NFL Week Eleven Picks

[AGurv]

NFL 2011-2012 Overall 18W-14L-1P +1.47 units (56.25%) Was a good week for Week 10, went 4-2 Falcons -5.5 to win 1 unit @ 5dimes Falcons should bounce back after a tough loss. Other then the Steelers, this will really be there 2nd tough road game. I think Falcons should win by multiple TD's.

[AGurv]

Re: NFL Week Eleven Picks Miami -2 to win 1 unit @ 5dimes This team is on the up, while Buffalo is going down. As hot as they were, Buffalo was just 1-3 on the road. Steve Johnson is still questionable for Sunday. Buffalo's left tackle is out, and so is the back up left tackle. So they are realigning there O-line which is never a good sign.

[TazaD]

Re: NFL Week Eleven Picks :ok I do like Atlanta... ...but reckon I'll be on the under for both of those games. Speaking of unders...I got Cleveland v. Jax under 36.5 when it first came out... Cleveland v. Jax under 34.5 (1..91 @ Olympic) Both in the top 6 for total D, Browns run D not great, but they will shut Gabbert down completely, and Jags only ran for 41/141 v. a similar Indi run D last week. Jags topped 17 just one time all season (20 v. Cinci with a 80 yard pass on a broken play)... ...and Browns just as bad. Topped 17 one time (27 v. Indi, the 30th ranked overall D). This game will see MJD carry the ball 30+ times, and Cleveland probably punt an equal amount. :D

[blackcrow]

Re: NFL Week Eleven Picks Denver +3.5 @ 2.33 centrebet Since Tebow came in at QB, they have been pounding the ball, where they ran it 55 times against Kansas last week , and have averaged 230 yards per game in the 3 wins of his 4 games that he has started. Not much will change here, but with the Jets off a poor result against New England, going west and playing at altitude, then tough game to prepare for this. The Jets pass defence is pretty good and with Tebow only completing two passes last week, doubt that they will get much going here, but they will continue to pound the ball on the ground. Jets QB Sanchez is erratic and will need to step if they are to win this, as the Denver secodnary does allow 243 yards per game, while they allow 118 yards on the ground. However the Jets have struggled this year to move the ball on the ground, and will be relying on Sanchez to make their offence click. Given his recent form, hard to see him doing this, and if Denver gets their run game going, not only does it wear down the Jets defence, but it also gives their own defence time to prepare for the next series of plays when they have to go out on the field. Not too confident in the Jets to do well here, given their recent form, and like the Broncos to keep this close Record: 31-39 (+5.51)

[Samba_SamPa]

Re: NFL Week Eleven Picks Broncos m/l 1.5pts @ 5/2 (Paddy) Agree with what blackcrow has posted above, and was tempted to take the +3.5 handicap also - but have ultimately decided to go with the home side actually winning the game. However unconventional, the read-option offense that has been implemented for TT is paying dividends. Jets come here from the SNG, on the back of a shellacking at home to their bitter rivals, playing at the Colorado altitude, it just adds up to a tough old game for them imo. For the sake of a FG I'll take the nearly double odds on offer for a win. Plaxico Burress - under 56.5 receiving yards - 4.5pts @ 5/6 Paddy This line looks too high to me. Burress is more of a red zone target, and has only had more than 4 receptions on 1 occasion, and has only covered this line twice in 8 games. Record 16-30 (-9.28)

[WeakestLink]

Re: NFL Week Eleven Picks Denver ML , 3.40 bet365 , 10units ( DEN : NYJ ) : yards per game 318:314 ; yards per game allowed 361:327 ; points per game 21:24 ; points per game allowed 26:22. Passing leaders ( DEN ; NYJ ) : TDs 7:14 , intercepted passes 1:9. Rushing leaders ( DEN : NYJ ) : TDs 5:3. Receiving leaders ( DEN : NYJ ) : TDs 7:6. Injured players for Denver : Knowshon Moreno (out) , Willis McGahee(questionable). Injured players for NY Jets : Jeremy Kerley , Shawn Nelson , La Dainian Tomlinson , Brodney Pool (all out). Denver will have to play without their best rusher , or not. He is questionable for this game. NYJ are playing good but only against weaker teams. I'm affraid Denver is not a weaker team right now. I expect this game to be decided by a single TO , so this be either a 14 points NYJ win , or a close win for Denver. Since Denver don't make many passes they are unlikely to make many turnovers , but NYJ have an intercepted pass on average once per game. So I'll take Denver in a close game.

