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11 hours ago, Xtc12 said:

Oleg 13.40 Kelso 20 Pts Win @ 5\6 (bog)

1st @ 11\10 -  tracked leader from 1st, challenged 3rd, mistake 3 out, led next, slow last, driven and pressed flat, in command towards finish

Oleg may have saved this and keep it in profit for the year with 13 days left. :cigar

Update :

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Back in the game with a 91% SR in the last 11 days. Overall SR is still the lowest since I started this. 

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Getting ready to start this again on the 23rd November with Ascot. Don't forget it will only work with the staking strategy applied. Below are the results since I started posting back in 2011 plu

Brilliant yet again Xtc

Spiritofchartwell 14.40 Fontwell 6 Pts Win @ 9\4 (bog) Had looked to have turned over a new leaf, winning twice here in 2017, but put in another moody shift when last seen. Work to do.

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Tombstone 14.10 Leopardstown 3 Pts Win @ 8\15 (bog)

Smart chaser. Latest win in chase at Limerick in October. 66/1, tailed-off last of 6 to Apple's Jade in Irish Champion Hurdle at this course (16f, good) 29 days ago. The one to beat. 

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On 3/2/2019 at 10:04 PM, Xtc12 said:

Tombstone 14.10 Leopardstown 3 Pts Win @ 8\15 (bog)

1st @ 9\10 -  settled 3rd early, slight mistake 2nd, closer and pressed 2nd from 5th, 2nd entering straight, ridden to challenge before last, narrow lead and slight mistake last, kept on best run-in, asserted closing stages

Swaffham Bulbeck 14.10 Fakenham 3 Pts Win @ 5\6 (bog)

Fair on the Flat and was just touched off by a stronger stayer back hurdling in a tongue tie over C&D on New Year's Day. Stands out on form. Cheekpieces added to tongue tie. 

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On 3/3/2019 at 10:55 PM, Xtc12 said:

Swaffham Bulbeck 14.10 Fakenham 3 Pts Win @ 5\6 (bog)

3rd - tracked leaders, ridden 2 out, kept on to go 3rd at last, not trouble leaders

Song Saa 15.30 Newcastle 2 Pts Win @ Evs (bog)

Revived all of a sudden, ending long losing run at Kempton in January and confirming that form when third over 3m at Warwick. Should at the very least remain competitive. 

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22 hours ago, Xtc12 said:

Debece 14.50 Catterick 3 pts win @ 1/6 (bog)

1st @ 1\6 - mostly jumped well, made all, jumped big and brushed 2nd, going best in narrow lead when left clear 3 out

Cash Back 15.05 Thurles 3 Pts Win @ 2\5 (bog)

Fairly useful hurdler. 23/10, second of 14 in minor event hurdle at Auteuil (17.9f, soft). Off 16 months. First run for yard after leaving Y. Gourraud. Has been found an excellent opportunity here.

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22 hours ago, Xtc12 said:

Cash Back 15.05 Thurles 3 Pts Win @ 2\5 (bog)

1st @ 10\11 - tracked leaders, a little keen, 2nd from 4th, led approaching straight, went on and not fluent last, kept on well run-in

With 8 days left todays win has locked in a definite profit even if we had 8 losers to the end.  :beer

5c818e336d93d_SPF07032019.JPG.62dcd7b8231f1b8809727e5042f083ca.JPG

Average Stake : 10.22

 

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On 3/7/2019 at 10:44 PM, Xtc12 said:

Boite 13.50 Leicester 3 Pts Win @ 11\10 (bog)

2nd -  led, headed when jumped badly left 4 out, soon headed, mistake 7th, outpaced 3 out, no impression

Sizing Coal 16.50 Gowran Park 2 Pts Win @ 11\8 (bog)

Useful chaser. 9/1, creditable second of 11 in hunter chase at Down Royal (22f, good to soft). Bolted up in a good time between the flags since, so looks to hold leading claims back under Rules. 

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14 hours ago, Xtc12 said:

Sizing Coal 16.50 Gowran Park 2 Pts Win @ 11\8 (bog)

PU - mid-division on inner closer in 4th at 11th, 5th 4 out, soon ridden and weakened quickly, pulled up before 3 out

Dalila Du Seuil 14.20 Warwick 1 Pt Win @ 2\5 (bog)

Useful listed winner over hurdles in France and, having changed hands for €210,000, she looked good when making a successful chase debut at Exeter (17.5f) in December. Open to progress back in hood.

