European Tour 2012 - Abu Dhabi Championship

[RussP]

Re: Golf: European Tour 2012 - Volvo Golf Champions Onto the Champions event this week and a small but select field where there is no cut. As usual, 3 for me. M.Jimenez to win Volvo Golf Champions, 1.5pts EW @ 33/1 Betfred (1/4 odds 1-4) M.Jimenez, Top Continental European, 2pts EW @ 10/1 Betfred (1/4 odds 1-3) This looks like a tough course to crack so I'm going with Jimi here. He's a cracking golfer who looks overpriced in this company and should go well at a track like this. Has some of the best scrambling and sand save statistics on offer here, which is a massive plus. Has no problems in the wind, which we're likely to see, and has plenty of form on links courses too. One course this has been likened too, for its tight fairways and other characteristics, is Valderrama. Miguel finished 2nd there in 2010 behind Garcia so that's another tick in the box. Finally, his ability to come out the blocks quick is important in an event that is the first in 2012 for many. Last term, he started out with finishes of 11th & 2nd so rustiness shouldn't be an issue. Great EW shout and should be bang there too in the Top Euro market. R.Jacquelin to win Volvo Golf Champions, 1pt EW @ 66/1 Ladbrokes (1/4 odds 1-4) R.Jacquelin, Top Continental European, 1.5pts EW @ 18/1 Bet365 (1/4 odds 1-3) 2nd bet for me is the Frenchman, Jacquelin, another player at a very big price in such a small field. Again, his game looks well suited to this course with excellent scrambling statistics in his favour. His form in 2011 wasn't bad at all, with a win and 3 more top 10 finishes, and most of his form came early enough in the year to suggest he should be ready to fire. Played well on links courses including a top 10 at the Open and, interestingly, most of his best performances came in events where par was considered a good score. Is generally seen as a player that is solid rather than spectacular and, for once, that's considered a plus. Should go well this week and 18's looks big in a Euro market with just 13 runners. P.Martin to win Volvo Golf Champions, 0.5pts EW @ 175/1 Skybet (1/4 odds 1-4) P.Martin, Top 10 finish, 2pts @ 9/1 Betfred Completely speculative punt here based on 1 statistic; his form in the first event of each of the last 2 seasons. Form figures of 1-1 cannot be bettered and, whilst this is a much stronger field, you cannot ignore the fact that he'll be ready to roll first time up. The other thing to note is that he's the only non SA golfer to win a European Tour event here in the last 10 starts. I'm not totally convinced this course will be set up for him but it's feasible that a return to SA could produce a return to form. Whilst the outright bet is more of a punt, I do think that 9/1 represents great value for him to come inside the top 30% of this field. Good luck everyone:ok

[RussP]

Re: Golf: European Tour 2012 - Volvo Golf Champions Not really into laying but Branden Grace at 5/4 to win this is a stupid price. Yes, he's 4 shots clear but there's no way I can see him doubling up this week. The weather is getting up this weekend and only 2 players out on the course currently are under par. I'm pretty certain a 'Colsaerts' is coming on today and, not only do I think he won't win, I wouldn't be surprised to see a different leader come the end of the round. Admittedly, he's played well so far but expect to see a different event now the wind is out & about. A 'no bet' for me but definite value in the chasers, where I see Noren & Oosty as big dangers.

[Aidymac]

Re: Golf: European Tour 2012 - Volvo Golf Champions

Not really into laying but Branden Grace at 5/4 to win this is a stupid price. Yes' date=' he's 4 shots clear but there's no way I can see him doubling up this week. The weather is getting up this weekend and only 2 players out on the course currently are under par. I'm pretty certain a 'Colsaerts' is coming on today and, not only do I think he won't win, I wouldn't be surprised to see a different leader come the end of the round. Admittedly, he's played well so far but expect to see a different event now the wind is out & about. A 'no bet' for me but definite value in the chasers, where I see Noren & Oosty as big dangers.[/quote'] Agree Russy, is now a fantastic lay, even if he does go on and win its only 5/4, well worth a big lay imo, i think Aiken could be the end of round leader actually, Oosty needs a big round today for me.

