Snooker: 2011 UK Championship Dec. 3-11

[Mirage]

This event starts on Saturday and the draw for it was made a while ago..... John Higgins vs Rory McLeod Stephen Maguire vs Stephen Hendry Ronnie O'Sullivan vs Steve Davis Judd Trump vs Dominic Dale Ding Junhui vs Mark Davis Matthew Stevens vs Marcus Campbell Graeme Dott vs Matthew Selt Neil Robertson vs Tom Ford Mark Williams vs Joe Jogia Stephen Lee vs Ricky Walden Martin Gould vs Peter Lines Shaun Murphy vs Li Yan Ali Carter vs Robert Milkins Mark Allen vs Adrian Gunnell Stuart Bingham vs Marco Fu Mark Selby vs Ryan Day Fire away :ok

[Mirage]

Re: Snooker: 2011 UK Championship Dec. 3-11 Took a few for this tournament earlier today as i have a busy few days coming up. Here are my outright thoughts..... Outright Winner Taking just the 2 small-stake selections in this market as i think any of 8 or 9 are in with a good shout. 1/5pts Each-Way John Higgins to win UK Championship - 8/1 with BoyleSports (1/2 odds 1-2) As with most established tournaments on the circuit, John Higgins has a great record in this event. He has won it 3 times and been runner-up on another 2 occasions so certainly knows what it takes to come through and challenge. In PTC 10 he is currently going well so will come into his first round match in decent form and knowing where his game stands although, even if he wasn't at his best, he shouldn't have many problems getting past the grinder that is Rory McLeod. The Scotman is in the toughest half but he won't come up against anyone who he hasn't beaten previously. He also has a decent tie for the 2nd round so will be able to play himself into this nicely and whilst O'Sullivan is the obvious danger, we all know how up and down the Rocket can be so i think it is worth opposing him here. I think the 8/1 on offer is more than fair. 1/5pts Each-Way Ding Junhui to win UK Championship - 12/1 with BoyleSports (1/2 odds 1-2) I am going to take another one in the top half as i think Ding has a more than decent draw to take him deep into the competition. Ding was hammered by Ronnie in the Premier League final and that did make me think twice about taking this bet at first. He is in the same half as the Rocket and seems to have troubles against him mentally sometimes. However, there is nothing to say they will definitely meet and when in the zone he does have plenty of ability to see him through against anyone. Ding is another who loves this tournament (won it twice) and he will also love the fact that he has got a good looking first couple of rounds where he will play Mark Davis then either Stevens or Campbell. He is a scoring machne when at his best and if he was to meet Robertson in the quarter-finals i would, at this stage, definitely being on Ding's side. Personally, i think 10s is a fair price for him so i am happy to take the extra couple of points on offer and hope he does the business.

[Mirage]

Re: Snooker: 2011 UK Championship Dec. 3-11 Going to have a small dabble in another outright market too..... Quarter Betting 3/5pts Mark Williams to win 3rd Quarter - 13/8 with Coral I think this represents terrific value as i had it down as closer to 13/10-11/8. Mark Williams is, without doubt, in the easiest half of the draw and is rightly the favourite to come through his quarter. He has plenty of experience in every format of the game and has past form at these Championships with 2 titles and 2 runner-up spots. He should really have won in the final last year but John Higgins produced an inspired performance to come from well behind to take the trophy home. He has reached finals this year and in the semi-finals of this years Premier League was a bit helpless against an on-form O'Sullivan. He couldn't have chosen a kinder 1st round match and, although Lee and Walden are talented players, the class of Williams should see him through the 2nd round tie too. After that, he could be tested by Gould or Murphy but, again, i would not back against him coming through against either of those. If he rolls up here and plays well there is nothing to suggest he cannot get through to at least the semi-finals. When at his brillaint best he is head and shoulders against everyone else in his quarter so i am more than happy to get a bit of value on him to come out on top.

[Mirage]

