Germany - Bundesliga II - 16-19 December

[H_E_M_P_E_S]

Re: Germany - Bundesliga II - 16-19 December I bet on Hansa today...they have a new coach and I think finaly they will win

[Benny1887]

Re: Germany - Bundesliga II - 16-19 December Germany Bundesliga 2 - 18.12.2011: Energie Cottbus - MSV Duisburg http://www.oddsportal.com/soccer/germany/2-bundesliga-2011-2012/energie-cottbus-duisburg-806360/#ah;2 Energie Cottbus (+0) Odds: 1.84 (PinnacleSports) Stake: 4/10 Odds have been fair yesterday but now odds raised too much on the home team, hence we are taking these odds. Cottbus have some serious problems at the moment, for instance the leaving of manager Pele Wollitz last week and the derby defeat against Dresden 7 days ago as well as a few important absences. In terms of team strength, they are still not significant weaker than the guests. Duisburg's only advantage is that they do not struggle with absences and they have the better form in general. Nevertheless mainly due to two facts I take Cottbus here. First of all, weather will be pretty poor according to forecasts and this is an advantage for the home side. Duisburg is a team with a decent technical ability but their players are fair-weather footballers with several arrogant players like Jürgen Gjasula for instance who simply do not like such games. They prefer perfect conditions and are not good in fighting at all. Next important reason why the line here can not be the level line is that Duisburg would be completely satisfied with a draw. A draw in Cottbus would be really good and motivation will not be the best at all anyway. A very long journey, cold temperatures, bad weather and playing in a small stadium. How I already mentioned this is a matter of character too and in fact, Duisburg is a team with a very bad mentality. And the whole team of Duisburg is not strong enough to justify having a level ball in Cottbus where much better teams like Paderborn had +0.25 lines. And Duisburg would be really happy with a draw whereas Cottbus needs the victory. And in terms of team strength, Duisburg are better but only slightly. Hence -0.25/+0.25 was the correct line and this is now a value bet.

[Benny1887]

Re: Germany - Bundesliga II - 16-19 December Germany Bundesliga 2 - 19.12.2011: Hansa Rostock - Dynamo Dresden http://www.oddsportal.com/soccer/germany/2-bundesliga-2011-2012/hansa-rostock-dresden-806365/#ah;2 Dynamo Dresden (+0.25) Odds: 1.88 (SBOBet) Stake: 5/10 Not a lot to say here, hence I am going to keep myself quite short here. This game will take place without any fans due to riots of Rostock in their derby match against St Pauli several weeks ago. Only the teams, journalists and security staff will be in the stadium. Even if this would have been a normal home match, I think that odds would have been a bit to high because Rostock are too poor to be favourites against any team of the league. But due the fact that this is actually a game on neutral ground and Rostock will not have any home advantage, these odds on Dresden are a massive gift. Dresden is superior in every aspect. Better team quality, especially in the offensive, much better form and no mentionable injury worries except a few long term absences in marked contrast to Rostock who have to relinquish several vital players. Best striker Mohamed Lartey who is their only good offensive player will still be no option as well as their suspended player Kevin Pannewitz who is actually one of their best players. Moreover Björn Ziegenbein, one of the few ray of hopes for Rostock in the offensive and a big fighter who would be essential for them in such a game, will certainly be out. Regulars Peter Schyrba, Michael Blum and Matthias Holst are serious doubts prior to this match as well. Hence the quality of Rostock will be still lower as it is anyway. Rostock's offensive is really a pathetic one, difficult to see them scoring today. Their defence is solid but the technical ability of the team is the worst one of the league for miles. They are unable to create goal chances and they lack a good converter. And a good offensive would have been really helpful since it is a matter of common knowledge that Dresden's defence has problems when being under big pressure but they will have an easy job to do against Rostock's joke offensive. Dresden has huge quality in the offensive with brilliant striker Mikael Poté leading the way. Defences of both teams are roughly equal but Dresden's team has the much, much better technical ability. And how I already mentioned, the form of both teams is completely different, too. Rostock have a very big crisis and will certainly relegate this season and they only got one victory in this season so far which is shocking poor. Dresden have a good form, they got a very strong and deserved victory against Cottbus last week and generally they are the better team in really every aspect. Dresden is a team which recently improved a lot in away games anyway because their strategy which is based on fast breaks lately worked quite well. Hence, not any single reason why Rostock should be favourite here keeping in mind that the stadium will be completely empty and no home crowd will push them. Actually it would even worth a still bigger bet on Dresden but the fact that this will be a "ghost game" is a bit unpredictable and I can not surely say which team will feel more comfortable in this empty stadium. Nevertheless this pick on Dresden is a no-brainer because Rostock can not in a thousand years be favourites in this situation against in-form Dynamo.

