NFL Week 12

[allthethings]

I took a knee-jerk SD -6.5 when the odds were first posted. I have to think that, as surprisingly mediocre that SD has turned out to be, eventually Denver is going to find itself down by 14 points and we'll see the Tebow experiment crash and burn. He has showed some real winning play when down in the last five minutes, but he's not ideally suited to falling behind early. It's a divisional matchup, which suggests a close game, especially with a defense as solid as Denver's, but I'm positive Tebow is going to lose 41-3 one of these days, so why not to a team who has to win the rest of its games to qualify for the playoffs? SD after this has two games you might call winnable, then Baltimore at home, then Detroit away and Oakland at home...this game against Denver, home against a QB who can't throw, is one they absolutely have to win.

[Rob the I ty]

Re: NFL Week 12 Well these teams played earlier in the season while SD were on a 3 game winning streak. The Chargers were up 26-10 before Tebow came in and Tebow came within a 2 point conversion of tying it at 26. It seems logical, Chargers get up by double digits but they already have this season vs Tebow and almost blew it. The Chargers played pretty well last week vs the Bears so I do think they're getting better but Denver is playing with belief atm.

[Rob the I ty]

Re: NFL Week 12 Detroit +7 @1.80 and ML @3.20 bet365 This is the biggest Thanksgiving day game in Detroit in ages. The Lions pass rush has underachieved somewhat this season, Suh hasn't been as dominant though he does get double teamed on almost every snap. The Packers OLine is starting to show some cracks Rodgers has been sacked 13 times in his past 4. And Rodgers was knocked out in Detroit last season, it was the Packers last loss 7-3. Detroit can bring the heat with their front 4 to disrupt the Packers passing offense a little, while they can safely keep 7 in coverage. Without Starks most likely I don't trust Grant or Kuhn to run at all, Starks is really their only viable runner. Without a running game the Lions won't have to worry about dropping so many players into coverage. Stafford and co have the passing offense to cause the Packer defense problems. The Packers give up plenty of yards and the Lions have proven to be very good in the red zone. The emotion of the crowd will keep the Lions defense in the game and I do expect their offense to move the ball. If they keep turn overs to minimum they have a decent chance to win out right.

[Rob the I ty]

Re: NFL Week 12 Baltimore -3 @1.80 @Bet365 The 49ers have played solid football all year and they might be on par with the Ravens. However short week the 49ers coming east, playing a Ravens team that is definitely more desperate for wins I like the Ravens. Battle of the Harbaughs so I expect a very physical game. I still don't trust Alex Smith in this spot and the 49ers haven't faced a good defense or better yet a good rush defense since Week 3 @Cincy where they won 13-8. The Ravens can take them out of their element unlike previous opponents. Offensively the Ravens can be diverse in getting the ball to Rice, a dependable target like Boldin and a deep threat like Smith. This might be the only time other than the Eagles game (a game the Eagles really dominated for the most part) that a team can force the 49ers to play catch up.

[AGurv]

Re: NFL Week 12 NFL 2011-2012 Overall 21W-15L-1P +3.37 units (58.33%) Happy Thanksgiving everyone! Greenbay -6 to win 1 unit @ 5dimes Cowboys -7 (-115) to win 1 unit @ 5dimes Ravens -3 (-135) to win 1 unit @ 5dimes All favorites today.

[TazaD]

Re: NFL Week 12 With you all the way att...line now 6 and dropping...while things can always go wrong, no doubt...but 5.5 would be one of the softest lines of the year imo. I'll definately be onboard. Just one for today, in what looks to be a pretty tight few games... Stafford OVER 298.5 (1.87 @ Centrebet) Green Bay pass D is ranked 31st overall, sure because they are in front a lot...but also (equal) 6th worst for ypp...despite having played a very soft schedule (of QB's at least!) The only half decent QB who has missed out is Ryan...4 other QB's have been in the top 13 for yards...Freeman (yep, 13th), threw for 342 last week, Rivers has thrown for 385, Newton 432 and Brees 419. The rest 22nd or worst... Just a word of warning about the Dallas game...teams are 3-12 SU/ats (Av. loss 7.5) any Thursday off an OT on Sunday. Good luck guys. :cheers

