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Copa del Rey 2011-2012


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Re: Copa del Rey (2/10) Valencia/Sevilla - Under 3 Goals @ 1.64 with Pinnacle Tight match and since Sevilla will be without the main offensive forces, they will be looking to defend a lot more than they usually do. I definitely do not see four goals coming in this clash, so this looks like a nice bet at decent price. High-profile matches bring tension and few goals, that might easily happen here.

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Re: Copa del Rey Well i didn't have time to post, but i got 2 winning bets yday, barca to win+over 3.5 goals and correct score of 4-0/5-0/6-0 for 1.70 and 3.30 respectively @ Bwin, making up for the horrible loses of the last premier league fixtures :moon. Today i think i will go for Valencia to win + under 3.5 goals with a small stake @ 2.50 (Bwin). Sevilla has 2 key players injured and i think there will be a more cautious approach by both teams for the decisive return leg. More adventurous people can back the same bet but with under 2.5 goals for 4.25 odds. GL everyone!

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Re: Copa del Rey

Valencia without 1st keeper Guaita, defender Maduro and midfielder Canales. Good news is that Banega is completely ready and he will try to make opportunities to attacking tandem Soldado - Jonas. On the other hand, away side from Andalusia have two important absences, midfielder Perotti and striker Kanoute who was a double scorer in last Sevilla match. Home team will have support by well completed stadium Mestalla and it can be crucial in this match, imo. Both coaches were announced a very serious approach to tonight's match because they want to give win to their supporters on the eve a great feast, which means a donation of gifts. At least I think we'll see at least one goal from these teams in interesting match where home side is close to victory... over 2,5 @2.00 Paddy Power :( stake>> 3/10 fair>> @1.80 feel>> 2:1
1:0 in a very dynamic game at Mestalla where both teams missed several good chances, unfortunately for my over... congratulations to the winners...
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Re: Copa del Rey Mallorca vs Sociedad First leg ended 2-0 for Basque team. They won pretty easily with 2-0 and I think they already endured a place in the next phase. Mallorca is having big problems in scoring goals as you can see they managed to score just 3 goals in last 5 matches, 2 in the 2-0 win in Gijon. Sociedad is a team that defended well recently, conceded twice with Granada and just 3 goals in last 5 matches. expect a low scoring match here. under 2.5 goals @ 1.88 with Pinnacle Sports Santander vs Mirantes Mirantes from Segunda B won 2-0 in the first leg, a match that had some goal chances, but wasn't a beautiful one. Mirantes is the leader of Segunda B and major part of their games are ending with unders. Santander has an average o their home games of 1.11. They are a defensive minded team and will meet a team that will not come to defend here all the game. Mirandes will try to be balanced exactly as they have been in the first leg. under 2.5 goals is the suitable bet here! @ 1.78 with Canbet

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Re: Copa del Rey Malaga v Real Madrid My pick is Both Teams to Score @ 1.62. My reasoning is simple, Malaga NEED a goal in order to go through, and being at home, we should expect them to be able to get at least one. With Malaga pushing for that goal, Real will have more chances to exploit, and also, knowing that Malaga have 2 Away goals under their belt, should Malaga score at least one, Real MUST put one in, in order to stay alive.

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Re: Copa del Rey

Event Malaga - Real Madrid
Selection draw
Strength 10/10
Date 10/01/2012
Bookmaker/Price Stan James @ 5.00
Reasoning Real Madrid doesn't care about that cup, they allowed Malaga to take 0-2 lead at Bernabeu past week, finally won 3-2 when Mourinho made good substitutes, he pulled out usually reserve players and put in such titular. Many of Real key players will miss this match, I wrote that Ronaldo will not be playing he is the heart and soul by that team, if he sits on the bench I think Malaga has good chances not to lose today. Malaga will throw all their best players if they keep the fit of past week I see good opportunities to that team over goal but Real is Real the best team in the world so draw.
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Re: Copa del Rey

