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Mirage

Snooker: 2011 UK Championship Dec. 3-11

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Re: Snooker: 2011 UK Championship Dec. 3-11

Poor night again for me. I'm happy with 80% of the calls i am making this week when i look back on them but just not getting the performances i expect from both the favourites and underdogs :sad
Chin up mate. Hasn't been the easiest tournament but as long as you are happy with the picks you've made them long term you'll be fine :ok.

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Re: Snooker: 2011 UK Championship Dec. 3-11 What a horrible two days that's been. Good job I left for the Luton game halfway through the afternoon session on Tuesday else I might not have had a TV left :lol. Could've had all 3 bets on Tuesday and end up with none and then lose both outrights on Wednesday the day after the draw had opened right up. A shocking -15pts overall now. I'll take two in the first two QFs. Surely the luck will run out for the young two :eek. 5pts N.Robertson to beat D.Junhui 4/5 William Hill How is Ding Junhui still in this tournament? He needed a fluked final pink to beat Mark Davis and although he played better against Stevens the Welshman had him there for the taking but missed a black off it's spot in the decider :wall. At some point you would think Ding will play well but it must be said he hasn't played all that well all season. Credit must go to him for hanging in his matches but eventually he's going to come up against someone clinical and I think that's here. That's because Neil Robertson is playing some lovely snooker and he usually gets better when the tournament starts progressing. I've said in a couple of the other threads that Robertson has played some of his best ever snooker this season and I think that's the case even now and he's played well this week. You don't beat Tom Ford and Graeme Dott for the loss of four frames if you are not. He may not have the century breaks to his name but he has plenty of substantial contributions and the way he controlled himself under pressure in what was the final frame against Dott and that clearance said to me Robertson will be tough to stop this week. I don't see Ding doing it so even at 4/5 I think Robertson is a good bet here. 3pts S.Maguire to beat J.Trump 11/8 William Hill Judd Trump is another who I can't fathom out how he's still in this competition. He had literally given up against Dominic Dale in the first round and Ronnie O'Sullivan had a golden chance to send him packing in the second round. Of course it's not Judd's fault that nobody has put him away and it must be said the youngster found his wayward long potting when he needed it the most in both matches but he isn't going to keep getting away with playing so poorly and leaving his opponent with so many chances. In Stephen Maguire, Judd is playing the player of the week so far. Maguire has rattled in 3 tons, one of which being a 144 and he looks really good. In fact he looks like the kind of player that won this event a few years ago. Since then of course this event has caused him a few problems off the table but all that looks behind him and Maguire looks up for this. Beating Higgins will have given him so much confidence as well. Not only the way he played in going 5-1 up but the way he closed it out when the world champion was ripping the kitchen sink out ready to chuck at him at 5-4. When he clicks into the gear he's been in this week Stephen Maguire is a wonderful player and a world champion in waiting. If he's still in that gear I think he'll beat Judd here, especially if the China Open champion leaves him the number of chances he gifted Dale and Ronnie in the earlier rounds. At 11/8 I'll take Maguire to make the semis from this quarter final.

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Re: Snooker: 2011 UK Championship Dec. 3-11 I hope Ding does the business today although i am not too hopeful after seeing his last match. Going to leave that one alone and get involved with some of the others..... Thursday: Stephen Maguire vs Judd Trump 2/5pts S. Maguire to beat J. Trump - 11/8 with William Hill I am in full agreement with Kev here and i'm glad i have woke up with this price still available. I opposed Maguire in the last round and it was probably the selection i am most unhappy about over the last few days. He played well against Hendry and against Higgins he looked back to his best. He is probably playing the best of anyone so far and his constant big breaks including a few centuries backs that up. I have always been suspicious of his safety game but that has been ok so far this week so if he continues like that he will be in with a great chance here. I said after the O'Sullivan match that i would happily oppose Trump again and to see him this short adds extra weight to my arguement. I can kind of see why he is the favourite because he plays the type of game where it could all turn around with one good match, but he should really be out of this Championship. He relied on 3 flukes in one frame to turn around a match against Dale and then gave Ronnie enough chances to put him out. In that last match he never really looked like getting his nose in front - was always just hanging on in there when Ronnie went a frame up. He has been poor tactically and i think that could be found out in this match and send him packing for good. Thursday: Shaun Murphy vs Ricky Walden 2/5pts Over 9.5 frames - Evens with Skybet This should be a cracking match judging by how both have played so far. Ricky Walden carried on from where he finished against Stephen Lee when beating Mark Williams yesterday. He was striking the ball well and it looked as though his confidence had returned to make him the player we all know he can be. Williams didn't play well but Walden had him in all sorts of trouble at times and when in the balls looked good enough to go all the way this week. Shaun Murphy was fantastic against Martin Gould for the first half of the match before going to pieces when needing just one more frame to win. He took his foot off the gas for a couple of frames and then when he realised he was in real danger he made some stupid mistakes. However, i think that will help him coming into this game. He will know he has to be on it until the end and if he plays like he did before yesterdays mid-session interval he will be hard to stop. Murphy leads the head-to-head 2-0 but Walden is a player who is up and down in confidence from tournament to tournament, so seeing him play well this week makes me think he will trouble Murphy. Both of these have shown signs of their best this week and will come into this match confident of beating each other. I can't see either player running away with it so think it is worth a small investment to finish 6-4 or closer.