[RussP]

Re: Golf: European Tour 2012 - Volvo Golf Champions A big round from Oosty? Mark my words, level par will be a good round today:ok Cheering him home for you mate.

[Aidymac]

Re: Golf: European Tour 2012 - Volvo Golf Champions

A big round from Oosty? Mark my words, level par will be a good round today:ok Cheering him home for you mate.

I want 3 or 4 under from him today.. he is well able to, very bad conditions though, Grace wont like it, Oosty won the Open so he can play in wind.

[Aidymac]

Re: Golf: European Tour 2012 - Volvo Golf Champions I didnt realise how bad the weather was there until is started watching it :lol Level par is a great score today, Slattery just treble bogeyed the 1st, Aiken double bogeyed the first. :eek

[RussP]

Re: Golf: European Tour 2012 - Volvo Golf Champions

R.Jacquelin' date= Top Continental European, 1.5pts EW @ 18/1 Bet365 (1/4 odds 1-3) 2nd bet for me is the Frenchman, Jacquelin, another player at a very big price in such a small field. Again, his game looks well suited to this course with excellent scrambling statistics in his favour. His form in 2011 wasn't bad at all, with a win and 3 more top 10 finishes, and most of his form came early enough in the year to suggest he should be ready to fire. Played well on links courses including a top 10 at the Open and, interestingly, most of his best performances came in events where par was considered a good score. Is generally seen as a player that is solid rather than spectacular and, for once, that's considered a plus. Should go well this week and 18's looks big in a Euro market with just 13 runners.

Not a great event for me but, for the 3rd week in succession, I can at least collect something, courtesy of Raphael Jacquelin's 3rd place finish in the Top Continental European market. A return of 8.25pts here, meaning a 6.75pt loss on the event. 3rd tournaments in and I'm sat at +24.50pts.

[Aidymac]

Re: Golf: European Tour 2012 - Volvo Golf Champions Good man Russ, damage limitation achieved again. :clap

[Aidymac]

Re: Golf: European Tour 2012 - Volvo Golf Champions Bets 6 Wins 0 Places 1 (200/1) Unplaced 5 Profit: 35 Points *Charl Schwartzel - 2 Points e/w @ 28/1 Paddy Power - 1/4, 6 Places* Has a brilliant 7 European Tour wins to his name and played very solid golf last weekend when 5th in the Volvo Golf Champions picking up €93,000 in the process. He finished 5th in the Dubai World Championship in December, picking up nearly a quarter of a million. Won the Masters Tournament and the Joburg Open in 2011, he finished 9th in the US Open and he is a leading contender this weekend coming, brilliant player and looks a nice price with 6 places on offer. *Thorbjorn Olesen - 2 Points e/w @ 250/1 Stanjames - 1/4, 6 Places* A 21 year old with a bright future this lad and may be just a tad overpriced here and if he cant challenge for the win, im hoping he can fill that 6th spot. He has shown glimpses of brilliance, in 2011 he finished 2nd in the Alfred Dunhill, he then finished 9th in the South African Open, he was 2nd in the Italian Open, 2nd in the French Open and finished a very creditable 19th in his last tournament of 2011 in Dubai, i think 250/1 is a ludicrous price for a player that can only improve again and has already been placed on tour several times. Good Luck Guys :hope

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Golf: European Tour 2012 - Abu Dhabi Championship Good luck this week Aidy. I must admit I too am impressed by Olesen and think he has the potential to make someone a big return this year. Good luck this week too Russ. Looking forward to your selections. In the meantime I'm going to take my first shot at the Euro Tour this year. 4pts Martin Kaymer @ 7.50 Paddy This selection is really driven by one key stat line -- In his past 4 participations in this event, Kaymer's results read: W/W/2nd/W. His combined score over that period... -80! I'm quite keen on players who show good course form, and it frankly doesn't get better than this. With Abu Dhabi so early in the year it also suggests Kaymer doesn't suffer from any early season struggles. 1pt Keith Horne 1st Round Leader @ 251 Local Aus Bookie - Best UK available price 226 with Coral Keith Horne has only played this event twice. In his first participation, in 2006, he shot an opening round 66, good for a 2 shot, 18 hole lead. In his 2nd participation, in 2010, he shot a 65, good for a 3-way tie for the 18 hole lead. Based on this and these massive odds, I feel obliged to take this.

