Short Priced Favs

[Xtc12]

On 3/12/2020 at 9:27 PM, Xtc12 said:

Coole Well 13.55 Fakenham 26 Pts Win @ 6\4 (bog)

2nd -  led into start, led 2nd, clear with one other after 2 out, ridden and headed approaching last, kept on one pace

Finished Table :

Average Stake : 10.38 Pts

Well thank God that the end of Cheltenham has arrived and I can put this to bed for another 8 months or for good. 

The number of winners this year was the 2nd worse over the eleven years only beaten by 2012\13 (52), which was the only other year not to show a profit. The loss this year blew the loss of 2012\13 ( -1.04) out of the water.  The Strike Rate for this year turned out to be the lowest (by 0.03%) from 2018\19 which had a P on I of 2.4%.

The consecutive losses of 5 equalled the years 2016\17 and 2018\19, which have been the highest.

The wheels seem to come off from the 12th January when Paul Townend was beaten on Blackbow. Over the next 12 days I had one winner (4 non - runners).

Jockey - wise with 3 or more runners:

R.Power 100% from 3, A.Coleman 80% from 5, B.Geraghty 75% from 4, N De Boinville 71% from 7, P.Townend 70% from 10, Joshua Moore 67% from 3, B.Hughes 60% from 5, D.maxwell 60% from 5, D.Jacob 20% from 5  , R.Johnson 0% from 4 

Overall Table since 2009\10 :

Well overall still have a healthy profit. Thanks to everyone that looked in and to anybody that commented. Apologies to anybody that was mad enough to follow the thread.

Wondering if anybody can check on odds - on favs, has the strike rate dropped over the last couple of years.

Edited March 15, 2020 by Xtc12
Correct Tables

[skylark2009]

3 hours ago, Xtc12 said:

 

Wondering if anybody can check on odds - on favs, has the strike rate dropped over the last couple of years.

Hello Xtc12

I have used HRB for your request here (can also do Proform too)

Criteria used -

Results by Year -

Hope this helps.

 

[Xtc12]

@skylark2009 Thanks for the quick response. From your stats 2020 had a SR of 64.08%.

On calculating my SR just for 2020 it was 53.22 % down a whopping 11% on your stats.

 

[skylark2009]

18 minutes ago, Xtc12 said:

@skylark2009 Thanks for the quick response. From your stats 2020 had a SR of 64.08%.

On calculating my SR just for 2020 it was 53.22 % down a whopping 11% on your stats.

 

I should point out that 2020 figure is only for the first quarter of 2020 only and doesn't contain all of the 2019/2020 NH season. I'm not sure if HRB can show the results effectively across seasons (only years).

I'll have a further dabble with it.

Results across the years seem fairly consistent though and the two blips you stated in your post for seasons 2012/2013 and 2018/2019 could well be reflected in the lower strike rates for those years (2012 and 2018) in the results from HRB.

I've always enjoyed this thread as it shows that value (therefore a profit) can be found at the shorter odds.
 

[skylark2009]

Found it - Breakdown by season and Country (UK first then IRE)

[MCLARKE]

Excellent analysis Skylark. I think it shows what an excellent starting point odds on favourites are for making profits. By taking early prices and using some selectivity I have been able to make some nice profits this season, albeit March has been a bit disappointing.

It also confirms that UK races are better than Irish races (the current year withstanding). The over-round in Irish races always seems to be higher. I'm not sure if Irish punters are less value conscious than their UK counterparts.

[MCLARKE]

13 hours ago, Xtc12 said:

2nd -  led into start, led 2nd, clear with one other after 2 out, ridden and headed approaching last, kept on one pace

Finished Table :

Average Stake : 9.04 Pts

 

Hi XTC, probably the ex accountant in me but I've got this year's loss at -155.49.

[Xtc12]

11 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

Hi XTC, probably the ex accountant in me but I've got this year's loss at -155.49.

