BBOTD Tuesday 3rd January ~ AYR OFF

[cpo]

3.30 Southwell Heidi's Delight 1pt Win @ 6/1 Ladbrokes I have to wait till the very last race for my bet today but this looks a fairly competitive handicap, with plenty in here with chances. Firstly a few of these raced against each other last time out with Heidi’s Delight well on top at the finish. That day she had 4 of today’s rivals in behind but is up 9lbs for that win so it will be interesting to see how she fares. Littlecote Lady finished behind 4 of today’s rivals last time out and I can’t see her reversing the form with all of them even though she has the first time visor on. Well Wishes was pretty useless on turf but put in a slightly better performance at Wolverhampton on her reappearance. She may improve for the switch to this surface but I don’t she will improve enough to trouble a few of these. Son of May I think wants further than this as he was staying on all too late last time out over CD. Burnwynd Spirit ran a much better race last time out on his first try on the surface and he rates a lively danger at a big price. That run came over 5f but the front 2 (one including Russian Bullet who races in this) never pulled away from him and if anything he was actually closing on them at the finish. The step up to 6f may help him and he definitively isn’t out of this. Point at Issue finished a good 2nd over CD last time out but his win a couple of outings ago came over 7f. He is consistent but I just feel there are a couple in here that could beat him today. The 2 I do like are Heidi’s Delight and MJ Woodward. Firstly Heidi’s Delight won last time out beating 4 of her opponents today. That was her first run on the surface and she also had the blinkers on for the first time. There has to be a worry that they won’t have the desired effect for a second time but she was slowly away that day and rousted along on the outside. Willie Carson who rides her again today wasted no time in bringing her through the pack on the outside and kicking for home into the straight. I feel a little more patience on the horse here and she may be able to see off her extra 9lbs. She was comfortably on top that day and I don’t think a 9lb increase will be enough to stop her. Connections know she will handle the surface and I fully expect her to be in the shake up. The other I like is MJ Woodward who is having his 3rd run at the track. He won over 5f and then finished a never nearer 5th last time out. I think Luke Morris on board today will make a big difference and he can go very close.

[wizzkid walter]

Re: BBOTD Tuesday 3rd January 1:05 Ayr - Edge Of Town - Back This looks a glorious opportunity here. Was sent off 3rd favourite in a 4 runner lot but belied the odds by absolutely hammering his rivals. He beat the odds on favourite by 32 lengths and that was despite being heavily eased down during the run-in. He's been found a softer race here and it'd be a real shock if he got beaten here 1pt win @ SP