[bigson22]

Re: Golf: European Tour 2012 - Abu Dhabi Championship For anyone looking a flutter on the Abu Dhabi golf this week, Betfred are doing a happy hour 2pm-3pm today with enhanced prices on the win only. Some cracking prices to be had, got Joost luiten @ 115-1 when he is 70-1 with PP and Stan James while you can have McDowell @ 55-1 when 40/45-1 elsewhere while Westwood is 16-1 while alot have him 12-1. Plenty more available! GL All!!

[RussP]

Re: Golf: European Tour 2012 - Abu Dhabi Championship Now we have our own golf forum, we will create a thread per event rather than just having 1 thread for the whole year. So, from next week, please post your selections in the individual event thread. I'm hoping we'll see plenty of inputs into the threads going forwards. Hope that's ok with everyone Regarding this event, it's clear that Kaymer is a standing dish here and good luck Crouchie. To me though, I've got to look elsewhere as 13/2 in this field doesn't represent value. Horne is clearly a great value pick & the form of the South Africans add weight to this bet, let's hope he goes well. Aidy, I too like Charl this week but he didn't quite make my shortlist although no surprise if he's right up there on Sunday, especially if he gets that putter working. Olesen, wow! A golfer I do rate but think this company may just be a little too hot for him. However, I'm sure he'll pop up at a price during the season. Good luck guys, now onto my selections where I'm splitting my customary 15pts across 5 selections... J.Day to win Abu Dhabi Championship, 2pts EW @ 33/1 Stan James (1/4 odds 1-6) 6 of Top 10 in the world appear this week and it's one of those I'll take as my main outright bet. Jason Day is an Aussie who's been performing extremely well on the PGA Tour, with 10 Top 10's finishes from just 21 starts in 2011. His ability to perform well in big events, where all the top names are involved, is getting better with 2nd place finishes at both the Masters and the US Open. That's some of the best form on show here. The ability to shoot low is a necessity here and that's another box we can tick with him ranking right up there in 'under par' stats. He hits the ball an awful long way and combining that with what's normally a hot flat stick, I think he's the definite value out of the market leaders. Whilst Donald, Kaymer et al have solid claims, I cannot be having any of the front 5 in the market at odds of 14/1 or less. A streaky player with a great shout. A.Noren to win Abu Dhabi Championship, 1pt EW @ 80/1 Stan James (1/4 odds 1-6) A.Noren, 1st Round Leader, 1pt EW @ 70/1 Paddy Power (1/4 odds 1-5) A.Noren, Top Continental Euro, 1pt EW @ 33/1 Stan James (1/4 odds 1-4) As many will know, I've long been a big fan of the Swede and I'm taking him to perform in this big event. Many say that course form here is a must and, on the face of it, he doesn't seem to have that but it's worth noting he was lying in 4th place last year going into the final day before a 76 resulted in a 31st place finish. He has plenty going for him this week, not least his length of the tee and his form around the short stuff. He also comes into this event off the back of a decent performance last week at the Champions event where, after 54 holes statistically, he was the best all round player looking at driving accuracy, GIR & putting. What I saw of him, he looked pretty decent too and he's a player that always gives himself plenty of birdie chances and is capable of shooting some stupidly low scores. Was T3 here after Round 1 last year and, in 9 of his last 12 events in 2011, he opened up with a round in the 60's making his odds of 70's to be leading come tomorrow night quite appealing. From a European perspective, the market is absolutely dominated by Martin Kaymer at just 2/1 but, otherwise, it's an open market and 33's is enough to tempt me. R.Karlsson to win Abu Dhabi Championship, 1pt EW @ 55/1 Stan James (1/4 odds 1-6) Smaller stakes on the big Swede who is a frustrating but very capable player. Ranked 27th in the world and, to me, is one of the better putters around. The thing that draws me though is his general form on the Gulf Swing with a win and 2 top 10's in the last 2 years in the Qatar & Dubai Desert, whilst his form here has been slightly less inspiring with 2 Top 15's in his last 3 tries. Generally starts the season well and has the game to put in a big show here, whilst his game last week at the Champions event was very solid tee to green but his putter just wasn't firing. That's not normal Robert Karlsson so, on the basis the short stick returns to normal, I'll have some of the 55's on offer from him to finish top 6. J.Edfors, 1st Round Leader, 0.5pts EW @ 125/1 Ladbrokes (1/4 odds 1-5) Now for the speculative punt. If anyone followed me last year, you'll know I've taken this bet once before and I see no reason not to go in again here. Edfors is a fast starter, that's a given, and has form here with his last 3 opening rounds here being 68-70-66; in 2 of those events, his opening round was his best of the week and the other was only a shot off. 5 times last year, he opened with rounds of 66 or better and only 3 times did he achieve that same score in rounds 2-4. He hits the ball a long way and generally copes better with the pressure-free start of a tournament so at a 3 figure price, I'll have small stakes on him to start fast. R.Cabrera-Bello, Top Continental Euro, 1pt EW @ 50/1 Ladbrokes (1/4 odds 1-4) Another speculative bet but I just can't bring myself to leave the Spaniard out of my calculations. A decent player who has plenty of ability and looks a spot of value in an open Euro market. This bet is made purely on his form on the Gulf Swing which is considered an important consideration when betting in these events. We've already seen that the statistic about South African's winning on home turf has held up perfectly with them winning every SA event this year so I'll take a similar thread here and back a player with solid form over the next events (Abu Dhabi, Qatar & Dubai Desert). Well, not many have form to match of Cabrera-Bello with his 3 event form being 7-3-20. A repeat of that great start to 2011 will see him in the mix and, although I don't see him winning the overall event, I think he can make his presence felt in this smaller field.