@MCLARKE had a quick check and yes it is the ex accountant coming out in you. The loss is actually worse than that  -179.85.

I had moved the answer to the sum in Excel but never updated the cell location, thanks and deepest apologies.

From the 22nd Nov. to the 11th Jan. I had a profit of 20.17

From the 12th Jan. to the 13th March I had a grand loss of 200.02

Giving me a total loss of -179.85

Happy with this before I change tables above.

 

 

[MCLARKE]

4 hours ago, Xtc12 said:

@MCLARKE had a quick check and yes it is the ex accountant coming out in you. The loss is actually worse than that  -179.85.

I had moved the answer to the sum in Excel but never updated the cell location, thanks and deepest apologies.

From the 22nd Nov. to the 11th Jan. I had a profit of 20.17

From the 12th Jan. to the 13th March I had a grand loss of 200.02

Giving me a total loss of -179.85

Happy with this before I change tables above.

 

 

Oh dear, still overall you are still showing a decent profit so that's the main thing.

The principle of the system is excellent although as I have said before I'm not a lover of staking plans, the losing runs will always catch you out in the end.

Still I assume that you will start with a clean slate next season so the damage is limited.

[Xtc12]

Yes will start with a new slate next year, hopefully it can be bit better than this !  Thanks for highlighting mistake. 

All the best with your short odds betting.

[Xtc12]

Tables have been corrected in the post above. 

[Xtc12]

Well guys time to restart this again, its that time of the year NH in full swing. Hopefully this goes a bit better than last years disastrous year. Any profit will do !

Birchdale 13.48 Catterick 3 Pts win @ 4/11 (bog)

Shaped as if in need of experience when well beaten on chasing debut at Ascot 12 months ago but not disgraced back over timber when eighth in Coral Cup at Cheltenham 8 months ago. Sure to progress.

 

[Xtc12]

23 hours ago, Xtc12 said:

Birchdale 13.48 Catterick 3 Pts win @ 4/11 (bog)

UR -  prominent, disputing lead when mistake and unseated rider 12th

Fakir D'Oudairies 13.02 naas 2 Pts WIn @ 11\8 (bog)

Very smart chaser. Latest win in chase at Fairyhouse in December. Good 1½ lengths second of 11 to Put The Kettle On in Arkle Chase at Cheltenham. Off 8 months. Can improve further this term.

[Xtc12]

12 hours ago, Xtc12 said:

Fakir D'Oudairies 13.02 naas 2 Pts WIn @ 11\8 (bog)

2nd -  soon raced in 2nd, closed before 6th, pushed along into straight, gained narrow lead briefly approaching 2 out, soon headed and pecked slightly, no extra between last 2, one pace

Appreciate 12.55 Cork 1 Pt WIn @ 2\13 (bog)

Smart 20f bumper winner who signed off for last term with excellent second of 23 to stable companion Ferny Hollow in Champion Bumper at Cheltenham. Hugely exciting hurdling prospect.

 

[azzybear]

wide receiver 11.40

[Xtc12]

On 11/21/2020 at 9:11 PM, Xtc12 said:

Appreciate 12.55 Cork 1 Pt WIn @ 2\13 (bog)

1st @ 2\13 -  tracked leaders, 3rd from 3rd, 2nd approaching straight travelling smoothly, on terms approaching last, pushed out to lead and stayed on well to assert run-in

Shishkin 13.25 Kempton 4 Pts WIn @ 1\6 (bog)

Very smart form over hurdles last season, winning 15-runner Supreme Novices' Hurdle at Cheltenham Festival final start. Most exciting chase prospect (point winner) and very hard to beat.

