azzurini1976 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Re: Italy - Serie A - 20-21 December Udinese - Juventus If someone read Dylans writeup, i could rewrite it and post it here. One thing i have to point out is the fact, that also Conte rested three players in last game vs. Novara. Matri, Estiragbia and Vidal were those players for Juve. But more important is the fact of analyzing previous games. Especially against two bigger teams. Napoli game was a lucky one for Juve not to get the first loss, they were 2 goals down 20 mins from the end but managed to draw it, vs. Roma who we all remeber were in all sorts of troubles, they were, despite being better, lucky not to loose at the end. But lets remind oursevles, that Roma had so many players out then - 6 or 7 very. important and the birds were singing that Juve will win (i had my doubts then, due to mentioned laws of Serie A). Today, this one will be the battle of midfield, where both teams will have their own enforcers. Vidal and Marchisio on Juve side and Asamoah, Pinzi and Isla on Udinese side. My thoughts are that with 3-5-1-1 formation, Guidolin is tactically trying to kill of the danger that is coming from Juves midfield, neutralizing Pirlo is probably the most important thing there. Vidal, maight be also a bit out of confidence (see Roma game), while Marchisio is an excellent players, but could be lost in crowded Udine midfield. Goalkeepers are both great, i cant give an edge to Buffon here, maybe smallish. Defence is not a question, Benatia is a miss for Udinese, but they have adequate covers. Attack, i believe Udinese is better there. Di Natale is proven quality, and i still have my doubts over Estiragbia, who can be easily marked out, while Pepe could be okay in his role. All in all, i have this one as a draw in my book, with final score 1-1, but since i really believe Juventus run should come to an end eventually, i am taking Udinese today. Udinese +0.25 @ 1.89 sbobet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azzurini1976 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Re: Italy - Serie A - 20-21 December Parma - Catania no bet I will restrict myself from betting on this game as both teams looks shit currently and both miss some key players, i agree that there is value in Catania away, but i have this one as a draw, but will not bet on the game due to mentioned laws of Serie A which means that Parma needs win more than Catania and situational spot does not suggest strongly that the game should end in a draw. Hence i will leave this one alone Atalanta - Cesena Probably a weird bet looking from perspectives of results achieved so far. But i am pretty sure that Cesena might be (finnally) reaching their potential. I have Cesena in my book, surely not listed as relegation conteders, but as team which should finish in safe middle of the table. Looking at their latest performances, they are picking it up, and i believe that many teams on their level will have troubles with beating them, anyways, they werent aswell so harmless against bigger teams aswell. So, Mutu and also Candreva picking it up, i rate those two players very highly and along with Ghezzal and Eder, they form very formidabble attack. On other hand, Atalanta relies a lot on Denis daily form, and he is excellent this season, showing form from his Apertura and Clausura days. Anyway, teams are almost complete, so i wont mention those who miss out, maybe Schelotto who is not 100% fit is a miss for Atalanta (important for their offensive build up, but he is former Cesena man, so maybe his emotions will get better of him) and defender Capelli. Cesena misses Comotto also defender, but i reckon that apart from Schelotto, both players are replacable without to much fuss. I am going against the odds drift and playing on Cesena not to loose here, i certaintly wont be too surprised if they win it today aswell. Cesena +0.5 @ 2.08 sbobet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kar-ma Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Re: Italy - Serie A - 20-21 December Udinese – Juventus Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azzurini1976 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Re: Italy - Serie A - 20-21 December Udinese – Juventus It could be, but we are talking about two best defences in Serie A, so probably not much value in those odds. Still GL with the bet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitch Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Re: Italy - Serie A - 20-21 December Multiple: Inter v Lecce - Backing Inter @ 1.29 Atalanta v Cesena - Backing Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.56 Napoli v Genoa - Backing Napoli OR The Draw @ 1.11 Lazio v Chievo - Backing Lazio OR The Draw @ 1.12 Total odds @ 2.54 with Betfair. It took me a while to start winning multiple bets, but I'm starting to get the hang of it with some experience, having won 2 of the last 3 multiples I took. I like them because I usually bet half a stake or a 1.5 Units at the most, and I only take them after winning a "normal" bet, which I did yesterday from the EPL. Inter v Lecce - Backing Inter @ 1.29 Inter are on a revival, winning 