[blackcrow]

Re: NFL Week 12 Green Bay -9.5 @ 2.54 centrebet GB will look to Rodgers once again to lead the way even though Detroit has a good pass defence, they do struggle to stop the run, allowing 134 rushing yards per game. In Detroit's kast 3 home games, they have allowed 280 passing yards to Carolina's Newton (who had 1 TD and 4 INTs) as well as 137 rushing yards in the 49-35 win over Carolina, as well as allowing 218 passing yards to Atlanta's QB Ryba and 129 rushing yards in the 23-16 home loss to Atlanta, and allowing 125 passing yards as well as 203 rushing yards in the 25-19 loss to San Francisco. Expect Starks, if he plays, and Grant, to open up the secondary for Rodgers to find his receivers, and continue their pointscoring where they have scored 35+ points in their last 3 games. Detroit can score, provided their Stafford does not give up INTs as he has thrown 6 INTs in the last two weeks and the Packers secondary are always looking for an INT. He has 10 INTs to go with his 25 TDs (had 5 TDs and 2 INTs in the win over Carolina) and expect them to double team WR Johnson who is his main go-to guy. Detroit struggle to run the ball, despite Smith doing well against Carolina, and given that this Packers rush defence is pretty good, doubt that Stafford can keep up with Rodgers here. The Packers have a decent rushing game while the Lions don't, as well as a better defence to stop the run. While the Detroit secondary is good, so is the Packers one, since all the teams they have faced had had to pass the ball in the second half to try and stay in touch with them, so the number do get skewed. Rodgers is more reliable than Stafford, and has many more legitimate threats to aim for. Dallas -9.5 @ 2.27 centrebet Dallas have won their last 3 games, as Romo has thrown 8 TDs with no INTs in these game and like him to do well here, as the Miami secondary allows 251 passing yards per game. Dallas also run for 122 yards per game and though Miami has a decent rush defence that allows 99 yards per game, they face a good RB in Murray who has done well for them this season. Though Miami has allowed just 3 points to Kansas, 9 points to Washington and 8 points to Buffalo, they face a much more balanced and potent offence that has scored 18, 30, 34, 23 and 44 points in theri 5 home games. Miami has picked up their offence as Moor has 6 TDs with 1 INT in the last 3 games, as they have scored 31, 20 and 35 points, but they are up against a Dallas defence that has allowed 227 passing yards and 101 rushing yards per game, and have allowed less than 17 points in 4 of their 5 home games this season. Both teams have won 3 straight but Dallas are the better side and like them to show it here Baltimore -6.5 @ 2.26 centrebet Like Baltimore to beat a 49ers side that has to cross the country on a short week to prepare for a bruising battle with the Ravens. Both teams have very good rush defences, and though San Fran has accumualetd better rushing numbers, doubt that they do much here as both sides should stuff the run. Believe that Flacco is a better QB than Smith while Baltimore has the better secondary, allowing 211 passing yards compared to 249 passing yards per game by San Fran. Smith will get pressured by the Baltimore pass rush and has shown to be easily flustered and forced into mistakes when under pressure to release Record: 37-42 (+11.67)

[Delmarva]

Re: NFL Week 12 Thurs 24-Nov-11 1~Dallas [wish it was Miami, but its not]

[jpffc]

Re: NFL Week 12 Detroit + 7.5 1.50 10/10 B365 At the start of the day theyw were at + 7 at 1.90 and in the last 5 mins ive seen them at + 4.5 @ 1.90 and now + 4 @ 1.90. The -4 looks really good on Green Bay now but it looks to much of an obvious bet so I have chosen Detroit + 7.5 to keep it close and stay within one TD. Massive game and home crowd should hopefully keep it tight. Green bay were amazing when I backed them last on the Monday night but I didnt touch last weeks game against Tampa Bay because I had a gut feeling Tampa could get within the - 14 and they did. Its big to be going against the packers but hopefully Detroit make a game of it and take advantage of the packers shaky defence but at the same time keep their amazing attack to win by ust one TD. Be nice to get this one to move into the second game in the + :hope