[jpffc]

Re: NFL Week Eleven Picks TEBOW !!!!!!!!!!! I had a slice on the +6.5 broncos :nana Good work lads on the smaller handicap and the straight win :nana

[TazaD]

Re: NFL Week Eleven Picks Next week is the one I've been waiting for...SD by one million. ;)

[Samba_SamPa]

Re: NFL Week Eleven Picks

Broncos m/l 1.5pts @ 5/2 (Paddy) Plaxico Burress - under 56.5 receiving yards - 4.5pts @ 5/6 Paddy Record 16-30 (-9.28)

Tebow! That is all :lol It wasn't a pretty game in the slightest, but it was entertaining - I couldn't take my eyes off it. 2 x FGs and a TD from an OLman - great backup of Tebow by his Defense. The fella just knows how to win. 4-1 as a starter this season, amazing :lol ... could we see Tebow in the Playoffs? :loon Feel abit sore about the Burress prop - only a very borderline play review call on him getting both tippytoes down on a 13(? maybe more) yard reception took him over. Hardly ever take player props, but had to notice that one last night :eyes Record 17-31 (-10.03)

[GoldenEye]

Re: NFL Week Eleven Picks Green Bay -14 is my best bet of the week. I can see this game stretching out to a 3-4 TD win, there is just no part of the Tampa bay game that can restrict or push the Green Bay team. It could get very ugly.

[Rob the I ty]

Re: NFL Week Eleven Picks Right on Taza, I am wondering if the Broncos defense I playing above their heads just so they prove everyone wrong about tebow.

[Rob the I ty]

Re: NFL Week Eleven Picks Speaking of the Chargers Chicago -3 @1.80 Can't see past the Bears here. They're playing as well anyone aside from GB. The Chargers don't look right they got dominated at home vs the Raiders. Their OLine is in shambles and that doesn't bode well vs a energetic Bear front 4 led by Peppers. The Cover 2 will prevent Rivers' big plays which he hasn't been getting anyway. Also many offenses struggle on the Soldier Field turf especially timing based passing games like the Chargers. The Bears have been dominant at home aside from the Packer game. The Chargers had trouble covering a versatile back like Bush now they get Forte. The Bears are protecting Cutler better each week and he's getting the ball out of his hands. Home field, form and turnovers all favor the Bears that should equal a Bears win

[Rob the I ty]

Re: NFL Week Eleven Picks Minnesota/Oakland Under 45.5 Christian Ponder came down to earth last week @Lambeau, but many rookies would with Dom Capers dialing blitzes. The Vikings OLine along with their protection schemes are helping out the young QB. The Raiders is really playing well they ate up a battered Chargers' OLine last week with 6 sacks. They do struggle againzt the run so I expect Peterson to get his and keep the clock moving. But they will give Ponder problems plus the Vikings dkn't have WRs to trouble the Raiders secondary down field. At home the Vikings defense is infinitely better. The DLine gets off the snap, it's night and day. This should keep Palmer from finding his speedy WRs down field. The only worry is that both team are strong in the red zone but 45 is a high number.

[Rob the I ty]

Re: NFL Week Eleven Picks Also liking the under 45.5 in the NYG and Philly game, no Vick and the Eagles offense isn't quite clicking. But their defense is a good matchup for the Giants because their DBs can limit Nicks, Cruz and Manningham.

[allthethings]

Re: NFL Week Eleven Picks

Green Bay -14 is my best bet of the week. I can see this game stretching out to a 3-4 TD win' date=' there is just no part of the Tampa bay game that can restrict or push the Green Bay team. It could get very ugly.[/quote'] Classic sandwich game. Green Bay just hammered a divisional opponent, and in four days they travel to Detroit, another divisional opponent, on Thanksgiving Day. They also have a defense that gives up 350+ yards a game. Watch Tampa Bay give the Packers a game here.

