England > Weekend > Premier League > 14-16 January

[staffy]

Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 14-16 January

Tip Detail

Sport	Football (England - Prem)
Event	Wigan v Man City
Selection	Man City Clean Sheet == Yes
Strength	1/10
Date	16/01/2012
Bookmaker/Price	Ladbrokes @ 2.10
Reasoning	Bottom v Top. Wigan are averaging a goal a game at home against a side who have a very good goalkeeper and a half decent defence. City will be missing a few key players today but I dont see them being hurt to much at the back against a side who struggle to score. Wigan gave failed to score against City in their last 4 games and I can see this being extended to 5 tonight.
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[chris666]

Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 14-16 January Could some explain the difference to the two goal markets of over/under 2.5 goals AH and over/under 2.5 goals outright. Any benefit to goal line AH of 2.5 goals instead of the other?

[ThusPrider]

Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 14-16 January

Could some explain the difference to the two goal markets of over/under 2.5 goals AH and over/under 2.5 goals outright. Any benefit to goal line AH of 2.5 goals instead of the other?

There is absolutely no difference whatsoever. You should be suprised to see the same bookie offer slightly different odds for AH 2.5 than the normal over 2.5, though the bookie will never arb itself. Asians usually have better value as most bookies take a smaller margin.

[ThusPrider]

Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 14-16 January

Wigan are rubbish! They had a few good results in recent times but i would be surprised if City didnt win this by at least 2 goals. They are missing a few but even their bench is far superior to any of Wigan's starting 11' date=' will be a dull atmosphere, City -1 is the way to go for this one, as much as i hate to say it![/quote'] I know, the DW is never full and its a monday night, I doubt many Wiganers will turn up to this fixture! Wigan are gonna need abit more luck to stay up, but Im a great fan of Martinez and I really hope they do well.

[nad33m]

Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 14-16 January

Wigan v Man City Difficult to call really. Man City have won 6/6 versus bottom 6 sides, but have only 2 points from their last 4 away fixtures. Man City have the best attack and defence in the league and Wigan have the worst attack and the 18th best defence, though Man City have some key players missing. Even the under/over market seems precarious, Man City have had 7/10 over 2.5 goals away this season, while Wigan have had 5/10 at home. Only on 2 occasions have Man City failed to score, yet Wigan have failed on 8. Since 15/20 times Man City have scored 2 or more, I think I'd take: Man City AH -1.5 2.075 @bet365 All info gathered from www.statsonthegame.com

I take a similar view, Man City vs the lower teams there is no contest usually, hence my bet: Man City Win and Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.83 , William Hill.

[totse]

Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 14-16 January

Event	Wigan - Manchester City
Selection	under 2.5
Strength	10/10
Date	16/01/2012
Bookmaker/Price	188bet @ 2.31
Reasoning	Wigan sits on last place but they stopped Chelsea 1-1 draw, and Liverpool 0-0 draw in two of last three home games. Wigan will try to clinch another draw today, because they know Man City is a great team. However City has big problems in last two road games they drew 0-0 against West Brom and failed 1-0 when visited Sunderland with a goal in injury time of second half. Another reason backing under here is that the last two games between at DW Stadium finished under 1-1 and 0-2 for visitor so under here for me.

[wisey10]

Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 14-16 January Wigan v Man City -1 (AH) @ 1.65 Bet365 4 Points If Man City had a full side out I would be lumping on them here, but with Toure and Kompany missing, I'm a lot more cautious. But I do still think they will win this game and as such I shall be taking them on the alternative -1 handicap as I'm wary of them just winning by one. Much has been said about City missing key players but the impact of Wigan missing Diame shouldn't be underestimated either. City are looking a bit tired and really lacked creativity in their last match against Liverpool in the cup. But Liverpool didn't give them a second and after taking the lead, they just sat back and parked the bus on City. I don't think Martinez will approach tonights game like that though. I saw them come down to Stoke the other week and I was surprised how much time they gave our players on the ball. If they sit back off City players in the same way here, I think they will get punished. Players like Milner, Johnson and Aguero will thrive with that sort of space and if Silva is fit, then I can definitely see him getting some joy. Wigan have had a couple of good results at home with a great result against Chelsea but I am confident Mancini will get a professional job done tonight. They are missing players but are still much stronger than Wigan who's style I think could play into City's hands. I'm wary that they might just win this by one goal so have taken a smaller priced handicap. But Sunderland came here the other week and won 4-1 and I think there is a decent chance that Man City could win just as comfortably.

[zdeneck433]

Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 14-16 January there is someone who know the reserve championship here:)?

