Short Priced Favs

[Xtc12]

Update (to see how bad it really is)

Average Stake : 6.71

[Xtc12]

On 2/16/2020 at 7:47 PM, Xtc12 said:

Sao Maxence 14.15 Carlisle 18 Pts Win @ 1\2 (bog)

1st @ 1\2 -  pressed leader, led 4th, made rest, pushed clear when not fluent last, ridden out flat, comfortably

Pencilfulloflead 16.20 Punchestown 18 Pts WIn @ 2\5 (bog)

Promising individual. Second of 21 in novice hurdle (5/4) at Naas (15.9f, soft) on hurdles bow 44 days ago, no match for winner. Stable having good spell. Sets the bar pretty high. 

[Xtc12]

On 2/17/2020 at 8:58 PM, Xtc12 said:

Pencilfulloflead 16.20 Punchestown 18 Pts WIn @ 2\5 (bog)

1st @ 4\6 - mid-division, not fluent at 6th, slight mistake next, headway into 3rd at 8th, improved to dispute lead before 3 out, pushed along and led entering straight, ridden before last, slow jump and mistake at last, stayed on well inside final furlong

Captain Cattistock 16.30 Doncaster 18 Pts Win @ 1\2 (bog)

Useful hurdler/chaser who was holding his form well this season prior to an underwhelming hunter debut at Taunton 43 days ago. Should bounce back and take all the beating. 

[Xtc12]

On 2/19/2020 at 12:05 AM, Xtc12 said:

Captain Cattistock 16.30 Doncaster 18 Pts Win @ 1\2 (bog)

UR - led, clear when reminder after 14th, niggled along and 1 length ahead when wandered and unseated rider 2 out

Salsaretta 13.55 Thurles 19 Pts Win @ 1\6 (bog)

8/11, career best when winning 5-runner minor event chase at Punchestown (20f, good to soft) 51 days ago, impressively. Longer trip sure to suit and could be a very good staying chaser in the making. 

[Xtc12]

12 hours ago, Xtc12 said:

Salsaretta 13.55 Thurles 19 Pts Win @ 1\6 (bog)

1st @ 1\5 - made all, still travelling smoothly straight, soon asserted and stayed on well run-in, easily

Grand Roi 14.00 Warwick 19 Pts Win @ 4\6 (bog)

Wincanton bumper winner for new yard in December and landed the odds with ease on hurdling debut at Fakenham last month. The one to beat. 

[Xtc12]

On 2/20/2020 at 11:58 PM, Xtc12 said:

Grand Roi 14.00 Warwick 19 Pts Win @ 4\6 (bog)

1st @ 4\6 - made all, wandered slightly into 3rd, drew clear from last (normal 2 out), easily

Ferny Hollow 17.12 Fairyhouse 19 Pts Win @ 2\5 (bog)

Twice-raced maiden. 8/13, second of 10 in bumper at Leopardstown (16f, soft) 56 days ago, clear of rest. Hood on first time. Sets a good standard. 

[Xtc12]

12 hours ago, Xtc12 said:

Ferny Hollow 17.12 Fairyhouse 19 Pts Win @ 2\5 (bog)

1st @ 2\5 -  held up towards rear, some headway on outer after halfway, 4th travelling well entering straight, smooth progress to lead 1 1/2f out, stayed on well, very easily

Grand Sancy 14.50 Fontwell 19 Pts Win @ 2\13 (bog)

Smart type over hurdles who has been far from disgraced pitched in to hot company over fences and should have no trouble getting off the mark in calmer waters. 

[Xtc12]

21 hours ago, Xtc12 said:

Grand Sancy 14.50 Fontwell 19 Pts Win @ 2\13 (bog)

1st @ 1\5 -  mostly jumped well and clear most of way, hit 11th, pushed out run-in, unchallenged

Update

Average Stake : 7.79

[Xtc12]

Do Wanna Know 14.15 Catterick 19 Pts Win @ 1\16 (bog)

Made a successful debut in 15-runner novice at Huntingdon in November, then shaped with plenty of encouragement before falling 2 out at Newbury later that month. Can't be opposed facing sole rival. 

[Xtc12]

22 hours ago, Xtc12 said:

Do Wanna Know 14.15 Catterick 19 Pts Win @ 1\16 (bog)

Surprise 1st @ 1\16 -  made all from sole rival, pushed clear before last, kept on, readily

Nanabelle 13.25 Market Rasen 19 Pts Win @ 4\9 (bog)

Unbeaten in 2 juvenile hurdles in France and picked up by top connections since, so firmly expected to maintain her unbeaten record before stepping up in grade. 

