England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Nov 18-19

[Shipsupstreets]

Friday 18 November 2011	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
	Tamworth v Kettering Town (19:45 GMT)	10/11	5/2	3	105.32 %
	Saturday 19 November 2011	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
	AFC Telford United v Mansfield Town (15:00 GMT)	7/3	7/3	5/4	104.42 %
	Alfreton Town v Gateshead (15:00 GMT)	7/2	13/5	5/6	104.30 %
	Barrow v York City (15:00 GMT)	9/4	13/5	6/5	104.19 %
	Braintree Town v Forest Green Rovers (15:00 GMT)	6/5	13/5	7/3	103.26 %
	Cambridge United v Luton Town (15:00 GMT)	17/10	12/5	7/4	102.95 %
	Ebbsfleet United v Darlington (15:00 GMT)	5/4	12/5	5/2	102.43 %
	Grimsby Town v Newport County (15:00 GMT)	21/20	12/5	14/5	103.69 %
	Hayes & Yeading v Kidderminster Harriers (15:00 GMT)	21/10	13/5	5/4	104.07 %
	Southport v Bath City (15:00 GMT)	7/10	14/5	9/2	103.03 %
	Wrexham v Lincoln City (15:00 GMT)	8/13	14/5	5	104.56 %
	Fleetwood Town v Stockport County (17:45 GMT)	1/2	10/3	6	104.03 %

[godofhorses]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Nov 18-19 I haven't posted for a while as nobody was posting info that i was looking for. An example of what should be posted. There is also another away team with similar problems. Does anyone know who? A Little quiz for you! Tamworth v Kettering - A lot of kettering players up for transfer, wage reductions and disputes. Tamworth have also beaten them 3/3. Max Bet - 4/5 Ladbrokes

[Darran]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Nov 18-19 I think you can get bigger that 4/5 or you could when I checked earlier. The Kettering players have been on the transfer list for a while now so that is old news. I have seen it mentioned that players will be leaving and if that it is the case then I might get involved, but I find little value in that price on Tamworth to be honest. For me Kettering have been playing better of late although they werent great against Sutton, but then Tamworth were just as bad against a worse side in Hinckley. I think its a game to be careful with and if Tamworth do win I will let them win at that price unless some more news comes out before Friday night. Also Id be interested as to what info you are looking for exactly?

[Shipsupstreets]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Nov 18-19

I haven't posted for a while as nobody was posting info that i was looking for. An example of what should be posted. There is also another away team with similar problems. Does anyone know who? A Little quiz for you! Tamworth v Kettering - A lot of kettering players up for transfer, wage reductions and disputes. Tamworth have also beaten them 3/3. Max Bet - 4/5 Ladbrokes

Thanks for the example of what should be posted. I think if you had been following the threads here you'd have seen plenty of discussion about Kettering this season, and plenty of winning tips for and against, depending on the context of the match. The Kettering situation off the field is dire but has been for weeks, with some players not paid for a month and a half. Meanwhile, Stimson has been doing a devil of a job on the field by putting out spirited sides that are occasionally competitive - all of which has been discussed here. As addpea says, until there is a mass exodus - which may well be coming, given the way the club is being run - nothing has really changed. A quiz for you... which irregular visitor to this thread has had a max bet at 4/5 when he could have had 10/11 yesterday morning, and 5/6 as of now (1.85 available on Betfair)?

[Darran]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Nov 18-19 Ive had a look back through godofhorses previous posts and the last time he posted anything in a non-league thread was the famous Weymouth v Rushden game a couple of years ago so I suspect he is hoping it is going to be a repeat of that. At the moment it isnt going to be like that to my knowledge. I remember the massive gamble on Eastbourne when they went to Chester with it being suggested they werent going to have a team available. Turned out Chester had a pretty strong side out and were winning the game before the game had to be abandoned so these things dont always come of. Also as Ships has mentioned the fact you are tipping at a shorter price than you can get is pretty poor.

[tadley]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Nov 18-19 Tamworth v Kettering I'm not tempted by odds on for Tamworth for the simple reason that despite their "problems" Kettering have found the back of the net in nine of their last 10 league games. It is therefore highly likely that Tamworth will have to score at least two to win. For that reason a better bet may be to take the over 2.5 goals or both to score at around the same price which looks a more likely outcome.