5 of their last 6 Serie A matches since their loss to Juventus and they've kept clean sheets in their last 4 wins. Their home form reads: 3-1-3, the 3 losses came from Udinese, Juventus and Napoli though and the draw from Roma and have won against Cagliari, Fiorentina and Chievo. As for Lecce, their away form reads: 2-2-4. Their only 2 wins of the season have come on the road @ Bologna (week 2) and @ Cesena (week 10). They've actually gotten only 1 point all season at home, and 8 points away so it's fair to say they're a much better side away from home but they're still one of the weakest sides in Serie A, being rock bottom in the table with 10 goals conceded in their past 3 games and having the weakest defense in Serie A so far. I would take this bet on a -1 in the multiple if I could but Betfair doesn't offer that in multiples. Looking at the h2h between those 2 teams, Inter have managed to win 8 of their last 9 meetings at home since 1998. Atalanta v Cesena - Backing Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.56 I'm taking this one purely on the stats. 6 out of 7 of Atlanta's home games this season have gone Under 2.5 with their last 4 home games all going Under 2.5. Atlanta have scored 4 and conceded 3 in their past 4 home games. All 7 of Cesena's away games have gone Under 2.5 so far, including games played @ Juventus and Milan with 4 of them seeing only 1 goal in the match. Cesena have scored 2 and conceded 4 in their past 4 away games. Napoli v Genoa - Backing Napoli OR The Draw @ 1.11 Now I know some of you won't understand or won't see the value in adding both these games at odds so low, but adding them increased the overall odds from 2 to 2.54 and considering the extremely unlikely chances of either Napoli or Lazio losing at home to Genoa and Chievo, I am gladly adding them to the multiple. Although I first added both these games in the multiple as outright wins, I decided to play it safe and back the draw as well for a couple of reasons. Napoli have been horribly inconsistent with only 5 wins from 15 matches in Serie A and only 2 wins from their last 10! Those wins came against Lecce and Udinese at home. Their home form reads 3-3-2, with losses against Roma (last game) and Parma, and draws against Lazio, Juventus and Fiorentina. They've scored 8 and conceded 8 in their past 4 home matches. As for Genoa, their away form reads 2-1-4 with 4 goals scored and 5 goals conceded in their past 4 away matches which is pretty decent. Their most impressive away matches were a 1-2 win @ Lazio in week 2 and a 2-2 draw @ Juventus 2 months ago. Their only other away win came at Siena in their last away match. I highly doubt they'll be able to win @ Napoli but a draw isn't entirely out of the question. I think Napoli will be really motivated to win this game and I think they actually will win it, but like I said before, I'd rather play it extra safe. Lazio v Chievo - Backing Lazio OR The Draw @ 1.12 Lazio's home form reads 3-3-2 with 6 goals scored and 3 conceded in their 4 home games which included a 0-1 loss to Juventus and a 2-2 draw with Udinese. As for Chievo, their away form reads 1-1-5 with 4 goals scored and 11 conceded in the past 4 away matches which included a 4-0 loss to Milan and a 2-1 loss to Udinese. What's peculiar and the reason why I didn't take Lazio for an outright win is that neither team managed to win the other at home during their past 13 matches! The last time the home team won from either side against the other team was back in 2003 when Lazio won. Since then, either the away team wins this fixture or it ends in a draw, so that's why I decided to take the draw as a backup even though I think this chain will be broken by Lazio today. Overall odds of 2.54 with Betfair :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DHorozov Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Re: Italy - Serie A - 20-21 December Sport Football (Italy) Event Napoli - Genoa Selection Napoli Strength 10/10 Date 21/12/2011 Bookmaker/Price Ladbrokes @ 1.57 Reasoning Napoli hosts Genoa tonight at "San Paolo" and everything else than a win and three points for the home team will be a very dissapointing result for them. The team is already way off the top teams in Serie A and now there is no room for mistakes anymore, especially at home against the team from the bottom half of the table. Napoli won only one of their last seven games in the league and their home form since the start of the season is not impressive at all (3-3-2). Lavezzi is out for this game, so Mazzarri will most probably put Pandev as a partnor for Cavani in the attack. Gargano is also doubtful for the game tonight. Genoa is currently in eight place in the table, but the team depends mostly on the performance in their home games (4-2-2). Away from home the team is playing really bad and have only two wins in seven games (2-1-4). Genoa have a lot of troubles with injured players for this game. Kucka, Bovo, Birsa, Moretti and Palacio are all out for tonight. Last season Napoli won both games against Genoa with the same result - 1:0. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dabic Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Re: Italy - Serie A - 20-21 December so everyone on NAPOLI today! Well so am I :D SERIE A 20:45 Napoli - Genoa -------------------- 9/10 @ Napoli - 1.57 Paddy Power Napoli is looking for a win to keep up with top four team of serie A or they wont see champions leuage next season, Napoli in their last match vs Roma missed a lot of chances and scored just one, Roma was outplayed but they their counters and won the game. If Napoli will create once again so many chances here cs Genoa I dont see why they wont win. Genoa has many missing today and that can just easy the Napoli job. Maretti, Placio, Kucka, Bovo wont play today. Napoli will miss Lavezzi but Pandev can subsititue that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ultravires Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Re: Italy - Serie A - 20-21 December I'm hoping to wait and squeeze a bit more out the price but Udinese at 3.00 or above is a joke tonight. I'm looking to get on them in some respect. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azzurini1976 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Re: Italy - Serie A - 20-21 December I'm hoping to wait and squeeze a bit more out the price but Udinese at 3.00 or above is a joke tonight. I'm looking to get on them in some respect. i followed odds changes on sbobet and not much changes until not. Udine started the day on +0.25 1.89, fallen to 1.87, went up to 1.90, now again at 1.89. Probably odds could rise just before kickoff (blind sheep effect). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mahno Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Re: Italy - Serie A - 20-21 December Not an ideal start, think I may leave goal line bets for a while. Milan seemed happy to sit back from the 4th minute. Novara vs Palermo – Palermon DNB 2.30 at William Hills (2 units) :hope good preview man but the only thing that concern me alot is that palermo never scored in series A this season when play away.Novara only lost 2 matches at home to Roma nd Bologna.But GL with your bet-u'll need it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_E_M_P_E_S Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Re: Italy - Serie A - 20-21 December Where is Zlatan.....????????? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bepster Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Re: Italy - Serie A - 20-21 December Where is Zlatan.....????????? the fact that Fiorentina did NOT win I guess finally did him in. Also why? Azzurini and Dylan have already give excellent write ups about tonights games. I am following on the Udinese - Juve match. Should be a good clash that one!:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_E_M_P_E_S Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Re: Italy - Serie A - 20-21 December For me Udine - Juve is clear X...maybe X2 for me....Udine withou draw and lost...hmmmm;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oneofthebest Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Re: Italy - Serie A - 20-21 December Sport Football (Italy) Event Udinese - Juventus Selection Over 2.5 Strength 10/10 Date 21/12/2011 Bookmaker/Price Ladbrokes @ 2.20 Reasoning H2H look good for my bet, 07/08 Udinese lost 1:2 at home, 08/09 Udinese won 2:1 at home, 09/10 Udinese won 3:0 and in last season Juventus destroy Udine 4:0. Both teams are in TOP form, second place against third. Udinese scored 14 goals in 7 home matches, Udinese of course is very dangerous and is possible to scoring tonight. Last two matches on away for Juventus: 3:3 against Napoli and 1:1 against Roma(both teams missed many score chances). Over 2.5 with this odds look nice. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oneofthebest Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Re: Italy - Serie A - 20-21 December port Football (Italy) Event Novara - Palermo Selection Over 2.25 Strength 10/10 Date 21/12/2011 Bookmaker/Price Pinnacle Sports @ 1.98 Reasoning Over 2.25 for me with this odds look very tasty and I must put money on that. Palermo before this match have new coach and always new coach is new quality and new motivation for the players. Palermo not score a single goal on away in this year, but for sure score today against poor Novara defense. Novara for sure feel chances for three points in this game and want play open football, two key defenders of Novara are out for this match. I can image 3 goals here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ultravires Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Re: Italy - Serie A - 20-21 December I'm having two more lighter bets tonight. The first is unders in Inter-Lecce. Contrary to my initial thoughts I now think there is value in unders for this one. Inter have been quite laboured in an attacking sense for a while now. Simply put, their problem is providing their strikers. Pazzini and Milito need to be served. Those two have had issues finding goalscoring form this season. Inter have improved their defensive issues to some degree though. Lucio and Samuel are strong. Nagatomo is a bit suspect but on the whole they are better than a couple of months ago. Inter are expected to maintain their boring midfield