[TazaD]

Re: NFL Week Eleven Picks

Right on Taza' date=' I am wondering if the Broncos defense I playing above their heads just so they prove everyone wrong about tebow.[/quote'] Mate, I think the main point is that they haven't had to... Miami and KC simply cannot score...Jets, while mid-table in scoring, certainly aren't explosive by any stretch... I'm just waiting (no more :)) until they play a team who can score and put scoreboard pressure on...basically force Tebow to throw, and I'm pretty confident what the result will be. Det 45-10...Oak 17-7 up at HT before Denver pulled their one and only trump card out at the half to catch the Oakland D by surprise... Chic by a decent margin would be a good result this week to get a (slightly un-necessary I suspect) soft line for next week. :p But for this week... Atl v. Tenn under 44 (1.95 @ PP) League: 1-10 under (Av. total 41.5...av. score 33.3!) road 3+ dog off a 21+ ats win as any dog, if opp last threw for 300+ yards. [Tenn] Falcons really are going back to being a run first team...and this will be the best D they have faced all year. Their run D is solid tho and should be able to contain C-J, and take out a 26 point effort at home v. Balt, Tenn have struggled to score 17+ v. solid run D's so far. No late flurries this week, total just too high. Miami v. Buff under 43 (1.95 @ PP) League: 1-8 under (Av. total 39.9...av. score 35.6) road (-3 to +3) off a 21+ ats loss on the road, with

[AGurv]

Re: NFL Week Eleven Picks Chargers +3.5 to win 1 unit @ 5dimes Eagles +5.5 to win 1 unit @ 5dimes

[GoldenEye]

Re: NFL Week Eleven Picks

Classic sandwich game. Green Bay just hammered a divisional opponent' date=' and in four days they travel to Detroit, another divisional opponent, on Thanksgiving Day. They also have a defense that gives up 350+ yards a game. Watch Tampa Bay give the Packers a game here.[/quote'] I dont think so, at the end of the day Green Bay are an exceptional attacking team and Tampa Bay are just very amateur. The Tampa Bay attack has had a very hard time of scoring recently and while GB's defense had not been pulling its weight they put in a brilliant effort last week and i see no reason why it wont continue against a scoring challenged Tampa Bay. Freeman will be under the pump big time and im expecting a couple of interceptions in the match as well. Tampa Bay are slow starters and will never look a threat in this game imo

[blackcrow]

