Italy - Serie A - 20-21 December

[Dylan]

	Tuesday 20 December 2011	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
	Siena v Fiorentina (17:00 GMT)	2.58	3.2	3.1	102.27 %
	Cagliari v AC Milan (19:45 GMT)	8.2	4	1.57	100.83 %
	Wednesday 21 December 2011	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
	Udinese v Juventus (17:00 GMT)	2.98	3.25	2.66	101.92 %
	Atalanta v Cesena (19:45 GMT)	2	3.35	4.7	101.13 %
	Bologna v AS Roma (19:45 GMT)	3.5	3.35	2.32	101.53 %
	Internazionale v Lecce (19:45 GMT)	1.36	5.3	11.5	100.90 %
	Lazio v Chievo (19:45 GMT)	1.57	3.85	8.2	101.86 %
	Napoli v Genoa (19:45 GMT)	1.63	3.8	7	101.95 %
	Novara v Palermo (19:45 GMT)	2.6	3.2	3.25	100.48 %
	Parma v Catania (19:45 GMT)	2.1	3.4	4.2	100.84 %

[Dylan]

Re: Italy - Serie A - 20-21 December A full set of mid week fixtures see's all the match week 1 games eventually being played. There are a few things I like but will generally wait until squads are announced. I do however think its worth keeping an eye on; - Catania away against Parma. Catania will be buzzing after the excellent derby win, and Parma whilst doing well to draw level against Leece will face a much more organised test in Catania. They will probably still be without Giovinco and now two more key players in Palletta and Morrone are out with suspensions. - Goals certainly look a certainty in the Inter vs Leece match, given the fact that Leece have conceded 10 in 3 games, even Inter should be able to get a few. As well as being generally terrible at defending Leece picked up some key injuries and suspensions in the Parma game, with Carrozzieri banned and Julio Sergio and Andrea Esposito getting injured.

[ultravires]

Re: Italy - Serie A - 20-21 December They are two of the stand out bets of this round for me as well. If Parma are without Gio again then I'll certainly be on them on a handicap and a little outright too. Perhaps even if they do have him back to be honest. I can kind of see Napoli ripping Genoa a new one, but I'm a bit shook from taking them given their current price.

[Mindfulness]

Re: Italy - Serie A - 20-21 December I quite like the look of Napoli but I think the -0.75 line is probably best since their odds are poor. I didn't see the Napoli V Roma game, I take it Napoli weren't as bad as the scoreline suggested? My concern is they have been stuttering of late.

[ultravires]

Re: Italy - Serie A - 20-21 December They were sloppy defensively which was their main issue. They also wasted numerous good chances. Roma played their best game under LE (IMO) and 3-1 is certainly not entirely reflective of the match. Napoli are without Lavezzi for a month though. My backing of them would be mainly due to how I view Genoa. If they still have important players missing then I'd fancy Napoli. However at those odds I doubt I'll go in.

[Mindfulness]

Re: Italy - Serie A - 20-21 December

They were sloppy defensively which was their main issue. They also wasted numerous good chances. Roma played their best game under LE (IMO) and 3-1 is certainly not entirely reflective of the match. Napoli are without Lavezzi for a month though. My backing of them would be mainly due to how I view Genoa. If they still have important players missing then I'd fancy Napoli. However at those odds I doubt I'll go in.

Didn't realise Lavezzi was out, odds looking lame now.

[McNasara]

Re: Italy - Serie A - 20-21 December Bortolo Mutti has been installed as the new coach of Palermo, with the 57-year-old Italian succeeding Devis Mangia, who was fired in the wake of Sunday’s 2-0 defeat by Sicilian rivals Catania. Mutti, who will be officially presented to the media on Tuesday, will be the 21st man to take charge of Palermo since Maurizio Zamparini assumed control of the club in 2002.

