England > Midweek > BlueSQ Bet Prem Nov 29

[Shipsupstreets]

	Tuesday 29 November 2011	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
	Barrow v Alfreton Town (19:45 GMT)	4/5	5/2	7/2	106.27 %
	Cambridge United v Bath City (19:45 GMT)	8/15	3	11/2	105.60 %
	Ebbsfleet United v Kidderminster Harriers (19:45 GMT)	13/8	5/2	6/4	106.67 %
	Fleetwood Town v Kettering Town (19:45 GMT)	1/4	11/2	9	105.38 %
	Grimsby Town v Stockport County (19:45 GMT)	11/10	5/2	5/2	104.76 %
	Hayes & Yeading v Newport County (19:45 GMT)	6/4	12/5	15/8	104.19 %
	Luton Town v AFC Telford United (19:45 GMT)	9/20	3	6	108.00 %
	Mansfield Town v Gateshead (19:45 GMT)	5/4	5/2	5/2	101.59 %
	Southport v Forest Green Rovers (19:45 GMT)	5/6	13/5	7/2	104.30 %
	Tamworth v Braintree Town (19:45 GMT)	6/5	5/2	9/4	104.80 %
	York City v Lincoln City (19:45 GMT)	4/6	11/4	7/2	107.72 %
	Wednesday 30 November 2011	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
	Wrexham v Darlington (19:45 GMT)	7/10	13/5	7/2	107.65 %

[dj rob]

Re: England > Midweek > BlueSQ Bet Prem Nov 29 Tamworth - Braintree over 2.75 1.99 Pinnacle 3/10 This bet refers more to Braintree, who have played a 0-0 vs. Wrexham on Saturday, but I don´t see such a big gap between the opponents here. Before that match they played 12 overs in a row (9 of them over 3.5). Tamworth isn´t that overish but keeps on scoring and conceding at home (last home match 2:2 vs. Kettering). From last 6 games at home they conceded in 5 and scored in 5. At home they played 5 overs/4 unders (Braintree away has 7 overs/3 unders). Last match between the two ended with 3-1 to Braintree. Odds are nice, line should be around 3 goals.

[luckotheoirish]

Re: England > Midweek > BlueSQ Bet Prem Nov 29 Fleetwood -1EH @ 5/6 anyone??

[RedDevil92]

Re: England > Midweek > BlueSQ Bet Prem Nov 29

Fleetwood -1EH @ 5/6 anyone??

Yes,I am considering to do that but I wait for all bookies to offer this bet and maby someone has better odds.Mybe bet365 offers some Asian Handicap.

[luckotheoirish]

Re: England > Midweek > BlueSQ Bet Prem Nov 29 I may be wrong but I don't see the 5/6 getting any bigger in the future!!

[Lodge]

Re: England > Midweek > BlueSQ Bet Prem Nov 29 I'll be honest, i was potentially looking at going the other way, and backing Kettering on some kind of handicap if the price of Fleetwood was ridiculously short. The Kettering team wasnt quite inexperienced as expected for Saturdays game.. However the match is not priced up on Bet365 :\

[Darran]

Re: England > Midweek > BlueSQ Bet Prem Nov 29

I'll be honest' date=' i was potentially looking at going the other way, and backing Kettering on some kind of handicap if the price of Fleetwood was ridiculously short. The Kettering team wasnt quite inexperienced as expected for Saturdays game.. However the match is not priced up on Bet365 :\[/quote'] The one thing in Kettering's favour tomorrow is the fact Fleetwood have their big FA Cup game on Friday night so I wonder if the likes of Vardy might not play. Even so if Fleetwood dont win fairly comfortably tomorrow I would be surprised. That line-up was weak on Saturday, I think people got carried away a little with the youth team thing as that was only going to happen if the players who remained didnt want to play. They are still very light up front and Im guessing they will still have only 3 subs at most tomorrow night. For as hard as they worked on Saturday it doesnt really sound like they were in the game until late on and that effort might well show tomorrow as well

[soundingstylish]