Re: NFL Week Eleven Picks Denver +3.5 @ 2.33 :D Record: 32-39 (+6.84) Cleveland - Jacksonville under 36.5 @ 1.96 pinnacle Cleveland averages 207 passing yards and just 87 rushing yards per game, as they have scored 17 points or less in 8 of their 9 games. Doubt that they improve on this as they meet a pretty good Jags defence that allows 189 passing yards and 107 rushing yards per game, and have allowed 17 points or less in 5 of their 9 games this season. The Jags pass for 122 yards and run for 121 yards, so expect alot of running from Jones-Drew given that Cleveland allow just 163 passing yards per game, while they allow 143 rushing yards per game. Jacksonville have scored 20 points or less in all 9 of their games while Cleveland has alloweed 16 points or less in 3 of their 4 home games. Both teams have good enough defences to close the offences down and can see this game being based on FGs rather than TDs. Detroit - Carolina over 47.5 @ 1.97 pinnnacle Detroit averages 266 passing yards and 94 rushing yards per game as they have scored 24+ points in of their 9 games, and expect them to do well on this Carolina defence that not only allows 224 passing yards per game, but 138 rushing yards as well. Carolina averages 272 passing yards per game and since Detroit allows just 814 passing yards per game, then expect them to run the ball quite extensively here as they avergae 128 rushing yards per game while Detroit allows 134 rushing yars per game. Carolina have scored 21+ points in 6 of their 9 games while Detoit has allowed 24+ points in 8 of their 9 games, so can see both teams scoring on each other to send it over Green Bay -23.5 @ 4.25 centrebet GB average 307 passing yards and 103 rushing yards per game as they have scored 42+ points in 3 of their 4 home games and are coming off a 45-7 thumping of Minnesota as they had 288 passing yards and 90 rushing yards in that game. TB allows 263 passing yards as well as 138 rushing yards per game, and expect to see GB hit them hard early as they tend to do against these teams when playing at home. What was even better about the win over Minnesota was the performance of the defence that allowed just 190 passing yards and 104 rushing yards as they stifled the Minnesota offence. Expect their LBs to rush TB's QB Freeman regularly while their secondary will be waiting to pick him off as he has 13 INTs to go with his 9 TDs. While TB average 234 passing yards and just 97 rushing yards per game, expect the GB defence to negate their ability to move the chains, as they will look to blow them out early, and then use the second half to run the ball and keep their players relatively rested for Thursday's big game with Detroit Minnesota - Oakland over 45.5 @ 1.96 pinnacle Minnesota should be able to do much better offensively as they should be able to run and pass on this Oakland defence that allows 246 passing yards and 132 rushing yards per game. Minnesota have averaged 26 points in their 4 home games, while Oakland have allowed 20+ points in 7 of their 9 games, and with RB Peterson certain to get plenty of the ball, they should be able to gain yardage and points against them. The problem for Minnesota is their defence as they have allowed 273 passing yards per game, and they are up against a good QB in Palmer who has played well of late for Oakland. They will still run the ball as they average 156 yards in doing so, but they are up against a pretty good Vikings rush defence that allows 94 yards per game. Oakland has gained 23+ points in 7 of their 9 games while Minnesota has allowed 21+ points in 8 of their 9 games, so can see both teams getting at least 20 points and which should then lead to this game going over San Francisco - Arizona over 40.5 @ 1.94 pinnacle SF average 180 passing yards and 131 rushing yards per game, as they have managed to score 24+ points in 6 of their 9 games. They are on a very good roll having won their last 7 games, so they will look to take advantage of a Arizona defence that allows 255 passing yards and 123 rushing yards per game, and have allowed 21+ points in 6 of their 9 games. Arizona averages 224 passing yards and just 95 rushing yards per game, and they will look to pass on this SF secondary that allows 260 passing yards per game, while the rush defence is pretty good, allowing only 73 yards per game. Arizona have scored 19+ points in 7 of their 9 games, while SF have allowed 17+ points in 5 of their 9 games. Like both teams to get around 20 points here which should be enough to send it over Atlanta - Tennessee under 43.5 @ 1.99 pinnacle Atlanta average 21 passing yards and 121 rushing yards per game, as they have scored 23 points or less in 5 of their 9 games. They are up against a good Tennessee defence that allows 224 passing yards and 125 rushing yards, and has allowed 17 points or less in 6 of their 9 games. Tennessee average 237 passing yards and jus 87 rushing yards per game while Atlanta allows 254 passing yards and just 90 yards per game. Expect Tennessee to air the ball as they will not get much production on the ground, but they have scored 17 points or less in 5 of their 9 games while Atlanta has allowed 17 points or less in 3 of their last 4 games. Like both sets of defences to do enough to contain the opposition Chicago -13.5 @ 4.25 centrebet Chicago average 208 passing yards and 120 rushing yards per game, but they have managed to score 30+ points in 4 of their 5 home games, while SD allows 203 passing yards and 128 rusing yards per game, and have allowed 23+ points in their last 5 games. Chicago's defence has stepped up of late as they have allowed less than 14 points in 3 of their 5 home games, and 18 points or less in 3 of their last 4 overall. They allow 270 passing yards and 1-7 rushing yards per game, and will like their chances of containing this SD offence that has been turning over the ball. They average 289 passing yards and 108 rushing yards per game, but they have scored 21 points or less in 3 of their last 4 games. Like Chicago to put plenty of pressure on QB Rivers while stopping the run game as well

[allthethings]

Re: NFL Week Eleven Picks

I dont think so' date=' at the end of the day Green Bay are an exceptional attacking team and Tampa Bay are just very amateur. The Tampa Bay attack has had a very hard time of scoring recently and while GB's defense had not been pulling its weight they put in a brilliant effort last week and i see no reason why it wont continue against a scoring challenged Tampa Bay. Freeman will be under the pump big time and im expecting a couple of interceptions in the match as well. Tampa Bay are slow starters and will never look a threat in this game imo[/quote'] I agree with everything you wrote here, and I am from Wisconsin and a big GB fan. It's the situation that's all wrong...the situation favors TB with a two-TD head start.

