pupsaa Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 30 Dec-1 Jan why do punters on here bet on mainly over 2.00 ' date=' rather bets like man u to win at 1.14 , its a [b']safe bet with 14% profit .. why not build slow and steady rather than go for high odds with quite a gamble ?:rollin It's a safe bet from your point of view and it's not a profit until you actually win it. Maybe I see better value in a 2.0 bet rather than Man United winning at home against a struggling Blackburn. And what's the point in betting on a 1.14 odds? If you make 10 bets like this and one of them fails, you are back where you started. So unless you put 10 bets like this in a combo, for a 3.7 total odds, I see no value in them and it's still gambling to me Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jompy Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 30 Dec-1 Jan Liverpool - Newcastle Liverpool missed to win 2 straight games, as first let Wigan to grab point from their visit, where Charlie Adam missed penalty, and then Kenny's squad made draw at home against Blackburn, where Clarlie Adam scored an own goal!. Liverpool could welcome back their captain Gerrard and I expect him to lead the squad for the full pack of points today. Liverpool got just 3 points less than 4th placed Chelsea, but also just 1 point more than Newcastle, so this is gonna be derby IMO. Liverpool got some troubles and defensive problems at home, as they made goal/goal option in 7 of their last 9 home games. Newcastle won over Bolton with 0:2, where Ba and Arfa scored the goals. That put the end of a 6 games winless run for guests, and they will be motivated to contniue their boucing back against Liverpool. Newcastle will miss Danny Guthrie (groin), Peter Lovenkrands (calf) and Steven Taylor (Achilles) remain on the sidelines. Davide Santon is back from Injury, and Dan Gosling is back from suspession for Newcastle. Newcastle scored at least once in 11 of their last 12 visits, but their defense is also shaky, as they kept only 1 clean sheet in last 9 visits, conceding 3 from Nottingham, 3 from Man City, 4 from Norwich and 4 from Blackburn, so I expect some troubles for them against strong motivated home side as Liverpool. I expect fast and aggressive football at at least 3 goals here over 2.5 goals 2.00 @ William Hill 4/10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitch Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 30 Dec-1 Jan Liverpool vs Newcaslte This isn't the usual type of match I bet on with my multiple correct score method but I decided to give it a try. Now, a lot has been said on this match. I don't think Newcastle will come out with a win but I think it could easily finish in either a draw or a Liverpool win. I wouldn't be surprised if this game ended Under 1.5, but then again, it could finish Over 3.5. Liverpool haven't been scoring a lot at all, especially at home, but they have been creating chances so their problem has been in their finishing. With Suarez out, the team does lose something in attack obviously. From what I understand, Gerrard won't be starting but will probably come in as a sub. I think it's well known that Liverpool up their game against bigger teams. Newcastle as well have recorded some decent results against top opposition, namely drawing 1-1 at Old Trafford but they did lose 3-1 @ Man City. So I don't think Liverpool will manage to score 4+ goals vs Newcastle, even if Gerrard is returning (not sure how Carroll will react facing Newcastle, some player play worse, some better). Considering Ba is in excellent form, Newcastle have scored in 8 of their 9 away games, and Liverpool have conceded in 7 out of 9 home games, I think it's likely that Newcastle will score tonight. Correct Score: 1-1 @ 9.4 2-1 @ 9.6 3-1 @ 14.5 Betfair I'll make a very nice profit if any of the above bets win (or if the game ends 0-2), and I'll break even if the game ends: 0-0, 1-0, 2-0, 3-0 ,0-1, 1-2 or 2-2 :) But I'll lose A LOT if none of the scores mentioned here win. :hope:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitch Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 30 Dec-1 Jan Ba to score anytime @ 3.7 Betfair I think this screams value considering Ba has scored 1 less goal than Van Persie in the EPL, and considering Newcastle have scored in 8 of their 9 away games, and Liverpool have conceded in 7 out of 9 home games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SgtTr Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 30 Dec-1 Jan Liverpool to win to nil @ 2.2. Liverpool has the best defensive record jointly with Manchester United. Agger and Skertl form a solid pair and considering that Liverpool have dominated all their opponents at Anfield this season Newcastle won't have a plethora of chances tonight. I'm going for a Liverpool win as Newcastle have lost momentum (see Mustafa's reasoning earlier) and can't see them threatening Liverpool, when even Manchester City were on the back foot at Anfield. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JPee Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 30 Dec-1 Jan Liverpool to win to nil @ 2.2. Liverpool has the best defensive record jointly with Manchester United. Agger and Skertl form a solid pair and considering that Liverpool have dominated all their opponents at Anfield this season Newcastle won't have a plethora of chances tonight. I'm going for a Liverpool win as Newcastle have lost momentum (see Mustafa's reasoning earlier) and can't see them threatening Liverpool' date=' when even Manchester City were on the back foot at Anfield.