[Dylan]

Re: Italy - Serie A - 20-21 December Its quite an interesting one that is. Despite the fact that Palermo hadn't scored away from home this season I was still leaning towards goals /overs in the Novara vs Palermo game, and the sacking of Mangia has only really strengthened those thoughts. Mangia went way too far in his attempts to tighten Palermo up on the road, stifling most of their enthusiasm and positivity that the Palermo team of last year had entertained us with. You can perhaps understand why he wanted to exercise a little caution, but as the players were so familiar and relatively good at that style of play he shouldn’t have steered too far away from it I feel . They had scored 12 away from home before the winter break last season. Anyway I know very little about the new boss, but a couple of things are for sure. The first being that the Palermo chairman Zamparini will be demanding a change in the style of play, and secondly that as with any new manager he will want to start of with a win. Despite the away record they still sit 10th in the table only a couple of points off the Europa League places, so I think Mutti might as well go for it as if they don’t pick up maximum points it won’t be the end of the world and he has a good few weeks to work with the players and what not. Admittedly Palermo do have a few striking issues with Pinilla suspended, and Hernandez and Zahavi injured but Miccoli and Ilicic will still be on the pitch and Novara don’t have a defence to be feared. They have conceded in every game this season, although there positive style of football has got them out of jail a few times this season. 2.25 for over 2.5 is a very interesting price.

[Dylan]

Re: Italy - Serie A - 20-21 December Also Ultravires I'll be grateful to know your thoughts on the Inter vs Leece game,as I think you may have followed the Leece match at Parma at the weekend. I saw the second half of the Inter game vs Cesena, and it was pretty much the same old from Inter. Solid enough attacking play, good runners up the flanks but it all fell apart when they got into Cesena's penalty area. They badly need someone to link the midfield and front line so if any of Sneijder, Forlan or even Zarate were to start I would be very confident of them scoring. Up the other end, the defence looked a little stronger than earlier in the season but Cesena were still able to put a lot of pressure on them down the left hand side (Nagatomo's side), unfortunatly for Cesena they only have one Mutu and his teammates managed to undo most of his good work. I think Leece have much more quality in attack and they should get chances. Overs is the obvious one, but that is best prices 1.8 and has definitely fallen over the last 24 hours or so.

[PAPOX7]

Re: Italy - Serie A - 20-21 December Parma - Catania 2 @4.00 stake 3 bet365 Quota per me fuori dal mondo quella del Catania, è vero la squadra siciliana non ha raccolto grandi risultati lontano dal Massimino con i soli 7 punti conquistati in questo campionato, ma l'assenza di Giovinco, che però partirà dalla panchina ma si sta allenando a parte, è troppo importante per Colomba. Domenica il Parma in casa contro il Lecce si è salvato negli ultimi minuti infatti era sotto 1-3 a 5' dalla fine, il Catania non è il Lecce e con un Floccari ancora senza gol su azione e Biabiany che è tutto tranne che un goleador per la squadra parmese diventa difficile trovare la strada della rete senza il suo n°10. Altre 2 assenze per me fondamentali per i padroni di casa sono Paletta e capitan Morrone che saranno sostituiti da Santacroce e da Jadid, non proprio la stessa cosa. Gli etnei si presentano al Tardini con il morale a 1000 per il derby stravinto contro i cugini del Palermo, squadra al completo a parte Suazo e Biagianti infortunati e Delvecchio, ma Montella ha gli uomini per sostituire gli assenti. Entro in stake basso visto la quota davvero alta, il Lecce domenica era @5.00 e tra i pugliesi e i rossoblu per me ci sono almeno 2 categorie di differenza. Parma - Catania [email protected] 3 stakes bet365 Quote for me out of this world one of Catania, Sicily is true the team has not received great results away from Massimino with only 7 points won in this league, but the absence of Giovinco, but will start from the bench but is training to hand, is too important to Mister Colomba. Parma on Sunday at home against Lecce is saved in the last minute it was 1-3 in the 5 'end by the Lecce and Catania is still without a goal from open play Floccari and Biabiany that is anything but a scorer parmese becomes difficult for the team to find the road network without his No. 10. 2 Other absences for me essential for the hosts are Paletta and Captain Morrone will be replaced by Santacroce and Jadid, not exactly the same thing. The Etna is present at the Tardini with the moral landslide victory in 1000 for the derby against Palermo's cousins​​, full team to the injured and Suazo Biagianti Delvecchio, but Montella has to replace the absent men. Within seen in low-stakes very high share, Lecce Sunday [email protected] and between Puglia and rossoblu for me there are at least 2 categories of difference.