[Xtc12]

23 hours ago, Xtc12 said:

Shishkin 13.25 Kempton 4 Pts WIn @ 1\6 (bog)

1st @ 1\6 - jumped well, tracked leader, led briefly 1st, led again next, clear from 5th, stayed on strongly, impressive

Minella Dream 13.46 Sedgefield 5 Pts WIn @ 2\5 (bog)

Runner-up in 2 Irish points before (12/1) promising debut second of 12 in 2m novice hurdle at Bangor 28 days ago. Winner has gone in again since so he looks the one to beat. 

[Xtc12]

On 11/23/2020 at 9:54 PM, Xtc12 said:

Minella Drama 13.46 Sedgefield 5 Pts WIn @ 2\5 (bog)

1st @ 4\7 -  tracked leader, led going well before 2 out, went clear flat despite flashing tail

Soaring Glory 13.50 Wetherby 5 Pts Win @ 2\7 (bog)

Useful form in bumpers and made a winning start over hurdles when seeing off a next-time-out winner at Chepstow. Second to a potentially smart novice at Newbury (16.3f) since and hard to oppose here. 

[Xtc12]

23 hours ago, Xtc12 said:

Soaring Glory 13.50 Wetherby 5 Pts Win @ 2\7 (bog)

Fell -  prominent, travelled stylishly to lead before 3 out, going best when fell 2 out

Franco De Port 12.25 Thurles 6 Pts Win @ 4\6 (bog)

Useful hurdler. Off 8 months. Probably the one to beat now switching to fences for his top stable.

[Xtc12]

22 hours ago, Xtc12 said:

Franco De Port 12.25 Thurles 6 Pts Win @ 4\6 (bog)

1st @ 4\6 - tracked leaders, 3rd halfway, left 2nd 4 out, challenged and slight mistake 2 out, soon pushed along and led entering straight, ridden approaching last, kept on well run-in

Flinteur Sacre 12.15 Newbury 6 Pts Win @ 2\5 (bog)

Brother to smart hurdler/top-class chaser Sprinter Sacre and confirmed his debut promise in spades when making his second bumper start a winning one at Kempton in February. Exciting prospect. 

[Xtc12]

On 11/26/2020 at 9:31 PM, Xtc12 said:

Flinteur Sacre 12.15 Newbury 6 Pts Win @ 2\5 (bog)

4th -  pulled hard, restrained in midfield, awkward 1st, took closer order before 2 out, switched right briefly before last, ridden after last, made no impression on leaders flat

Monkfish 11.30 Fairyhouse 7 Pts Win @ 4\11 (bog)

Smart hurdler. Career best when winning 19-runner Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle (Spa) at Cheltenham by neck from Latest Exhibition. Will make a better chaser, so he's more than likely to land this. 

[Xtc12]

On 11/28/2020 at 8:35 AM, Xtc12 said:

Monkfish 11.30 Fairyhouse 7 Pts Win @ 4\11 (bog)

1st @ 4\11 -  tracked leaders, jumped well, went 2nd from 5th, disputed lead 5 out, led 3 out, travelling well 2 out, went clear from last, not extended, easily

Envoi Allen 13.35 Fairyhouse 7 Pts WIn @ 1\7 (bog)

Made it 10-10 with bloodless success in Down Royal novice chase on debut over fences 30 days ago (first-time tongue tie), putting in a superb round of jumping. The most exciting horse in training. 

[Xtc12]

14 hours ago, Xtc12 said:

Envoi Allen 13.35 Fairyhouse 7 Pts WIn @ 1\7 (bog)

1st @ 2\11 -  led, joined approaching 2 out, soon regained lead travelling smoothly, quickly asserted, stayed on well, easily

O Hanrahan Bridge 13.35 Ayr 7 Pts Win @ 6\4 (bog)

Ended a run of five consecutive seconds with first win in 3m handicap (6/4) at Carlisle 21 days ago. Up 5 lb but goes in the mud so not taken lightly. 

[Xtc12]

5th on Monday

Espoir De Romay 13.15 Haydock 8 Pts WIn @ 10\11 (bog)

Useful novice hurdler who had wind op before readily landing odds in 6-runner novice chase at Huntingdon (19.9f, good to soft) on fencing debut 31 days ago. Sure to build on that and the one to beat. 