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23 hours ago, Xtc12 said:

Dalila Du Seuil 14.20 Warwick 1 Pt Win @ 2\5 (bog)

Fell - tracked leaders hampered and fell at the second

Red Force One 14.10 Stratford 4 Pts Win @ 4\7 (bog)

Useful handicapper on the Flat who showed plenty of ability when fourth in Adonis Juvenile Hurdle at Kempton (16f, good to firm) on NH debut 16 days ago. Looks sure to improve and is the one to beat.

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On 3/10/2019 at 10:21 PM, Xtc12 said:

Red Force One 14.10 Stratford 4 Pts Win @ 4\7 (bog)

3rd -  chased leader until 4th, chased leaders, ridden in 3rd and struggling after 2 out, no chance with 1st 2

Lady Cylla 14.35 Sedgefield 5 Pts Win @ 4\7 (bog)

rom a good jumping family and back on track when second to Miranda (won again since) at Ludlow (15.8f) last month. This longer trip will suit and she’s the one to beat in receipt of weight. 

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22 hours ago, Xtc12 said:

Lady Cylla 14.35 Sedgefield 5 Pts Win @ 4\7 (bog)

3rd -  in touch, chased leaders 6th, effort before 2 out, stayed on same pace

Altior 15.30 Cheltenham 6 Pts Win @ 2\5 (bog)

Outstanding performer who is unbeaten in 17 starts over hurdles/fences, including wins at the last 3 Festivals. Had 7 lengths to spare over Min in this race 12 months ago and can't oppose. 

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On 3/12/2019 at 11:17 PM, Xtc12 said:

Altior 15.30 Cheltenham 6 Pts Win @ 2\5 (bog)

1st @ 2\5 -  jumped left at few times, tracked leader, mistake 7th (water), led after 3 out, ridden after 2 out, headed last, edged left into rival and led again flat, stayed on well and asserting towards finish

Mega Yeats 13.45 Market Rasen 6 Pts Win @ 1\9 (bog)

Useful in bumpers and made the perfect start over hurdles at Wetherby (19.7f) on Boxing Day. Better form when third in listed company and this is a simple-looking task. 

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Last day for another year with a small profit made.

American Tom 13.20 Fakenham 6 Pts Win @ 5\6 (bog)

Useful form for Willie Mullins over fences. Sold out of that yard cheaply in September but looks to have been found a good opening on first start for new trainer after 10 months off. Hooded. 

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23 hours ago, Xtc12 said:

American Tom 13.20 Fakenham 6 Pts Win @ 5\6 (bog)

2nd - led, 4 lengths clear 3 out, ridden and headed approaching last, stayed on

Well unfortunately couldn't finish with a winner, so after 99 bets we stand as follows :

 

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A few facts on 18\19:

59 Winners led to the lowest strike rate of 59.6%  (2.3% lower than 12\13)

This years profit is the 3rd lowest and the 4th lowest P on I.

The 5 losers between 8th Mar, and 12th Mar was the equal highest number of consecutive losers with 2016\17.

The most consecutive winners over the time was 7 (3rd lowest) brought to an end by Southfield Stone (Lorcan Williams) on 4th February..

The biggest odds winner @ 3.0 was Le Precieux (J.Moore) 3rd Jan and Song Saa (Mr N George) 5th March.

The lowest odds winner @ 1.06 was Louis Vac Pouch (J.McGrath) 26th Feb and  Poppy Kay (A.Coleman) 1st March.

49 different jockeys, three with the most rides Barry Geraghty 10, 6 winners 60%, N De Boinville 7,6 winners 86%, Harry Cobden and G.Sheehan 5, 3 winners 60% and Aidan Coleman 5,2 winners 40%. 

Of the jockeys who had 2 or more rides D.Russell (3 rides), J.Bowen (3 rides), Jack Kennedy (2 rides), Mr D.Maxwell (2 rides) all had a 100% record.

Average Stake : 9.73 Pts

Think thats it for another 8 months. Thanks to everyone who looked in since November.