[Profit_Finder]

Re: Italy - Serie A - 20-21 December What are your views on the 2 games tomorrow? Im leaning towards a draw @3.10 in the Siena Fiorentina game. Siena are not in good form at the moment Losing 4 games on the bounce. One of these was a 2-0 defeat at home to Bologna who are above Siena but below Fiorentina in the league table. Fiorentina on the other hand have lost their last 4 away games and have not won an away game since April. Therefore I think both teams will not want to lose and will be happy with a point. I also cannot look past Milan to beat Cagliari. Milan have bet Cagliari on the last 5 occasions 3 of which has had atleast 5 goals. Cagliari have not scored more than 1 goal since October the 2nd. AC have scored at least 2 in the last 6 in all competitions and I can see them doing it again therefore AC Milan @1.57 is the bet for me.

[PAPOX7]

Re: Italy - Serie A - 20-21 December

What are your views on the 2 games tomorrow? Im leaning towards a draw @3.10 in the Siena Fiorentina game. Siena are not in good form at the moment Losing 4 games on the bounce. One of these was a 2-0 defeat at home to Bologna who are above Siena but below Fiorentina in the league table. Fiorentina on the other hand have lost their last 4 away games and have not won an away game since April. Therefore I think both teams will not want to lose and will be happy with a point. I also cannot look past Milan to beat Cagliari. Milan have bet Cagliari on the last 5 occasions 3 of which has had atleast 5 goals. Cagliari have not scored more than 1 goal since October the 2nd. AC have scored at least 2 in the last 6 in all competitions and I can see them doing it again therefore AC Milan @1.57 is the bet for me.

Sorry for my english but i use the google traslate and I'm italian. For the derby Siena I would pass, triple by playing with Fiorentina strongest from a technical standpoint but Siena better organized by Mr. Sannino. 2 teams that do not fare very well, challenged by Fiorentina fans these days for the poor results and the change of coach does not seem to have produced improvements. Siena played very well but is struggling long after a great start. Match to be triple. Fold. Milan should have an easy time against Cagliari that is playing a bad football, should be part Cossu which is important for the midfield, but will still be off the Sardinian Captain Conti, Nene and Astori. Milan clearly that the favorite. If you need information on the Italian Serie A and Serie B have here. :Ok:Ok

[bozz]

Re: Italy - Serie A - 20-21 December Im leaning toward Bologna & Roma BTS :hope Bologna impressed my against Milan and looked good against Juve in Coppa. LE philosophy seems to be working for Roma 1:1 Juve (where totti missed a penalty) and 3:1 Napoli. Any thoughts ?

[azzurini1976]

Re: Italy - Serie A - 20-21 December Cagliari - AC Milan Nothing musch to add, Cagliari bad without Conti and Astori, against Chievo they were toothless, had chances only from set pieces, and I reckon against Milan defence, they will not have many chances to score. Ibarbo maybe theyir only high on this squad. Milan again with strong lineup, Nocerino there - he is mighty for them IMO. From imp. players out are only Nesta and Abate, all others easily replacable. With Ibra, we all know Milan has superstart striker. Really nothing much to add, as i see this one as a simple routine Milan victory. As I am greedy lately, i will play Milan on -1.25 hcp, which is paid 2.38 on sbobet. Milan -1.25 @ 2.38 sbobet Novara - Palermo This one must be taken. Palermo just changed coach (the old one lasted quite long to be honest), and in my book, Palermo squad, despite all missings are still much stronger that that of Novara, hence the odds are huge for them to win. Sure they are crap away, but they were all wins at home until Cesena came to town. I see this one much more closer than books suggest. Be aware that Palermo does miss out on Pinilla and Hernadez (both main attackers), first goalie Tzorvas is a doubt, as well as AMC Zahavi. Good news is that Novara has defenders Centurioni (banned) and Dellafiore (doubt) out. All in all, odds over 3.00 are huge and surely must be taken, but in this case i am content with 0ah options as it is payed really well. Palermo 0 @ 2.38 sbobet

[azzurini1976]

Re: Italy - Serie A - 20-21 December Inter - Lecce I wont get into new coach systems here, already wrote that Cosmi is a motivator, but overall a crazy coach. Inter on its way, tightened defence really good, most of injured players are back, their only problem is still that they dont have a poacher they had in Etoo last season. But in this game, Lecce (along with Cosmi) has enormous problems. Out are first two goalies Julio Sergio and Benassi, out is midfielder Obodo, Bertolacci, Mesbah and def, Tomovic. All in all i see a routine win for Inter with some 2 or three goals margin, Inter on home pitch, Lecce in def. trouble, squad quality...all points to easy home win. Inter -1.5 @ 2.01 sbobet

[ForgiveZlatan]

Re: Italy - Serie A - 20-21 December

SIENA - FIORENTINA

Difficult game for Fiorentina, who almost managed to loose the game against a better organized Atalanta. Siena is not getting results as well lately. As a matter of fact Siena has recorded 4 consecutive loses in the last four games while Fiorentina hasn't done much better..One win, one draw 2 loses. Has the change of coach restored serenity and game to Fiorentina? Many think that the answer is quite simple: no. Everyone looks to be available for both teams. Montolivo is back for Fiorentina, while Vargas & Cerci will contend a spot.