Re: England > Midweek > BlueSQ Bet Prem Nov 29 Grimsby vs Stockport - Grimsby @ EVS - Stan James/Coral After having the weight of the world on their shoulders on Saturday, post Kettering debacle, Grimsby take on Stockport at Blundell Park under somewhat normal circumstances. I generally don't like backing a team back-to-back but Jim Gannon's comments caught my eye in the Non-League Paper. He is said to have been furious with his County team after going down to a solitary goal against ten men Southport; blaming keeper Mark Halstead in the process. Gannon described his team as 'social loafers' and a lot of the County fans agree with him. Grimsby have come into a bit of form as of late and their record at home is pretty sound. Five wins, four defeats and one draw; with three of the defeats against teams in the top six. Jim Gannon's still got a little bit of work to do to get Stockport back on track and I think Grimsby will capitalise here.

[HastGill1]

Re: England > Midweek > BlueSQ Bet Prem Nov 29 I'm not a real follower of this league but I can't see there being much value in odds against for a side to win by at least two goals? Kettering's XI average age was 23 on Sat, hardly kids, and if Koo-Booth hadn't spooned over the bar from a yard out in the last minute they would have got a draw, and everyone would have been stuffed. Fleetwood do look a good side though looking at recent results, will take the advice of the old heads of the thread..

[luckotheoirish]

Re: England > Midweek > BlueSQ Bet Prem Nov 29 I'm going for Fleetwood on the handicap anyway as I think the 5/6 is worth taking for small/ medium stakes.Away to Fleetwood is a different prospect to being at home to a Grimsby team with one win away before Saturday.According to the mariner's manager they should have been 2/3-0 up at half time.I don't think the poppies can afford to give Vardy,Mangan,Seddon and Brody too many chances. As Addpea says it's hard to see where the goals are going to come from for the away side.I think Fleetwood may have one eye on the cup but they need to win to push for top spot in the league.....

[Darran]

Re: England > Midweek > BlueSQ Bet Prem Nov 29

I'm not a real follower of this league but I can't see there being much value in odds against for a side to win by at least two goals? Kettering's XI average age was 23 on Sat, hardly kids, and if Koo-Booth hadn't spooned over the bar from a yard out in the last minute they would have got a draw, and everyone would have been stuffed. Fleetwood do look a good side though looking at recent results, will take the advice of the old heads of the thread..

I think the fact a lot of people were talking about the possibility of a young side means that the average age of 23 does seem high, but its the quality I am concerned with. I agree Kettering could have grabbed a draw but then as Luck says Grimsby should have had more than 2 by that point but they just werent clinical enough (which would concern me against Stockport). I think the Kettering players who are left want to try their hardest for the fans especially as they have donated money to the players to help them be able to afford to get to games and training but they lack quality.

[luckotheoirish]

Re: England > Midweek > BlueSQ Bet Prem Nov 29 BARROW.....@ 5/6...Padraig Powers...stakes 2/10.I think there's just a tinge of value here on the home side.They are 6-2-2 on their own patch scoring 20 and conceding 10 in 10 games.Alfreton have one of the worst away records in the league with 1-1-8 scoring 9 and with 25 conceded only Hayes have let in more on their travels. Alfreton will have to make one of their longest midweek journeys tomorrow night without their central defensive trio of Hawes,Wilson and Franks.They will also miss winger Mullen through suspension. Barrow have already beaten Fleetwood(4-0) and Wrexham(3-1) at home and they're the top two in the division.The 3-1 reverse suffered by Wrexham is the Welsh outfit's only away loss in their 11 away outings.I think Barrow should have enough to see off 2nd from bottom Alfreton.....

[luckotheoirish]

Re: England > Midweek > BlueSQ Bet Prem Nov 29 Bet366's prices are up for Fleetwood and -1EH is 8/15....I thought Boilsports were chickens @ 8/13!!!I said earlier that the 5/6 wouldn't get any bigger and I still don't think it will.I'm not saying Fleetwood will definitely win by 2 or more but with 31 goals at their disposal upfront as opposed to 2 or 3 for Kettering, I think it's worth giving the 5/6 a shot.....