Event Malaga - Real Madrid
Selection draw
Strength 10/10
Date 10/01/2012
Bookmaker/Price Stan James @ 5.00
Reasoning Real Madrid doesn't care about that cup, they allowed Malaga to take 0-2 lead at Bernabeu past week, finally won 3-2 when Mourinho made good substitutes, he pulled out usually reserve players and put in such titular. Many of Real key players will miss this match, I wrote that Ronaldo will not be playing he is the heart and soul by that team, if he sits on the bench I think Malaga has good chances not to lose today. Malaga will throw all their best players if they keep the fit of past week I see good opportunities to that team over goal but Real is Real the best team in the world so draw.
I simply cannot agree with you, that Real Madrid doesn´t care about that cup. Also, Mourinho is not going to use rotation system in this match, what is clear when you see list of players which he had taken to Malaga. Goalkeepers: Casillas, Adan, Jesus Defenders: Ramos, Marcelo, Varane, Albiol, Pepe, Coentrão and Arbeloa Midfielders: Lass, Khedira, Xabi Alonso, Özil, Callejón, Altintop and Kaká Forwards: Cristiano Ronaldo, Higuaín, Benzema No players from Castilla, so we can expect strong startin XI tonight. MARCA´s suggested line-up (Casillas - Arbeloa, Pepe, Ramos, Marcelo - Lass, Alonso, Khedira - Ozil, Ronaldo, Higuain) says that Mourinho is seemed to take a quite defensive approach in this game. Yeah, of course, your draw is possible, but I would prefer something like Real to win by 1 goal (maybe 1-2). Real to win by 1 goal - @3.40 - Bet365
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Re: Copa del Rey Simply got to take this one despite cups are often place for weird results, but still, strong lineup for Racing today and yeah, their opponent with all due respect are still only third division club, which is having excellent cup run - beating Villareal (but who did not beat them this season already). I believe this run stops today. Racing also with new coach Juanjo and this squad for the return leg: Dani Sotres, Alvaro Gonzalez, Torrejón, Bernard, Christian, Schism, Colsa, Tziolis, Edu Bedia, Kennedy, Arana, Munitis, Jairo, Stuani, Acosta and Ariel. There are some missings as Diop and Francis, but i do believe Racing should have too much for Mirandes today. Racing -1ah @2.50 bet365

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Re: Copa del Rey

I simply cannot agree with you, that Real Madrid doesn´t care about that cup. Also, Mourinho is not going to use rotation system in this match, what is clear when you see list of players which he had taken to Malaga. Goalkeepers: Casillas, Adan, Jesus Defenders: Ramos, Marcelo, Varane, Albiol, Pepe, Coentrão and Arbeloa Midfielders: Lass, Khedira, Xabi Alonso, Özil, Callejón, Altintop and Kaká Forwards: Cristiano Ronaldo, Higuaín, Benzema No players from Castilla, so we can expect strong startin XI tonight. MARCA´s suggested line-up (Casillas - Arbeloa, Pepe, Ramos, Marcelo - Lass, Alonso, Khedira - Ozil, Ronaldo, Higuain) says that Mourinho is seemed to take a quite defensive approach in this game. Yeah, of course, your draw is possible, but I would prefer something like Real to win by 1 goal (maybe 1-2). Real to win by 1 goal - @3.40 - Bet365
Mourinho stated in his press conference yesterday that he wants to win the Kings cup again. He is going to put his best available team out and ensure Madrid progress too the next round. I dont see Malaga sitting back in this match as they need to score to have any chance of progressing too the next round. Malaga are an offensive minded team and will attack from the off. That will play into Madrids hands who will sit tight and wait to hit Malaga at break neck speed on the counter attack. I can see Madrid winning this 3-1 maybe even 4-1.
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Re: Copa del Rey

Real to win by 1 goal - @3.40 - Bet365
Well done lazynko :clap:clap I like the look of the overs in Sevilla match tomorrow. Watched the first leg in Valencia last week and although there was only one goal it was really open encounter full of chances at both ends! That was first game after the short break in Spain so maybe I can understand why players missed that final touch. Valencia could have easily scored 4 or 5 there, but they were lucky not to concede. They've improved their offence for the midweek scoring two to draw away at Villareal and i'm definitely expect them to score a few here, but they'e had the same problems in defense and Villareal put two past them in the opening 20 mins. Sevilla shouldn't calculate in this return leg, they are serious about this cup which they've won in 07' and 10', and I can see them entering this fully motivated. Navas and Kanoute are injured and it's a bit of a concern, but they have the players to advance to the quater-finals. Signing of Reyes should be a boost and hes expected to start. Like to think it will be an open game once again and I'll have a try on Goal Line Over 2,5 @ 1,98 (6/10) 365
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Re: Copa del Rey *First gk Alvarez is injured, and second choice Casilla is suspended for Espanyol. *Lopez Silva (mf) returns for Cordoba, but Charles (fw, 2nd team scorer) is still out. Their coach Jémez is suspended. *Sevilla will be without regular gk Palop who is injured. Important midfielders Jesus Navas and Diego Perotti are fit, as Reyes who arrived from Atl Madrid. *Captain Albelda returns from suspension, so Valencia don't have a important absences. :cigar:cigar

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Re: Copa del Rey Levante vs Alcorcon Due to the defeat in the first leg it seems that the coach will send today the strongest team on the field. One goal is enough to seal the qualification, but Levante will surely try to end the pain and to put more behind Alcorcon's net. Will be hard to do it as they have suffered in front of goal lately, but Levante can start the year now, with a comfortable win! home -1 AH @ 1.95 with Pinnacle Sports

