 101.23 %
maximize.gif Genoa v Udinese (14:00 GMT) 3.25 3.3 2.6 99.53 %
maximize.gif Juventus v Cagliari (14:00 GMT) 1.34 5.2 14 101.00 %
maximize.gif Parma v Siena (14:00 GMT) 2.25 3.25 3.9 100.85 %
maximize.gif AC Milan v Internazionale (19:45 GMT) 2.26 3.4 3.75 100.33 %
Monday 16 January 2012 Home Draw Away BPP
maximize.gif Napoli v Bologna (19:45 GMT) 1.38 5 12 100.80 %
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Re: Italy - Serie A - 14-16 January There seems to be a lot of short prices this weekend IMO. Not too much that appeals to me at the moment. I have taken one already though. Fiorentina vs. Lecce I can see goals in this match. Fiorentina got beaten yesterday night by Roma (3-0). The result is somewhat unfortunate as Fiorentina had two great opportunities to go 1-0 ahead. All 3 goals can be attributed to individual errors from young players. There will be a different line up in this match, but they are still a bit vulnerable. I don't rate Natali that highly, and to hear him calling Milan seems ridiculous. Gamberini and Nastasic are decent but still not consistently good defenders. They will probably take a bit of time to adjust to their back 3 setting. If Cassani and Vargas get caught high up the pitch then the CB's can be left vulnerable. Montolivo, Behrami and Salifu is a decent all-round midfield. Behrami is the legs while Montolivo breaks forward with the ball. I do think Fiorentina need a proper forward to take this team higher up the table. Jovetic is a wonderful player and does score his fair share. I'm sure he would prefer to play in and around a striker though as opposed to Ljajic. Neither are conventional strikers and the latter missed both the opportunities against Roma. They have great movement though and can assist very well. They should get the necessary support from Montolivo, Cassani and Vargas as well as others to create opportunities. Lecce have real trouble defending competently. They can be quite a decent side going forward but at the back they struggle. I'm not sure as to whether they will go with a back 3 or 4 in this one. Given the home side are dangerous out wide, a back 4 may be advisable. The only defender who kind of stands out is Mesbah (LB). As a team, they don't protect the defence very well. Strasser is their primary DM and he is missing again. Cuadrado and Oliviera often neglect their D duties so Obodo and Giacomazzi will have to do their fair share of work in CM. Obodo will take the more defensive role. On the ball they are decent and Cuadrado is a dangerous winger. Di Michele and Muriel are a tricky duo who have great movement and decent finishing. As a team I imagine they will try to counter quickly but they do like to get on the ball and try to pass it around. Fiorentina will try to impose themselves on the match though so Lecce will probably accept that quick counters are their best bet. The home side could potentially cover this line themselves on a good day. Given how poorly Lecce defend 2 goals is well within Fiorentina's grasp. I think Lecce can pose their own threat up front as well so I'm going for overs. Over 2.5 goals - 1.95 - 4 points - Bet365

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Re: Italy - Serie A - 14-16 January "Two big, like a house, draw games are Cesena v Novara and Genoa v Palermo. On this second a draw (in Genoa) I could put all that I have." Words of Lecce player... Probably there is little relation with truth, but again I was going to share with you. Maybe this is really Italian job :cigar

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Re: Italy - Serie A - 14-16 January I would agree with you Ultravires that goals are likely in the Lecce game, you would always have to expect them when Lecce play at the moment. You can also get Lecce over 0.5 goals for the same price which is also very much worth a look I feel. Lecce have scored in all five last away games and look even more of an attacking threat under Cosmi. Whilst Lecce have a pretty awful defence as it is, with a few defenders out as well (Oddo & Mesbah are both out I think), I do worry about Fiorentina's goal scoring ability with Jovetic and Ljalic upfront as neither are out and out strikers. Other bets i'm considering at the moment are; - backing Roma in some way. They have been quietly improving with a very good run of results recently and look too strong for this Catania team. - Overs in the Lazio vs Atalanta game. - Udinese to win or maybe DNB. Genoa have a few injury problems in defence which makes backing Udinese an interesting prospect. - Siena +0.5. Parma look awful at the moment, very disjointed and there is talk they may switch up the tactics, which could have an either positive or negative effect. Siena have no such issues with a solid and set first 11, and should be in buoyont mood after that win vs Lazio. - Cesena to win. Think that Cesena have more quality in their squad than this Novara team and over the course of the season stand a better chance at avoiding relegation that Novara do, and so there is a good chance this will manifest itself in this match. Will ponder these for the next couple of days, whilst awaiting more up to date squad selections and team news .

