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England > Midweek > BlueSQ Bet Prem Nov 29

Shipsupstreets

By Shipsupstreets
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luckotheoirish

luckotheoirish

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Re: England > Midweek > BlueSQ Bet Prem Nov 29

A general point on betting...the boldfaced part is a very silly and dangerous line of thought, in my opinion. In the first game of the year, no one had scored any goals; does that mean a team has no goals in them? Replacement value of new players is very often underestimated. It's quite possible that a manager is shit and isn't fielding his best 11, so the replacements are actually better, more motivated, whatever. The players coming in have skills of some sort, and it's still football, so unless they're a bunch of 14-year-olds playing against Barcelona, they will have the ball some and accrue some chances, and some of them could even put a boot behind the ball and find it in the back of the net. The players coming in may be young and inexperienced, but they may also surprise you. I doubt it in this case, but removing all the goals Kettering's former players scored and saying they wouldn't have won any games is just silly. Other players would have been out there in their place, and maybe they'd have scored just as many.
Ok,I see your point but let me give you this breakdown.Of the two teams that started last Saturday for both sides and their career apps and goals KETTERING............................. FLEETWOOD Bridges 57 apps 8 goals............ Vardy 17 apps 16 goals Swaibu 59 apps 3 goals............ Mangan 83 apps 53 goals Davies 83 apps 1 goal.............. Seddon 59 apps 39 goals Koo Boote 13apps 1goal........... Till. 103 apps 6 goals Deeney 1 app 0 goals........... Milligan 31 apps 19 goals Meechan. 24 apps 0 goals........... Pond. 31 apps 7 goals O leary. 25 apps 1 goal........... Charnock 56 apps 1goal Dawkin. 5 apps 1goal........... Goodall. 82 apps 3 goals Hughes-Mason 6 apps 1goal.......... Cavanagh 18 apps 0 goals Noubisse(sub) 82 apps 1goal.......... Beesley. 50 apps 2 goals Dance 6 apps 0 goals.......... Viera( sub)109 apps 45 goals Total. 361 apps 17goals.......... Total. 589 apps 191 goals Maybe Hughes Mason hasn't shown his full potential yet and I'm not sure about Dawkin but apart from that the others have had a chance to show their goal potential.Vardy on his own has scored nearly as many goals in 17 games as the entire Kettering team in their careers so far.I'm not being general and I know this doesn't apply all the time, Im being very specific for this game alone and all I'm saying is that I think the home side are capable of scoring more goals.....
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luckotheoirish

luckotheoirish

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Re: England > Midweek > BlueSQ Bet Prem Nov 29 I just got them quickly off soccerway, but it gives the goals and apps for the players previous clubs but maybe soccerway is wrong.I didn't even count Brodie's 59 goals and he's available tonight.I think people are picking me up wrong.I said the price of 5/6 wouldn't last and it didn't.I'm willing to bet my hard earned money at 5/6 that Fleetwood will beat the handicap and giving my reasons why.This isn't my view for every match ever played only very specifically for this one off game.I'm not asking anyone to follow me, what people do with their own money is their own business. Fleetwood may very well get two men sent off in the first 5 minutes and lose but I'm willing to risk small/medium stakes that they'll win by 2 or more.....

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Darran

Darran

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Re: England > Midweek > BlueSQ Bet Prem Nov 29

Is that correct? I doubt Mangan's are just for Fleetwood as he only left us at the end of last season.
I was talking about Vardy and some of the others look wrong as well. Also surely Mangan has played more than 80 odd games in his career. He probably played that many at FGR and Wrexham alone.
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allthethings

allthethings

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Re: England > Midweek > BlueSQ Bet Prem Nov 29

Ok,I see your point but let me give you this breakdown.Of the two teams that started last Saturday for both sides and their career apps and goals KETTERING............................. FLEETWOOD Bridges 57 apps 8 goals............ Vardy 17 apps 16 goals Swaibu 59 apps 3 goals............ Mangan 83 apps 53 goals Davies 83 apps 1 goal.............. Seddon 59 apps 39 goals Koo Boote 13apps 1goal........... Till. 103 apps 6 goals Deeney 1 app 0 goals........... Milligan 31 apps 19 goals Meechan. 24 apps 0 goals........... Pond. 31 apps 7 goals O leary. 25 apps 1 goal........... Charnock 56 apps 1goal Dawkin. 5 apps 1goal........... Goodall. 82 apps 3 goals Hughes-Mason 6 apps 1goal.......... Cavanagh 18 apps 0 goals Noubisse(sub) 82 apps 1goal.......... Beesley. 50 apps 2 goals Dance 6 apps 0 goals.......... Viera( sub)109 apps 45 goals Total. 361 apps 17goals.......... Total. 589 apps 191 goals Maybe Hughes Mason hasn't shown his full potential yet and I'm not sure about Dawkin but apart from that the others have had a chance to show their goal potential.Vardy on his own has scored nearly as many goals in 17 games as the entire Kettering team in their careers so far.I'm not being general and I know this doesn't apply all the time, Im being very specific for this game alone and all I'm saying is that I think the home side are capable of scoring more goals.....
Yes, I agree it's looking bad for Kettering here. I will say that every time I see the specific phrase, "I don't know where the goals are going to come from" on this and other betting boards, it's usually a sign that the goals will surely come. I hope Fleetwood make it 5-2 then, but only if my book posts up odds for overs for me to take. :lol
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luckotheoirish