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Re: Snooker: 2011 UK Championship Dec. 3-11 I'm with you on maguire guys, trumps an out and out potter but fancy maguire to win the scrappy frames, he wasn't majestic in finishing Higgins off but should still take confidence from that victory.

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Re: Snooker: 2011 UK Championship Dec. 3-11 I think none of ye appreciate how good Trump actually is! If your going to judge him on 1 poor performance at the start where he got lucky, thats called putting all your eggs in one basket.. I really fancied him today and it should pay off!

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Re: Snooker: 2011 UK Championship Dec. 3-11 Slight profit on the afternoon with Robertson winning. Felt a bit sorry for Maguire. Didn't play badly at all. Anyway two for tonight. 4pts R.Walden to beat S.Murphy 6/4 Ladbrokes Ricky Walden has played some lovely snooker this week and has taken care of two capable players in Stephen Lee and Mark Williams and taken care of them quite comfortably too. He's playing some good solid safety and when he's getting his chances he's scoring enough to win frames. When he's in the balls he's a really underrated scorer but he is clearly feeling really confident at the minute after making a competitive 147 last week and beating someone of Williams' standing in the game on Wednesday. Shaun Murphy has had a mixed tournament really. In his first four frames against Li Yan in the first round he couldn't play a proper shot if his life depended on it but he got it together for the second half of that match and carried that on for the first five frames against Martin Gould. To say he stumbled over the line would be an understatement because for five frames he looked completely gone and as though he couldn't pot a ball. In those two patches where we've seen Murphy playing well he's gone for his shots like he did in the old days and I always think he's a lot better when he does that but he does have this habit lately of erring on the side of keeping things safe than pushing the boat out. I think Walden is playing well enough to take advantage of that and if he gets ahead of Murphy I don't see him coming back. With the extra incentive of a wildcard into the Masters up for grabs should Walden win the event I think he'll give it his all here and at 6/4 he's big enough for me to take him to continue his fine run of form. 4pts M.Allen vs M.Fu - Over 9 Frames 11/10 Bet365 I think this quarter final will be pretty tight. Both men have made it to major semi finals and finals (in Fu's case) in the past but their form this season has been a bit sketchy so this is a big match for both men. When they look at their path to the final you would say it's arguably a bigger match too. That means there will be a lot of pressure and tension around in this match which may see it become scrappy and with that tight. Neither man has the reputation for blowing opponents away so this just has the look of a tight quarter final about it. Both men have scored consistently this week but can be guilty of not finishing frames in one visit so there could be a few frames which are nicked either way but however the match is played out and whoever comes out on top I believe we will have seen at least 10 frames.

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Re: Snooker: 2011 UK Championship Dec. 3-11 Well done Kev, 3/4 ain't bad :clap Walden deserved to win but that missed green in the 7th frame will haunt Murphy for a good while.

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Re: Snooker: 2011 UK Championship Dec. 3-11 Looking back at my records this is the worst run i think i have ever been on :unsure Will post up my thoughts for tomorrow's semi-final now as i won't have time to in the morning. So, lay, lay, lay! :lol Friday: Neil Robertson vs Judd Trump 3/5pts N. Robertson to beat J. Trump - 6/5 with Coral I have opposed Judd twice already this week and he has come through each time but i feel at the prices i have no choice but to do so again. Neil Robertson didn't play too great today but still came through to win 6-2. There were a couple of scrappy frames so a bit less big breaks than usual doesn't put me off as it was difficult to do so at times. Against Dott and Ford he impressed me a lot and the only difference from those two matches compared to the one against Ding was a dip in his safety play. He is looking good in the balls overall and will know he has to tighten up his safty play against someone like Trump. Trump looked very good today against Maguire, firing in some good long pots and showing better positional play. His safety still isn't the greatest but if he is having a good day with shots from distance he doesn't need it if his opponent is giving him chances. For this match he has a very tough task. He will have to scrape Robertson off the table in order to win as the Aussie won't give up too easily and has been around long enough to know how to come through these encounters. If Trump plays like he did today he will be hard to beat, but Robertson has shown more than enough this week to suggest he shouldn't be a 6/5 shot. He should be around Evens for me so i am more than happy to get stuck in with a decent stake - a stake that has been increased slightly because of the extra value available.