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Re: Italy - Serie A - 14-16 January

What's the story with Zlatan? Are people still butthurt about that 1000% safe bet he gave on that Serie B match which ended 2-2? Is that also why he left?:spank :eyes
i don't know where he is bu the important is that i put....let's say a lot of money on this "1000% sure match" and it ruined my BIG:spank profit
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Re: Italy - Serie A - 14-16 January Some early thoughts... Agree with ultravires about Fiore and the Over 2,5 Goals. I would go further than that - Home -1,5 AH @ 2,25 and Over 3,5 Goals @ 3,20. If the general attitude is that Lecce play good enough forward and that they can score, I see more than 3 Goals. Still, Over 3 Goals is good enough @ 2,60 with bet365. A FT at 2-1 would be a ''killer'', but this is how I see it at the moment. No need for high stakes... Same approach for me in the Juve game and in Naples - Over 3,5, and Home -1,5AH. Juventus is at 2,025 and I expect it to drop, Golas are at 3,10, in Naples odds are exactly the same. I am slightly worried whether Cagliari and Bologna will be able to score, but 2-0 in both games would break me even. Again, a FT at 2-1 is a murder, so small stakes. I will back Roma with a very small stake in Sicily, although the Draw is very tempting. In any case I am doing this as a fan, 2,25 is far from enough to me for serious bet. Simply Roma look better to me at the back, with a confident GK and despite than slightly erratic start vs Fiorentina midweek. Lazio should recover from that loss in Siena, but will they keep a clean sheet? So I think of following Dylan and go for the Over 2,5 @ 2,10. This game looks very weird to me, as with Atalanta anything could be expected - without the point deduction their results would have put them up close to the Top 5, just a point behind Roma and Napoli, with only 3 games lost so far. I do not rule the draw out here either, if yes - I hope for a high-scoring one. Goal/Goal for me in Milano and Genoa, while in Chievo and Cesena - I will put a small stake on the Draws, as advised above ( about Cesena ). These last two - I will wait a bit - need to see what players will be ready for Palermo, they look ''toothless'' to me and if Chievo score first - I can't see them losing this game... All small stakes, Italy has been bad to me this Season.:\ GL

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Re: Italy - Serie A - 14-16 January

i don't know where he is bu the important is that i put....let's say a lot of money on this "1000% sure match" and it ruined my BIG:spank profit
How much? Just curious. I wanted to PM you but not possible because you have less than 50 posts. Also, never bet based on just what some guy says on a forum, despite his reputation. Do your own research then.
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Re: Italy - Serie A - 14-16 January I do fancy Roma to win today, and the odds on that are decent enough but I will try my luck with this instead. Roma - over 1.5 team goals 2.63 at Stan James (1.5 units) I really can’t see this Catania team threating Roma too much here and so this should allow Roma to get their passing and possession (70% possession against both Cheivo and Bologna recently!) game going and with a few defensive issues that Catania have I don’t think the away side should have too many problems breaking through. Catania’s defence (and indeed the team as a whole) has shown signs that they are struggling in recent performances. The last match before the break saw them concede 3 first half goals to Parma, and they lost 2-0 in Bologna last weekend, offering very little and allowing Bologna to score twice even without their best creative threat Ramirez. On top of this regular left back Marchese is suspended for this match having picked up a few too many yellow cards. Part of Catania’s problem in putting together any consistency this season is Montella’s constant swapping between playing a back 4 or a back 5. I suspect that he would have gone for a back 5 in this match to counteract the runners that Roma get from midfield and full back, but with Marchese out and Capuano also injured, the options in defence are limited and that is likely to force Montella’s hand into going with four in defence which I don’t feel will be ideal for Catania in this match. As for Roma, they have been getting some good results and good performances recently , with four wins on the bounce if you include the impressive mid week win vs Fiorentina. It feels a long time since their early season struggles which saw player bust ups and Enrique allegedly under a lot of pressure. They are now creating a lot of chances and being much more clinical in front of goal. With Totti, Lamela, Bojan and now Borini all fit and with goals to their names this season, I’ll be confident of Roma scoring with whichever three the manager goes for in attack. They have scored 2 or more in all of their last 4 games, and even when things were tough early in the season they were still getting goals. Enrique isn’t really the type of manager to sit back on leads either so not too worried about Roma parking the bus if they do take the lead. The Roma win / handicap win were both considered here, but Catania do offer some attacking threat. If they have 4 not 5 at the back, this should see an extra striker deployed in a 4-3-3 which is obviously quite attacking and they could get some joy against this Roma defence which is the most suspect area of the team still. :hope