[kevshat]

Re: Golf: European Tour 2012 - Abu Dhabi Championship Excellent start this week chaps. Karlsson is joint leader but Schwartzel, Olesen and Horne are all under par for the thread. Good luck over the remaining three days guys :hope.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Golf: European Tour 2012 - Abu Dhabi Championship Unfortunately Horne was a first round leader bet only so no quite good enough. And Kaymer showed why I should stick to looking for long shots! I do see one here though: David Drysdale 2nd Round Leader @ 51 Paddy The scot will play in the morning where the winds are weaker (both leaders tees off in the morning). Accuracy is key here with he ough playing longer and Drysdale has been very good in this regard so far. He is only 3 behind currently and I think he has a round of 66 or 67 in him, which would certainly put him in the frame.

[Aidymac]

Re: Golf: European Tour 2012 - Abu Dhabi Championship Blow it up ref.. :lol

[PerryPFC]

Re: Golf: European Tour 2012 - Abu Dhabi Championship

Blow it up ref.. :lol

Lol... Hope he sticks at least a place out for you mate! Somebody (Can't remember who?) backed Olsen regularly last year, hope they did this year also! Mind you, I was backing Mannessro most weeks last year but didn't this year....

[Aidymac]

Re: Golf: European Tour 2012 - Abu Dhabi Championship I will be sickened if he doesnt place mate, i backed him solely because of the price, if he was 100/1 i wouldnt have backed him, 250/1 is ridiculous, i could have even got 275/1 but that was only 5 places, said id take the smaller price for the extra place, which could turn out to be wise come Sunday....... Schwartzel is still very much in the hunt too, only 3 behind. Makes an exciting weekend anyways.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Golf: European Tour 2012 - Abu Dhabi Championship Good luck for the weekend Aidy. :hope

[RussP]

Re: Golf: European Tour 2012 - Abu Dhabi Championship Absolutely. Good luck Aidy, really hope Olesen & Schwartzel place for you but are beaten by Rob Karlsson, the only one of mine in with a chance. Looking forward to the next 2 days.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Golf: European Tour 2012 - Abu Dhabi Championship Forgot you had Karlsson going Russ. Best of luck this weekend too - He's been putting well so every chance. Not really found much of a groove with the Euro Tour to date (-6pts this weekend as stake on Drysdale was 1pt) but going to have another small dabble at something that appeals: 1pt Padraig Harrington to win @ 28 Betfair 1pt Padraig Harrington Top 5 @ 4.7 Betfair Harrington hasn't really regained his top form but he's shown class in patches these last two weeks. I was impressed with him last week in the Volvo where really he would have contended but for a pair of double bogeys on a Par 5. He has a pair of 5th placed finishes at this event and with everything so congested at the top and the course playing quite tough and hard to score really well on, I think the class of Harrington has a chance.