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Re: Snooker: 2011 UK Championship Dec. 3-11 Cheers Mirage. Needed that day. Back to -3.6pts now. Not going to call the first semi final just yet. Will watch the first session and then see if there's a chance to get involved then. I'll take two to begin with. 5pts N.Robertson vs J.Trump - Over 14.5 Frames 8/11 Skybet 4pts Over 10.5 50+ breaks 11/10 Paddy Power I think this could be a fantastic semi final because both men have started showing that their top form isn't too far away. I was impressed with Judd's break building against Stephen Maguire but his safety and at times his long potting left a bit to be desired. Neil Robertson gave the air of a very confident man after his win over Ding Junhui and why wouldn't he? He has an exceptional record in tournaments when he reaches this stage of them and he knows he's played good snooker all season not just this week. I suspect with the one table environment Judd will start to come into his own and the entertainer in him will really come out but when all is said and done there is a semi final to be won and I don't think either will win it easily. Both men are aggressive potters capable of winning frames in one visit so I expect to see plenty of half century breaks in this match and I would expect the biggest win to be 9-6 either way but it could be a whole lot closer. I don't see either winning 9-5 or worse so I'll take the overs in both the frames and the half centuries here.

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Re: Snooker: 2011 UK Championship Dec. 3-11

For anyone follow Kevshat the over 14.5 Frames bet is available at Victor for odds of 11/10 (2.1)
VC have pulled all odds for match... only Allen v Walden odds available now?? And Paddy are in to 10/11 on 50 breaks....

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Re: Snooker: 2011 UK Championship Dec. 3-11 The 10.5 50+ breaks at 11/10 does seem very very high, theres up to 17 frames being played and often there are 2 breaks of 50 in one frame. A frame between Trump and Robertson you'd expect at least one 50 break per match.

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Re: Snooker: 2011 UK Championship Dec. 3-11 Cracking opening semi final. Slightly annoying for me as although the frames came in comfortably there were only 10 50 breaks made all the more annoying with Robertson getting a horrible kick on 49 which was the difference between winning and losing. Small loss on that semi final so back to -3.95 overall now.

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Re: Snooker: 2011 UK Championship Dec. 3-11 2 for me in the second semi final. 4pts R.Walden to beat M.Allen 6/4 Ladbrokes 5pts Under 1.5 centuries 6/5 William Hill Ricky Walden continues to play some lovely snooker in this tournament and I think he's playing better than Mark Allen so far this week. Allen has got through by scrapping and really fighting hard whereas in the main Walden has cruised through and been in control throughout all of his matches save maybe for when he was 2-1 down to Murphy. His response to that situation was that of a man who is in control of both his game and his emotions and it's the emotion side of the game that can sometimes hinder Mark Allen who lays it all on the line and often allows his opponent to see how he's feeling. Ricky Walden keeps his hidden which I always prefer. This will be Mark Allen's 7th major semi final and as yet he hasn't won any of the previous 6 so he has a bit of a monkey to get rid of in this match. Ricky Walden has been to and won the Shanghai Masters final so he knows how to get past this stage. I think Walden is playing the better snooker this week and with a Masters wildcard a reward if he wins this week he has all the extra motivation needed to go on and win. Between them in their three matches this week the pair have made just two century breaks in winning 36 frames between them. Over a maximum of 17 here two more looks unlikely. Neither are what you would call prolific century makers which is a help and we saw in the first semi final this table isn't playing as easy as the players would like. That semi final with all the potting ability and talent on show produced just one century and I don't see this one producing two either. Walden to win a match with no more than one ton is how I see this going.

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Judd Trump is showing he's no flash in the pan' date=' what a talent![/quote'] I think anyone that follows snooker knows that by now, he had already proved himself to be one of the best players in the world before this tournament with his performances this season. Sent from my HTC Desire using PL Forum

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So its a Trump v Allen final and Judd will start favourite and proberly rightly so.Im pretty sure Allen has a very favourable record against Judd tho, he always seems to beat him and win quite well when they meet.After watching the whole of the first semi and the second session of the semi tonight I do feel the Allen semi was of better quality tho so the value could lie with him, but think I might just sleep on it for now. Sent from my HTC Desire using PL Forum

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Re: Snooker: 2011 UK Championship Dec. 3-11

So its a Trump v Allen final and Judd will start favourite and proberly rightly so.Im pretty sure Allen has a very favourable record against Judd tho, he always seems to beat him and win quite well when they meet.After watching the whole of the first semi and the second session of the semi tonight I do feel the Allen semi was of better quality tho so the value could lie with him, but think I might just sleep on it for now. Sent from my HTC Desire using PL Forum
Dont waste your money on Allen, he hasnt a hope of beating Trump on form! Night Night sleep well xxx

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