[Darran]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Nov 18-19 Heres the latest from Mark Stimson on the Kettering stuff http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/15775130.stm

[dj rob]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Nov 18-19 Cambridge is 3.0 (Pinnacle) to beat Luton...AH0 2.1. This looks too high even if Luton can be considered as a playoff or promotion contender, but away from home they won only three (and 50% draws, once lost, 0-3 at York)...Cambridge have been in a good shape recently and are the strongest home team so far (6-2-1 16:6). Moreover they beat Luton 1-0 on their ground in September (not undeserved, due to better second half)...I think I´ll put a little money on this one...Cambridge should get a draw at least. Cambridge AH0 2.1 Pinnacle 3/10

[Shipsupstreets]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Nov 18-19

Tamworth v Kettering I'm not tempted by odds on for Tamworth for the simple reason that despite their "problems" Kettering have found the back of the net in nine of their last 10 league games. It is therefore highly likely that Tamworth will have to score at least two to win. For that reason a better bet may be to take the over 2.5 goals or both to score at around the same price which looks a more likely outcome.

I agree with this tadley. Spreadex are going 2.85 total goals, and that looks a buy. Tamworth were tight early season, but they've lost the ability to keep clean sheets (one in nine league games), and in the last 11 league games, they've only made up below two goals on one occasion. Kettering have been reasonably tight away from home but they do score and I can see a moderate chance of a decent profit.

[Hotpot Kid]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Nov 18-19 Slim pickings in the BSP this week as far as I'm concerned. Funny how some weeks 5 or 6 games look of interest and other weeks hardly anything appeals. If forced to pick a team to bet it would probably be Barrow, the price is reasonable but I wouldn't be that confident. The double on Gateshead and Fleetwood pays around 7/4 but again I have some nagging doubts. Good luck if you get involved.

[sportxtipster]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Nov 18-19

I haven't posted for a while as nobody was posting info that i was looking for. An example of what should be posted. There is also another away team with similar problems. Does anyone know who? A Little quiz for you! Tamworth v Kettering - A lot of kettering players up for transfer, wage reductions and disputes. Tamworth have also beaten them 3/3. Max Bet - 4/5 Ladbrokes

I will not try to be ironic and I will say directly: you do not know what you are talking about! "An example of what should be posted." Please come back here when another team will sell all its players and sell that as a good tip! I like these fellows that are living under the impression that they invented the wheel!

[Darran]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Nov 18-19 Alfreton v Gateshead As I have mentioned a few times, the home side look as if they are really going to struggle to stay in the Blue Square Premier this season. The two big problems they have is that they struggle to keep 11 men on the pitch and also they can't defend. In six of their last eight league games they have conceded three or more goals and of course Carlisle put four past them in the FA Cup on Saturday. Gateshead aren't doing quite as well as they were earlier in the season, but are still doing more than well enough to see them beat Alfreton. They had a pretty easy afternoon in the FA Cup last week when beating local rivals Blyth Spartans 2-0 and could well be in for another comfortable afternoon here. Bet365 go 5/6 on an away win which looks good to me and I also think it is worth backing them on the handicap which is available with a few bookies at 2/1. Ebbsfleet v Darlington Yet another former struggling league side travel to Kent to face Ebbsfleet. Last week it was Stockport and the home team scored two late goals to win 2-1 and continue their superb run of form. Darlington may have beaten AFC Telford a couple of weeks ago but that isn't taking much at the moment and they are yet to announce a new manager. There are also rumours that they may be forced into administration at some point so it's safe to say not all is well at the North East club right now. Ebbsfleet have already been backed for this game but 6/5 is still available with Coral and I think that is still a reasonable price. AFC Telford v Mansfield You may remember that I tipped AFC Telford to beat Darlington a couple of weeks ago but they lost yet again, as they did in the FA Cup last week when they put in a shocking effort to lose 4-0 to Chelmsford. The fact is in the league they have only beaten Alfreton and Bath since August and although they generally only seem to be losing by the odd goal, something is clearly missing. Mansfield have been an odd side this season but have only lost once away from home and although they went down to Cambridge in their last match they did put in a good effort. They have had two weeks since that game and have regrouped and refocused as they look to get themselves back up the table. Mansfield are capable of being in the play-off race and this looks a decent game for them to get three points from. Coral are best price at 13/10.