Probable lineups: SIENA

Brkic Vitiello Rossettini Terzi Del Grosso Mannini Gazzi D'agostino Brienza Destro Calaio' FIORENTINA

Boruc De Silvestri Gamberini Nastasic Pasqual Behrami Montolivo Lazzari Vargas Jovetic Gilardino

Considering Fiorentina's defense and Siena's defense, it appears to be that goals will not be a problem. Destro & Calaiò are a good couple that play very well together. D'Agostino, ex-Fiorentina, can become a big menace on penalty kicks together with Brienza and Mannini to push on the outer sectors. Obviously I believe that Fiorentina can win this game, but it would be extremely complicated to predict a game where the home team comes from 4 games lost in a row! Fiorentina is a much better team and Delio Rossi is looking for his first away victory since he is sitting on the Viola's bench. Can this be the right game?

BOTH TO SCORE @ 1.80 (totosì) stake 7/10 FIORENTINA TO WIN OR DRAW @ 1.48 (totosì) stake 9/10 FIORENTINA TO WIN first half/second half @ 4.70 (totosì) stake 4/10

[H_E_M_P_E_S]

Re: Italy - Serie A - 20-21 December I agree with Zlatan....today for me only Fiorentina .....H2H 6 W 3 D 3 L

[Filthy Logic]

Re: Italy - Serie A - 20-21 December Siena v Fiorentina - Both averaging 2 goals exactly in their games this season. - Siena score 1.57 at home per match - Fiorentina concede 1.29 per away match. - This is a derby, 3 of the last 4 going under 2.5 - Both have 2 wins in their last 6 games in all competitions. Therefore, the most likely result is a draw as far as Im concerned. Possibly a 1-1, i'll be going for a straight draw @ 3.10 Bet365 Cagliari v Milan A tad harder to predict, but based on the above criteria there is an average of 2.03 goals to be had in this game, so I'll be going under 2.5 @ 1.83 Pinnacle Sports. Good luck all!

[H_E_M_P_E_S]

Re: Italy - Serie A - 20-21 December Wauuuuu FIORENTINA dont win in away game this year....FULL STAKE ON FIOREEE First win for FIORENTINA

[azzurini1976]

Re: Italy - Serie A - 20-21 December Siena - Fiorentina Probably one of hardest games to predict this round. Siena bad, but they still are organized team who are lacking power upfornt to make some damage, they can score against lower teams, Calaia is not bad striker, but still they need quality on this leve. Fiore on other hand, one of negative surprises this season, they do have solid team, which today will also include Montolivo (but he is a question mark performance wize - contract expiring...), Santana, Gilardino, Jovetic, Behrami...all proven players at top level, but they just cant perform to their standards. i thought long about this game, and come to conclusion that Fiorentina have an edge of quality, but Siena are one hell of an organized and disciplined team. I read some posts above and i do must agree with what is written. I have this game as a 1-1 draw in my book, also my ratings show it will be tight game, where both teams surely wont surge forward, but wait for opponents mistake. dnb is an option, but du to good odds for a draw, i will back it in this occasion. draw @ 3.1 b365

[ultravires]

Re: Italy - Serie A - 20-21 December @ Dylan Off the bat I did think of goals in the Inter-Lecce match. In terms of how they played against Parma, Lecce did try and get on the ball and play. Parma were very organised in the first half and Lecce struggled to break down their two banks of 4. There was some terrible defending to give the penalty away though. They persisted in the second half and broke through 3 times quite quickly. They then managed to throw it all away in the last few minutes. My lasting impression of their match was that they had a definite plan to try and outplay Parma. It was quite an adventurous plan that almost worked. They seemed weak in CM though. Oliveira was useless and too slow. Strasser tried his best to hold it down in there but they did lack some cohesion. If put on the back foot I've no doubt they would struggle as a team defensively. I think with the right game plan they have potential for a counter-attack strategy. I'm not too sure how well they will fair against Inter. Inter are way stronger defensively when they have Samuel and Lucio together. Their woes up front are quite well known though and if this is to go over I feel Lecce will probably have to score themselves. I'm not overly confident of that happening though to be honest. Gazzetta predict a midfield of Zanetti-Cambiasso-Motta-Poli. I thought Motta was suspended but if they line up like that then this match isn't going over IMO. That midfield makes no sense IMO. Zero creativity in there. I'd perhaps look to take Lecce on a handicap or unders because if Inter line up as predicted currently then I can't see them giving Lecce a spanking. I'll probably leave this match alone though, they are just my thoughts.