[cpo]

Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 14-16 January

I have to admit I can't really see past a comfortable Man City win. Yes their main men this season in Toure and Kompany are missing but De Jong comes in who was their main man last season and hasn't had a chance this year. He is perfectly capable of filling Toure's boots and is one of the best players at disrupting the play. Their defence is missing Kompany which is a big loss but Wigan don't exactly score many goals and they have failed to score against City in their last 4 games and have only scored once against them in their last 6 games. Wigan come into this on the back of arguably their worst performance of the season getting beat 4-1 by Sunderland at home and Man City come into this after beating Liverpool 3-0 without playing that well. They know they have to win because Man Utd won on Saturday and Silva looks like he may return tonight. One of the players of the season so far and is vital to Man City. Think a front 3 of Nasri, Aguero and Silva will be too much for Wigan's brittle defence and I expect a comfortable away win for Man City. Man City (-1) - 5pts (max bet) @ 10/11

Sorry that was with Ladbrokes

[a713n]

Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 14-16 January last minute bet for tonights game Aguero to score first and Man City to win 4.50 @ Bet365 :hope

[ThusPrider]

Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 14-16 January Attacking Man City team tonight, Mancini has shoved on everything hes got except Mario: Hart, Zabaleta, Savic, Lescott, Clichy, Milner, Barry, Nasri, Silva, Aguero, Dzeko

[i_like_punts]

Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 14-16 January Wigan - Man City I feel without Kompany and Yaya City can be got at. Savic reminds me of a young Vidic who was prone to errors when he first moved over to the UK and I can see the little tricky players like Moses and Crusat causing him problems. On the other hand City have gone with a very offensive formation and with Silva back I fancy them to get a couple themselves. BTTS - 1.98 betfair Over 3.5 - 2.80 betfair

[Mahno]

Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 14-16 January Don't care what line ups are-i'm going with stats. City never scored more then 1 goal in last 6 away matches. Man City goals under 1.5 @2.65

[Dylan]

Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 14-16 January Haven't prepared much of a write up but will go against that and take City over 2.5 team goals 2.5 at bet365 (1 unit) This certainly is a slighty more attacking team that I would have expected Mancini to put particularly as they are playing away from home. I think Mancini knows that he needs to get his team out of this minor rut as soon as possible, they have lacked creativity and goals in recent games, especially on the road and I don't think there is too many places / defences better than Wigans to help restore a strikers confidence. In my opinion they have a terrible defence, and this wont be helped in this game with them missing Diame who is at the African Cup of Nations. He helps to shield the defence and although the two younger players McCarthur and McCarthy are hard workers they don't have the defensive ability to break up play that often. This means that Silva, Aguero, Nasri should all see alot of the ball we all know what they can do with it. :hope

[H1]

Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 14-16 January Wigan - Man City Mancini named a strong squad, but he will have to do without brothers Toure and Kompany. Man City failed to find a net in their last two games, and also did not impress at home against Liverpool. They face a Wigan side who should be content with a draw and will probably defend with many players, and will try their luck on the counter attack. Man City will have the most of possession, and will try to break Wigan. If Martinez's players put out a decent performance, I think they will make live tough for City. They should prevail in the end, however. My selections: under 3 goals @1.78 5/10 pts Man City to win to nil @2.25 2/10 pts all bet365 cheers!

[smokeit34]

Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 14-16 January Man City to end slump tonight against worst team imo in table. Top v Bottom usually springs surprises with draws and wins from the bottom team but Mancini will see this as a must win away game if they are to keep their head in front on united. With the attacking lineup announced I am backing city -1 goal Large stakes @ 23/20 with boylesports (now only 21/20) -2 at 12/5 small stakes 3-0 @ 8/1 small stakes will wait to half time and if still nil nil will be backing city to win at better value price in play or if wigan score first within first 30mins ill be jumping all over man city to win. Wigan failed to score in 6 home games, I know they like their draws but i feel the City attack force is way too strong here, especially with silva back whether fully fit or not. He creates the attacking plays with slick passes and great vision. GL :cigar

[a713n]

Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 14-16 January

last minute bet for tonights game Aguero to score first and Man City to win 4.50 @ Bet365 :hope

damn :cry

[chris666]

Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 14-16 January

There is absolutely no difference whatsoever. You should be suprised to see the same bookie offer slightly different odds for AH 2.5 than the normal over 2.5, though the bookie will never arb itself. Asians usually have better value as most bookies take a smaller margin.

Thanks for that, two different prices for game that i was looking at tonight. 2.5 AH was 1.82 and over 2.5 was 8/11 (1.727), so was just curious as to the price difference. Much appreciated. Bookies odds in question was Lads

[Mahno]

Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 14-16 January

Don't care what line ups are-i'm going with stats. City never scored more then 1 goal in last 6 away matches. Man City goals under 1.5 @2.65

0-1 FT :beer Stats don't lie

[H1]

Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 14-16 January

Wigan - Man City Mancini named a strong squad, but he will have to do without brothers Toure and Kompany. Man City failed to find a net in their last two games, and also did not impress at home against Liverpool. They face a Wigan side who should be content with a draw and will probably defend with many players, and will try their luck on the counter attack. Man City will have the most of possession, and will try to break Wigan. If Martinez's players put out a decent performance, I think they will make live tough for City. They should prevail in the end, however. My selections: under 3 goals @1.78 5/10 pts :) Man City to win to nil @2.25 2/10 pts :) all bet365 cheers!

both won :beer

[CiderHead]

Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 14-16 January

Wigan v Man City I don't see any value in backing Man City at those odds considering there poor recent performances. Without Kompany and Toure they look a much weaker side. The two markets that got my attention were the corner and booking markets. On average in Wigans home games there have been 44 booking points and in Man Citys away games 43.5. The referee for the game is Martin Atkinson who averages 3.38 yellow cards a match. So I took over 3.5 cards at 1.72 (5/10) Bet365 So far this season Wigan's home games have featured 12 corners per game. In Man City's away games there have been an average of 11.3 corners. Both sides play an open style of football which I feel will produce plenty of corners. I've taken over 10 corners at 1.72 (5/10) on Bet365

Awful game of football. The lack of any real tempo cost me the corners bet but atleast got some back on the card market. Slight loss :wall

[ThusPrider]

Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 14-16 January

Wigan - Man City Under 2.5 2.300 10/10 Wigan +1.25 1.855 Pinnacle 10/10

Ja Ja, nice profit, mostly pleased about how I thought the game was going to go, scrappy, low tempo at times with Man City struggling to find their early season form! Money has been leaking from my bankroll in recent weeks due to misplaced bets and other bollocks, lets hope for a predictable weekend ahead of us.

[Dylan]

Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 14-16 January

Haven't prepared much of a write up but will go against that and take City over 2.5 team goals 2.5 at bet365 (1 unit)

Terrible pick :wall Well done to tonights winners, seems most of you guys read the game better than I did.

[ThusPrider]

Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 14-16 January

both won :beer

Congratz! But I just had to tell you that William hill had one of them "Match Winner" offers for Man City to win to Nil at enhanced odds of 2.750 (7/4). Though everyone is limited you can still get a decent amount on it, and if you're really unhappy about the stake sizes put the rest of your money on the next best odds! Not trying to ruin your day but I was nearly going to take it. Ok now ive got to rant because Ive started. These match winner offers have been around all season, like Utd to score 5 against Blackburn, 25 or more goals in todays league games... Ive taken nearly every one of them this season because most of them are quite fun bets at very reasonable prices, and worth trying to stick whatever you're allowed on them as a nice side bet. Yesterday Barcelona vs Betis... Match winner Betis to score 2 or more goals 9/1, im thinking nah thats one ill avoid... and hey... at the highest odds Betis do score and only loses 4 - 2.... On the other hand my Barcelona -3.0 Handicap was sunk. Who would have known Barcelona at home... 2 - 0 up at 12 minutes to conceade 2 and sweat for the win? Barcelona should have shut up shop and popped in a couple more. Im not making this stuff up... I backed my favourite player Fabregas to score at EVS and what happens he smacks against the post, hits Xavi somewhere and bounces in (Torres - Lampard) and only chalks up an assist. Funny, hes scored so many league goals this season and Ive yet to back him except this time. I do have to admit I was in the mood to chase back losses, after I failed to place bets on Christian Kist 10/11 to beat O'shea in the darts final, thinking the Match started at 7:15, but it started @ 6:45 (curse you oddschecker), and hey Kist won. That reminds me of another William hill match winner offer I took... Villa to beat Bristol Rovers by 3 or more goals at 5/1, Villa 3 - 0 up at 90 minutes, all good before ******* Richard Dunne makes that stupid ******* back pass to screw me over, a match that ended 3 - 1. I was going to take Villa -1.5 before I saw this... And Guzan saved a 90+2min goal just to rub it in that resulted in the -1.5 winning. Oh year bollocks, on the same weekend I had a bet on injury time goal Between Man City - Utd 7/1 in either half (mind you I backed City on that game only to see Utd score with their first attack and Kompany sent off harshly in minutes of the game), definate value on 7/1 as over 2.5 was something like 1.810 at best pre-game, with injury time of both halves around 5 minutes it represented about 1/18th of the game. The minimum goals that needs to go in for over 2.5 to succeed is 3, if you average three goals between this 95 minutes there was value with odds of around 6/1 being reasonable... 7/1 already had value plus there can easily be more than 3 goals, which makes the bet in injury time even more likely, as you get no additional bonuses betting on over 2.5 and there being 5 goals. To top it off Injury time goals have been a trait of these Manchester clubs. So what happens? Welbeck misses a sitter in the first half, if he put a electron-volt more energy on that ball it would have gone in from a Valencia cross inside the 6 yard box...2nd half Kolarov free kick 10 City players in the penalty in front of Lindergaard (including Pantilimon), Lindergaard parrys it into the mess, Lescott slips and it kindly drops to a Utd player to clear. Oh my, I have ranted quite abit. Lets stop here before I remember anything else. Oh **** bollocks on that same weekend I backed Blackburn+ 0.5 against Newcastle at good odds of something like 2.460. Newcastle were better, but cant you just give me abit more bloody luck to end 1 - 1 and not let Newcastle score that goal in 90+5mins?

[ThusPrider]

Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 14-16 January

Terrible pick :wall Well done to tonights winners, seems most of you guys read the game better than I did.

Dont be too harsh on yourself. I see alot of good tipping from you (usually against my bets to emphasize this to me!) Keep up the good work, dont let football deviation get to you... though this is abit rich coming from me.

[blackcrow]

Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 14-16 January Wigan - Man City under 2.5 @ 2.30 :D Season record: 93-112 (+11.10)