[Darran]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Nov 18-19 Just seen the Kettering team for tonight and the only player missing is Cunnington from what I can tell and I have a feeling he is the player Stimson was talking about. Tamworth may well win tonight but I dont think they are any great value to do so.

[Darran]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Nov 18-19 Kettering take the lead in the 2nd minute which is good news all round I fancy. NB I have not had a bet on the game myself.

[Darran]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Nov 18-19 Well Tamworth backers might get out of jail as Kettering have had their keeper sent off just before ht. No doubt this week they will be able to beat a team with 10 men. They scored the pen and its now 2-1. Good news for goals backers though.

[Darran]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Nov 18-19 Worth adding that Kettering did have a sub keeper on the bench.

[RedDevil92]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Nov 18-19 Are you having a live ticker?

[Darran]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Nov 18-19 Apparently that was Kettering's 10th different player they have had sent off this season.

[Darran]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Nov 18-19

I haven't posted for a while as nobody was posting info that i was looking for. An example of what should be posted. There is also another away team with similar problems. Does anyone know who? A Little quiz for you! Tamworth v Kettering - A lot of kettering players up for transfer, wage reductions and disputes. Tamworth have also beaten them 3/3. Max Bet - 4/5 Ladbrokes

I dont suppose you will come back on here but if you do thanks for your superb info. I hope no one followed him tonight. Well done again on those who backed goals.

[Shipsupstreets]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Nov 18-19 Total goals made up 4 tonight for a 1.15pt profit on the spreads. Good call by tadley on overs.

[Shipsupstreets]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Nov 18-19 With a bit in the bank to play with after last night's Tam/Kett goals trade, I'm taking on a couple of low-risk, slightly contrarian spreads. The first is a sell of Forest Green Rovers' 2nd goal at Braintree Town at 75 (Sporting & Spreadex). Though FGR would have made up once all season away at this mark and even with Reece Styche missing, I still think FGR can exploit Braintree's recent vulnerabilities at the back. Braintree's high-flying days of September may have passed as the goals are going in at the wrong end, and the signing of Dean Wells - Alan Devonshire's defensive CEO for years at Hampton - suggests a change to three at the back, which could add to the defensive confusion at least in the short-term. It's a risky trade, though with limited downside. I also like a buy of Sean Canham's goal minutes at 14 for Bath City with Sporting Index. I think the cup effect will play its part in the game (they have a replay with the Daggers this week), but the need for league points is just as pressing. Canham has been in decent enough form, and since he arrived the team's form as a whole has perked up. Southport are on a massive run, but they do concede at home and if Bath are to notch Canham won't be far away.

[luckotheoirish]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Nov 18-19 Would you really follow a football tip from a guy called godofhorses??

[Shipsupstreets]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Nov 18-19 Handsome day at the office today as both of the contrarian spread plays landed heavily - Canham's goal minutes made up 76 for a 62-point profit, and FGR notched their 2nd in the 27th for a 48-point profit - 110 points up on the day. I've already bagged as much profit so far this season as I'd expect over three full seasons.

[Darran]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Nov 18-19 Wish I was following you on the Spreads Ships as you are having a superb season. As for me it was a disappointing session.