[ultravires]

Re: Italy - Serie A - 20-21 December Parma vs. Catania Lost the price a little on this one over the last day. It still represents value to me though. This match has already had a bit said about it but I'll write a little more. First of all Giovinco is not going to start this match. He may make the bench, but that is also in doubt. Morrone and Paletta miss this through suspension. Both are first-team starters and they will be missed in CM and CB. Santacroce is expected to step in at CB and he hasn't had much game time this season. Having said that he does always look better at CB as opposed to RB. Valiani and Modesto are expected to hold the defensive wingers positions as Biabiani will drop off from Floccari up front. They played like punks at the weekend. Their main focus was organisation and it worked for the first-half. They went further into their shells after HT and Lecce broke them down eventually. Parma did show spirit to come back to 3-3, but they showcased little skill as a team (IMO). Given their cautious approach to football they struggled to create plenty of chances against a side (Lecce) that are not strong defensively. Catania beat their rivals Palermo 2-0. I didn't watch them match but when I have seen Catania so far, they have been decent. They have a good attacking trio in Gomez, Lopez and Barrientos. They also have a relatively decent midfield with Almiron and Lodi ticking things over without Biagianti. They have played pretty well away from home this season. They have only lost to Genoa and Milan, while obtaining draws away to Atalanta, Fiorentina and Lazio. They should be in good spirits after their derby win and they'll certainly look at this match as another chance to grab a win. I don't think Parma have what it takes to win this match. They are a limited side and have a cautious approach. Catania can happily sit and look to counter with their attacking talent. I think the value is more with the draw as opposed to the away win in this one. Catania +0.5 - 1.775 - 6 points Draw - 3.20 - 1 point Both Bet365

[Rollodent]

Re: Italy - Serie A - 20-21 December AC Milan -1.0 @ 2.23 stake 4/10 I don't think there is much to say about this match. Milan has better squad & better condition. Cagliari has not been producing good football lately, Milan also can improve their game but they have the men on the pitch to hit hard (...as the man from Arcore teaches us :cigar) . Last match before Christmas break, Milan @ -2 from Juve that tomorrow travels to Udine for a critical match. If Juve "slips", Milan will be closing 2011 as league leaders. Unless the unexpected happens, I see Milan winning by 2 goals difference, otherwise money back. If tragedy happens...well....congratulations to the Cagliaritani ! :D

[Dylan]

Re: Italy - Serie A - 20-21 December Well done to the draw backers in the Siena game, some good early profit for you guys in this round. Admittedly I'm a bit late with this one but having seen the line ups for the Milan game i'm going to take; Cagliari vs Milan - over 2.5 goals 2.05 at bet365 (2 units) Looks a bit more of an attacking approach from Cagliari tonight making Cossu play deeper and then three strikers up top. I think they see the potential weaknesses in this Milan defence, who still are having to play Bonera at RB and Taiwo at LB. Mexes and Silva is still a fresh partnership and they could also be got at. I also don't particularly rate Ambrosini any more in that holding position, if Van Bommel wasn't 34 I think Allegri would want him to play every game. As for Milan, they have gone with Robinho, Ibra and Boetang which is great for this bet as they are most in form players at the moment with Pato still struggling with his. They could have had 4 or 5 at the weekend and I expect similar confident and creative attacking play. Boateng and Nocerino could have a lot of joy if Cossu pushes too far up the pitch and exposes that central area. Cagliari are still missing Conti and Astori as well as Biondini through suspension. Astori is a key defender for them and all of those three are experienced steady influences and will be missed tonight. :hope

[Rollodent]

Re: Italy - Serie A - 20-21 December

AC Milan -1.0 @ 2.23 stake 4/10 I don't think there is much to say about this match. Milan has better squad & better condition. Cagliari has not been producing good football lately, Milan also can improve their game but they have the men on the pitch to hit hard (...as the man from Arcore teaches us :cigar) . Last match before Christmas break, Milan @ -2 from Juve that tomorrow travels to Udine for a critical match. If Juve "slips", Milan will be closing 2011 as league leaders. Unless the unexpected happens, I see Milan winning by 2 goals difference, otherwise money back. If tragedy happens...well....congratulations to the Cagliaritani ! :D

In the S. Elia swimming pool 0:2 for Milan.