 

[Xtc12]

14 hours ago, Xtc12 said:

Nanabelle 13.25 Market Rasen 19 Pts Win @ 4\9 (bog)

5th - raced keenly, mostly tracked leader, hit 4 out, driven when mistake and lost place 2 out, soon beaten, weakened flat

Think this knocked the stuffing out of it for this year.

Eritage 14.22 Taunton 20 Pts WIn @ 1\4 (bog)

Has some strong form and he took off here before Christmas, winning extended 2m novice hurdle then a good second under a penalty behind a useful prospect. The one to beat up in trip.

 

[Xtc12]

Non Runner yesterday

Monte Cristo 14.45 Newbury 20 Pts WIn @ 1\5 (bog)

Fairly useful form in France, winning at Auteuil in October. Failed to meet market expectations when fourth starting out for Nicky Henderson last month but has sights lowered here.

[Xtc12]

23 hours ago, Xtc12 said:

Monte Cristo 14.45 Newbury 20 Pts WIn @ 1\5 (bog)

1st @ 1\5 -  held up 3rd, went 2nd approaching 1st, led and hit 2nd, increased tempo next, shaken up and stayed on well from last (normal 2 out)

Stratagem 13.37 Kelso 20 Pts WIn @ 4\9 (bog)

Ready Auteuil winner on hurdling bow and subsequently bought for €260,000. 11/10, encouraging third after 4 months off in 2m Bangor novice for new yard. Tongue strap on now and looks the one to beat. 

[Xtc12]

13 hours ago, Xtc12 said:

Stratagem 13.37 Kelso 20 Pts WIn @ 4\9 (bog)

1st @ 4\9 -  made all and clear most of way, in no danger when ridden between last 2, edged right flat, unchallenged

Strong Glance 14.40 Sedgefield 20 Pts Win @ 1\2 (bog)

Useful dual bumper winner who left previous hurdling efforts behind when forging clear to make a winning handicap debut at Market Rasen in January. Should have no trouble following up.

[Xtc12]

On 2/29/2020 at 10:22 PM, Xtc12 said:

Strong Glance 14.40 Sedgefield 20 Pts Win @ 1\2 (bog)

2nd -  always chasing winner, every chance before 2 out, soon pushed along and beaten, eased flat

AccordingtoGino 14.00 Wetherby 21 Pts Win @ 4\9 (bog)

Irish point winner who has shown fairly useful form over hurdles, fading but managing a place again at Uttoxeter (23.3f, heavy) last time. This looks his easiest task to date. 

 

[Xtc12]

On 3/2/2020 at 9:08 AM, Xtc12 said:

AccordingtoGino 14.00 Wetherby 21 Pts Win @ 4\9 (bog)

1st @ 4\9 -  made all, driven clear before 3 out, ridden after next, all out towards finish, held on

Mayo Star 14.20 Newcastle 21 Pts Win @ 1\3 (bog)

Bumper winner who returned from 18-month absence to land 20.5f Ayr novice hurdle (heavy) in January. Excellent chance of another win. 

[Xtc12]

13 hours ago, Xtc12 said:

Mayo Star 14.20 Newcastle 21 Pts Win @ 1\3 (bog)

1st @ 1\3 -  held up behind leaders on inside, closed before 6th, led approaching last, clear flat, easily

Wishing and Hoping 16.50 Catterick 21 Pts Win @ 2\5 (bog)

Formerly a useful chaser for Alan King who was unbeaten in points and made an impressive winning return at Taunton. Undone by Alcala at Haydock last time but this looks much easier.

[Xtc12]

On 3/3/2020 at 11:22 PM, Xtc12 said:

Wishing and Hoping 16.50 Catterick 21 Pts Win @ 2\5 (bog)

1st @ 1\2 - jumped well, made all, drew readily clear from 3 out, in no danger after, easily

** Today is the day that will make or break this for the season

Lastin Memories 14.50 Carlisle 21 Pts Win @ 7\4 (bog)

Winning hurdler who confirmed opening chase promise to score at Kelso (17f, blinkered) in January, his jumping looking assured. Step up in trip will hold no fears and respected from 6 lb higher.

[Xtc12]

10 hours ago, Xtc12 said:

Lastin Memories 14.50 Carlisle 21 Pts Win @ 7\4 (bog)

4th - chased leader until 8th, 2nd again when pecked 5 out, lost 2nd when slow 3 out, stayed on same pace, not fluent last 

Martha brae 14.15 Ffos Las 22 Pts Win @ Evens (bog)

Bumper winner who opened her account over hurdles in a mares' novice at Fontwell (19.2f) in December. Better form when runner-up twice since and will benefit from a return to 2½m. Cheekpieces added. 