[jpffc]

Re: NFL Week 12

Detroit + 7.5 1.50 10/10 B365 At the start of the day theyw were at + 7 at 1.90 and in the last 5 mins ive seen them at + 4.5 @ 1.90 and now + 4 @ 1.90. The -4 looks really good on Green Bay now but it looks to much of an obvious bet so I have chosen Detroit + 7.5 to keep it close and stay within one TD. Massive game and home crowd should hopefully keep it tight. Green bay were amazing when I backed them last on the Monday night but I didnt touch last weeks game against Tampa Bay because I had a gut feeling Tampa could get within the - 14 and they did. Its big to be going against the packers but hopefully Detroit make a game of it and take advantage of the packers shaky defence but at the same time keep their amazing attack to win by ust one TD. Be nice to get this one to move into the second game in the + :hope

:@:@Detroit +7.5 Then I tried to cover with Green Bay - 17 and Detroit score a pointless TD at the end :@:@

[Samba_SamPa]

Re: NFL Week 12 Hoping this bet is going to be my salvation over the rest of the season. Where's there's a touchdown or larger dog in a game I am taking the dog to have the last timeout - Bet24 have each team at 1.91 for all 3 matches today - they were the only ones I looked at. Reasoning being it's normally the team who are losing who take the last timeouts to stop the clock when chasing the game, so I am seeing it as almost getting 1.91 for a big favourite to win the game, if you follow. 5pts last timeout called by Dolphins (v Cowboys) @ 1.91 :hope

[Samba_SamPa]

Re: NFL Week 12 Taken 3 for the later games. Minnesota last timeout @ Atlanta Cleveland last timeout @ Cincinatti Buffalo last timeout @ NY Jets 5pts @ 1.91 on each

[Rob the I ty]

Re: NFL Week 12 Lions aren't ready for prime time, very professional game by the Packers waited for Detroit to make mistakes and then capitalized.

[Samba_SamPa]

Re: NFL Week 12 Good clock management from the Cowboys there. Oops :) Happy to see how Sunday's 3 go - I think my theory is sound, will find out over rest of season

[jpffc]

Re: NFL Week 12 49ers @ 2.50 Sky Bet Reasoning: I always lose when I bet on Baltimore :lol. Seattlle and Jacksonville are still fresh in the mind :cry. 9-1 49ers v Baltimore who are 7-3 and I just feel Its a decent price for a team playing consistent against a team who could do anything. 2 favorites in today allready, hopefully an upset here :hope

[allthethings]

Re: NFL Week 12

49ers @ 2.50 Sky Bet Reasoning: I always lose when I bet on Baltimore :lol. Seattlle and Jacksonville are still fresh in the mind :cry. 9-1 49ers v Baltimore who are 7-3 and I just feel Its a decent price for a team playing consistent against a team who could do anything. 2 favorites in today allready, hopefully an upset here :hope

I guess you mean straight up, because Dallas was a spread loser.

[twister180]

Re: NFL Week 12 i have no misssed field goal at 1.91 baltimo vs 49rs betfair

[jpffc]

Re: NFL Week 12

I guess you mean straight up' date=' because Dallas was a spread loser.[/quote'] Ive bet on them 3 or 4 times I think. Had them to cover the line -14 or something against Jacksonville and they lost that game. Had them in a treble to beat Seattle. The first two came in and looked light a straight forward win at 1.30 and they lost. Amongst that I bet the Steelers to beat them at home and they got up in final seconds with a td. Very annoying team for me and lost me a lot because of their up and down performances. And now they turn up tonight and are winning at the moment. The team confuses me :\ just dont get them. They will probably lose next week.

[JohnnyGG]

Re: NFL Week 12 Dallas did a strategic kick at 0:03, but too bad it did not cover for me. Nice game though.

[Jeremy Wendell]

Re: NFL Week 12 can see the Ravens end up No2 seed in the AFC and making the conference final.Patriots have a slightly easier run in making them hot fav for top seed.Think the Ravens are beginning to look good,have already beaten the Steelers twice and with a little more consistency could end up in the Superbowl.Jets and Raiders banker double for me in week 12.