[Profit_Finder]

Re: Italy - Serie A - 20-21 December

What are your views on the 2 games tomorrow? Im leaning towards a draw @3.10 in the Siena Fiorentina game. Siena are not in good form at the moment Losing 4 games on the bounce. One of these was a 2-0 defeat at home to Bologna who are above Siena but below Fiorentina in the league table. Fiorentina on the other hand have lost their last 4 away games and have not won an away game since April. Therefore I think both teams will not want to lose and will be happy with a point. I also cannot look past Milan to beat Cagliari. Milan have bet Cagliari on the last 5 occasions 3 of which has had atleast 5 goals. Cagliari have not scored more than 1 goal since October the 2nd. AC have scored at least 2 in the last 6 in all competitions and I can see them doing it again therefore AC Milan @1.57 is the bet for me.

Siena 0 Fiorentina 0 - Draw :clap Cagliari 0 AC Milan 2 - :clap 2/2 :loon:loon:loon

[sadfrog]

Re: Italy - Serie A - 20-21 December I backed Fiorentina X and Milan 2 on two small bet accumulators. Thanks everyone for your posts :notworthy Keep it up! This is what I'm backing tomorrow : Napoli vs Genoa Goal at 2.1 @ Bwin.it and Over 2.5 @ Bwin.it Napoli has to win this match, after losing with Roma at home. Their results don't show really positive this season at home however, 3W3D3L with 14+11 goals on 9 matches, meaning an average of 2.78 goals per match. Genoa on the other side has 2W1D4L away, with 8+11 goals, meaning 2.1 goals per match. I am thinking 2-1 or 3-1 as a final result. Lazio vs Chievo [email protected] @ Bwin.it and probably -1 Home @ 2.4 at Bwin.it Lazio is on great form this season and currently on 4th place vs a Chievo of 14th place. Lazio home form is 3W3D2L and 10+7 goals on 8 matches at home, meaning 2.1 goals per match on average. Meanwhile Chievo is not so strong away. 1W1D5L with 5+14 on 7 matches, meaning 2.7 goals/match on average. Inter vs Lecce -1 Home win @1.75 @ Bwin.it Inter is on great form recently, having won 4 matches out of their last 5. Lecce is on the last place, but however they show strength and tend to score goals. On their last matches they have 4 lost and 1 won, but having scored at least one goal per match. I don't think however that they will score against Inter away, because Inter's defence is good, having conceded 6 goals at home and only 1 in last 5 matches. I expect a 2-0 for Inter. :hope

[Dylan]