luckotheoirish

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Re: England > Midweek > BlueSQ Bet Prem Nov 29

Fleetwood Town FC RICHARD BRODIE12/11/201129/11/2011Suspended from all first team football until the Club have completed 3 first team matches for a Sending Off in a match played on 12/11/2011.
Thanks addpea,just as well i didn't add his 59 goals so.I know this seems to be a simplistic approach and I would be the first to acknowledge that I have a very poor first hand knowledge of English soccer but I think my strength lies in analysing how a price fits a particular scenario. Anyone who regularly reads my posts will know that I put in a bit of work on my bets by reading as much as I can get my hands on about a match and then making up my mind if the price set by the bookies is correct.I thought the 5\6 was too big and now it's 1\2 with Padraig Powers.....let whatever happens in the match happen....
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luckotheoirish

luckotheoirish

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Re: England > Midweek > BlueSQ Bet Prem Nov 29

Yes' date=' I agree it's looking bad for Kettering here. I will say that every time I see the specific phrase, "I don't know where the goals are going to come from" on this and other betting boards, it's usually a sign that the goals will surely come. I hope Fleetwood make it 5-2 then, but only if my book posts up odds for overs for me to take. :lol[/quote'] I see exactly where you're coming from and I am an admirer of your work, this forum would be a worse place without your input.Having said all I have,Kettering could score 3 tonight and make me look like a fool....hope you get to put your over bet on and it ends up well for you.....
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allthethings

allthethings

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Re: England > Midweek > BlueSQ Bet Prem Nov 29

Interesting discussion and as much as I appreciate Allthethings' work on underdogs I really think it's a wasted effort trying to prove that Kettering might get something out of Fleetwood today.
I'm not trying to prove that at all; the situation for Fleetwood today looks very favorable. I'm merely pointing out two facts: 1) the very best home teams in the Conference have no more than 6 home wins in 10, and 2) on a scale of 1 to 10 for players' value to team efforts, bettors often give a "0" to replacement players or youth players. That is I think shortsighted. If each replacement has two legs, one head and a heart, they can lose people a lot of money.
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allthethings

allthethings

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Re: England > Midweek > BlueSQ Bet Prem Nov 29

I see exactly where you're coming from and I am an admirer of your work' date=' this forum would be a worse place without your input.Having said all I have,Kettering could score 3 tonight and make me look like a fool....hope you get to put your over bet on and it ends up well for you.....[/quote'] I want us all to win money, and I come here for the lively discussions. Cheers and luck to all.
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luckotheoirish

luckotheoirish

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Re: England > Midweek > BlueSQ Bet Prem Nov 29

I'm not trying to prove that at all; the situation for Fleetwood today looks very favorable. I'm merely pointing out two facts: 1) the very best home teams in the Conference have no more than 6 home wins in 10' date=' and 2) on a scale of 1 to 10 for players' value to team efforts, bettors often give a "0" to replacement players or youth players. That is I think shortsighted. If each replacement has two legs, one head and a heart, they can lose people a lot of money.[/quote'] Exactly right....
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KavkaZ

KavkaZ

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Re: England > Midweek > BlueSQ Bet Prem Nov 29 Excellent Football Portal, Excellent Tipsters around here. What more can I say? The Punter's Lounge - without doubt, it is the best tipping site you will ever find on the net! Hayes & Yeading - Newport