of Zanetti-Cambiasso-Motta. Coutinho is expected to join them on the left side but he may well drift inside. He will be the creative source in there and has been improving of late. I am kind of relying on how Lecce are expected to line-up in this match. They are mooted to play a 3-5-2 which I like the sound of. They can try to bog down the midfield and get a grip. Cuadrado and Brivio can push back to a make a 5-3-2 when on the back foot. In theory 3 CB's should be fine because Pazzini and Milito are not incredibly mobile so they wont pull defenders out position as much as others could. Having said the ability of those CB's is a potential issue so they will need protection. No doubt they will have their moments in the 90 minutes. Personally I'd like to see both Obodo and Strasser play in CM but it looks as though Olivera may get the nod ahead of the latter. I like both Di Michele and Muriel as players. Both are competent technically and will be a potential threat on the counter. Even so, I kind of expect them to have a hard night's work ahead of them. All in all I think Lecce can 'contain' Inter to a degree and if they line up like stated I'd like their chances of keeping the score down. Inter haven't ran through an opponent in quite some time and although initially Lecce looks like one that they could stomp - I don't think they will. I'd be impressed by Cosmi if he flex's his tactical awareness and lines up like that. I'm taking some extra cover though because I am never fully comfortable in the goal markets. Under 3 goals - 1.950 - 3 points - Bet365 There is no need to write anything further about Udinese-Juve as it has been covered superbly by other posters. I can't see Juve coming away with 3 points to be honest. Udinese are an imperious team at home and could be the perfect foil for Juve's key players (CM's). So I'll follow on the home win: Udinese win - 3.25 - 2 points - Bet365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ultravires Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Re: Italy - Serie A - 20-21 December Wow. Ranieri has actually gone and started 4 CM's in the midfield. Poli-Cambiasso-Stankovic-Zanetti. You wouldn't think that they are about to play Lecce. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dylan Posted December 21, 2011 Author Share Posted December 21, 2011 Re: Italy - Serie A - 20-21 December Ah geez, all my draw no bets void. Just my luck at the moment. Crazy night in Serie A though, good for anyone backing goals or big wins. Unfortunatly that wasn't me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris-UK Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Re: Italy - Serie A - 20-21 December can anyone explain to me what the hell is going on with lazio? they drawed 0-0 with chievo tonight and im not saying chievo are crap but lazio...at home should be winning..i watched in-play stats and chievo were all over them at one point in the first half..i think lazio had 1 shot on target through the whole game and chievo had 6 or more on target... i just don't understand it to be honest:puke Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azzurini1976 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Re: Italy - Serie A - 20-21 December good midweek for me, with 4,5 wins 1 unlucky void and 1 loss. too bad for the break. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sadfrog Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Re: Italy - Serie A - 20-21 December I backed Fiorentina X and Milan 2 on two small bet accumulators. Thanks everyone for your posts :notworthy Keep it up! This is what I'm backing tomorrow : Napoli vs Genoa Goal at 2.1 @ Bwin.it and Over 2.5 @ Bwin.it Napoli has to win this match, after losing with Roma at home. Their results don't show really positive this season at home however, 3W3D3L with 14+11 goals on 9 matches, meaning an average of 2.78 goals per match. Genoa on the other side has 2W1D4L away, with 8+11 goals, meaning 2.1 goals per match. I am thinking 2-1 or 3-1 as a final result. Lazio vs Chievo [email protected] @ Bwin.it and probably -1 Home @ 2.4 at Bwin.it Lazio is on great form this season and currently on 4th place vs a Chievo of 14th place. Lazio home form is 3W3D2L and 10+7 goals on 8 matches at home, meaning 2.1 goals per match on average. Meanwhile Chievo is not so strong away. 1W1D5L with 5+14 on 7 matches, meaning 2.7 goals/match on average. Inter vs Lecce -1 Home win @1.75 @ Bwin.it Inter is on great form recently, having won 4 matches out of their last 5. Lecce is on the last place, but however they show strength and tend to score goals. On their last matches they have 4 lost and 1 won, but having scored at least one goal per match. I don't think however that they will score against Inter away, because Inter's defence is good, having conceded 6 goals at home and only 1 in last 5 matches. I expect a 2-0 for Inter. :hope Damn Lazio :wall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ultravires Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Re: Italy - Serie A - 20-21 December Catania +0.5 - 1.775 - 6 points - WIN Draw - 3.20 - 1 point - WIN Both Bet365 I didn't watch any of the later kick-offs