[allthethings]

Re: NFL Week 12 A very good angle over the years is to play on teams the week after they get blown out on the road...losing by more than 4 touchdowns...or scoring less than 10 points on the road, regardless of the final score. This season it has been poor, 7-10 so far...but I remain committed to it. The trouble is that week after week your money's on really bad teams, or mediocre teams in a bad run. This week: Buffalo +9.5 @ NY Jets Arizona +2.5 @ St. Louis Rams @ Kansas City +10 vs Pittsburgh

[TazaD]

Re: NFL Week 12 I wouldn't get your hopes up of making it rich quick with those situations mate... ...413-357-24 after scoring 9 or less on the road since '89; ...137-107-10 after a 28+ point loss. But, yeah, certainly a 'winning' %, so the 7-10 is likely to turn around. Good news... SD -5.5 (1.95 @ TAB) Not much else I can say really...seems half of us agree ;) that once Denver fall behind they're boned... SD know if they don't win this game it's over for the season, and with them losing 5 straight plus Tebow mania, it's a very soft line indeed. NE @ Philli under 50 (1.91 @ Cent) League: 0-7 under (Av. total 43.9...av. score 38.4) home 3+ dog off a SU and 10+ ats win as road 3+ dog if they allowed

[TazaD]

Re: NFL Week 12 Grossman OVER 210.5 passing (1.83 @ Lads) He's gone over this number in all but 2 games he's played so far...both against teams who allow less yards than Seattle. (Phil and SL)... ...and Seattle have given up 250+ to Kob, who has very similar numbers to Grossman...also 250+ to Flacco, and 290+ to Ryan. Moss back for the Redskins, and this looks a very low line indeed. Good luck guys. :ok

[Samba_SamPa]

Re: NFL Week 12 I think I am going to end the season in profit - I'm having a gazillion points on the overs here :loon

[TazaD]

Re: NFL Week 12 :p :lol Carolina @ Indi OVER 660.5 offensive yards (1.80 @ 365) Was eyeing off the over @ 44, but not prepared to take any higher... ...however, I think this is the perfect solution. Both teams have played tough schedules and will be happy to face D's as bad as each others! Indi have played just 2 teams who are 23rd or worse in total D!!...355 yards v. KC and 318 v. TB...[Caro are 27th] ...but they will probably only need about 200 for this one to get up. Carolina have played 5 teams who are 19th or worse [indi 29th]... ...405 v. Min, 381 v. NO, 543 v. Chic, 477 v. Zona [28th], 475 v. GB [30th]... ...throw in the 409 last week in the dome @ Det, and it's really quite likely that the Panthers get a very large chunk of these yards on their own.

[blackcrow]

Re: NFL Week 12 Green Bay -9.5 @ 2.54 :D Dallas -9.5 @ 2.27 :( Baltimore -6.5 @ 2.26 :D Record: 39-43 (+13.47) Houston -9.5 @ 2.54 centrebet Houston averages 238 passing yards and 158 rushing yards per game, and with the return of WR Johnson, and both Foster and Tate running the ball, like them to dominate this good Jacksonville defence that allows 189 passing yards and 11 rushing yards per game. Houston have scord 30+ points in 4 of their last 4 games as well as 33+ points in 3 of their last 4 road games, and though the Jags are not allowing much, they have not faced a balanced offence like this one. Houston has a very good defence to complement their offence, as they allow 178 passing yards and 91 rushing yards per game. They have allowed 14 points or less in 7 of their 10 games, as well as in their last 4 away games, so believe they will contain this Jags offence that averages 129 passing yards and 120 rushing yards per game, and have scored 14 points or less in 7 of their 10 games. NY Jets -13.5 @ 2.68 centrebet The Jets have averaged 218 passing yards and 97 rushing yards per game, and like them to do well on this Buffalo defence that has allowed 250 passing yards and 122 rushing yards per game. They have scored 24+ points in 4 of their 5 home games, while Buffalo have allowed 27, 44 and 35 points in their last 3 games. Like the Jets defence to contain this Buffalo offence that is missing their main running back while QB Fitzpatrick has 11 INTs in his last 6 games. The Jets have allowed 11 and 17 points in their last two games as their defence looks to tighten it up while Buffalo have scored 11 points or less in their last 3 games. The Jets should win this easily as they did beat them 27-11 on the road three weeks ago and not much has changed for the better for Buffalo since then. Atlanta -13.5 @ 2.65 centrebet Atlanta averages 248 passing yards and 121 rushing yards per game as they have scored between 23 and 31 points in their last 5 games. Minnesota allows 259 passing yards per game, and expect QB Ryan, who tends to play well at home, to exploit this poor secondary, while the Minnesota rush defence allows 101 rushing yards per game. The concern for Minnesota is that they have allowed between 27 and 45 points in 4 of their last 5 games, and going to Atlanta is a difficult match up for them. Minnesota averages 181 passing yards and 143 rushing yards per game, but they have a rookie QB playing in a tough environment and are without one of the best running backs in the game. They will find it difficult to score here on this Atlanta defence that has allowed 17 points or less in 4 of their last 5 games, as they allow 254 passing yards per game and 85 rushing yards per game, they do not have the QB to exploit this average secondary, while expect them to blitz Ponder regularly, given that there is no Peterson to run the ball.