I had Newport on my shortlist to beat Hayes and was tempted at the 15/8 they were but last night that had already been clipped in so I left it. Now they are as short as 6/5. I find it hard to see why people would want to back them at that price. They are struggling to score goals and although Hayes defence isnt the best they can score goals.
People backed Newport at 2.60 ( now at 2.10) in the morning because they are decent side, with 1-2-0 6-3 away record last 3, unlucky not to take all 3 points in Grimsby (2-2) - they've scored both goals in the first 20 min and allowed Grimbsy to comeback in the final 15 minutes to level - now Newport were gived equal chances to Hayes & Yeading when the oddsmakers set the lines. Simply because will play 21 vs 22 place. Moreover, this Newport beat Fleetwood Town (2nd) away 4-1. Now coming after a home lost, Newport will try to take back 3p against Hayes. Before the game with Fleetwood Town they were beaten at home, the same happened before Grimsby. Just having a look to theyr stats from the past 7 games: beat 4-1 away 2nd placed, draw 0-0 away with 1st place Wrexham. Pick: Newport score in the first half @ 1.825 Sportingbet 4/10 Newport -0.25 @ 1.95 Bet365 6/10 5f9b429a52720969206b13da2820c4d4.gif I master bets on the Russian Football from A to Z.. the other football leagues, try to give my bets (pardon, my best)
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xfx

xfx

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Re: England > Midweek > BlueSQ Bet Prem Nov 29

BARROW.....@ 5/6...Padraig Powers...stakes 2/10.I think there's just a tinge of value here on the home side.They are 6-2-2 on their own patch scoring 20 and conceding 10 in 10 games.Alfreton have one of the worst away records in the league with 1-1-8 scoring 9 and with 25 conceded only Hayes have let in more on their travels. Alfreton will have to make one of their longest midweek journeys tomorrow night without their central defensive trio of Hawes,Wilson and Franks.They will also miss winger Mullen through suspension. Barrow have already beaten Fleetwood(4-0) and Wrexham(3-1) at home and they're the top two in the division.The 3-1 reverse suffered by Wrexham is the Welsh outfit's only away loss in their 11 away outings.I think Barrow should have enough to see off 2nd from bottom Alfreton.....
I am a firm support of barrow tonight. luckoftheoirish has said most of the news available. I've done more read up on barrow, Boyes their topscorer should be playing, with James Owen back from a one match ban. Andy Cook their 2nd topscorer is doubtful with an injury (but he usually last 75min). I'm punting big on barrow with the thought that Alfreton, already with a bad away record, faces a long trip with 3 defenders out. Barrow has been shooting blanks for the past 2 games but york (0-0) is a top team so no shame there while Barrow was dominating against telford until the linesman decided to allow the goal which did not cross the line. Very good chance for Barrow tonight!
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Darran

Darran

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Re: England > Midweek > BlueSQ Bet Prem Nov 29 Dont say I didnt warn warn you and I hope they win for you but Ive learnt to my cost in the past that Barrow are an unreliable team and not one to go lumping on at short odds. Id rather back them when the big teams come up to their place.

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bartonbank

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Re: England > Midweek > BlueSQ Bet Prem Nov 29 Wrexham to beat Darlington Admittedly our home record is not as good as our away, but Darlo are in pretty poor shape at the moment and we are still unbeaten in God knows how long with 7 league clean sheets to boot. That, though, is not the reason I tip us up to win in front of the Premier Sport cameras (if they have more than one of 'em, that is!) Nope, the reason should be the feelgood factor that will be present as there is a strong rumour that the FA and Conference will finally give the go-ahead for the Fans Trust to takeover the club. The players and manager have been on the Trust's side as well so, all in all, I expect a positive result both on and off the field tomorrow. COYR!

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allthethings

allthethings

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Re: England > Midweek > BlueSQ Bet Prem Nov 29 This link explains my strategy: http://forum.punterslounge.com/f21/england-lower-leagues-big-dogs-122904/ I'm with the seven dogs of better than 4.00 (I've cheated and included Braintree, as odds continue to rise close to 4.00), though primarily backing draws on the huge dogs (Lincoln, Telford, Kettering), and taking overs as well in all games. Conference games involving big dogs have tended slightly toward overs (55%), but the matchups are so lopsided (Kettering at 11.40 now, Telford @ 8.94, Lincoln @ 6.63) I feel I should guard against a bunch of blowouts. The odds were all at O2.75, and I'm taking Fleetwood O3.25 now that it's available. My feeling is that the overs could be a good hedge against some expected gaudy 4-1 scorelines.

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xfx

xfx

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Re: England > Midweek > BlueSQ Bet Prem Nov 29

Dont say I didnt warn warn you and I hope they win for you but Ive learnt to my cost in the past that Barrow are an unreliable team and not one to go lumping on at short odds. Id rather back them when the big teams come up to their place.
Thanks for the heads up. Usually I'm more conservative for conf and below, but couldnt resist this one! Hope I am right!
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Darran

Darran

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Re: England > Midweek > BlueSQ Bet Prem Nov 29 Yeah and Southport down to 10 as well. Looking like I should have got on Newport as they are 2 up, Grimsby are 4 up and Fleetwood are 2 up so part 1 of my bets is complete just need them to win by more than 2 now.

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