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Re: Italy - Serie A - 14-16 January Catania - Roma .. 2 (2.37) Catania are famed for their home form, but the victory over Palermo last month is the only win they’ve recorded at the Massimino since October, losing to Cagliari, Novara and Chievo in the process. Roma are definitely on fire with 4 wins in a row, including the Coppa Italia 3-0 crushing against Fiorentina, and the draw with league leaders Juventus prior to this streak.

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Re: Italy - Serie A - 14-16 January

"Two big' date= like a house, draw games are Cesena v Novara and Genoa v Palermo. On this second a draw (in Genoa) I could put all that I have." Words of Lecce player... Probably there is little relation with truth, but again I was going to share with you. Maybe this is really Italian job :cigar
As I can see Genoa is playin Udinese on Sunday. McNasara, could you provide site where you found info. THX in advance. :)
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Re: Italy - Serie A - 14-16 January Another for me: Genoa vs. Udinese I'm quite happy to take the away side with full draw cover in this one. Genoa are (probably) welcoming back a key attacking threat in Palacio but they they face problems at the back in this match. Kaladze and Dainelli are both missing along with Bovo. That means that Granqvist and Marchiori will be CB partners. The latter is a primavera player while the former is still settling into the club. Mesto and Antonelli are regular full-backs. It's not clear whether Veloso will make it into the XI either so they could line-up with Constant, Seymour and Merkel. Up front Palacio has been training and so should be forced into the team. He and Gila could well form a good partnership in the long run. I just hope that it doesn't form during tomorrow's match. Jankovic or Rossi will occupy the other side of the 3 up front. Udinese were pretty dire in the cup against Chievo. They defended like cowboys and failed to create too many chances. It was a mixed team but the defending in particular worried me. Domizzi returns to partner Danilo and Ferronetti. It should be stronger than in the week but no Benatia is certainly a blow. In midfield Fernades played decent actually. He can pass the ball and has some legs to cover ground. Isla and Pinzi will flank him in CM. Armero and Basta will cover the flanks which is huge boost. They will run all match and will be needed to tighten the D. They have yet to find the important player who can click with Di Natale. Quite often you see him doing things that he shouldn't in trying to score due to not having a complimentary partner. Floro Flores will probably get the nod, and can be a threat, but their attack is not as potent as it could be. In sum, I think Udinese will recover defensively in this one. There are slight issues over CB's and CM's but I think they should cope in this match. The return of key players in key positions will certainly help. I think they can cope with what Genoa offer offensively. In turn, the home side have their own issues defensively so with a little hustle Udinese can definitely create and score in this one. I'm taking full draw cover because the away side haven't been as clinical recently. Udinese DNB - 1.925 - 4 points - Bet365 I'm mulling over Atalanta +0.5 and Over 2 goals in Chievo-Palermo. Any thoughts would be appreciated.

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Re: Italy - Serie A - 14-16 January Catania - Roma: Roma @ 2.37 (Bet365) 10/10 The price for Roma's win is attractive. Roma has hit some good form recently going 5-1-2 recently in the league and convincingly defeating Fiorentina in the cup. Roma has the 2nd best away record (5-2-1). Catania's form has been weak in the last 8 matches (2-2-4) and they are only 14th in home record standing (4-2-2). In the 6 recent H2H matches Roma has the advantage with a 4-1-1 record. Roma's form and better quality should win this match.