[allthethings]

Re: NFL Week Eleven Picks I've taken: Baltimore -7 (was -7.5, and I jumped when it hit -7 at even money...looks like it's dropped to -6.5) Buffalo +2 (timed it badly, looks like it's +3 now) I like: Washington +7.5, but it seems like it's +7 across the board Minnesota -1.5 now...live home dog, now a favorite ...and if I had any balls at all I'd take TB +15. Think I'll leave it along...don't like going against my team.

[WeakestLink]

Re: NFL Week Eleven Picks NY Giants -11AH , 2.90 5dimes , 10units ( NYG : PHI ) : yards per game 374:418 ; yards per game allowed 359:340 ; points per game 24:24 ; points per game allowed 23:23. Passing leaders ( NYG : PHI ) : TDs 17:0 , intercepted passes 8:0. Rushing leaders ( NYG : PHI ) : TDs 8:10. Receiving leaders ( NYG : PHI ) : TDs 8:6. It official , Vick is out. With Vick on team I would bet on the Eagles , but now there is no way they can make this even a close game. Odds are dropping really fast and I'm affraid that before the game starts this could be the basic spread offered by the bookies. Not much to say when the only important thing is that Philadelphia without Vick is not nearly the same team they are when he is starter.

[meatman]

Re: NFL Week Eleven Picks Bills @ Dolphins UNDER 714.5 total offensive yards @ 1.80 bet365 Miami have improved of late and their defence has tightened up a bit. I just don’t see this being much of a classic, especially with it being a divisional contest. Both offences are average, expect Fred Jackson who has been great this season. But can he keep it up? If Miami can keep a lid on him today then it would restrict a lot of yardage although I have obviously prepared in case Jackson has a strong game. Miami games are rarely shootouts and so I’m happy to be on the unders here @ a high line of 714.5. Panthers @ Lions OVER 715.5 total offensive yards @ 1.86 bet365 Both defences just cant stop the run, so there should be plenty of yardage on the ground here. The Lions always have huge passing power too which helps, and the Panthers aren’t strangers to big plays either and I see this being a high scoring offensive match. I think we will see at least 750 total yardage in it, maybe even push towards to 800 mark, so I’m happy to take over 715.5. Bengals @ Ravens UNDER 645.5 total offensive yards @ 1.86 bet365 This isn’t going to be a classic, at least in terms of offensive viewing. Both defences are pretty good and should be having good days. The Ravens had had 2 or 3 dodgy matches recently but back at home they are a power force and teams often struggle to move the ball against them. Rookie QB Andy Dalton could have a few problems and get sacked a few times. The Bengals are another team with a high sack count, which really helps going under on this bet. I see there being under 600 yards here, maybe something like 550, so I’m happy to take under 645.5 Jaguars @ Browns UNDER 594.5 total offensive yards @ 1.76 bet365 This will surely be the most boring game of the day, definitely not one to watch at all. Both offences are absolutely dire, with only MJD a legitimate danger for major yards. Gabbert is terrible, at least in terms of the plays they give him. The potential for him to make a lot of yards is minimal, especially against such a good Browns pass defence. The Jax defence is good in all areas and will restrict their opponents from scoring much. Unless MJD has a monster game, and (I’m talking 130+ yards, I still take into account he‘ll get a few) then I just cant see how this game takes off in terms of yardage. Under 594.5 for me, I see it somewhere around the 530 mark.

[GoldenEye]

Re: NFL Week Eleven Picks

I agree with everything you wrote here' date=' and I am from Wisconsin and a big GB fan. It's the situation that's all wrong...the situation favors TB with a two-TD head start.[/quote'] Yeah maybe so. I guess this is just where personal opinion comes into it, i believe GB are one of the most professional teams in the NFL and am willing to not put too much emphasis on the schedule of the game when they are playing one of the more amateur teams in the comp. I guess time will tell though. I have GB to win the game as the last leg of a few multis and am just adding some more bets now that the GB line has moved in :ok 7 Units - Green Bay -13.5 @ 1.94 2 Units - Green Bay -19.5 @ 3.10 1 Unit - Green Bay -27.5 @ 6.20