Re: Snooker: 2011 UK Championship Dec. 3-11 Had a look over Saturdays matches and one stands out for me so will take it now. Unsure whether or not i will have anymore at the moment. Saturday: Stephen Maguire vs Stephen Hendry 2/5pts S. Hendry to beat S. Maguire - 6/4 with Coral I was thinking about taking the handicap but i think this price for the win is good enough value for me to take instead. I always look for value against Maguire when he is favourite as i think he is an overrated player when it comes to the bookmakers pricing up his matches. He comes into this off the back of a disappointing defeat to Rory McLeod in PTC 10 and it wouldn't surprise me if we saw a similar result here. So far this year he hasn't had the best of times, failing to record any stand out wins and although he is good when on top form and in the balls i don't think there is much middle ground when he knows he isn't playing his best. I don't rate his safety game much and if that is poor it could hurt him here. He has won this tournament before but having a match like this to start off with could catch him out if his game isn't ready for it. Stephen Hendry has been on a poor run over the last couple of years but he hasn't been too bad lately and should come here with a bit of hope of doing well. He won his qualifier well against Gerard Greene and had some good results in PTC 10 where he took John Higgins to a decider. A convincing win over Martin Gould these days is good form and, to be honest, i don't think at this stage Maguire is that big a step up from Gould. 6/4 is value for Hendry to me - a player who still has it in him to trouble some of the top 16. He can't be trusted with a larger stake because of his form over the past year or so but i have a feeling that this could be a close one. If Hendry gets his nose in front, Maguire will find it tough to come back.

[ThusPrider]

Re: Snooker: 2011 UK Championship Dec. 3-11 Lovely week of snooker ahead. As usual ill wait until at least the next round before I dive in! Being a mug i fancy Ronnie this year. His recent sucess in the Premier league should get him back on track again. Hes a great player if his mind is at it and treats this seriously. But when I says things like that he always ends up getting knocked 1 - 6 out of Steve Davies! :lol

[kevshat]

Re: Snooker: 2011 UK Championship Dec. 3-11 2 outrights for me this week. Taking them both with Paddy Power as they are refunding if Mark Selby or Ronnie O'Sullivan wins and I think O'Sullivan is a major danger. 1.5pts ew M.Selby to win UK Championship 7/1 Paddy Power (1/2 1,2) Mark Selby has been in decent form in 2011 and he highlighted that when he won only his second major ranking event title in the Shanghai Masters in September. I don't think too many will argue with me when I say Selby has underachieved in his career so far even though he's the world number one. He hasn't won nearly enough ranking tournaments for someone of his capabilities but as well as the Shanghai Masters win he's also won a PTC event this season so he arrives in York with confidence high and plenty of momentum behind him. He'll want to win one of the big two to silence his critics and while you never get a nice draw in the UK Championships he's got a fair one. He's away from the top half which has Higgins, O'Sullivan, Robertson and Trump in it and that's a good start. Over the longer matches he's always tough to beat as we've seen at The Masters so I think the world number one is well worth being the main outright this week. 0.5pts ew M.Gould to win UK Championships 50/1 Paddy Power (1/2 1,2) Martin Gould is a player who has really come to the party over the last 12-18 months or so. He's performed well at the World Championships and having seen the way he won the Power Snooker, albeit in a totally different game and format and atmosphere, we saw that he doesn't fear anybody. On his day Gould is capable of beating anyone and the longer matches means his aggressive style isn't under pressure from the off. He's not in the top half of the draw either which helps and while Mark Williams may have to be dismissed early doors Williams does have fitness issues coming in this week and hasn't had a lot of practice by all accounts. Martin Gould definitely has a tournament win in him and at 50/1 I'll pay to see if it is this week.

[kevshat]

Re: Snooker: 2011 UK Championship Dec. 3-11 First match bet for me. 4pts S.Bingham to beat M.Fu 8/11 Stan James I like what we've seen from Stuart Bingham this year and having won his first ranking event in Australia earlier in the year I really expect him to go from strength to strength in his career now and that begins with a win over Marco Fu here. Marco Fu has been so up and down this season it is untrue but he hasn't really ever looked convincing. We must remember that Fu produced a stunning clearance in the deciding frame against Anthony Hamilton to make it into this event but that was one of the few highlights of a relatively poor season for the man from Hong Kong. Stuart Bingham is class. He scores heavily and has enough nous in the tactical game and now he has the belief behind him he's a very dangerous animal. I think Fu could keep tabs with Bingham for a while but in the end I expect the Essex man to set up a potential last 16 clash with Mark Selby.

[kevshat]

Re: Snooker: 2011 UK Championship Dec. 3-11 Bingham got a bit of a rough draw there with Fu suddenly playing so well :(. 4pts R.Walden to beat S.Lee 5/4 Bet365 I was intrigued to see how the bookmakers would price this match up with both having pretty successful seasons in the PTC tournaments and I think Ricky Walden could just be a touch of value. Stephen Lee is now back in the top 16 but although he's put up spirited efforts on TV over the last 12-18 months or so in defeat to players like John Higgins and a couple of others of the big names we haven't really seen him play like he can so that is the next task for him, to play well again on TV. Ricky Walden often plays well when he's on the TV and he seems to up his game both in the big events and when he's playing the top players and having notched a 147 in the PTC last week we know he's coming here in good scoring form. He has a decent enough all round game that suggests when he's scoring like he is he'll be tough to beat and I think he will. This could be tight and it isn't a lot more than a 50/50 match but Walden if he gets in front early could run away with this and that is the deciding point in me taking him at a strong odds against price.