[allthethings]

Re: England > Midweek > BlueSQ Bet Prem Nov 29

Bet366's prices are up for Fleetwood and -1EH is 8/15....I thought Boilsports were chickens @ 8/13!!!I said earlier that the 5/6 wouldn't get any bigger and I still don't think it will.I'm not saying Fleetwood will definitely win by 2 or more but with 31 goals at their disposal upfront as opposed to 2 or 3 for Kettering' date=' I think it's worth giving the 5/6 a shot.....[/quote'] I wouldn't touch this one, personally. Fleetwood are 2nd on the table and they have 5 wins in 10 home games, and Kettering have lost 4 in 10 away, albeit with a different lineup. Kettering have more than "2 or 3 goals at their disposal up front" no matter how young they are or how small their roster is at the moment. Odds of 9.00 to 12.00 for the dogs are obviously out of whack with the reality of football, which is that anything can happen. The best home teams in Conference have 6 wins out of 10 at home...Fleetwood aren't Manchester City, you know...they lost 1-4 to Newport at home, and Telford, Forest Green, Darlington and York all collected draws there.

[luckotheoirish]

Re: England > Midweek > BlueSQ Bet Prem Nov 29

I wouldn't touch this one' date=' personally. Fleetwood are 2nd on the table and they have 5 wins in 10 home games, and Kettering have lost 4 in 10 away, albeit with a different lineup. Kettering have more than "2 or 3 goals at their disposal up front" no matter how young they are or how small their roster is at the moment. Odds of 9.00 to 12.00 for the dogs are obviously out of whack with the reality of football, which is that anything can happen. The best home teams in Conference have 6 wins out of 10 at home...Fleetwood aren't Manchester City, you know...they lost 1-4 to Newport at home, and Telford, Forest Green, Darlington and York all collected draws there.[/quote'] Yes,I totally agree with your point that anything can happen in football and quite often does.Kettering have indeed lost 4 away in 10 but if you take the missing players goals away then they wouldn't have won any away game this season.The reality is that if you look at the team that lined out for them last Saturday then their frontline had 2 goals between them and now have 3. I think that bet366 and Boilsports are closer to the Mark and if the price was less than 5/6 then I wouldn't take it. Fleetwood have indeed lost badly to Newport and drawn 4 also but they'll see this match as a chance to possibly overtake Wrexham,they beat Mansfield 5-0 and Wycombe 2-0 in the cup,so these results are also possible and against a disjointed team who supposedly didn't train last week,I'm willing to take a chance on the home side to clear the handicap....I won't be going mad on the stakes though...I'm not asking anyone to follow me, just giving my opinion...

[dj rob]

Re: England > Midweek > BlueSQ Bet Prem Nov 29 I wonder why odds have risen drastically on Cambridge...AH-1 is now 2.1 (Pinnacle). When lines came out it was 1.92...could be worth a try. I don´t think that Bath will get a point here. Cambridge is good at home with a strong defence...and Bath away looks simply terrible.

[luckotheoirish]

Re: England > Midweek > BlueSQ Bet Prem Nov 29

I wonder why odds have risen drastically on Cambridge...AH-1 is now 2.1 (Pinnacle). When lines came out it was 1.92...could be worth a try. I don´t think that Bath will get a point here. Cambridge is good at home with a strong defence...and Bath away looks simply terrible.

Price drifting a bit on Cambridge alright...I think it's because Bath have become more difficult to beat recently drawing their last 5 games.They have a couple of loan signings from Bristol city and have a full squad for this game.Cambridge should win but Bath have started to battle against relegation so I don't see any value in the home side....

[Itachi1]

Re: England > Midweek > BlueSQ Bet Prem Nov 29 Guys what do you think about Barrow vs Alfreton Town. I think Barrow are really good at home meanwhile Alfreton Town really struggle away from home. Bet365 offers Barrow at 1.72

[AHughes]

Re: England > Midweek > BlueSQ Bet Prem Nov 29 Adding to the Kettering debate, wouldnt the youngsters wanting to play well and impress to gain a run in the side properly? Iv seen these kind of things before.

