When can a system be considered to have "proven" itself ?

[Datapunter]

In another thread i made a comment that you cannot draw any meaningful conclusion about a betting system based on having watched football matches for only a few months. You need a substantial number of bets before you can say a system has "proven" itself and you can commit cash to it. Prompting these questions.

Datapunter,you appear to have answered a question I asked on another thread a few weeks ago re.when exactly a system is said to be "proven". Could you please confirm that its proven after 500 games? Is this something that is generally agreed upon?

If so,presumably that means that,at the present rate,we will have to wait til about 2016 to find out if this works before we all lump on!? I spose the bookie offering the best prices on the double that day will get a big surprise:)!! also,in november 2016,what roi will the bets have had to have made before its deemed proven? would 1% be enough or is there a minimum roi required after 500 games? ( Question relating to thread: http://forum.punterslounge.com/f21/safe-multibet-system-122797/ )

How many people in the history of PL have actually achieved this 500 game proof and do we know what happened afterwards ie did the prices move on the week after the system was proven? If not,then does anyone have an explanation why not?

So how many bets do you need before you can say "right, let's go for it." ? Nice enough subject to merit a thread of its own.

[Grex]

Re: When can a system be considered to have "proven" itself ? There are probably some very complex statistical probability theories that can give the answer to this question. I am not in this league, so I will give my opinion based on logic and common sense (assuming I have any :p). I don't think a system can ever be "proven". The best you can hope for is a high level of confidence in the system. For me, consistency is the most important issue. If a system is showing yields that go up and down like a fiddler's elbow, then it should be treated with caution. The system should also show this degree of consistency over at least two seasons (with any system, you can get the occasional "rogue" season where results go out-of-line). As for the minimum number of bets..... I don't think this is particularly important. Obviously a system cannot be "proven" based on good consistency over two seasons, but with only 20 bets. I would say that a figure of around 250-300 should give a reasonable level of confidence in any system.