[ThusPrider]

Re: Snooker: 2011 UK Championship Dec. 3-11

Bingham got a bit of a rough draw there with Fu suddenly playing so well :(. 4pts R.Walden to beat S.Lee 5/4 Bet365 I was intrigued to see how the bookmakers would price this match up with both having pretty successful seasons in the PTC tournaments and I think Ricky Walden could just be a touch of value. Stephen Lee is now back in the top 16 but although he's put up spirited efforts on TV over the last 12-18 months or so in defeat to players like John Higgins and a couple of others of the big names we haven't really seen him play like he can so that is the next task for him, to play well again on TV. Ricky Walden often plays well when he's on the TV and he seems to up his game both in the big events and when he's playing the top players and having notched a 147 in the PTC last week we know he's coming here in good scoring form. He has a decent enough all round game that suggests when he's scoring like he is he'll be tough to beat and I think he will. This could be tight and it isn't a lot more than a 50/50 match but Walden if he gets in front early could run away with this and that is the deciding point in me taking him at a strong odds against price.

Agree. Ricky seems a very cocky and confident player the few times ive seen him play on TV in the past. He will enjoy this and relish the oppotunity to impress. His recent runner up at the PTC should be a platform to build on. 5/4 is good value. This can go either way and I feel Stephen is going the slight favourite with more experience at a top level. Walden 5/4 has enough value for a small punt. Trump vs O'sullivan tommorow is a nice clash, Looking ahead at the 12:30s I quite fancy: Ding 8/15 vs Matthew Stephens Trump 15/8 vs O'sullivan Ill have a good think tonight before tommorow morning. Dont really seen any upsets for the evening matches with Robertson and Higgins. Both very polished players but odds are abit tight on ther opponent atm with bookies taking a very big percentage.

[ThusPrider]

Re: Snooker: 2011 UK Championship Dec. 3-11 Walden won 6 - 3. What a game Joes giving Mark on the other table! Mark doesnt look on best form but Joe seems to have the crowd behind him. 4 - 4 and its going to be a mini best of 3!

[kevshat]

Re: Snooker: 2011 UK Championship Dec. 3-11 +1 for me overall now. 3 for me on Tuesday. 5pts R.O'Sullivan (-1.5 frames) to beat J.Trump 4/5 Boylesports Quite how Judd Trump is still in this tournament probably only he knows. At one point in his first round match he had given up and starting thumping the balls around without getting close to his intended shots. Luckily for him everything he missed ended up dropping in elsewhere and he finally got himself together to make his way into this last 16 match. I sensed coming into the tournament that Judd's busy schedule was showing signs of catching up with him and having seen that first round match I'm even more convinced of it. Ronnie O'Sullivan has moaned about the amount of tournaments he's playing or 'forced' to play but one thing it has done is rediscovered his long game and given how good he is among the balls if his long game is in good nick then the rest of the field could be in a spot of bother this week. I mentioned before the event when I took my outright bets that I consider O'Sullivan a real danger this week and given how sloppy Trump has been in recent matches as in his first round here, his semi final in the Premier League and his first round defeat in the PTC last week, I only see an O'Sullivan win here and I see it coming no worse than 6-4. 3pts M.Stevens to beat D.Junhui 7/4 Boylesports Ding Junhui is another player who hasn't impressed me recently. I didn't think he was much cop in his Premier League semi final against Judd Trump where fortunately for him Trump missed so many balls it was untrue and Ding wasn't much better in the final of that event. He lost early in the PTC last week and but for a fluked final pink in the first round of this event he might not even be here in this match. Matthew Stevens is showing no such concerns. He's been competitive in the PTC's and played well in the first round of this event. Generally I feel Stevens enjoys the longer match events more as we've seen earlier in his career when he reached a lot of World, UK and Masters finals and I expect him to continue to go this week. Ding can produce bursts of brilliance and perhaps the 5-0 head to head record he has against Stevens will allow him to rediscover some necessary belief and confidence but given that Ding hasn't played well for a while I think Stevens looks a good price here. 4pts G.Dott vs N.Robertson - Over 9.5 frames 11/10 Bet365 These two played out the world final a little over 18 months ago and while this is nowhere near as important both will still be eager to win. Both men are enjoying good seasons so far, particularly in the PTC events. Robertson has won two of them while Dott has been to a final and two semi finals in them and I really believe the amount of snooker these two are playing has allowed them to find and then show their best form in competitive action. When these two both play well together there isn't a huge amount between their games. I believe Graeme Dott is one of the most underrated players out there these days while I have also mentioned how I believe Neil Robertson has played the best snooker of his career at times this season. Both men are playing well so this should be a good close match. 6-4 or 6-5 either way is for me very much the likeliest end result so I'm happy to take the overs here.