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Golf: European Tour 2012 - Abu Dhabi Championship Some pretty poor performances by my guys this weekend. Going to dabble in a few 3 balls opposing big favourites who seem to be struggling a little bit to get their game going. 0.5pts 3 Balls - Wattel to beat Canizares & Schwartzel @ 3.50 Paddy A bit of value here I feel as Schwartzel just hasn't got it going this weekend. Neither he nor Canizares have broken 70 this week, whilst Wattel has shot a 69 in both rounds 2 and 3. 0.5pts 3 Balls - Kingston to beat Coetzee & Gonnet @ 3.10 Sportingbet Gonnet has been solid but only has 6 birdies over the last 2 rounds, whereas Kingston had 6 yesterday alone. Coetzee had 5 and an eagle and is a deserved favourite, but I don't think he's really at the level yet where I want to favour him by as much as he is.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Golf: European Tour 2012 - Abu Dhabi Championship Bad luck Aidy. Olesen was a cracking pick in such a talented field and it definitely deserved a placing.

[Aidymac]

Re: Golf: European Tour 2012 - Abu Dhabi Championship

Bad luck Aidy. Olesen was a cracking pick in such a talented field and it definitely deserved a placing.

I feel sick Crouchy. :puke Thought i would get a place at least with 6 places on offer, 3 bogeys today cost him, i think he was only 1 shot away from the money. Ah well, thats golf, hope Perez can put in a good round and finish 5th tonight :sad Fingers crossed for Kyle

[RussP]

Re: European Tour 2012 - Abu Dhabi Championship The margins are just so small. Very unlucky Aidy but you should take some satisfaction with your selection criteria. Things will even themselves out soon, I'm sure. Personally, a terrible week for me. Back to +9.50pts for the season now, still searching that first big winner of 2012. As mentioned earlier, we'll now open up a thread per event so I'm off to unstick this thread & create a new one for next week:ok

[Aidymac]

Re: European Tour 2012 - Abu Dhabi Championship

The margins are just so small. Very unlucky Aidy but you should take some satisfaction with your selection criteria. Things will even themselves out soon, I'm sure. Personally, a terrible week for me. Back to +9.50pts for the season now, still searching that first big winner of 2012. As mentioned earlier, we'll now open up a thread per event so I'm off to unstick this thread & create a new one for next week:ok

Exactly Russ, small margins indeed. Both players i backed in ET finished in the Top 20, so i can take a bit of satisfaction that im getting a run for my money, however when you have 20 quid e/w on a 250/1 shot that is leading at half way and doesnt place, it is heart-wrenching to say the least, i was in agony watching the last 9 holes today..... Over in America, looks like i may be hitting another crossbar with Perez, who currently lies T14th. I will hit one before the season is out though, so will you, Striker and Crouchy, no doubts about it..... What am i saying, Stanley should win this tonight, hope he does for Crouchy :hope PS. Think the new thread for each week is brilliant, thanks.