[Xtc12]

22 hours ago, Xtc12 said:

Espoir De Romay 13.15 Haydock 8 Pts WIn @ 10\11 (bog)

2nd -  tracked leaders, dropped to 4th after 8th, went 2nd 10th, led briefly 12th, led before 3 out, narrowly headed next, ridden between last 2, stayed on same pace run-in

Klassy Kay 14.00 Clonmel 9 Pts WIn @ 5\4 (bog)

First run since leaving Dermot Anthony McLoughlin when 4/7, career best when winning 14-runner handicap hurdle at Fairyhouse 30 days ago. Hit hard by the handicapper but there's more to come.

[Xtc12]

On 12/2/2020 at 10:14 PM, Xtc12 said:

Klassy Kay 14.00 Clonmel 9 Pts WIn @ 5\4 (bog)

3rd -  settled behind leaders, 6th halfway, closer entering straight, soon disputed, ridden 2 out, narrowly headed approaching last where mistake, kept on same pace run-in, 3rd close home

Seems to be a carry on of last year but ...... !!!!

The Big Breakaway 14.05 Exeter 10 Pts WIn @ 2\11 (bog)

Expensive point recruit who ran out an easy winner of his first couple of Rules outings before a good fourth in the Ballymore Novices' Hurdle. Perfect start to chase career at Cheltenham 3 weeks ago. 

[Xtc12]

On 12/3/2020 at 11:27 PM, Xtc12 said:

The Big Breakaway 14.05 Exeter 10 Pts WIn @ 2\11 (bog)

2nd -  disputed lead, led narrowly 7th, jumped into clear lead 10th, not fluent 4 out, joined last, headed and outpaced flat

Grand Mogul 12.40 Sandown 11 Pts Win @ 2\7 (bog)

Fairly useful form to land 18f Chepstow novice but only fair fifth in Cheltenham Grade 2 22 days ago. This is far less exacting so will prove hard to beat for yard that has fine record in this race.

 

[Xtc12]

12 hours ago, Xtc12 said:

Grand Mogul 12.40 Sandown 11 Pts Win @ 2\7 (bog)

2nd -  led, headed 4th but upsides again next, quickened to lead approaching last but soon joined and passed, not pace of winner

Well 2 weeks into this and I equal the one record I didnt want ........ 5 consecutive losers in a row

And to try and stop the rot

Chacun Pour Soi 13.25 Cork 12 Pts WIn @ 4\11 (bog)

Promising type. Career best when winning 7-runner Dublin Chase (6/5) at Leopardstown (17f, good to soft) by 3¾ lengths from Min, keeping on well. Off 10 months. Claims are crystal clear.

 

 

[Xtc12]

On 12/5/2020 at 10:04 PM, Xtc12 said:

Chacun Pour Soi 13.25 Cork 12 Pts WIn @ 4\11 (bog)

1st @ 4\11 -  raced 3rd, took closer order 4 out, travelled well to lead before 2 out, asserted before last, left clear run-in, kept on, easily

Sin A Bhfuil 15.15 Musselburgh 12 Pts WIn @ 11\10 (bog)

Built on debut run when placed at Punchestown last 2 starts and sets the standard. 

[Xtc12]

23 hours ago, Xtc12 said:

Sin A Bhfuil 15.15 Musselburgh 12 Pts WIn @ 11\10 (bog)

2nd -  tracked leaders, shaken up over 3f out, lost position and outpaced over 2f out but rallied entering final furlong, every chance in final 110 yards, just denied

Little River Bay 14.38 Fontwell 13 Pts Win @ 4\7 (bog)

Well-related Shirocco filly who left her hurdling debut form 9 months earlier well behind when scoring in good style at Wincanton (15.3f) 19 days ago. Open to further improvement up in trip.