[Mirage]

Re: Snooker: 2011 UK Championship Dec. 3-11 Just the one from me for today. In total agreement with Kev..... Tuesday: Ronnie O'Sullivan vs Judd Trump 2.5/5pts R. O'Sullivan (-1.5 frames) to beat J. Trump - 4/5 with Paddy Power I watched Trump play against Dale and he should have been sent packing. If it wasn't for 3 flukes in one frame he would have - surely he cannot rely on that luck again today. He looked out of sorts for a while and tactically looked inept most of the time. He isn't the only seed who has struggled so far this week but he didn't impress me in the Premier League the other week either so hasn't come here with any sort of form. Ronnie on the other hand is playing very very well. He looked good in the Power Snooker tournament as far as having his head screwed on is concerned whilst in the Premier League he looked on top form when securing the title. In the first round he carried on from that to demolish Davis so if he is just as keen to perform in this match, he should be given enough chances to come through a comfortable winner.

[Aidymac]

Re: Snooker: 2011 UK Championship Dec. 3-11 I watched Ronnie against Davis.. His safety was all over the place, his potting was not his usual self, and he didnt look overly interested.. Trump is an up and coming star in the making, and although was lucky enough recently, i think he will beat Ronnie in this round. Judd Trump WIN @ 15/8 Stanjames!

[sneej]

Re: Snooker: 2011 UK Championship Dec. 3-11 You clearly didn't watch Trump's match if you fancy him to win today....very very fortunate

[Berlington Bertie]

I'm all over Ronnie today, Judd was awful in his first game not helped by the fact he is playing with a new tip. Sent from my HTC Desire using PL Forum

[Aidymac]

Re: Snooker: 2011 UK Championship Dec. 3-11

You clearly didn't watch Trump's match if you fancy him to win today....very very fortunate

If you took the time to read my post properly, you would see that i did mention Trump was lucky recently in his last match! :eyes Today is a different match, and Ronnie will either turn up and wallop Trump or Trump will beat him, depends on Ronnie's mood and judging by Ronnie's last match, he didnt look very interested...

[Aidymac]

Re: Snooker: 2011 UK Championship Dec. 3-11 Ronnie is playing with a neck injury apparently! That could also affect him..

[kevshat]

Re: Snooker: 2011 UK Championship Dec. 3-11 You must have watched a different Ronnie to me in the first round. He looked like he was getting close to his best again for me. Was happy to mix it in the safety department for 4 frames then ran away in style in the last three. In contrast Judd had actually given up in his first round match. Literally. I think Ronnie will have to let Judd get close here because I don't think he's playing well enough to get anywhere near Ronnie on his own.

[ThusPrider]

Re: Snooker: 2011 UK Championship Dec. 3-11 Well well well, final frame decider! Come on Judd!

[Mirage]

Re: Snooker: 2011 UK Championship Dec. 3-11 Ronnie should have done it for us there, no doubt about it. If it is Trump - Higgins next i won't have any problems opposing the youngster again.

[Aidymac]

Re: Snooker: 2011 UK Championship Dec. 3-11 :bignana

[Aidymac]

Re: Snooker: 2011 UK Championship Dec. 3-11

Ronnie should have done it for us there' date=' no doubt about it. If it is Trump - Higgins next i won't have any problems opposing the youngster again.[/quote'] Ronnie had no excuses.. After the first frame, both players hit their best form... Even when Trump went 4-3 up, he threw away a super chance to go 5-3 up.... Trump deserved winner most definately.. Some of his long pots were outrageous

[PerryPFC]

Re: Snooker: 2011 UK Championship Dec. 3-11 I followed you and Kev, I was on the edge of my seat at work following that 10th frame on the World Snooker website! Cest la vie!