[allthethings]

Re: NFL Week 12

I wouldn't get your hopes up of making it rich quick with those situations mate... ...413-357-24 after scoring 9 or less on the road since '89; ...137-107-10 after a 28+ point loss. But, yeah, certainly a 'winning' %, so the 7-10 is likely to turn around.

Hey Taza, since you seem to have all the numbers handy...what are the figures if you only go back to 2000, say?

[-James M-]

Re: NFL Week 12 Micheal Bush over 90.5 Rushing @20/23, 1 unit Bush has been a monster in the absence of McFadden this year and has gone 100+ in last 5 games now. Bears run D has been giving up more than 90 on average and I can see Bush taking another 100+ game with the Raiders struggling to take the ball down the field in the air. Greg Olsen over 43.5 receiving @20/23, 1 unit The Cam Newton inspired Panthers offence has been one of the most prolific in picking up the yardage this year (5th), much of which has been through the air(8th). Olsen is the second choice target after Smith and has shown this season he is capable of making this line in one play! Matt Ryan over 270.5 passing @4/5, 1 unit The Falcons are facing a series of must win games to make their post season dreams a reality. They have to go big tonight and will be looking for Ryan to come up with the goods as the Vikings are fairly competent at dealing with the run (10th). Viking's D is 28th against the Pass and i can see Ryan going 300+ tonight. Micheal Turner over 86.5 rushing @4/5, 1 unit Despite the Viking's run D not being poor (as stated above) they are still giving up 100+ per game. While I think this could be a tight line, Turner has gone over it 6/10 times and when he has gone over it he has smashed it (5/6 being 100+). Turner is one of my favorite running backs and when you watch him you know any play, any down he could break off a huge play. GL all! :hope

[jpffc]

Re: NFL Week 12

	PIT Steelers -10.5
	SD Chargers -5.0

NY Jets -9.5 Treble Odds 7.27 B365 COYW FTID

[blackcrow]

Re: NFL Week 12 Houston -9.5 @ 2.54 NY Jets -13.5 @ 2.68 Atlanta -13.5 @ 2.65 Pittsburg -13.5 @ 2.33 centrebet Pittsburgh average 273 passing yards and 110 rushing yards per game as they have scored 23+ points in 3 of their last 4 games. They face a Kansas defence that allows 230 passing yards and 136 rushing yards per game, and have allowed 31, 17 and 34 points in their last 3 games. Kansas averages 186 passing yards and 124 rushing yards per game and have scored 10 points or less in their last 3 games. They will find it tough scoring on this very good Steelers defence that allows 183 passing yards per game, as well as 97 rushing yards per game, and have allowed 17 points or less in 7 of their 10 games. The Chiefs were poor against the Patriots last week and are now up against a very good defence that will blitz the QB all day. Record: 39-43 (+13.47)