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1 minute ago, MCLARKE said:

Thanks, very interesting. Out of interest what is the logic behind the staking plan and does it make a profit at level stakes?

The logic behind the staking plan is, increase your stake by a point at a loss and decrease your stake with a win. The amount you decrease your stake depends on the price of the winner. You continue to do this until you make a profit and then start again.

There are another few rules thrown in but the above is the basis of the plan.

This year on the 17th December we were in profit of 20.39. It took 63 more bets before we were able to increase our profit above this which is the reason for the high stakes from the end of December till the 2nd March when Oleg won with Harry Cobden up to increase our profit to 34.12.

Think I checked this on Level stakes before and dont think it makes a profit. Will check when I get a chance.

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Thanks for the explanation.

I must admit I am always dubious about staking plans.

I don't think that long term a staking plan can turn a losing system at level stakes into a profitable system.

I suspect that at some stage you will have a losing run that will wipe out all your profits but I am open to be proved wrong.

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@MCLARKE Yes you maybe right about staking plans but you are not guaranteed a profit on level stakes either. Yes with a staking plan you would possibly lose your profit quicker.

Read a good piece on RFO recently from Richard Birch a professional punter. Since the 1st january 2019 he has laid out approximately £80,000 for a return of £80,030. I know people will say that he mustn't be a good punter, but unfortunately we are all not in the JP McManus league but we will all carry on to make our dream.

Will try and get the level stakes for you asap. Thanks for the input.

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  • 8 months later...

That time of the year again ..... ready to go with this.

NB Even though this has shown a profit down the years you have to follow the staking plan for it to work !

I will try and get the results for level staking in time.

No good thing pricewise today so to start with

Birchdale 13.00 Ascot 3 Pts Win @ 13\8 (bog)

Won first 2 starts over hurdles at Warwick last season, notably Grade 2 Classic in January. Shaped as if amiss in the Albert Bartlett at Cheltenham final start but remains with potential for chasing.

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On 3/15/2019 at 11:31 PM, Xtc12 said:

The logic behind the staking plan is, increase your stake by a point at a loss and decrease your stake with a win. The amount you decrease your stake depends on the price of the winner. You continue to do this until you make a profit and then start again.

There are another few rules thrown in but the above is the basis of the plan.

This year on the 17th December we were in profit of 20.39. It took 63 more bets before we were able to increase our profit above this which is the reason for the high stakes from the end of December till the 2nd March when Oleg won with Harry Cobden up to increase our profit to 34.12.

Think I checked this on Level stakes before and dont think it makes a profit. Will check when I get a chance.

Martin Gayle still alive after all the tears and years? Marvin Gaye system is hard to fault i.e I heard it on the Grapevine as opposed to systems that have been proven for decades to be failures.At least M Clarke appears to be thinking like a punter who has a desire to win using logic and that is a compliment and a positive way forward and plenty should take note?

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1 hour ago, Rolemat said:

Martin Gayle still alive after all the tears and years?

I am presuming from the comment you are saying that this is a martingale system. My understanding of a martingale system is that you double your stake after every loser. Well with this system (which has shown a profit in ten of the last eleven years) you increase your stake by a point after a loser. 

Yes please take note I cannot guarantee a profit will be made at the end of the year but who can, even with level stakes. 

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13 hours ago, Xtc12 said:

Birchdale 13.00 Ascot 3 Pts Win @ 13\8 (bog)

3rd -  close up in 4th, went poor 3rd 5 out, plugged on

Laurina 14.45 Gowran Park 2 Pts Win @ 2\5 (bog)

Very smart hurdler who racked up six wins in a row at up to 20f before fourth in Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham in March. Makes her eagerly awaited debut over fences now and she's the one to beat. 

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1 hour ago, Xtc12 said:

I am presuming from the comment you are saying that this is a martingale system. My understanding of a martingale system is that you double your stake after every loser. Well with this system (which has shown a profit in ten of the last eleven years) you increase your stake by a point after a loser. 

Yes please take note I cannot guarantee a profit will be made at the end of the year but who can, even with level stakes. 

Just similar Xtc as limited to bank and acceptance of large stakes following a long losing run e.g £100 to win 20p? Long term losing system as they all are otherwise there would be no bookies or layers on exchanges?

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