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NFL Week 12


allthethings
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Re: NFL Week 12

I took a knee-jerk SD -6.5 when the odds were first posted. I have to think that' date=' as surprisingly mediocre that SD has turned out to be, eventually Denver is going to find itself down by 14 points and we'll see the Tebow experiment crash and burn. He has showed some real winning play when down in the last five minutes, but he's not ideally suited to falling behind early. It's a divisional matchup, which suggests a close game, especially with a defense as solid as [u']Denver's, but I'm positive Tebow is going to lose 41-3 one of these days, so why not to a team who has to win the rest of its games to qualify for the playoffs? SD after this has two games you might call winnable, then Baltimore at home, then Detroit away and Oakland at home...this game against Denver, home against a QB who can't throw, is one they absolutely have to win.
It is a measure of my brilliance that I took this at -6.5 when I could have waited and gotten SD at -4. :rollin Good news is Buffalo and Arizona covered for me...
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Re: NFL Week 12

Hey Taza' date=' since you seem to have all the numbers handy...what are the figures if you only go back to 2000, say?[/quote'] It seems to keep a pretty similar % all the way thru att... ...in fact, it's dead even since 08, and 41-44-1 since 09... [That's the 9 points or less] 55-33-4 since 05 after losing by 28+ on the road tho...but 25-21 since 08... Not sure there's a hell of a lot in it. :\
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Re: NFL Week 12

It seems to keep a pretty similar % all the way thru att... ...in fact, it's dead even since 08, and 41-44-1 since 09... [That's the 9 points or less] 55-33-4 since 05 after losing by 28+ on the road tho...but 25-21 since 08... Not sure there's a hell of a lot in it. :\
Thanks, T. The important thing today is that it went 2-0. :clap
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Re: NFL Week 12

It is a measure of my brilliance that I took this at -6.5 when I could have waited and gotten SD at -4. :rollin Good news is Buffalo and Arizona covered for me...
This actually is the measure of my brilliance...at HT, I took Denver +3 for the second half, so I lost a little money but not my full stake. Second weekend in a row I've done that at HT and avoided a bigger loss. What convinced me was watching Norv Turner on the sideline and watching his team underperform again, especially allowing Tebow to lead them to a TD in 30 seconds prior to HT...I thought, "This guy's an idiot...and I've had a good day, so I'm cutting out." If SD had won with a TD in OT, I'd have pushed the second half play and lost the full stake at -6.5...
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Re: NFL Week 12 Sure hope I didn't talk you out of the Chiefs, att... ...Pits offense was simply awful. :puke [in fact, about the only 2 times I've been on them all year v. KC and Indi they've been the same...] Speaking of awful...SD... ...they've played one team...ONE team...ONE team in the top 15 for total defense!! :eek They scored 21 @ NYJ (8th), but 7 from a fumble return, and just under 280 total yards. It's not all that often anymoer that I actually suggest a play, but SD @ Jax under 40 for next Monday night looks a good TD too high. (I know 40 is the new 37...which in turn was the new 34, but still! :lol )

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Re: NFL Week 12

Hoping this bet is going to be my salvation over the rest of the season. Where's there's a touchdown or larger dog in a game I am taking the dog to have the last timeout - Bet24 have each team at 1.91 for all 3 matches today - they were the only ones I looked at. Reasoning being it's normally the team who are losing who take the last timeouts to stop the clock when chasing the game, so I am seeing it as almost getting 1.91 for a big favourite to win the game, if you follow.
I was just 2/4 for this this weekend, but on the whole I definitely think there's some mileage in the system. Of the 15 matches since Thursday, 11 of them have seen the losing side take the final timeout. 73.33% s/r with 54.55% needed for breaking even. Obviously there's then the need to correctly select the winning team, but if you've got a fancy and the team's a massive favourite.... NE -21 v IND next week for example.... knowing you can get 10/11 for the Colts to call the last timeout seems blummin' good to me?
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Re: NFL Week 12 Houston -9.5 @ 2.54 :@ Lead by 10 points at half time with Jacksonville scoring off a fumble return once again. Then with their second string QB going out, not much in the passing game from then on, and did not score in the second half, but the Jags scored with a FG, to end up a 7 point winner NY Jets -13.5 @ 2.68 :@ They are for the tip. Managing to get back to tie it 14-14 at half time and then scoring a TD early, they could not go on with it and were somewhat fortunate to win in the end by 4 points Atlanta -13.5 @ 2.65 :@ Lead 17-0 at half time and then did not come out to play in the second half. Minnesota scores 2 TDs including one off a 4 and 13, 39 yards out, and then Atlanta scored a TD to secure the win but not the pick Pittsburg -13.5 @ 2.33 :@ They were complacent and did not kick on from their defence getting 3 INTs. Lead by 7 points at half time and then allowed a FG without scoring themselves, to win by 4 points in the end. A weekend of what could have been and some poor offensive displays. Record: 39-47 (+9.47) New Orleans -13.5 @ 3.05 centrebet New Orleans are fresh off a bye and a chance to move further ahead of Atlanta in their division as like them to take apart an inconsistent Giants side. QB Brees averages 319 yards per game, and as his OL has not allowed a sack in their last two games, and like him to tear apart this Giants secondary that allows 239 yards per game, but gave up 258 passing yards (2 TDs and 3 INTs) to Philly's QB Young last week and 242 passing yards to SF's QB Smith (1 TD and 1 INT) the week before. These two QB's are nowhere as good as Brees and expect him to put 300+ yards on them. They also average 118 yards on the ground while the Giants allow 123 yards per game, so they should have some success here. NO has scored at least 27 points in each of their 4 home games,and can see them scoring at least this much here. The NY Giants average 281 passing yards per game and Manning has been in qood form of late, but with the Saints having had extra time to prepare for him, like his numbers to be lower than usual. NO allow 240 passing yards per game and should get CB Patterson back, while LB Vilma also should return, and like him to have some success here, getting to Manning . The Giants have no run game going right now, which should see the Saints blitzing quite often, as Manning has shown he can be wayward when under pressure. NO have won their last two games after a bye: 48-27 and 34-19, an should score points here, while the Giants do not have a good record in NO as they have lost their three game there, with two of them 45-7 and 48-27. On Monday night, can see some fireworks from Brees on this Giants defence.