[/quote'] i dont understand why you guys are talking about liverpool dominating all their opponents? they just win 3 games at home and their odds are around 1.5 . in my opinion there is absolutely NO value. :unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MisterBadham Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Game: Sunderland v Man City Bet: Man City -1 Odds: 5/4 Strength: 9/10 After being held at West Brom Man City are going to be looking to bounce back and bounce back big, Sunderland have lost five of their six games against the current top seven and although Martin O'Neil seems to have made a great transition in a small amount of time slick City are going to be to much for them. Fully-fit Edin Dzeko is due to start up front and could lead the likely destruction of the home defence who have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last six games. Other good bets could be... Edin Dzeko first goal @ 4/1 Man City to win 3-0 @ 10/1 Mister Badham Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
western skies Posted December 30, 2011 Author Share Posted December 30, 2011 Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 30 Dec-1 Jan i dont understand why you guys are talking about liverpool dominating all their opponents? they just win 3 games at home and their odds are around 1.5 . in my opinion there is absolutely NO value. :unsure Well, Liverpool have dominated most of their opponents at Anfield this season. The problem is that they haven't scored anywhere near enough goals and have drawn 6 home games as a result. I don't think the loss of Suarez harms them in the goalscoring department, as he's hardly been prolific this season, but I think it may harm them creatively. A lot of punters seem to be pinning their hopes on Gerrard's return, but that's asking a lot considering how little football he's played this year. It wouldn't surprise me if it takes him a while to get back to anywhere near his best. I've not had a chance to look at any of this weekend's games in detail, so I'm not betting, but I have to say I think Liverpool's price is extremely skinny here and the value would seem to lie in opposing them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goodens Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 30 Dec-1 Jan Sport Football (England - Prem) Event Liverpool - Newcastle Selection Over 2.5 goals Strength 10/10 Date 30/12/2011 Bookmaker/Price William Hill @ 2.00 Reasoning I've been awfully wrong with predicting matches from England. My logic based on this season performances from Liverpool tells me to go for the under, so I'll take the over 2.5 goals. Newcastle to be put in their own half for most of the game, Liverpool in control. Andy Caroll to put one or 2 past his former team, as this often happens when ex-players face their former employees. I'm not really counting much on Newcastle here, hopefully Liverpool will be able to do the job by themselves. Hopefully Gerrard will be involved from the start, but going against my logic in England Premier League makes this bet rock-solid :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plugster01 Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 30 Dec-1 Jan I agree with you there.I'm looking for 4 game's to draw over the weekend,and Bolton-Wolves is on my coupon.Now for the other 3 game's. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThusPrider Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 30 Dec-1 Jan Liverpool - Newcastle Rated this with 63/25/12, and to my displeasure the real odds had no value whatsoever. I hate skipping EPL games, so ive had to dig abit deeper to find value on this one. My first thought was to go for the unders/overs market, and liverpool has the meanest defence in the premier league, conceading less goals than both manchester clubs. However, they have had trouble scoring and even relegation threatened Blackburn and Bolton both have scored more goals than them. Unders I thought would be a good choice. However, I do fancy Newcastle to score also with Ba on fire. Then i'd thought of BTTS @ 11/10, but that conflicted with my initial thought of unders. Thus flashing up the potential to go for correct score of 1 - 1 @ 10.00, however with correct score bets I find them rarely profitable in the long run with generally higher margins charged by bookmakers, though you can usually sniff out marginally better odds at betting exchanges. Usually i'd post my predictions here, but im really struggling... I seemed to have typed myself out of a bet... Well, ill give this an edit if I do decide to give it a shot before KO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plugster01 Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 30 Dec-1 Jan Hi everyone , thanks for replys understood now .. Want a decent bet with a great chance of a cool return i believe 3 matches are looking a draw . here we go bolton - wolfs norwich city - fulham west brom - everton at odds of over 3-1 i think betting on there three will be great for a return if successfull and even odds if only one makes it.... 2 units on all three to draw ! not many goals are being exchanged with these teams and also they are pretty much even stevens. good bet i think , thoughts ? thanks :ok That looks pretty good,although the law of average's say all three wont draw.Bolton have not drawn this season home or away,so there "due" a draw.Fulham, i think,will beat Norwich and the West Brom-Everton game i think will be a draw. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mustafa Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 30 Dec-1 Jan That looks pretty good' date='although the law of average's say all three wont draw.Bolton have not drawn this season home or away,so there "due" a draw.Fulham, i think,will beat Norwich and the West Brom-Everton game i think will be a draw.[/quote'] And why do you think that? Can we have little reasoning please. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ttb Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 30 Dec-1 Jan Haris Vučkič to score at anytime @ 9.50 This is my second small bet on tonight's game. He has a chance to prove to his manager that he has what it takes. If he performs tonight he could cement himself in the Newcastle lineup. He has had a good number of shots on and off target in the few games he has played and he does look like a decent player. Small stake on this is worth it at these odds in my opinion! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brimmy Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 30 Dec-1 Jan For those of you concerned, Gerrard will be starting on the bench. Combine that with the recent history of Liverpool draws, Carrol starting, and a midfield of Henderson, Adam, Downing and Spearing and I think Newcastle have a great chance here. Basically I'm expecting Liverpool to struggle to score and despite the fact they are at home and have the best defense in the league I can still see they may struggle with Ba's ridiculous form. Newcastle +1 2.55 @ Bwin. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
-James M- Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 30 Dec-1 Jan Newcastle +0.5 @ 2.5, 5 Units While Newcastle have been on a bad run I still think they have a lot of class about them. The team has gelled together well and have some real class in the ranks (Ba, Cabaye, R. Taylor). Liverpool on the other hand don't look much like a group who want to play for each other. On top of this I don't see where their goals will come from (Glen Johnson? haha)! Think Newcastle should at least take a point tonight. Ba First Goalscorer and Newcastle Win @ 18/1, 1 Unit Ba has been incredible this season but has struggled the last few games and will be looking to get back into the fine form he began the season with. I think he is by far and away the most likely newcastle scorer and as I can't see who will actually score for liverpool I really fancy Ba to start the game off. I decided to double it up with a Newcastle win as I think if Newcastle go ahead (i.e via first scorer) Liverpool haven't got the quality up front to pull the game back. Makes sense to take this @ 18/1 rather than just Ba first scorer at 7/1. GL all! :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plugster01 Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 30 Dec-1 Jan And why do you think that? Can we have little reasoning please. Firstly,Bolton have not had a draw all season,home or away.Therfore with them hosting Wolves,this becomes a no lose game for either team. West Brom verses Everton,again a very tite game and i predict a 1-1 draw.Moyes will set his team out not to lose.A point at West brom who are playing well at the moment,will be good for Everton. Norwich are playing well at home,however having seen Fulham-Chelsea on boxing day, i can honestley see them scraping a 1-0 win against Norwich.Norwich have only won 2 from there past 10 games. And when you pick 3 draw's on your coupon{all from the same league},when do they ever come in?That's my law off averages. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beer Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 30 Dec-1 Jan I'm taking an early one for Friday's match at Anfield: - 8pts Newcastle Team Goals: Over 0.5 @ 8/11 [Ladbrokes] Doesn't take a genius to see that Alan Pardew has revolutionised Newcastle football club. They're only three points off a Champions League spot at the moment and in Demba Ba, they have one of the most improved players in the country. Getting 8/11 for them to score at Anfield this weekend is a good bet for me and the stats do their best to back that up. Newcastle have scored in seven of their 8 league away matches this season whilst Liverpool have conceded in seven of their nine home matches. Newcastle's away visits have seen them go to the Etihad, Old Trafford, Villa Park, The Stadium of Light and the Reebok whilst Liverpool put in a God awful performance at the weekend against Blackburn, letting them score a shocking goal. I'm not convinced with this Liverpool side right now and without Suarez too their team lacks any punch. Newcastle are on fire though. As mentioned above, they have a good knack of scoring away from home this season and they seemingly have a full strength squad. I can't really see them not scoring here this weekend and I will play strongly that they will. thankyou for this tip , 5 mins before the star i decided to put medium stake on this bet , because thoes are great odds and my bet already won :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 30 Dec-1 Jan (Re. Newcastle v Liverpool) I've not had a chance to look at any of this weekend's games in detail, so I'm not betting. That doesn't seem to stop most people (me included) :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goodens Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 30 Dec-1 Jan Sport Football (England - Prem) Event Liverpool - Newcastle Selection Over 2.5 goals Strength 10/10 Date 30/12/2011 Bookmaker/Price