Re: Italy - Serie A - 20-21 December Not an ideal start, think I may leave goal line bets for a while. Milan seemed happy to sit back from the 4th minute. For tomorrow I’m on three different DNB, backing a couple of away teams in the process. Udinese vs Juve – Udinese DNB 2.15 at William Hills (2 Units) Udinese’s focus has been on this game for a while, highlighted by the fact that Di Natalie and Armero were both rested at the weekend in preparation for this one. It says it all about the determination of this team and their comfort with Guidolin and his style of play that even without those two they were able to get a point away at high flying Lazio. Everything that Guidolin has said over the last couple of days points to a determination to get the three points here and I think this team can respond to these demands. Performances for Juve on the other hand seemed to have stuttered recently and it looks to me that teams are finally getting used to their system, and its weaknesses and flaws. Napoli had them on the ropes at 3-1 before going to sleep and against a patchwork Roma side they couldn’t get the win when everyman and his dog thought that they would. They also toiled against Cesena, and lacked a few finishing touches against Novara at the weekend, where Novara themselves made Buffon work a few times. The loss of Vucinic has been slightly more important than I thought it would be and I think in general Pirlo, Pepe and Vidal seem to have got maybe too just over confident following their excellent starts to this campaign and have been more wasteful than usual recently. I don’t mean this as a huge critique of Juve, they are still an excellent side, but we know that Udinese will make it hard work for them and if they do make mistakes then Udinese’s speed of attack can easily make them pay. Indeed Guidolin’s tactics and player selection are certainly ideal to combat Juve’s threats. They will go 3 vs 3 in the middle of the park (with Abdi also available to track back and help out). Asamoah, Pinzi and Isla are all fighters and won’t let Juve have any easy possession, and when they do win it back it will basically become 3 vs 2 in there as Pirlo won’t have the speed to keep up with Udinese’s breaks. The other big dual will be Armero vs Lichtstiener. The later has been a key source of attack for Juve this season (maybe even their best player so far) but Armero is just as good and should be able to keep him on the back foot throughout the game. Whilst its worth noting that Benatia is out, the midfield generally shield the defence so well that whoever the replace is (probabaly Danillo) shouldn’t be left too exposed. Anyway my main point is that Udinese should be able to stifle Juve’s main creative threats. If they can do that then given Udinese’s home form so far (7 wins from 7) and the ability of a fresh Di Natalie to create something out of nothing them just maybe the home side can grab the win. Novara vs Palermo – Palermon DNB 2.30 at William Hills (2 units) I’ve already posted about this game earlier and my thoughts haven’t changed much. The new Palermo boss will straight way be looking to install more confidence in his side especially on the road and if he can get them in a positive frame of mind then there is no doubt that they have the quality to see off Novara here. I did consider the overs here but with so many attacking players missing for Palermo I couldn’t justify it. However the lack of strikers could actually work well for Palermo here, who may be forced to play 5 in midfield, with just one up front. This should shore up the team and ensure that they don’t get over run which is what Novara often look to do. I’m sure Novara will be on the front foot for periods in this game but if they can’t break through then they are liable to do something stupid instead, and hopefully Palermo have a positive enough outlook to take advantage. For Novara their defensive woes continue ( as they have really struggled to get a consistent back 4 together this season) as Dellafiore is injured and Centurioni suspended. Gazzetta also seem to be suggesting that Ludi is a doubt as well. Certainly a positive approach by Palermo could easily exploit these issues. Parma vs Catania – Catania DNB 2.75 at Paddy Power (1.5 units) Again much has already been said about this one, with the general consensus being that without Giovinco Parma will struggle to win any game. Well he is in the squad for this match, but is likely to only start on the bench, to be brought on if things aren’t going Parma’s way, but by then it could be too late. With Palletta and Varrane also missing this match through suspension, the Parma side does look weak. Catania are a decent team, buoyed no doubt by the win in the Sicillian derby at the weekend, and have an ok away record of 1-4-2. They two have a couple of key players missing in Spolli and Delvechio but their losses isn’t enough for me to ignore this bet. I think Maxi Lopez may well be the difference here. Parma’s defence is woeful at times, and given that this is likely to be his last game for the club (nothing confirmed yet, but he made sure he said goodbye to the fans in the last home game vs Palermo with plenty of waving and some tears) I’m sure Lopez will put in a stellar performance. :hope

[azzurini1976]