[luckotheoirish]

Re: England > Midweek > BlueSQ Bet Prem Nov 29

Guys what do you think about Barrow vs Alfreton Town. I think Barrow are really good at home meanwhile Alfreton Town really struggle away from home. Bet365 offers Barrow at 1.72

And Padraig Powers are 5/6...or for all you young decimal kids..1.83333333333333333

[luckotheoirish]

Re: England > Midweek > BlueSQ Bet Prem Nov 29

Adding to the Kettering debate' date=' wouldnt the youngsters wanting to play well and impress to gain a run in the side properly? Iv seen these kind of things before.[/quote'] I like a good discussion.Addpea mentioned this earlier and I agree, I don't think it's a question of the age issue, I think it's the quality of the players available to Kettering.If the poppies still had all their full squad available, how many of these players would make the first team?I'm not saying they wont give 100% but lack of training and playing together may tell when playing away at a good side(not Man City of course). If they do have to play 1 or 2 youngsters then I have no doubt that they will want to impress but it's a big step up for them especially when they haven't been training or playing first team football.

[Darran]

Re: England > Midweek > BlueSQ Bet Prem Nov 29 Fleetwood v Kettering So basically Kettering have got 14 players available to them at the moment as they can’t sign anyone thanks to a transfer embargo. From what I understand they aren’t allowed to sign any players at all, including youth team players who haven’t signed Conference registration forms. They put in a good effort against Grimsby on Saturday but the lack of quality in the side showed, especially up front, and it’s not hard to imagine a pretty easy win for Fleetwood here. The one danger is Fleetwood have obviously got a big FA Cup game with Yeovil on Friday so may rest players, but I think they will want to make sure they get the points as soon as possible as they can’t afford not to win here. Paddy Power go 5/6 in the HT/FT market and 11/5 on the -2 handicap and both of those look plays to me. Mansfield v Gateshead Gateshead put in their best performance for a while on Saturday when getting a point against Fleetwood and they will fancy their chances of banking all three against a Mansfield team who continue to struggle for form. I thought they would be ready to kick on after a two week break when they played AFC Telford last week but they could only draw 0-0. Then on Saturday they were lucky to get a point against bottom side Bath as they had numerous chances to score a 2nd and win the game. Their only win in the last six was a very lucky one against Alfreton and they are still disappointing. Gateshead at least showed more on Saturday and look over priced at 12/5 (Coral) to pick up three points. Southport v Forest Green Rovers The fantastic Southport run continued on Saturday as they beat Stockport 1-0 and they only had 10 men for 85 minutes. It was a dire game though and Southport’s performances have not been massively impressive of late and they seemed to have had a fair bit of luck on their side. I firmly believe that Southport’s run is going to come to an end sooner rather than later and it might well happen on Tuesday. Forest Green have only lost once away from home all season and their recent good form has gone under the radar a bit. They have won four of their last five and the other they got a deserved point at home to York on Saturday. I don’t think there is that much between these two sides and the 3/1 with Coral looks too big.

[Darran]

Re: England > Midweek > BlueSQ Bet Prem Nov 29 I try and stay away from Barrow games because they are rather unpredictable for me. Alfreton are showing improved form recently so I personnaly wouldnt back Barrow at odds on.

Guys what do you think about Barrow vs Alfreton Town. I think Barrow are really good at home meanwhile Alfreton Town really struggle away from home. Bet365 offers Barrow at 1.72

[Darran]

Re: England > Midweek > BlueSQ Bet Prem Nov 29

Adding to the Kettering debate' date=' wouldnt the youngsters wanting to play well and impress to gain a run in the side properly? Iv seen these kind of things before.[/quote'] But as I mention above they only have 14 players available to them right now so they will be playing anyway. They will be trying hard for the fans who donated over £400 to the players on Saturday but if you lack the quality against what is arugubaly the strongest squad of players in the league then you are likely to come of worse. If any team lose their 3 main strikers then it is going to hurt them badly and that is what has happened to Kettering. One other thing to mention which I forgot about when I wrote my preview. Fleetwood are 2nd in the league on goal difference. They should be viewing tonight as a perfect chance to to improve theirs tonight especially as I think the league will be close come the end of the season. Its football so obviously anything can happen but the whole idea of betting is that you put your money down on what you think will happen and this is what I think will happen tonight.