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Re: Italy - Serie A - 14-16 January Seeing as Lazio are quite a positive attacking team and Atalanta are strong on the counter attack I see this game as being a real end to end one and expect a few goals. It’s hard to predict a winner as these are two very evenly matched teams, but as they are at home and have in Hernanes & Klose probably the best two forward players on the pitch I’m sure you could make a strong argument for Lazio snatching this one, and so for me personally I wouldn’t fancy backing Atalanta on the +0.5 / DNB etc. So I will go for goals and take; Lazio vs Atalanta – over 2.5 goals 2.2 at Stan James (1.5 units) As I say Lazio play decent attacking football and a front three of Hernanes, Klose and Rocchi will always cause problems both from open play and set pieces. The biggest problems for Lazio are in defence. For this match their defensive options do admittedly look stronger with Dias and Marchetti both back to full fitness, however due to injuries Reja has had to constantly swap his back 4 around recently and this has meant that they have struggled to build relationships in defence and also really prevents getting any consistency going. The defensive line up that Gazetta seem to be predicting of Marchetti, Zauri, Dias, Biava and Radu would have 3 changes from the last league game in Siena and 4 from the midweek cup tie, and should be cause for some concern. I would be surprised if he Biava does play though because he was terrible against Siena. Atalanta certainly have the players who could exploit any weakness in the Lazio backline with the in form Denis, Moralez or Marilungo in just behind Denis and Schelleto on the wing. As a rule Atalanta are generally quite a positive team and love a quick counter attack. This is a style that doesn’t change when playing away from home. The fact that 7 from 8 away games for Atalanta this season have gone over the 2.5 goals demonstrates this and make these odds look quite nice I feel. :hope I may be back with more picks for tomorrow, still going through team news etc. I did fancy the same bet as Ultravires in backing Udinese on the DNB, but the latest news is that Domizzi is also out for Udinese having picked up an injury. Both defences now look spectacularly average and I worry that Udinese’s could be just a likely to make mistake as Genoa’s. Normally in this situation I would consider goals but as Palacio / Gilardino is a new partnership and Udinese are too relient on one man I probably steer clear from of this match.

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Re: Italy - Serie A - 14-16 January

Event Parma - Siena
Selection Parma
Strength 10/10
Date 15/01/2012
Bookmaker/Price Coral @ 2.25
Reasoning Parma changed his coach eralier this week. Roberto Donadoni replaced Franco Colomba after the 5-0 defeat against Inter Milan and he already started working. We will see a new Parma, playing in 3-4-3 and we all know how the players use to be motivated after a coach changing. They want to show value and i believe thye have much more to show than they showed so far. This Siena seems to be over rated at the moment just bcause they hammered Lazio by 4-0 in the last game. It is true they made a great game but before this win, the previous win was in October! They are not better than Parma and Parma will be very agressive football today.
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Re: Italy - Serie A - 14-16 January I know this might sound a bit out of space here :lol But I had a dream last night where Fiorentina won 3:0. Should I follow on my dream and take Fiorentina -1,5 @ 2,30 or take the goal market Over 2.5 @ 1,85 ? :unsure Or maybe I should take it lighter with soccer everyday cuz might be a problem if I start dreaming with it xDD

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Re: Italy - Serie A - 14-16 January

Event Lazio - Atalanta
Selection draw
Strength 10/10
Date 15/01/2012
Bookmaker/Price Nordicbet @ 3.45
Reasoning Lazio has tough on Wednesday against Hellas Verona who are plying in Serie B. However SS Lazio took good 2-0 advantage but allwoed 2 goals and finally won 3-2. After this game I think host team today will be exhausted. On the other hand Atalanta has almost 50% matches draw this season holding 6-8-3 record so far. Atlalanta is going today after five draw in last seven games including three in a row on the road. However it is interesting that Lazio is stronger visitor than homer holding record 3-4-2 at home one of poor home records in Seria A. They are going today after two home draw in a row against Udinese 2-2 and Chievo 0-0. It is interesting that already 7 games in a row between has no draw so I'm looking to the first draw since Feb. 2007.
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Re: Italy - Serie A - 14-16 January