[Carl Iles]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Nov 18-19 Shipupstreets. Fantastic performance. Must admit as a first time caller I would just like to say what a pleasure it is to read the comments of yourself, Labrador Addpea and al. A remarkable amount of information and knowledge of the lower leagues. Nothing much to add but I must say over the years I have had a fair bit of success on the rugby and football spreadbetting but as the spread boys have wised up it is becoming a lot harder. An old work colleague got me into it about 7 years ago and no word of a lie his profit over a 5-6year spell was over 100k. I was less bold but did very well out of his investigations. Rugby was his speciality and often on a small fortune could be made by checking the weather conditions, heavy rain before ko meant a chunky sell and a profit without an egg being passed ! Seriously could write a book about the coups, dramas etc but sadly it would only make sense to the few serious spreadbettors about who ply their trade ! He has now called it a day as a result of a combination of doubling his salary when being made redundant, family commitments and worst of all the companies limiting his bets and allowing him only to ring his bets through. He did open accounts in friends names but they are not stupid and they were quite clever at spotting him. Probably because there are so few winners out there. In the glory years they genuinely used to make quite obvious errors when setting the spreads and good money could be made. Sadly must own up to sneaking a few chunky arbs years ago such was the disparity between the prices set by ig, spreadex and unsporting. Unsporting used to be the real leaders when it came to setting the markets but now I get the impression spreadex seem to set the pace and have far more live games on offer. Anyway enough of the rambling, shipup, one bet I tend to do these days is if I fancy a home time to do well and run in a few goals is to buy that teams goal rush and then on betfair have a bet on the opponents keeping a clean sheet. If they draw a blank then you are covered, one goal is the downer, two goals is usually a small loss but if you can get the big one at 5 and 6 then you are doing well. Anyway keep up the good work. Do fancy Aldershot for this bet against Maidenhead as long as they are not too high. Could be around the 23-26 mark which may need to be also covered with the 1-1 and 1-0. Just think if Aldershot get an early goal then it could get messy as Maidenhead can let in a few.

[Shipsupstreets]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Nov 18-19

Shipupstreets. Fantastic performance. Must admit as a first time caller I would just like to say what a pleasure it is to read the comments of yourself, Labrador Addpea and al. A remarkable amount of information and knowledge of the lower leagues. Nothing much to add but I must say over the years I have had a fair bit of success on the rugby and football spreadbetting but as the spread boys have wised up it is becoming a lot harder. An old work colleague got me into it about 7 years ago and no word of a lie his profit over a 5-6year spell was over 100k. I was less bold but did very well out of his investigations. Rugby was his speciality and often on a small fortune could be made by checking the weather conditions, heavy rain before ko meant a chunky sell and a profit without an egg being passed ! Seriously could write a book about the coups, dramas etc but sadly it would only make sense to the few serious spreadbettors about who ply their trade ! He has now called it a day as a result of a combination of doubling his salary when being made redundant, family commitments and worst of all the companies limiting his bets and allowing him only to ring his bets through. He did open accounts in friends names but they are not stupid and they were quite clever at spotting him. Probably because there are so few winners out there. In the glory years they genuinely used to make quite obvious errors when setting the spreads and good money could be made. Sadly must own up to sneaking a few chunky arbs years ago such was the disparity between the prices set by ig, spreadex and unsporting. Unsporting used to be the real leaders when it came to setting the markets but now I get the impression spreadex seem to set the pace and have far more live games on offer. Anyway enough of the rambling, shipup, one bet I tend to do these days is if I fancy a home time to do well and run in a few goals is to buy that teams goal rush and then on betfair have a bet on the opponents keeping a clean sheet. If they draw a blank then you are covered, one goal is the downer, two goals is usually a small loss but if you can get the big one at 5 and 6 then you are doing well. Anyway keep up the good work. Do fancy Aldershot for this bet against Maidenhead as long as they are not too high. Could be around the 23-26 mark which may need to be also covered with the 1-1 and 1-0. Just think if Aldershot get an early goal then it could get messy as Maidenhead can let in a few.

Welcome to the non-league threads, Carl! Agree about the Shots/Maidenhead play - you wouldn't trust Maidenhead's defence at the moment. It's definitely possible to make the kind of money your friend did in the less popular areas of the betting markets, and I'm sure you'll appreciate how much you make all comes down to how you manage the opportunities that are available. Spread betting is so attractive as it allows you to focus in on one aspect of a team's performance and find a bet that suits. I've been working hard to do that this season with the BlueSQ Prem spreads and - with more good fortune than anyone has a right to expect - the strategy seems to be working okay. A few years back my standard play was a sell of mini-performances, but there are too many goals around at the moment to make that attractive on a regular basis. I still do the bulk of my plays with Sporting as they offer a greater depth of market than Spreadex (third goal times and player goal trades). Though spreads do change in the BlueSQ Prem, the spread firms are a lot less jumpy than the fixed-odds boys, who often shave prices at the first whiff of activity. I look forward to seeing your contributions.