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Re: Copa del Rey Sevilla - Valencia I expected over in the first game, but Valencia showed strong defensive skills. This time i will try to bounce back again with goals. Sevilla will search the goal from the beginning but I cant see them with clean sheet. They got 7 straight overs at home, keeping clean sheet only once. They conceded from teams like Gijon-1, Granada-2, Bilbao-2, Santander-2, Real M -6, and low divison San Roque-1. Sevilla will miss regular keepere - palop, but their midfield will be boosted by recovered Perroti and Jesus Navas, and just arrived from Atl. Madrid - Reyes. Valencia will have old fellow Albelda after suspession, so no big misses. Valencia finished 2:2 in their last away game against Villareal, making 4 overs in their last 5 visits. I expect both teams to score, and this time the over seems clear O 3.5 goals 3.50 @ Boylesports

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Re: Copa del Rey

Event Espanyol - Cordoba
Selection Espanyol -1.5 (Asian-handicap)
Strength 10/10
Date 11/01/2012
Bookmaker/Price Pinnacle Sports @ 2.39
Reasoning Espanyol lost unhappy first leg in Cordoba 2-1 after taking 0-1 lead they received red card with ten man playing 40 minutes they allowed two lated goals to struggle in that match. However few days later Espanyol stopped the best team in the world Barcelona in local derby with late goal they clinch a point 1-1 match drawn. Espanyol need of two goals spread to reach the quarters, they showed that can play great soccer, because it is not easy Messi, Xavi, Iniesta to be stopped. On the other hand Cordoba is not in good road fit right now. Cordoba lost three and drew one in past five road games. They have a luck in first game but now I think they can't do anything to stop Espanyol.
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Re: Copa del Rey Bilbao - Albacete: Both Teams to Score: Yes @ 2.37 (William Hill) 10/10 The odds for the BTTS bet are just too long to ignore. The 0-0 score of the reverse fixture leaves qualification open and both sides will be looking to score and win this encounter. Bilbao has kept a clean sheet at home in only 11.1% of its matches while failing to score also 11.1% of the time. Albacete has scored in 14/16 away matches and has scored 5/5 times when visiting Bilbao. Osasuna - Barcelona: 2-3 Match Goals @ 2.05 (Bet365) 10/10 Given the 4-0 win by Barcelona in the reverse fixture I don't think there is much doubt about which team will qualify. I believe Osasuna will want to escape with respect and thus will watch its defense so as to prevent another thrashing (they lost 8-0 in Barcelona this year in a league match!!). Barcelona will probably not play in top gear and judging from its recent 1-1 result against Espanyol the team may not be in top gear all together. We'll probably get a couple of goals for the sake of entertaining the spectators but I can't see too many goals in the match. 4/7 recent matches between these two teams have had 2-3 goals and the odds are acceptable for the bet.

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Re: Copa del Rey

The odds are mighty short for Barcelona. I think they would maybe be around 1.35 in a League game' date=' but for a game they have already won 4-0.... too much uncertainty around it. If anyone's got any early team news, do share.[/quote'] Yea, bookies are so nasty. Even tho Barca will have mixed squad in a match with 0 motivation to crash the opponent, bookies are forcing us to take them on -1.5 or smt in order to get some sort of value. Betting on Barca in this one is like betting roulette. They might win by 3-4 goals margin, and they might as well tie 1:1 or play some sick under 0:1 or smt. Thats why I am not taking Barca on handicap today. My bet is Osasuna to score anytime around 1.8 in local bookie. They lost 4/0 last match, 8/0 match before that and I seriously believe that Barca will let them score at least once to give their fans some sort of joy. What Real Madrid did few days earlier is giving me a lot of confidence. Two too strong clubs in any league are totally killing the competition and the spirit in the field and in the media. These matches are great so people can believe that there is some sort of balance and luck factor involved in the modern football. So give people some joy and let Osasuna to score! 10/10 stakes btw!
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Re: Copa del Rey

@dak Would you rather go on Osasuna to score then 2-3 goals? Last 4-5 meetings between them Barca kept clean sheet and that 8/0 earlier in the league will make the hosts to go for at least 1 goal against mighty Barca.
Osasuna may indeed score a goal, but as you note the fact that Barca has kept 6/7 clean sheets against Osasuna (the exception being on 31/10/2009 where the score was 1-1 at Osasuna) doesn't make it a very statistically strong possibility on the basis of H2H at least. The H2H indicates 4/7 matches with 2-3 goals and that is statistically stronger. In the end, Barca can even fail to win this match and still qualify to the next round (Barca would have to lose by a 5 goal margin to fail qualification). So, I feel that even if Osasuna scores a goal we may not get a tsunami of goals from Barcelona. The 1-1 result against Espanyol in the recent league match really predisposed me to believe that Barca may not be blazing at the moment.
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Re: Copa del Rey Odds certainly are strange. You could argue that Barca haven't been that fluent away from home: 3-4-1 this season, 12 goals for and 9 against is really totally at odds with their home form. Osasuna on the other hand are good at home: 5-3-0 and just 5 goals conceded. They are 5th in La Liga and obviously no slouches, which I am surprised that the market is treating them as such. I would say both teams would have good credibility with a draw. Barcelona really need the points in the League to catch up Real, I can't see them expending too much efforts here. I might have a dabble on the X/2 as I suspect a lot of talent might be left on the bench.

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