NFL Picks Week 14

[TazaD]

Re: NFL Picks Week 14

when you get a bad beat.

Like a blocked XP for example... :wall :puke :) Oh, not sure if I posted it the other day, but I'm on SL under 13.5 team total (1.87 @ SportsBet) today...solid D, banged up QB's... ...noticed under 14 (1.90 @ PP) now too. So, SS, you keep your funny feelings to yourself please mate! ;)

[Samba_SamPa]

Re: NFL Picks Week 14

Rams @ Seahawks: First offensive play - RUN @ 5/7 Bet365 This looks a good price to me for this. With both Bradford and Feeley carrying injuries for the Rams, and with Marshawn Lynch in top form for the Seahawks I'd say there must be about a 75% chance (1/3) chance of this bet coming in.

Handed straight to Marshawn Lynch for a run :nana Who cares what the score is now :loon :lol

[jpffc]

Re: NFL Picks Week 14

Fair enough about the inflated lines, but the reason why i take them is because there is some value there, as some teams are either undervalued or overvalued. The GB game yesterday is a good example. The bookies know that GB can easy beat them but they kept the line low to keep punters guessing, so as to invite action on both sides. Going east in the cold conditions, and playing their 4th road games in 5 weeks are not normally considered important by your average punters, but it these little variables can have a big impact on the game. Any loss is tough to take, especially if it is a bad beat like the Ravens game yesterday, as not only have you beaten your bookie (up until that point), but also at a higher price. Losing to garbage TDs when a team did not even look like scoring is even harder to take.

But Blackcrow surely at odds of 2.75 and the bet is looking good you would cover your bets? If Baltimore is up by -20 the profit is big enough to invest a little on the Colts + 20 as insurance? So many of your bets are at the point you want but do unfortunatley lose. For example you have the Seahawks who are up by 17 now so you are winning. If that was me I would place some small stakes on the rams to score next so I get my stake returned or even make a small profit. I know we all bet differently but to invest a small bit of insurance wont really effect your main bet when you take higher spreads.

[blackcrow]

Re: NFL Picks Week 14 Seattle -16.5 @ 3.15 :D That worked out well ;) Record: 46-56(+12.42) ATT:

Yeah, like I said, this does work for you more than it doesn't, and I'm intrigued by the concept. I do think, though, that American football is different than, say, football...teams that are way ahead really do relax, bring in their second-teamers, go into a prevent defense, whatever. Whereas in football many teams ahead by 3-0 at HT finish up 3-0, in American football the backdoor cover with garbage TDs is far more common, even with the regular lines. I've had this happen to me countless times playing the under...:@

Alot of truth in what you say - it is those bad beats that sting, because you assume that teams will continue to play to the end, or they build up a big enough lead to allow for a garbage TD. With both games that featured the Colts last week, what was irritating was that they never looked like scoring all game. jpffc:

But Blackcrow surely at odds of 2.75 and the bet is looking good you would cover your bets? If Baltimore is up by -20 the profit is big enough to invest a little on the Colts + 20 as insurance? So many of your bets are at the point you want but do unfortunatley lose. For example you have the Seahawks who are up by 17 now so you are winning. If that was me I would place some small stakes on the rams to score next so I get my stake returned or even make a small profit. I know we all bet differently but to invest a small bit of insurance wont really effect your main bet when you take higher spreads.

The problem with hedging these bets, and i get what you are saying, is that i am unable to do so because of work. During the week, i put the bets on the morning before the game or the night before, so i don't get the opportunity to take time off during the day to do that. If you take last weekend as an example, the only bet that i am unhappy about losing was the Baltimore bet. For most of the game, NE and Houston struggled with their teams while Miami was never in it - that was a bad read on my part. NE ended up doing enough to win it (but did not cover the original line anyway), while Houston came back to eventually win it, even though for most of the game the Bengals you would say,(Houston were losing it even with the spread) were the better side. Good discussion :ok

[fleno_24]

Re: NFL Picks Week 14

Fleeno we don't need your attitude around here. Go to some American board and chest thump there all you want where records are all that matters.

I apologise if you misconstrued this as attitude. I'm not in the chest thumping game but I make quite a bit of money off my NFL picks and I'm always happy if some other people can make some profit from them too. I'm aware of the rules around here now so for Week 15 I'll throw up a few lines about why I'm picking what. Apologies to all.

[fleno_24]

Re: NFL Picks Week 14

Rams @ Seahawks: First offensive play - RUN @ 5/7 Bet365 This looks a good price to me for this. With both Bradford and Feeley carrying injuries for the Rams, and with Marshawn Lynch in top form for the Seahawks I'd say there must be about a 75% chance (1/3) chance of this bet coming in.

Very nice bet. Went with the over for Lynch on the Run but missed this piece of value. Good pick!!