[Darran]

Re: England > Midweek > BlueSQ Bet Prem Nov 29 I had Newport on my shortlist to beat Hayes and was tempted at the 15/8 they were but last night that had already been clipped in so I left it. Now they are as short as 6/5. I find it hard to see why people would want to back them at that price. They are struggling to score goals and although Hayes defence isnt the best they can score goals.

[allthethings]

Re: England > Midweek > BlueSQ Bet Prem Nov 29

Yes' date='I totally agree with your point that anything can happen in football and quite often does.Kettering have indeed lost 4 away in 10 but [b']if you take the missing players goals away then they wouldn't have won any away game this season.The reality is that if you look at the team that lined out for them last Saturday then their frontline had 2 goals between them and now have 3. I think that bet366 and Boilsports are closer to the Mark and if the price was less than 5/6 then I wouldn't take it. Fleetwood have indeed lost badly to Newport and drawn 4 also but they'll see this match as a chance to possibly overtake Wrexham,they beat Mansfield 5-0 and Wycombe 2-0 in the cup,so these results are also possible and against a disjointed team who supposedly didn't train last week,I'm willing to take a chance on the home side to clear the handicap....I won't be going mad on the stakes though...I'm not asking anyone to follow me, just giving my opinion...

A general point on betting...the boldfaced part is a very silly and dangerous line of thought, in my opinion. In the first game of the year, no one had scored any goals; does that mean a team has no goals in them? Replacement value of new players is very often underestimated. It's quite possible that a manager is shit and isn't fielding his best 11, so the replacements are actually better, more motivated, whatever. The players coming in have skills of some sort, and it's still football, so unless they're a bunch of 14-year-olds playing against Barcelona, they will have the ball some and accrue some chances, and some of them could even put a boot behind the ball and find it in the back of the net. The players coming in may be young and inexperienced, but they may also surprise you. I doubt it in this case, but removing all the goals Kettering's former players scored and saying they wouldn't have won any games is just silly. Other players would have been out there in their place, and maybe they'd have scored just as many.

[allthethings]

Re: England > Midweek > BlueSQ Bet Prem Nov 29

But as I mention above they only have 14 players available to them right now so they will be playing anyway. They will be trying hard for the fans who donated over £400 to the players on Saturday but if you lack the quality against what is arugubaly the strongest squad of players in the league then you are likely to come of worse. If any team lose their 3 main strikers then it is going to hurt them badly and that is what has happened to Kettering. One other thing to mention which I forgot about when I wrote my preview. Fleetwood are 2nd in the league on goal difference. They should be viewing tonight as a perfect chance to to improve theirs tonight especially as I think the league will be close come the end of the season. Its football so obviously anything can happen but the whole idea of betting is that you put your money down on what you think will happen and this is what I think will happen tonight.

My book isn't offering odds on overs, which is what I intended to take for this game. :@

[allthethings]

Re: England > Midweek > BlueSQ Bet Prem Nov 29 By the way addpea, what on earth happened in Alfreton's last match? Four goals in extra time, and Alfreton a man short? I never did see highlights...must have been crazy.

[Darran]

Re: England > Midweek > BlueSQ Bet Prem Nov 29

By the way addpea' date=' what on earth happened in Alfreton's last match? Four goals in extra time, and Alfreton a man short? I never did see highlights...must have been crazy.[/quote'] Indeed it was crazy enough watching the goals come in on the vidiprinter. I havent seen the highlights either but Hayes 2nd was a 30 yard screamer apparantly. Back to Kettering and the points you make. Mark Stimson is a very good manager and this level and I think he has been a big part in the reason why they have got as many points as they have since he took over. Not only are they light on numbers but I also think they have the weakest side in the league now. Unless the transfer embargo is lifited I find it very hard not to see them being relegated.

[Darran]

Re: England > Midweek > BlueSQ Bet Prem Nov 29

My book isn't offering odds on overs' date=' which is what I intended to take for this game. :@[/quote'] Quite a few bookies are quoting over 2.5 goals with Blue Square the best at 1/2. Its 8/11 on there being over 3.5 goals with the bookies offering that bet.