Re: Italy - Serie A - 20-21 December

Not an ideal start, think I may leave goal line bets for a while. Milan seemed happy to sit back from the 4th minute. For tomorrow I’m on three different DNB, backing a couple of away teams in the process. Udinese vs Juve – Udinese DNB 2.15 at William Hills (2 Units) Udinese’s focus has been on this game for a while, highlighted by the fact that Di Natalie and Armero were both rested at the weekend in preparation for this one. It says it all about the determination of this team and their comfort with Guidolin and his style of play that even without those two they were able to get a point away at high flying Lazio. Everything that Guidolin has said over the last couple of days points to a determination to get the three points here and I think this team can respond to these demands. Performances for Juve on the other hand seemed to have stuttered recently and it looks to me that teams are finally getting used to their system, and its weaknesses and flaws. Napoli had them on the ropes at 3-1 before going to sleep and against a patchwork Roma side they couldn’t get the win when everyman and his dog thought that they would. They also toiled against Cesena, and lacked a few finishing touches against Novara at the weekend, where Novara themselves made Buffon work a few times. The loss of Vucinic has been slightly more important than I thought it would be and I think in general Pirlo, Pepe and Vidal seem to have got maybe too just over confident following their excellent starts to this campaign and have been more wasteful than usual recently. I don’t mean this as a huge critique of Juve, they are still an excellent side, but we know that Udinese will make it hard work for them and if they do make mistakes then Udinese’s speed of attack can easily make them pay. Indeed Guidolin’s tactics and player selection are certainly ideal to combat Juve’s threats. They will go 3 vs 3 in the middle of the park (with Abdi also available to track back and help out). Asamoah, Pinzi and Isla are all fighters and won’t let Juve have any easy possession, and when they do win it back it will basically become 3 vs 2 in there as Pirlo won’t have the speed to keep up with Udinese’s breaks. The other big dual will be Armero vs Lichtstiener. The later has been a key source of attack for Juve this season (maybe even their best player so far) but Armero is just as good and should be able to keep him on the back foot throughout the game. Whilst its worth noting that Benatia is out, the midfield generally shield the defence so well that whoever the replace is (probabaly Danillo) shouldn’t be left too exposed. Anyway my main point is that Udinese should be able to stifle Juve’s main creative threats. If they can do that then given Udinese’s home form so far (7 wins from 7) and the ability of a fresh Di Natalie to create something out of nothing them just maybe the home side can grab the win. Novara vs Palermo – Palermon DNB 2.30 at William Hills (2 units) I’ve already posted about this game earlier and my thoughts haven’t changed much. The new Palermo boss will straight way be looking to install more confidence in his side especially on the road and if he can get them in a positive frame of mind then there is no doubt that they have the quality to see off Novara here. I did consider the overs here but with so many attacking players missing for Palermo I couldn’t justify it. However the lack of strikers could actually work well for Palermo here, who may be forced to play 5 in midfield, with just one up front. This should shore up the team and ensure that they don’t get over run which is what Novara often look to do. I’m sure Novara will be on the front foot for periods in this game but if they can’t break through then they are liable to do something stupid instead, and hopefully Palermo have a positive enough outlook to take advantage. For Novara their defensive woes continue ( as they have really struggled to get a consistent back 4 together this season) as Dellafiore is injured and Centurioni suspended. Gazzetta also seem to be suggesting that Ludi is a doubt as well. Certainly a positive approach by Palermo could easily exploit these issues. Parma vs Catania – Catania DNB 2.75 at Paddy Power (1.5 units) Again much has already been said about this one, with the general consensus being that without Giovinco Parma will struggle to win any game. Well he is in the squad for this match, but is likely to only start on the bench, to be brought on if things aren’t going Parma’s way, but by then it could be too late. With Palletta and Varrane also missing this match through suspension, the Parma side does look weak. Catania are a decent team, buoyed no doubt by the win in the Sicillian derby at the weekend, and have an ok away record of 1-4-2. They two have a couple of key players missing in Spolli and Delvechio but their losses isn’t enough for me to ignore this bet. I think Maxi Lopez may well be the difference here. Parma’s defence is woeful at times, and given that this is likely to be his last game for the club (nothing confirmed yet, but he made sure he said goodbye to the fans in the last home game vs Palermo with plenty of waving and some tears) I’m sure Lopez will put in a stellar performance. :hope

I will add my bets later on, but just have to say, excellent writeups mate!

[azzurini1976]

Re: Italy - Serie A - 20-21 December Napoli - Genoa Its a situational game, as we who follow Serie A, know that at some point it is wize to bet on team, despite that team not being top at the moment. All in all, Napoli lost big game against Roma, despite playing better and having chances, but they were extremely unlucky in that one, got two weird goals and despite dominating, Stekelenburg was a rock at back. Pressure on Malesani is shaken off a bit now, with important wins over Bologna and Siena. Now he can play relaxed game and not pressure players that are not in top condidtion And yes for this game malesani (Genoa) misses quite few very important players. Palacio, Moretti, Kucka - from the list very imp. Also Bovo and Antonelli, both defenders are out. Add to that Veloso (very. imp.) and Ze Eduardo (replacabel) are both high doubt in this game and should start on the bench. Napoli do miss out on Lavezzi (very imp.), but Gargano seems to be okay and fit for this game. So to reasons, quite many they are. Situation - motivation clearly on Napoli side, after loss, a win is a must, Genoa more relaxed. Injury problems a plus for Napoli, Quality of the team, surely on side of Napoli, home pitch - Genoa known for their inability in away games - that did improve this season though. Overall, Napoli will win this one IMO, and i am taking them on hcp. Napoli -1 @ 2.05 sbobet