[GoldenEye]

Re: NFL Week Eleven Picks I never usually take really long multis but just for a bit of fun this week im going to have 2 Units on this multi mainly just for a bit of fun, with the intention of winning still of course ;) NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS @ 1.08 GREEN BAY PACKERS @ 1.12 BUFFALO BILLS (Handicap +18.5) @ 1.10 BALTIMORE RAVENS (Handicap +9.5) @ 1.12 JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (Handicap +17.5) @ 1.10 MINNESOTA VIKINGS (Handicap +13.5) @ 1.10 DETROIT LIONS (Handicap +10.5) @ 1.10 DALLAS COWBOYS (Handicap +9.5) @ 1.10 SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (Handicap +6.5) @ 1.09 ATLANTA FALCONS (Handicap +9.5) @ 1.10 CHICAGO BEARS (Handicap +13.5) @ 1.09 NEW YORK GIANTS (Handicap +10.5) @ 1.09 2 Units @ 3.10

[Samba_SamPa]

Re: NFL Week Eleven Picks Took this lot on the 17th with Paddy Vikings +1 v Raiders 2.5pts @ 10/11 Bills +2.5 v Dolphins 3pts @ 10/11 Rams -1 v Seahawks 3pts @ 10/11 Bears -3.5 v Chargers 2.5pts @ 10/11 Jaguars Scr v Browns 3pts @ 10/11 I'd like the sweep please :hope Vikings at home are a different animal to Vikings on the road. I think AP can carry them to a narrow win over the Raiders. Dolphins had lost a gazillion in a row at home before winning their most recent - over the season so far there's no doubt the Bills have been the better outfit and getting a start I thought was too good to refuse. I'm really down on the Seahawks, just not rating them at all and I think SJax can run over them. Bears have responded really well to slipping to 2-3, but I always like them at home anyway. I don't think it will be a high scoring game, but Forte can have a big game and see them to a 24-7 type game. Finally, the Browns have been putrid and I am hoping MJD can have a big weekend with lots of fantasy points, 120 yds rushing and 2 TDs will do... can't see Browns making it to 14...

[Stribs]

Re: NFL Week Eleven Picks

I've taken: Baltimore -7 (was -7.5, and I jumped when it hit -7 at even money...looks like it's dropped to -6.5) Buffalo +2 (timed it badly, looks like it's +3 now) I like: Washington +7.5, but it seems like it's +7 across the board Minnesota -1.5 now...live home dog, now a favorite ...and if I had any balls at all I'd take TB +15. Think I'll leave it along...don't like going against my team.

I'm still new to all the handicap malarkey... Whats the difference between -7 and -7.5, surely both mean the team have to win by 8?

[Samba_SamPa]

Re: NFL Week Eleven Picks

I'm still new to all the handicap malarkey... Whats the difference between -7 and -7.5' date=' surely both mean the team have to win by 8?[/quote'] If the team won by 7 (on -7 handicap) you would get your stake back :ok

[Samba_SamPa]

Re: NFL Week Eleven Picks

Vikings +1 v Raiders 2.5pts @ 10/11 Bills +2.5 v Dolphins 3pts @ 10/11 Rams -1 v Seahawks 3pts @ 10/11 Bears -3.5 v Chargers 2.5pts @ 10/11 Jaguars Scr v Browns 3pts @ 10/11

Stick a fork in me, I'm done

[jimmy012]

Re: NFL Week Eleven Picks I'm going to give a shot at PHI Eagles ML @ 3.00. Vick is out for this week with a rib injury which makes VY starting for the Eagles. Now, some people would say that it's a major blow for the eagles now that Vick is out, but I think otherwise. I think VY is going to do a better job than Vick because the latter has been very erratic and not consistent at all throughout this season And the reason why the Eagles have this many losses is because they've imploded on the 4th quarter, either by simple mistakes or bad coaching from Andy Reid. If they can play consistently throughout the whole game and Reid making better calls, I think they might be able to pull up an upset on the Giants. Furthermore, the Eagles have won the last 4 games on Giants homefield. I'm not really confident on this bet though so it's only going to be with a small stake. :hope