[Mirage]

Re: Snooker: 2011 UK Championship Dec. 3-11

3pts M.Stevens to beat D.Junhui 7/4 Boylesports

Can count yourself unlucky with that one, too. Stevens didn't play too great, apart from a couple of frames, but he was in a good position in the decider. Ding the deserved winner i think, but you should really have had a Stevens win to celebrate :sad

[ThusPrider]

Re: Snooker: 2011 UK Championship Dec. 3-11

Ding 8/15 vs Matthew Stephens Trump 15/8 vs O'sullivan

Well, two winners for me, but both won by just one frame! Can consider myself lucky but both played very well and deserved to progress. Wonder if i can keep the roll going on tonights games: Going for both favourites this time with a bet365 double on: Robertson 8/15 Higgins 1/2 bet365. Robertson is in superb form progressing 6 - 0 through round 1. Id expect a tougher match against the well expererienced Dott. However with Robertsons form I see him as a serious challenger for the title this year and I should expect him to get past Dott without too much of a struggle. Higgins won this event last year with an excellent comeback several frames down and needing snookers, but Williams somehow managed to give it to Higgins and though he has been in the news for his match fixings and other controversies there is no denying that he is an excellent match player. Though critical of the format, he shouldnt have much trouble dealing with a very average Maguire.

[Mirage]

Re: Snooker: 2011 UK Championship Dec. 3-11 Going to take another for tonight's matches as i think the price is good enough..... Tuesday: John Higgins vs Stephen Maguire 2/5pts J. Higgins (-1.5 frames) to beat S. Maguire - 4/5 with Bet365 I got stung with this line earlier but it hasn't put me off siding with Higgins here at a price that i think is a bit bigger than it should be. Higgins was by no means impressive in his first round match but has come into this week off the back of a decent showing at the latest PTC, so we know his game is ok. He has a good record here and i expect him to be a lot better tonight than he was the other day after having experience of how the tables are playing. Against McLeod he was average overall and there were a few scrappy frames but i think that was more down to the way McLeod plays rather than Higgins getting himself into trouble. McLeod is happy to play the safety game all day long in the hope of grinding down his opponents and, for me, that is the complete opposite of how Maguire will want it tonight. Maguire did well in a tricky first round tie to come through but he has a much tougher task tonight. Maguire likes to be in amongst the balls and if a safety battle starts i would favour Higgins all day long against Maguire - more so than Higgins versus a lot of the others in the top 16. This should be a match with plenty of high breaks from both players but i think Higgins has a huge edge when it comes to forcing the opponent into an error to let him in. I am on Higgins for the outright but feel it is worth siding with him once again here in the hope that he will record his 3rd straight victory against his fellow Scotsman. If it does come down to who plays the better tactical game, as i suspect it will, Higgins should triumph 6-4 or better.

[Aidymac]

Re: Snooker: 2011 UK Championship Dec. 3-11 I think Higgins should win tonight... But Maguire will put it up to him.. The way the format is and first to 6 frames, it doesnt come down to who the better player is, it comes down to who gets a good start and can get a couple of lucky breaks, anything can happen in a first to 6.. So with that in mind Higgins may nick this 6-4 0r 6-5 but Maguire could just as easily win... I certainly dont think Higgins will win by 3 frames or more so the Maguire +1.5 is a standout bet to me, and even money is a good price.. Stephen Maguire +1.5 @ EVENS Betfred!

[PerryPFC]

Re: Snooker: 2011 UK Championship Dec. 3-11

I think Higgins should win tonight... But Maguire will put it up to him.. The way the format is and first to 6 frames, it doesnt come down to who the better player is, it comes down to who gets a good start and can get a couple of lucky breaks, anything can happen in a first to 6.. So with that in mind Higgins may nick this 6-4 0r 6-5 but Maguire could just as easily win... I certainly dont think Higgins will win by 3 frames or more so the Maguire +1.5 is a standout bet to me, and even money is a good price.. Stephen Maguire +1.5 @ EVENS Betfred!

He only needs to win by 2 to cover a 1.5 handicap :ok

[Aidymac]

Re: Snooker: 2011 UK Championship Dec. 3-11

He only needs to win by 2 to cover a 1.5 handicap :ok

Yes, i know! I was just stressing that i feel the odds are in my favour! :ok

[Aidymac]

Re: Snooker: 2011 UK Championship Dec. 3-11

I think Higgins should win tonight... But Maguire will put it up to him.. The way the format is and first to 6 frames, it doesnt come down to who the better player is, it comes down to who gets a good start and can get a couple of lucky breaks, anything can happen in a first to 6.. So with that in mind Higgins may nick this 6-4 0r 6-5 but Maguire could just as easily win... I certainly dont think Higgins will win by 3 frames or more so the Maguire +1.5 is a standout bet to me, and even money is a good price.. Stephen Maguire +1.5 @ EVENS Betfred!

Easiest money i ever made! :beer