 

[Xtc12]

On 3/5/2020 at 11:08 PM, Xtc12 said:

Martha brae 14.15 Ffos Las 22 Pts Win @ Evens (bog)

2nd - led, strongly challenged after 3 out, headed after next, mistake last, rallied closing stages, kept on well under pressure

Energumene 14.50 Gowran Park 23 Pts win @ 2/7 (bog)

Confirmed debut promise when winning14-runner bumper (8/11) at Thurles (16f, good to soft) 57 days ago, shaken up to assert. Nice prospect for jumping. 

[Xtc12]

13 hours ago, Xtc12 said:

Energumene 14.50 Gowran Park 23 Pts win @ 2/7 (bog)

1st @ 2\7 - made all, travelling smoothly approaching straight, soon went on, stayed onwell, very easily.

Beacon Edge 15.45 Naas 23 Pts Win @ 11\8 (bog)

Smart form in Bumpers and duly landed the odds on return/debut in this sphere at Punchestown (2m Soft) in October. Improved when close second in C&D Grade 2 4 months later. Likely more to come.

[Xtc12]

23 hours ago, Xtc12 said:

Beacon Edge 15.45 Naas 23 Pts Win @ 11\8 (bog)

2nd -  tracked leader in 2nd, ridden and improved to lead at last, strongly pressed inside final furlong, headed and no extra last strides

Iconic Muddle 14.00 Plumpton 24 Pts Win @ 8\13 (bog)

Has made a bright start over hurdles, doing little wrong in defeat. Good second to the classy Cat Tiger over C&D at the start of the year before 2 good efforts in handicaps. The one to beat.

[Xtc12]

22 hours ago, Xtc12 said:

Iconic Muddle 14.00 Plumpton 24 Pts Win @ 8\13 (bog)

1st @ 8\13 -  chased leader, led 4 out, not fluent 3 out, clear from next, easily

Benie Des Dieux 16.10 Cheltenham 24 Pts Win @ 4\7 (bog)

Successful on all 8 completed starts for yard, her only defeat coming when falling at last with this race at her mercy 12 months ago. Faces a tough opponent in Honeysuckle but still the one to beat.

[Xtc12]

On 3/9/2020 at 8:28 PM, Xtc12 said:

Benie Des Dieux 16.10 Cheltenham 24 Pts Win @ 4\7 (bog)

2nd -  tracked leaders, switched outside 2 out, soon poised to challenge, every chance last, ridden and kept on under pressure flat, always just held

Three days left of a terrible year  

Tiger Roll 16.10 Cheltenham 25 Pts Win @ 10\11 (bog)

Has successfully used this race as a stepping stone en route to winning last 2 Grand Nationals. Seeking fifth Festival success overall and should be spot-on following reappearance spin over hurdles. 

[Xtc12]

On 3/10/2020 at 10:20 PM, Xtc12 said:

Tiger Roll 16.10 Cheltenham 25 Pts Win @ 10\11 (bog)

2nd -  mid-division, headway and in touch halfway, went 2nd after 25th, driven and unable to quicken after 2 out, ridden and kept on under pressure before last, weakened flat

Giovanni Change 15.15 Hexham 26 Pts Win @ 1\2 (bog)

Won first of his 2 starts in bumpers (for Emmet Mullins) and has made a very encouraging start over hurdles, with two third placed efforts in novice/maiden at Wetherby. The one to beat.

Edited March 11, 2020 by Xtc12
Wrong Selection

[PunterPhil]

I recommend to never bet shorter than 6/4 because its proven difficult to make a profit.  That's just my anecdotal way.

[Sir Puntalot]

 to Punters Lounge @PunterPhil   

Not wanting to hijack @Xtc12's thread here, but I think it's all relative. If you're talking about a 6/4 shot in a low grade race, then yeah it's a much bigger risk as the consistency won't be there. However, if you'd been offered 6/4 on Frankel every time he ran, I guess you would have ripped that bookmakers arm off.  

[PunterPhil]

Thanks for the welcome mate. I'm new here and just finding my feet!  Look out for my posts in the Cheltenham thread later. I will hopefully post some good winners for the site.
 

[Xtc12]

22 hours ago, Xtc12 said:

Giovanni Change 15.15 Hexham 26 Pts Win @ 1\2 (bog)

Non Runner

And last one for the year (thank God)

Coole Well 13.55 Fakenham 26 Pts Win @ 6\4 (bog)

Plumpton novice hurdle winner over 2m last season who has taken well to fences with a trio of runner-up efforts. Brushed aside at Ludlow but obvious claims back over hurdles in a small field here. 

[MCLARKE]

19 hours ago, PunterPhil said:

I recommend to never bet shorter than 6/4 because its proven difficult to make a profit.  That's just my anecdotal way.

I fully support this recommendation. The more people that refuse to back short priced horses then the better value they will be for me to make excellent profits.