Event Genoa - Udinese
Selection draw
Strength 10/10
Date 15/01/2012
Bookmaker/Price 5Dimes @ 3.26
Reasoning Another derby match today between two of strong teams. Genoa hold 4-2-2 home record so far they failed against Inter 0-1, and Milan 0-2 but defeat Roma 2-1. It is interesting that Genoa has no draw already ten games in a row but they took a point of Juventus in Torin so that team have good class. On the other hand Udinese is sitting only two points behind leaders Juventus and Milan they still has good chances to take the title. Udinese hold 2-4-2 record far from home, defeat over stron Inter 0-1, draw with Lazio 2-2 and Atalanta 0-0 in past five road games. Udinese has Di Natale in front of their offense and he may decide each game they are playing. For me those are two equal teams and a point here will be accepted good here in both sides.
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Re: Italy - Serie A - 14-16 January

Event Parma - Siena
Selection draw
Strength 10/10
Date 15/01/2012
Bookmaker/Price Ladbrokes @ 3.20
Reasoning Parma changed their coach this week so the players will have extra motivation today. Parma hold 4-3-2 home record so far in the season, they defeat Udinese 2-0, but after that recorded three draw in a row against Catania, Lecce and Palermo three average teams. Parma is going today after four draw in last five games overall. On the other hand Siena is hot right now they stopped strong SS Lazio 4-0 last week, before that clinch a point against another good team Fiorentina. Siena hold 0-4-4 away record so 50% chance for a draw today, they are in very good fit this year and for sure seeks to their first road win, but Parma is a class at home with new coach. Six out of last nine games between finished draw in past five years.
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Re: Italy - Serie A - 14-16 January

Event Genoa - Udinese
Selection draw
Strength 10/10
Date 15/01/2012
Bookmaker/Price 5Dimes @ 3.26
Reasoning Another derby match today between two of strong teams. Genoa hold 4-2-2 home record so far they failed against Inter 0-1, and Milan 0-2 but defeat Roma 2-1. It is interesting that Genoa has no draw already ten games in a row but they took a point of Juventus in Torin so that team have good class. On the other hand Udinese is sitting only two points behind leaders Juventus and Milan they still has good chances to take the title. Udinese hold 2-4-2 record far from home, defeat over stron Inter 0-1, draw with Lazio 2-2 and Atalanta 0-0 in past five road games. Udinese has Di Natale in front of their offense and he may decide each game they are playing. For me those are two equal teams and a point here will be accepted good here in both sides.
This is not a derby match. I "follow your tip", but I play DRAW at half time: @2.18 bf, stake 3/10 I believe this to be a close game, with both teams evenly matched. Genoa losing badly last 2 games I would not expect them to lose a 3rd in front of their supporters. Udinese plays great football with DiNatale upfront, but on the road the can concede. Statistically HT Draw is +50% with these 2 teams, I hope the trend will continue.
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Re: Italy - Serie A - 14-16 January

I know this might sound a bit out of space here :lol But I had a dream last night where Fiorentina won 3:0. Should I follow on my dream and take Fiorentina -1,5 @ 2,30 or take the goal market Over 2.5 @ 1,85 ? :unsure Or maybe I should take it lighter with soccer everyday cuz might be a problem if I start dreaming with it xDD
Go with correct result and you'll know whether it is a sign or mean less football for you... :lol gl
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Re: Italy - Serie A - 14-16 January Chievo vs Palermo Home team play a very good under coach Di Carlo, especially in Verona where they've only one loss in eight games. On the other hand, Palermo still don't have win out of Sicily. Chievo is in better shape and on wings of the going into the next stage of Cup after win in Udine. Their trademark is a strong defense, attack is a little weaker, but everyone expects Pellissier to scored its 100 goal today. Mutti (new coach) not changed much situation in Palermo and he have several missings: Hernandez, Zahavi, Pisano, Acquah (three first team players) with Miccoli (topscorer) is in doubt. I give 50% chance to Chievo so this is worth to try... 1 @2.15 William Hill 2/10

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