[Benny1887]

Re: Germany - Bundesliga II - 16-19 December FT 1:1 +/- 0.00 u Cottbus should have won this because they played 11 vs. 10 and were 1:0 in front. But Duisburg were not bad but equalised through a corner. Roughly fair result. & FT 2:2 + 2.28 u Last minute equaliser for Dynamo but all in all more than deserved because they have been the clearly better team throughout the whole match. __ Still I keep on my good run with having only 1 pick lost of the last 18 ones. :ok

[Batig0l]

Re: Germany - Bundesliga II - 16-19 December Great stuff again Benny. I went with a lay of Duisburg. I also went with a lay of Rostock after Rostock took their early lead - so I got great value on that. Thanks once again Benny. If you don't provide a tip tomorrow, I wish you a very merry Christmas. You have been brilliant and generous with your tips and I am very thankful for your efforts. See you in the New Year! :clap:nana:notworthy

[maliniok]

Re: Germany - Bundesliga II - 16-19 December Similar here. I took Energie exactly like Benny and got the money back. When I went to Hansa-Dynamo game Hansa were already 1-0 so I decided to trust Benny with at least a draw and got Dynamo to score the next goal at 2.0. Thanks Benny, shame Bundesliga 2 is breaking up for winter!

[sportxtipster]

Re: Germany - Bundesliga II - 16-19 December St Pauli vs Eintracht 3 points from this one would mean the number 1 spot for Eintracht in the winter break and a 3 point gap between them and 2 spot in that moment, Greuther Furth. The battle is so tight, as if St Pauli wins, 5 teams will be battling for 3 spots with a gap of 3 points between them. Eintracht is having better results in last years against St Pauli having 3 wins and 2 draws in last 5 games. The Hamburg team has been embarassing in last round, losing to Ingolstadt. Eintracht is very tough away from home with 6 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, so St Pauli will have a very difficult game. Idrissou is comming into the squad tonight so Eintracht will be very dangerous. St Pauli still without: without the likes of Moritz Volz, Carlos Zambrano, Petar Filipovic, Carsten Rothenbach and Lasse Sobiech. My bet is an away win tonight, but here the covering is a must! away 0 AH @ 2.05 with Canbet

[Beijing Daily]

Re: Germany - Bundesliga II - 16-19 December

...3 point gap between them and 2 spot in that moment' date=' Greuther Furth...[/quote'] I think you got that wrong, if Frankfurt win: Frankfurt 42p Dusseldorf 42p Furth 40p Anyway, I will go for the draw based on how Frankfurt and St Pauli played against the other Top 5 teams, @ 3.54 Pinnacle. Results: Sorry, forgot one game: Furth-Eintracht 2:3

[KavkaZ]

Re: Germany - Bundesliga II - 16-19 December St. Pauli vs Eintracht Frankfurt / Bet365 Late Goal: After 74:59 minutes @ 1.83 3/10 A late goal, after the minute 74 and 59 seconds to be scored. Number one and two meet tonight according to the stats: goals scored and received in the interval mentioned. St Pauli: Goals For 11 - Goals Against 7 Eintracht Frankfurt: GF 15 - GA 3...............stats for [76 minute to 90 - end of time], I am offered an extra minute here (74:59 to 75:59) :lol The joy in my heart no words can reveal Sincerely yours, Abdelmalik Safin - Russian Football Expert tipping on the World's Best Betting Forum, The Punters Lounge Kav "keeps an eye on the stats" - personal thread for the statistical picks on the PL Forum Russian Football 2011/12 Thread on the PL Forum

[look_and_win]

Re: Germany - Bundesliga II - 16-19 December

Pick for 16th December' date= 18:00 http://lookandwin.blogabet.com/ Fortuna Dusseldorf vs. SC Paderborn Pick: Dusseldorf Odds: 1.63 Bookmaker: pinnacle (SBO 1.65) Stake: 6/10 Fortuna played an amazing year of 2011. This season Dusseldorf has 12-6-0 and at home 8-0-0. Last match day Dusseldorf drew in Bochum with 1-1, but Dusseldorf’s strength is of course their great home advantage. Their defensive is the best in Bundesliga II, especially central defenders Langeneke and Lukimya are caliber for first Bundesliga by now. In offensive everyone can score, Rösler has much experience, Beister is very dangerous right winger. Dusseldorf will play in cup against Dortmund next week, nevertheless they will concentrate on Paderborn for 100%. SC Paderborn played fantastic season so far, also. Paderborn has 10-6-2 and 5-3-1 on the road. But Paderborn mostly won their matches only because of their great defensive and incapacity of opponents. They haven’t got quality in gameplay, but they play nice counter attacks and have strong standard situations. Last match day Paderborn won with 2-0 at home to Rostock. Paderborn has right defender Wissing and midfielder Brandy out. Dusseldorf is by far the better team and at the end they should win this. I play only normal win, because of great SCP-defensive. Odds over 1.50 are too high here, besides Dresden (1-2) no team had any chance in Dusseldorf so far, Paderborn only has average quality at all.

2-3 = -6:eyes

[escou]

Re: Germany - Bundesliga II - 16-19 December

2-3 = -6:eyes

They burried me aswell, but I guess it was very much expected. Regarding tonights game I will wait if Benny posts, but if the weather is rainy there probably wont be alot of goals, many fouls = cards, maybe even players sent off, when there are players who are sent of we know that games can go either way, especially if it is earlier in the game. I dont bet cards, but cards are my guess, maybe a penalty? But I think that in Germany they play harder and do not give out penalties just like that, so maybe cards is the only option for tha game, since it will be tight believe me :). Alot of teams seem to like to involve in a winning battle in this league lately.