tonight so can't fully comment on the results. It doesn't look like this win was entirely in like with my thoughts. Parma scored 3 goals, but at least they conceded 3 as well. Under 3 goals - 1.950 - 3 points - LOSS Apologies if I put anyone off overs in this match. It doesn't look like unders was really on once Lecce scored early. Udinese win - 3.25 - 2 points - LOSS Unfortunately those two later bets ruined decent profit from the Parma match. In the end I finished just shy of 2 points in the green. Calcio takes a christmas break now so we'll all have a little rest. Congrats Azzurini - a very nice two days work for you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mindfulness Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Re: Italy - Serie A - 20-21 December good midweek for me' date=' with 4,5 wins 1 unlucky void and 1 loss. too bad for the break.[/quote'] Yep good stuff Azzurini, Serie A is being covered really well by you guys at the momment. One thing I would ask is if there's any way I can check confirmed starting lineups before KO in Serie A or Serie B games? For English league games you can go on the bbc website and they have the lineups 30-15 minutes before KO which is really useful to us punters. You can get the lineups sometimes on flashscore for Italy but the game is well underway by then which is no good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ultravires Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Re: Italy - Serie A - 20-21 December The best one I use is: http://soccernet.espn.go.com/?cc=5739 You can use the bar toward the top of the screen to find the league and match that you want. This evening it was a bit crap though so I tried to use eurosport which turned out to be completely wrong. Usually, use that soccernet link about 30 minutes before the kick-off and it will have the confirmed XI's. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dylan Posted December 21, 2011 Author Share Posted December 21, 2011 Re: Italy - Serie A - 20-21 December I use.... http://www.gazzetta.it/tr_xml_sics/2011/HTML/riepilogo.html?id_c=2055&id_e=36882&id_p=261362 It is in Italian but is pretty straightforward to use anyway. If you book mark the link then you can select your match week and it brings up all the fixtures. Clicking on each one the opens a new screen which has match info inc team selections on. Like most it can be a bit slow at times but info is usually their between 30-15 mins before kick off. Also great work Azzurini, some cracking picks this week. :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mindfulness Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Re: Italy - Serie A - 20-21 December The best one I use is: http://soccernet.espn.go.com/?cc=5739 You can use the bar toward the top of the screen to find the league and match that you want. This evening it was a bit crap though so I tried to use eurosport which turned out to be completely wrong. Usually, use that soccernet link about 30 minutes before the kick-off and it will have the confirmed XI's. Cheers Ultra, that whole Giovinco business could have been very ugly tonight but thankfully turned out nice again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ultravires Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Re: Italy - Serie A - 20-21 December I know. I was pretty horrified to see him starting the match tonight. I read that he set up two of the three goals, so I guess it further enforces the fact that Parma depend on him. It's a bit unfortunate that Maxi Lopez didn't score in what will probably be his last match for Catania. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azzurini1976 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Re: Italy - Serie A - 20-21 December I use.... http://www.gazzetta.it/tr_xml_sics/2011/HTML/riepilogo.html?id_c=2055&id_e=36882&id_p=261362 It is in Italian but is pretty straightforward to use anyway. If you book mark the link then you can select your match week and it brings up all the fixtures. Clicking on each one the opens a new screen which has match info inc team selections on. Like most it can be a bit slow at times but info is usually their between 30-15 mins before kick off. Also great work Azzurini, some cracking picks this week. :clap I use the same one, sometimes also the webpages of the teams, but mostly gazzettas live platform. and thank you! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jr23 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Re: Italy - Serie A - 20-21 December Wow. Ranieri has actually gone and started 4 CM's in the midfield. Poli-Cambiasso-Stankovic-Zanetti. You wouldn't think that they are about to play Lecce. Lol, Ultra, what kind of sites are you checking for lineups? Poli was called, but not match listed, Stankovic has been injured long for some time now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_E_M_P_E_S Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Re: Italy - Serie A - 20-21 December For me Udine - Juve is clear X...maybe X2 for me....Udine withou draw and lost...hmmmm;) 0-0 FT :bignana Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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