William Hill @ 2.00 Reasoning I've been awfully wrong with predicting matches from England. My logic based on this season performances from Liverpool tells me to go for the under, so I'll take the over 2.5 goals. Newcastle to be put in their own half for most of the game, Liverpool in control. Andy Caroll to put one or 2 past his former team, as this often happens when ex-players face their former employees. I'm not really counting much on Newcastle here, hopefully Liverpool will be able to do the job by themselves. Hopefully Gerrard will be involved from the start, but going against my logic in England Premier League makes this bet rock-solid :) piss poor game, 3 shitty goals, and bet won, screw logic and u shall profit :cow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mustafa Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 30 Dec-1 Jan Liverpool -1 AH @ 1.85 (5 units) Bet365 Liverpool totally deserved the win :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nigelixtiti Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 30 Dec-1 Jan Sport Football (England - Prem) Event Liverpool - Newcastle Selection Over 2.5 goals Strength 10/10 Date 30/12/2011 Bookmaker/Price William Hill @ 2.00 Reasoning I've been awfully wrong with predicting matches from England. My logic based on this season performances from Liverpool tells me to go for the under, so I'll take the over 2.5 goals. Newcastle to be put in their own half for most of the game, Liverpool in control. Andy Caroll to put one or 2 past his former team, as this often happens when ex-players face their former employees. I'm not really counting much on Newcastle here, hopefully Liverpool will be able to do the job by themselves. Hopefully Gerrard will be involved from the start, but going against my logic in England Premier League makes this bet rock-solid :) LOL Hahahah I can't tell if ur Trolling over the internet but congratz on ur win! :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H1 Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 30 Dec-1 Jan I think there is value in backing Chelsea to concede @2 So far this season they have kept a clean sheet only against Wolves. The likes of Norwich, Man City or Fulham managed to score at Stamford, so I guess Aston Villa will also have a chance last season they did 3 times cheers lads! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitch Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 30 Dec-1 Jan Liverpool vs Newcaslte Correct Score: 1-1 @ 9.4 2-1 @ 9.6 3-1 @ 14.5 Betfair I'll make a very nice profit if any of the above bets win (or if the game ends 0-2), and I'll break even if the game ends: 0-0, 1-0, 2-0, 3-0 ,0-1, 1-2 or 2-2 :) But I'll lose A LOT if none of the scores mentioned here win. :hope:hope Got a bit anxious there after it reached 3-1 haha good day for me :) too bad that own goal wasn't scored by Ba, wouldve won that bet as well but only had 1 unit on that Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SuperImps Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 30 Dec-1 Jan man utd win 3-0 v blackburn, Norwich should win but fulham at 2/1 could be keep eye on who played upfront.:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazze2 Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 30 Dec-1 Jan well its a fairly safe bet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SuperImps Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 30 Dec-1 Jan bolton v wolves on form latey it be wolves ahead but i see bolton getting a win at home. may not be enough at end of the season but enough to win saturday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NapalmDeath Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 30 Dec-1 Jan Liverpool totally deserved the win :ok Very nice tip, cheers! Had BTTS on this game too, trebled with some +0.5 AH :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dak Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 30 Dec-1 Jan That looks pretty good' date='although the law of average's say all three wont draw.Bolton have not drawn this season home or away,so there "due" a draw.Fulham, i think,will beat Norwich and the West Brom-Everton game i think will be a draw.[/quote'] Respectfully, I don't think the law of averages affects whether a match will end in a given result (in this case the draw) or not. In the last round of PL matches (26-27 December) 7/10 encounters ended in a draw. Statistically, each match is an independent event and the result does not depend on other results. Incidentally, I think all three of the mentioned matches are likely draws and probably worth a bet. With level stakes one draw will return the total amount staked and 2 or 3 will provide a good profit. Just a thought.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
western skies Posted December 31, 2011 Author Share Posted December 31, 2011 Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 30 Dec-1 Jan man utd win 3-0 v blackburn, Norwich should win but fulham at 2/1 could be keep eye on who played upfront.:ok bolton v wolves on form latey it be wolves ahead but i see bolton getting a win at home. may not be enough at end of the season but enough to win saturday. We don't ask for a lot on PL, but one thing we do require in the betting threads is some reasoning. Posts like these really belong in here: http://forum.punterslounge.com/f6/weekend-bets-30-dec-1-jan-124996/ :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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