[Benny1887]

Re: Germany - Bundesliga II - 16-19 December Germany Bundesliga 2 - 19.12.2011: St. Pauli - Eintracht Frankfurt http://www.oddsportal.com/soccer/germany/2-bundesliga-2011-2012/st-pauli-eintracht-frankfurt-806357/#ah;2 St. Pauli (+0) Odds: 2.06 (PinnacleSports) Stake: 6/10 The market still overrates Frankfurt and hence we have the great opportunity to get some value odds in this match. Frankfurt is nothing special but the market thinks that they are something special because they have several famous players. A team like Düsseldorf who are better than Frankfurt, got a +0.5 in St Pauli and Frankfurt gets a level ball. This makes no sense at all and also we should take into consideration that Frankfurt recently showed a really poor development. Their defence does not show any improvement, best striker Mo Idrissou is out of form because he still struggles with an injury and their other great striker Jimmy Hoffer did not travel to Hamburg because of a flu. Still team quality of Frankfurt is slightly bigger than Pauli's one but not enough to negate the big home advantage of Pauli. Pauli is actually not the best home team at all because they do not like to play against weak teams who defend very deep. But against Frankfurt, they will meet an offensive minded team and Pauli will be able to show their counter play which is their biggest strength in their own stadium. These are perfect circumstances! Pauli suprisingly lost 1:0 in Ingolstadt due to a terrible performance. But Pauli is the team with the best team spirit of the league and they are one of these teams who always recover from defeats. Last week they were arrogant and they thought that 70% or 80% would be enough to achieve a victory against a poor side but Ingolstadt punished them. They will take lessons from it and be extra motivated tonight. It was a similar situation when they played terrible at home and suprisingly lost 2:3 to Aue in September. One week later, they showed a terrific display and won 4:1 in Cottbus. They also do not have any injury worries in marked contrast to Frankfurt which should be another advantage. Hence a perfect situation for Pauli: huge motivation, an offensive minded opponent who will allow them space to counter attack, flood light and a home match in their great atmosphere. Frankfurt lately showed a very bad development how I already wrote in my preview of last week where they got a lucky 0:0 at home against Furth. I do not remember when they showed their last really convincing performance. I think it was in October. They play bad and arrogant every week and their defence is a really bad one. They have famous players but the team spirit is not good at all and the whole team does not work well together. The defence allowed several great opportunities against Furth because Furth is along with Pauli the best counter team of the league. Furth were stupid and they missed their chances but Pauli should be more clinical tonight. Pauli has the strongest wings of the league, they are full strength and the defence of Frankfurt is very error-prone at the moment. Especially Frankfurt's weak wing defenders will allow Pauli's superb wingers several good chances. Atmosphere in "Millerntorstadion" will be magic, Pauli plays much better than Frankfurt at the moment and hence the level ball is completely wrong here. Frankfurt has a big name, yes, but they do not act like a big team since several weeks. To sum up, we have two roughly equally strong teams but Pauli has the much better form and plays at home. Hence level ball is simply not correct here.

[Benny1887]

Re: Germany - Bundesliga II - 16-19 December FT 2:0 + 5.94 u Game went in how I wrote: Frankfurt was as bad and arrogant as always during the past few weeks whereas Pauli played with huge passion. Also Frankfurt had problems to defend against Pauli's fast breaks what I wrote in the preview, too. +0 was really a gift here ...

[maliniok]

Re: Germany - Bundesliga II - 16-19 December Benny! Yet again, absolutely great stuff. You're a gem for us and the nightmare for bookies! Thanks a lot and have a great Christmas. Can't wait till February already! :)

[Profit_Finder]

Re: Germany - Bundesliga II - 16-19 December Benny well done again you really are doing well!!! However I cannot agree with your opinion that St.Pauli were the better team. Frankfurt were the better team and did most of the attacking and Pauli caught them on the counter!! Nevertheless your Bet came in as always so Well done!!

[Bizjak]

Re: Germany - Bundesliga II - 16-19 December Way to go out with a bang Benny, thank you so much for everything. I hope you all have nice holidays and see you in 2012.

[Benny1887]

Re: Germany - Bundesliga II - 16-19 December @P_F: But how I wrote in my preview, I was sure that Pauli would not make the running. It was their strategy to defend deep and counter attack in their own stadium.

[Profit_Finder]

Re: Germany - Bundesliga II - 16-19 December Ha true just red it again there and you did say that. Well done Benny I'm sure you'll have a very good christmas with all the winnings you have made on this.

[Batig0l]

Re: Germany - Bundesliga II - 16-19 December I was convinced you'd go the other way and recommend Eintracht Frankfurt +0 But you did what nobody else was thinking on this thread anyway, and backed St. Pauli. I once again went +0.5 on your tip and laid Frankfurt heavily. Again I wasn't to be disappointed! A fantastic end to a great year and hopefully you keep the run going into the New Year! Thanks again!!