Xtc12 Posted December 1, 2012 Author Share Posted December 1, 2012 Re: Short Priced Favs maybe not close to PC on Sunday so will take a chance with...... Moscow Presents 12.40 Carlisle Stake will be 5 Pts if Big Bucks wins and 6 Pts if he loses @ SP Will update Monday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted December 3, 2012 Author Share Posted December 3, 2012 Re: Short Priced Favs Big Bucks Won @ 1.1 Returns 5.50 Start Bank 100 Bets 7 Wins 4 Total Bet 21 Total Won 16.79 Loss 4.21 Strike Rate 57.14% Current Bank 95.79 ROI -20% Carlisle abandoned yesterday Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted December 3, 2012 Author Share Posted December 3, 2012 Re: Short Priced Favs Pendra 12.40 Plumpton 5 Pts win @ 1.57 Pendra looked a good prospect when scoring over C&D a month ago and can maintain his unbeaten record, probably at the main expense of last month's Fontwell winner Dawn Twister. Workbench may prove best of the rest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted December 3, 2012 Author Share Posted December 3, 2012 Re: Short Priced Favs Pendra Won @ 1.57 Returns 7.85 Start Bank 100 Bets 8 Wins 5 Total Bet 26 Total Won 24.64 Loss 1.36 Strike Rate 62.5% Current Bank 98.64 ROI -5.2% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted December 4, 2012 Author Share Posted December 4, 2012 Re: Short Priced Favs Kilcascan 12.15 Towcester 5 pt Win @ SP KILCASCAN wasn't disgraced over a longer trip at Warwick last time despite returning a losing favourite. He'd scored over 3m in soft ground at Uttoxeter before that and this looks no tougher. Better was expected from Hobb's Dream last time having made the frame on her comeback at Fontwell last month. She'll need a similar effort if she's to figure in this while course regular Overton Lad has failed to complete his last couple of starts but is still preferred to Billybo, who is having his first start since 2010. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
erhaab1965 Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Re: Short Priced Favs Very interesting thread. Very similar to a thread which gained a cult following on here recently. Just a few questions. How do you come up with your selections? Is it form based, the shortest forecasted horses or a combination of various factors? I noticed that when your betting bank was getting very low you upped your stakes,up to 20 odd points and when you got back your batting bank it was immediately reduced to 1-2-3 points. It mirrors how I stake my selections, for me on occasions I lack the mental discipline and if I am not careful it can spiral out of control. Is there a method behind the staking plan or do you increase your stakes to win back previous losses? In light of my above paragraph, what would the returns be like had you used a level stake betting plan? Hope it all goes well for you and will be watching with interest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted December 4, 2012 Author Share Posted December 4, 2012 Re: Short Priced Favs Kilcascan 2nd beaten by 36LStart Bank 100 Bets 9 Wins 5 Total Bet 31 Total Won 24.64 Loss 6.36 Strike Rate 55.5% Current Bank 93.64 ROI -20.5% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted December 4, 2012 Author Share Posted December 4, 2012 Re: Short Priced Favs Hi Erhaab, what was the name of the thread with the cult following? The selection is based on a combination of shortest forecast/form. I noticed that when your betting bank was getting very low you upped your stakes,up to 20 odd points and when you got back your batting bank it was immediately reduced to 1-2-3 points. It mirrors how I stake my selections, for me on occasions I lack the mental discipline and if I am not careful it can spiral out of control. Is there a method behind the staking plan or do you increase your stakes to win back previous losses? I think the most important thing in the above is "mental discipline" on the method of the staking plan. There is no rush to get the losses back, at one stage last year I think we went 64 days in getting the losses back. Will try and get the returns on a level staking plan for last year and the previous papertrailing years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted December 5, 2012 Author Share Posted December 5, 2012 Re: Short Priced Favs Doyly Carte 14.20 Catterick 6 Pts win @ SP DOYLY CARTE ran out a most impressive winner on her hurdling debut at Musselburgh last month and the penalty which she carries for that success is unlikely to prevent her from following up. Vinetta showed ability in her first two runs in bumpers and she is one to consider on her hurdles debut. Mary Milan makes some appeal on paper and she is worth a market check on her first ever public outing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted December 5, 2012 Author Share Posted December 5, 2012 Re: Short Priced Favs Doyly Carte Win @ 1.36 returns 8.16 Bets 10 Wins 6 Total Bet 37 Total Won 32.80 Loss 4.20 Strike Rate 60% Current Bank 95.80 ROI -11.35% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted December 6, 2012 Author Share Posted December 6, 2012 Re: Short Priced Favs Oscar Hill 13.30 Leicester 6 Pt Win @ SP Spear Thistle (second) had the reopposing Ockey De Neulliac behind in a similar event at Hexham when last sighted but it's tough to oppose OSCAR HILL in his hat-trick bid for Gordon Elliot. A rare representative of the Irish handler at this track, connections clearly feel there is plenty of prize money to be won with their thriving six-year-old in this company, and a similar effort to when a seven-length Taunton winner should be good enough Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conny12 Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Re: Short Priced Favs Leicester Is Abandoned Mate Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted December 7, 2012 Author Share Posted December 7, 2012 Re: Short Priced Favs Fingal Bay 13.00 Exeter 6 Pt Win @ 1.08 FINGAL BAY should prove a cut above these rivals. There was no disgrace in finishing second behind Dynaste (winner of a Grade 2 contest since) at Cheltenham latest and, although seen as an out-and-out three-miler, he can get away with it in this company. Coole River (engaged to run at Wincanton yesterday) is a dual Grade 2 winner over hurdles and is fancied to beat Chartreux into second spot, despite returning from a lengthy spell on the sidelines. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted December 8, 2012 Author Share Posted December 8, 2012 Re: Short Priced Favs Fingal Bay Run Out Bets 11 Wins 6 Total Bet 43 Total Won 32.80 Loss 10.20 Strike Rate 54.5% Current Bank 89.80 ROI -23.7% Sprinter Sacre 15.05 Sandown 7 Pts Win @ 1.4 Nicky Henderson's SPRINTER SACRE improved out of all recognition for the switch to chasing last season, winning five times including the Arkle at Cheltenham and Aintree's 2m Grade 1 the following month. He is a joy to watch over fences and, considering his only real downside is that he can sometimes race too freely, the presence of high-class front-runner Sanctuaire could help if anything. The Paul Nicholls-trained Sanctuaire was also unbeaten in his novice chase campaign and it's worth noting his two bloodless victories towards the end of last season came over this C&D. He may have to settle for second on this occasion, however. Kumbeshwar gained a confidence-boosting win at Haydock recently and although tackling much stronger opposition today, he at least has conditions in his favour again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted December 8, 2012 Author Share Posted December 8, 2012 Re: Short Priced Favs Sprinter Sacre Won @ 1.4 Returns 9.80 Start Bank 100 Bets 12 Wins 7 Total Bet 50 Total Won 42.60 Loss 7.40 Strike Rate 58.3% Current Bank 92.60 ROI -14.8% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewillows Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Re: Short Priced Favs Wasn't on Sprinter Sacre but well done anyway mate Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted December 9, 2012 Author Share Posted December 9, 2012 Re: Short Priced Favs Bordoni 12.40 Warwick 7 Pt Win @ 2.5 Despite lacking previous experience over hurdles, BORDONI could prove tough to beat in this company. He was a progressive stayer on the Flat for Mark Johnston this summer, winning well off a mark of 82 on his final outing on the level in September, and he has joined a trainer who has become adept at readying such types for the NH code. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted December 9, 2012 Author Share Posted December 9, 2012 Re: Short Priced Favs Bordoni 2nd Start Bank 100 Bets 13 Wins 7 Total Bet 57 Total Won 42.60 Loss 14.40 Strike Rate 53.8% Current Bank 85.60 ROI -25.2% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted December 10, 2012 Author Share Posted December 10, 2012 Re: Short Priced Favs Camden 14.00 fakenham 8Pt Win @ SP A tight handicap on official ratings but CAMDEN arrives in the best form. Without a win since April last year, he'd slipped down the weights and took advantage when scoring at Plumpton last month on only his second start over fences. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted December 10, 2012 Author Share Posted December 10, 2012 Re: Short Priced Favs Camden fell Start Bank 100 Bets 14 Wins 7 Total Bet 65 Total Won 42.60 Loss 22.40 Strike Rate 50% Current Bank 77.60 ROI -34.46% Tomorrow Hannah jacques 12.20 Sedgefield 9Pt Win @ SP Texas Tilly is making her racecourse debut with her eighth birthday approaching but she's bred for the job so watch the market. Maggie Blue has her first start over timber after some uninspiring form in bumpers while Lady Of Verona weakened quickly over 2m at Musselburgh last month, though that was her first start in over a year. Saddlers Mot has won once in 18 starts over hurdles so HANNAH JACQUES looks the obvious choice despite failing to build on her smooth victory at Cartmel in June. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted December 13, 2012 Author Share Posted December 13, 2012 Re: Short Priced Favs Hannah jacques Won @ 1.53 returns 13.77 Start Bank 100 Bets 15 Wins 8 Total Bet 74 Total Won 56.37 Loss 17.63 Strike Rate 53.3% Current Bank 82.37 ROI -23.82% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted December 13, 2012 Author Share Posted December 13, 2012 Re: Short Priced Favs Ciceron 15.20 Taunton 9 Pts Win @ SP Elenika failed to confirm a taking Huntingdon performance in front of Rajdhani Express, who may have offered that form a boost earlier on the card, when only fourth of six at Newbury most recently and he might be in need of more respite from the handicapper. Six times a winner over hurdles, however, CICERON has been handed what looks a workable mark of 127 for his handicap bow over fences and he left a disappointing Uttoxeter introduction behind when runner-up at Leicester in a novice event the last day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted December 14, 2012 Author Share Posted December 14, 2012 Re: Short Priced Favs Ciceron 2nd Start Bank 100 Bets 16 Wins 8 Total Bet 83 Total Won 56.37 Loss 26.63 Strike Rate 50% Current Bank 73.37 ROI -32.08% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted December 14, 2012 Author Share Posted December 14, 2012 Re: Short Priced Favs Overquest 13.00 bangor 10 Pt Win @ 2.5 OVERQUEST returned from a lengthy absence to score at Ayr last month and a 1lb rise for that success looks fair so he is fancied to follow up. Acrai Rua appreciates a real test and he is likely to get that here so he is worthy of consideration. Flying Award is capable of making his presence felt if putting his best foot forward but Earth Planet must step up on his Ascot reappearance effort to make an impact. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted December 14, 2012 Author Share Posted December 14, 2012 Re: Short Priced Favs Overquest 13.00 bangor 10 Pt Win @ 2.5 NR Away for the weekend so will have to do tomorrows today Oscar Whiskey 15.40 cheltenham 10 Pt Win @ SP OSCAR WHISKY returned to action with a very smooth success in Grade 2 company at Ascot last month and he looks sure to take plenty of beating in his bid to repeat last year's win in this race. He made all on that occasion and that might be the case again here as neither Crack Away Jack nor Brampour are accustomed to front running tactics. On the basis that Crack Away Jack has proven stamina, he could be the one to chase home Nicky Henderson's representative. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted December 17, 2012 Author Share Posted December 17, 2012 Re: Short Priced Favs Oscar Whiskey Won @ 1.2 Returns 12.00 Start Bank 100 Bets 17 Wins 9 Total Bet 93 Total Won 68.37 Loss 24.63 Strike Rate 52.9% Current Bank 75.37 ROI -26.48% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted December 17, 2012 Author Share Posted December 17, 2012 Re: Short Priced Favs Sir Fredlot 12.30 Plumptpn 10 Pts Win @ 1.4 SIR FREDLOT paid for racing up with a strong pace at Folkestone last time and although he finished comfortably held in fourth, much to the dismay of favourite backers, he's expected to improve if keeping a little more in reserve for the finish over this shorter trip. Stablemate Lady Romanza needs to improve plenty on her hurdling debut effort to figure. My Boy Ginger and Maccabees were both moderate on the Flat and make little appeal either. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted December 17, 2012 Author Share Posted December 17, 2012 Re: Short Priced Favs Sir Fredlot Won @ 1.4 Returns 14.00 Start Bank 100 Bets 18 Wins 10 Total Bet 103 Total Won 82.37 Loss 20.63 Strike Rate 55.5% Current Bank 79.37 ROI -20.02% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted December 18, 2012 Author Share Posted December 18, 2012 Re: Short Priced Favs Shernando 13.30 Folkestone 10 Pt Win @ 1.44 Emma Lavelle's string couldn't be in better form and you'd expect Tidal Dance to step up on his third at Wincanton, his first try over timber. But the one to beat looks to be SHERNANDO, who has won three times on the Flat and showed promise in a couple of starts last season over hurdles. His comeback third at Ascot came in much better company than this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted December 18, 2012 Author Share Posted December 18, 2012 Re: Short Priced Favs Shernando 3rd Start Bank 100 Bets 19 Wins 10 Total Bet 113 Total Won 82.37 Loss 30.63 Strike Rate 52.6% Current Bank 69.37 ROI -27.1% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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