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Re: NFL Week 12

I was just 2/4 for this this weekend, but on the whole I definitely think there's some mileage in the system. Of the 15 matches since Thursday, 11 of them have seen the losing side take the final timeout. 73.33% s/r with 54.55% needed for breaking even. Obviously there's then the need to correctly select the winning team, but if you've got a fancy and the team's a massive favourite.... NE -21 v IND next week for example.... knowing you can get 10/11 for the Colts to call the last timeout seems blummin' good to me?
I do wonder if there is an upper limit tho... ...in that when Indi are 30 points down, do they bother calling a TO? I mean, does it all then become a bit random again? For example...(I could be wrong here)...but it doesn't look like any TO's were called at all in the 2H of the NO/Indi smashing a few weeks back...leaving NO as the last team to call one just before HT... ...and, same week, KC won 28-0 @ Oakland, and were the last team to take a TO with about 9 mins to play... ...and, same week, Houston pumped Tenn, and took the last TO with about 6 mins to go... ...and, same week, Dallas belted SL and called the last TO of the game early in the 3rd... (:lol Sorry, I didn't intend to come across all so very smart-arsed here! :$ ...I was just looking at those results on the fly) I do like your thinking :ok...I just think maybe that it may be a little bit more difficult than first thought...ie. picking the winner of a relatively close game... :\
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Re: NFL Week 12

I do wonder if there is an upper limit tho... ...in that when Indi are 30 points down, do they bother calling a TO? I mean, does it all then become a bit random again? For example...(I could be wrong here)...but it doesn't look like any TO's were called at all in the 2H of the NO/Indi smashing a few weeks back...leaving NO as the last team to call one just before HT... ...and, same week, KC won 28-0 @ Oakland, and were the last team to take a TO with about 9 mins to play... ...and, same week, Houston pumped Tenn, and took the last TO with about 6 mins to go... ...and, same week, Dallas belted SL and called the last TO of the game early in the 3rd... (:lol Sorry, I didn't intend to come across all so very smart-arsed here! :$ ...I was just looking at those results on the fly) I do like your thinking :ok...I just think maybe that it may be a little bit more difficult than first thought...ie. picking the winner of a relatively close game... :\
No apologies needed. I don't keep historical data - my PC is way too prehistoric to store anything substantial... I think I might put poker on the backburner tonight and have a look over this season
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Re: NFL Week 12

Sure hope I didn't talk you out of the Chiefs, att...
No, it was just that I'd had such a good week (+5 units), that I didn't fancy ending on a losing note. I do this every year...whatever I don't play wins. My two angles this year are now 16-12; I'm 11-12. Five times I've elected to swerve...all winners. Oh well.
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Re: NFL Week 12

No apologies needed. I don't keep historical data - my PC is way too prehistoric to store anything substantial... I think I might put poker on the backburner tonight and have a look over this season
I tell you what I did think today (and tbh, on Thurs Thanksgiving)... ...QB completion numbers in games they 'will' get beaten easily. [i know there aren't all that many books that offer...] ...but watching Eli today (and Stafford on Thurs) get super soft coverages late in halves...and most of the last quarter even if the game is 'unwinnable'... ...seems the play of the day [as it were] is a short, easy completion to the RB. Just wonder if that's a situation that could be exploited? Nice hit again bc. :ok
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